Fundamental & Technical Outlook Jumat 06 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf
Page 1 of 6
MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Bursa Asia terapresiasi untuk ke-8 kalinya secara berturut-turut pada hari Kamis, didukung oleh menguatnya Wall Street dan juga rebound pada harga minyak yang mendorong naiknya saham energi dan sumber daya. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik lebih dari 1%, memperluas reli yang membukukan kenaikan 2% dalam pembukaan tahun 2017 ini. India dan Hong Kong pimpin kenaikan indeks, sementara Nikkei Jepang turun 0,3% menyusul menguatnya yen atas dolar. Saham Filipina terkerek ke level tertinggi selama hampir 2 bulan dan saham Singapura naik 1,3%. Adapun Wall Street menguat di hari Rabu sebelumnya setelah rilis FOMC minutes dimana dewan kebijakan AS menaksir
akan terjadi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih cepat berkat paket stimulus pemerintahan Donald Trump. Eropa: Saham Eropa bergerak dekat level tertingginya saat ini pada hari Kamis, sementara indeks saham Inggris tembus level tertinggi yang baru dipicu naiknya saham pengembang properti dan pertambangan. Indeks STOXX 600, yang pekan ini mendaki ke level tertinggi 1 tahun, tercatat naik 0,1%, sementara indeks FTSE 100 juga naik 0,1% pasca catat all-time high di 7211,96 poin. AS & Global Markets: Harga ekuitas global mengabaikan pelemahan Wall Street untuk ditutup menguat setelah tembus level tertinggi sejak medio 2015 pada hari Kamis, didorong oleh rilis data ekonomi Cina yang menambah optimisme terhadap pertumbuhan global dan inflasi. Dolar terkoreksi terhadap sejumlah rival utamanya setelah data inflasi dan pekerjaan gagal untuk membalik downtrend yang diikuti penguatan tajam yuan Cina. Yield Treasury AS turun menyusul investor memburu aset aman resiko jelang pelaksanaan pemerintahan Trump. Data kemarin menunjukkan pertumbuhan sektor jasa Cina terakselerasi ke level tertinggi 17 bulan pada Desember. Sementara data ADP National Employment semalam kurang memberikan dukungan positif setelah dirilis di bawah ekspektasi di bulan Desember meskipun kondisi pasar tenaga kerja AS masih solid. Harga minyak naik setelah Arab Saudi dilaporkan telah pangkas produksi minyaknya.
ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2016 HIGH 2017 HIGH 2017 LOW 2016 LOW RECORD LOW
.N225
.KS200
.HSI
.DJI
/.SPX
/.SSEC
38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 19592.90 (21/Dec/16) 19615.40 (05/Jan/2017)
295.51 (03/May/11) 264.42 (21/Dec/16) 263.27 (04/Jan/217)
31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16) 22483.01 (05/Jan/2017)
19987.63 (20/Dec/16) 19987.63 (20/Dec/16) 19956.14 (04/Jan/2017)
2277.53 (13/Dec/16) 2277.53 (13/Dec/16) 2272.82 (04/Jan/2017)
6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 3168.50210 (05/Jan/2017)
19277.93 (04/Jan/2017) 14864.01 (24/Jun/16)
258.64 (02/Jan/2017) 222.92 (20/Jan/16) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)
21883.82 (03/Jan/2017) 18278.80 (12/Feb/16)
19775.93 (03/Jan/2017) 15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)
2245.13 (03/Jan/2017) 1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)
3105.30850 (03/Jan/2017) 2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)
85.25 (06/Jul/50)
58.61 (31/Aug/67)
Closing Prices – 05 January 2017 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=
19899.29 2269.00 5487.935 115.40 1181.79
CHANGE
42.87/ 0.21% 1.75 / 0.08% 10.930/ 0.20% 1.84/ 1.57% 13.36 / 1.12%
CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)
19520.69 261.98 22456.69 3165.54540 53.76
CHANGE
73.47/0.37% 1.14/0.43% 322.22/1.46% 6.75140/0.21% 0.50 / 0.94%
DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Jumat 06 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 6
WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE
WIB
CTY
Mon/02-Jan-2017
07:00 07:00 07:00 08:00 08:00 All Day All Day 07:30 14:00 15:30 21:45 22:00 22:00 22:00 22:00 22:00 04:00 06:00 07:30 08:45 21:45 21:45 02:00 15:30 19:30 20:15 20:30 20:30 20:30 21:45 21:45 22:00 23:00 23:00 23:00 07:00 07:30 07:30 07:30 08:45 15:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 22:00 22:00 22:00 22:00 22:00
KR KR KR CN CN US JP KR KR HK US US US US US US KR KR JP CN US US US HK US US US US US US US US US US US JP AU AU AU CN HK US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US
Tue/03-Jan-2017
Wed/04-Jan-2017
Thu/05-Jan-2017
Fri/06-Jan-2017
INDICATORS
PER
Export Growth Prelim* Dec Import Growth Prelim* Dec Trade Balance Prelim Dec NBS Non-Mfg PMI* Dec NBS Manufacturing PMI Dec Bank Holiday/New Year’s Day (Observed) Bank Holiday/New Year’s Day/Exchange Holiday Nikkei Markit Mfg PMI Dec Bank of Korea Policy Meeting Minutes Retail Sales YY Nov Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Dec ISM Manufacturing PMI Dec ISM Mfg Prices Paid Dec ISM Manuf New Orders Idx Dec ISM Manuf Employment Idx Dec Construction Spending MM Nov Foreign Reserves Dec Current Account Balance Nov Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Dec Caixin Mfg PMI Final Dec ISM-New York Index Dec ISM NY Biz Conditions Dec U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from Dec. 13-14 FOMC Meeting Nikkei PMI Dec Challenger Layoffs Dec ADP National Employment Dec Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e Continuing Jobless Claims w/e Markit Services PMI Final Dec Markit Composite Final PMI Dec ISM N-Mfg PMI Dec EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e Overtime Pay Nov Trade Balance G&S (A$)* Nov Goods/Services Imports Nov Goods/Services Exports Nov Caixin Services PMI Dec Foreign Reserves Dec International Trade MM $ Nov Non-farm Payrolls Dec Private Payrolls Dec Manufacturing Payrolls Dec Government Payrolls Dec Unemployment Rate Dec Average Hourly Earnings MM Dec Average Weekly Hours All Employees Dec Labor Force Participation Rate Dec U6 Underemployment Rate Dec Factory Orders MM Nov Factory Orders Ex-Trans MM Nov Durable Goods Orders Rev MM Nov Durables Ex-Transportation Rev MM Nov Nondef Cap Ex-Air Rev MM Nov
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREV.
6.4% 7.3% 7.0% 54.5 51.4
6.4% 6.8% N/A N/A 51.5
2.5% 9.3% 8.20b 54.70 51.7
49.4
N/A
48.0
-5.5% 54.3 54.7 65.5 60.2 53.1 0.9% 371.10b 7.14b 52.4 51.9 727.4 63.8
-3.0% 54.2 53.5 55.5 N/A 52.5 0.6% N/A N/A N/A 50.9 N/A N/A
-2.9% 54.2 53.2 54.5 53.0 52.3 0.5% 371.99b 6.01b 51.9 50.9 720.5 52.5
50.3 33.627k 153.0k 235k 256.75k 2.112m 53.9 54.1 57.2 -7.051m 10.051m 8.307m
N/A N/A 170k 260k 260k N/A 53.4 N/A 56.6 -2.152m 1.100m 1.786m N/A -550m N/A N/A N/A N/A -42.5b 178k 170k 0k 7k 4.7% 0.3% 34.4h N/A N/A -2.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
49.5 26.936k 216k 265k 263.00k 2.102m 53.4 53.7 57.2 0.614m -1.881m -1.593m -1.4% -1541m 2.0% 1.0% 53.1 385.00b -42.6b 178k 156k -4k 22k 4.6% -0.1% 34.4h 62.7% 9.3% 2.7% 0.8% -4.6% 0.5% 0.9%
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
REV.
0.6%
215.0k 263k 262.5k 2.096m
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Jumat 06 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 3 of 6
Sat/07-Jan-2017
23:00 01:00
CN US
FX Reserves (Monthly)* Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count
Dec Jan 6
N/A
3.052t
(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset-@her1en)
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Jumat 06 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 4 of 6
SSIamH7 (Nikkei Mar Futures) – Last Trading Date: 09 Mar. 2017
Area 19600 masih efektif meredam reli Namun daily trend masih cenderung bullish Short-term support berada di sekitar 19120 – 18925 Resistance berikutnya di level puncak 20035 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
VOLUME
05 Jan SSIpmH7 05 Jan SSIamH7 04 Jan SSIpmH7 04 Jan SSIamH7 03 Jan SSIpmH7 03 Jan SSIamH7 02 Jan SSIpmH7 02 Jan SSIamH7 30 Dec SSIpmH7 30 Dec SSIamH7
19445 19615 19615 19290 19245 19215
19550 19650 19665 19635 19420 19255 H H 19125 19170
19365 19455 19520 19260 19170 19140 O O 19000 18970
185 195 145 375 250 115 L L 125 200
19430 19470 19645 19600 19275 19225 I I 19000 19070
--19470 --19600 --19225 D D --19070
40 130 45 375 50 155 A A 70 5
0.21 0.66 0.23 1.95 0.26 0.81 Y Y 0.37 0.03
27791 54123 20419 60530 13399 7069
19080 19040
WEEKLY
JANUARY 2017
DECEMBER 2016
9734 41787
2017
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
19665 (04/Jan)
19140 (03/Jan)
19665 (04/Jan)
19140 (03/Jan)
19615 (20/Dec)
18225 (05/Dec)
19665 (04/Jan)
19140 (03/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
20565
High 19/Aug/2015
20340
High 20/Aug/2015
20035
Peak level
19890
High 18/Dec/2015 (Reaction high)
19365
Reaction low (1-H chart)
19140
Reaction low (1-H chart)
18925
Reaction low (1-H chart)
18760
Reaction low (1-H chart)
BUY
19405
SELL
----
STOP LOSS
19450
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
19550 19675
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Jumat 06 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 5 of 6
KSH7 (Kospi Mar Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Mar. 2017
Retracement dekati short-term support di 262 Minor trendline support di sekitar 260 Waspadai RSI di zona overbought (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
05 Jan 04 Jan 03 Jan 02 Jan 30 Dec 29 Dec
263.05 263.00 261.75 260.05
263.35 263.55 263.20 261.90 H 260.35
262.30 262.80 261.35 259.25 O 259.25
1.05 0.75 1.85 2.65 L 1.10
262.65 263.35 163.20 261.20 I 260.05
262.65 263.35 263.20 261.20 D 260.05
0.70 0.15 2.00 1.15 A 0.35
0.27 0.06 0.77 0.44 Y 0.13
259.90
WEEKLY
JANUARY 2017
DECEMBER 2016
VOLUME 86761 72336 89599 81174 74134
2017
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
263.55 (04/Jan)
259.25 (02/Jan)
263.55 (04/Jan)
259.25 (02/Jan)
260.95 (21/Dec)
251.45 (05/Dec)
263.55 (04/Jan)
259.25 (02/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION 269.60
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
High 04/May/2015 (Reaction high)
267.75
High 06/May/2015
266.35
High 26/May/2015 (Reaction high)
264.15
High 27/May/2015
261.35
Low 03/Jan/2017
258.45
Reaction low (1-H chart)
256.50
Low 15/Dec/2016
255.25
Reaction low (1-H chart)
BUY
262.00
SELL
----
STOP LOSS
261.25
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
264.30 265.25
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Jumat 06 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 6 of 6
HSIF7 (Hang Seng Jan Futures) – Exp. Date: 26 January 2017
Rebound berkembang, hadapi area resistance di 22584 (38.2% retracement of wave 24374-21477) Area support krusial di 22100 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
05 Jan 04 Jan 03 Jan 02 Jan 30 Dec (HSIF7) 29 Dec (HSIF7) 28 Dec (HSIF7)
22254 22175 21920
22494 22233 22195 H 22056 21799 21800
22207 22058 21863 O 21813 21510 21497
287 175 332 L 243 289 303
22478 22099 22145 I 21964 21789 21731
22484 22099 22145 D 21962 21789 21731
379 46 183 A 175 58 180
1.72 0.21 0.83 Y 0.80 0.27 0.84
21831 21573 21516
WEEKLY
JANUARY 2017
DECEMBER 2016
VOLUME 86436 77437 78680 74242 78579 72108
2017
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
22494 (05/Jan)
21863 (03/Jan)
22494 (05/Jan)
21863 (03/Jan)
23146 (08/Dec)
21477 (23/Dec)
22494 (05/Jan)
21863 (03/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
23286
High 01/Nov/2016 (Reaction high)
23146
High 08/Dec/2016 (Reaction high)
22882
Reaction high ( 4-H chart)
22648
High 14/Dec/2016 (Reaction high)
22325
Reaction low (4-H chart)
22058
Reaction low (4-H chart)
21863
Reaction low (4-H chart)
21477
Low 23/Dec/2016 (Reaction low)
BUY
22380
SELL
----
STOP LOSS
22300
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
22525 22655
