ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Senin 15 Agustus 2016

ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf

Page 1 of 6

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK  Asia: Bursa Asia menguat di hari Jumat, setelah naiknya harga minyak membantu mendorong Wall Street ke rekor tertinggi, sementara bursa Cina menguat oleh harapan tambahan stimulus. Indeks MSCI Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,2% dan catat kenaikan mingguan 2%. Saham Cina melanjutkan penguatannya setelah fixed asset investment, retail sales dan industrial output kesemuanya menguat namun masih di bawah ekspektasi. Indeks CSI300 naik 1,9% ke 3294,23 yang merupakan level penutupan tertinggi sejak awal Januari sedangkan Shanghai Composite Index naik 1,6% ke 3050,67. Dalam sepekan, CSI300 naik 2,8% dan SSEC naik 2,5%. Indeks Nikkei ditutup naik 1,1% menyusul melemahnya yen dan catat kenaikan mingguan 4,1%, sementara saham Hong Kong naik 0,8% ke level tertinggi 9 bulan dan catat kenaikan mingguan 2,8%. Adapaun saham Australia berakhir menguat 0,4%.

 Eropa: Indeks saham Eropa terkonsolidasi pasca tembus level tertinggi 7 pekan yang baru pada hari Jumat, dengan penurunan pada saham pertambangan mengimbangi kenaikan pada sejumlah perusahaan seperti A.P. Moller-Maersk berkat update laporan keuangannya. Sekitar 88% dari perusahaan dalam STOXX 600 telah memberikan laporan keuangannya, dimana 61% dirilis sama atau lebih baik dari perkiraan. Indeks STOXX Europe 600 turun 0,2% setelah menembus level tertinggi 7 pekan di sesi sebelumnya, mengganti seluruh kerugian pasca Brexit. Indeks catat kenaikan mingguan 1,4% dan membukukan kinerja mingguan terbaiknya sejak medio Juli. Sedangkan bursa Inggris capai level tertinggi 14 bulan, meskipun akhirnya ditutup datar, ditengah anjloknya saham pertambangan.

 AS & Global Markets: Rilis data ekonomi AS yang kurang memuaskan telah menekan dolar dan juga yield Treasury pada hari Jumat dan menekan harga saham, namun kerugian Wall Street mampu dibatasi dan berlanjut menguat berkat naiknya harga minyak dan Nasdaq naik tipis dekat rekor tertinggi untuk kedua kalinya secara berturut-turut. Short covering mampu membantu dorong reli minyak. Penjualan ritel AS diluar dugaan datar di bulan Juli sementara data lainnya menunjukkan PPI catat penurunan tertajamnya dalam hampir 1 tahun di bulan Juli. Menurunnya belanja konsumen dan inflasi yang rendah di AS mengisyaratkan The Fed belum akan menaikkan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat. Dolar terkoreksi 0,1% terhadap sejumlah rivalnya.

 Weekahead: FOMC minutes dari sidang The Fed 26-27 Juli 2016 akan dicermati investor di pekan ini, yang diharapkan akan memberikan titik terang mengenai seberapa besar peluang kenaikan suku bunga di bulan September dan Desember mendatang. Namun dengan kondisi bank sentral lainnya yang cenderung melonggarkan kebijakan moneternya, seperti ECB, BOJ dan BoE, maka hal ini nampaknya akan membuat The Fed lebih berhati-hati dalam mengambil keputusan untuk menaikkan suku bunganya. Data inflasi dan tenaga kerja Inggris akan dicermati untuk melihat seberapa besar tekanan yang dihadapi Inggris pasca memutuskan Brexit. Sedangkan dari Jepang akan dirilis data PDB-Q2 yang nampaknya masih akan menunjukkan pertumbuhan tahunan yang lemah, hanya 0,7%, kurang dari setengah dari pertumbuhan PDB-Q1 yang mencapai 1,9%.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2015 HIGH 2016 HIGH 2016 LOW 2015 LOW RECORD LOW

.N225

.KS200

.HSI

.DJI

/.SPX

/.SSEC

38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 18951.12 (04/Jan/16)

295.51 (03/May/11) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 257.88 (12/Aug/16)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 22816.75 (12/Aug/16)

18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18638.34 (11/Aug/16)

2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2188.45 (11/Aug/16)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16)

14864.01 (24/Jun/16) 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015)

222.92 (20/Jan/16) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

Closing Prices – 12 Agustus 2016 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=

18576.47 2184.05 5232.895 101.29 1102.19

CHANGE     

37.05/ 0.20% 1.74 / 0.08% 4.496 / 0.09% 0.66 / 0.65% 5.70 / 0.52%

CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)

16919.92 256.17 22766.91 3051.01910 44.69

CHANGE     

184.80/1.10% 0.01/0.0% 186.36/0.83% 48.38150/1.61% 1.20 / 2.76%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.


ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 6

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE

WIB

CTY

MON/08-Aug

06.50 06.50 09.00 09.00 09.00 21:00 N/A 08:30 08:30 08:30 08:30 08:30 17:00 19:30 19:30 21:00 21:00

JP JP CN CN CN US JP AU AU CN CN CN US US US US US

06:00 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 07:30 10:00 21:00 21.30 01.00 19:30 19:30 19:30 19.30 19.30 N/A 04:00 04:00 09.00 09.00 09.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.30 15:30 15:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00

KR JP JP JP JP AU KR US US US US US US US US KR KR KR CN CN CN CN CN CN CN HK HK US US US US US US US US US US

TUE/09-Aug

WED/10-Aug

THU/11-Aug

FRI/12-Aug

INDICATORS

PER

ACTUAL

Bank Lending Y/Y Current Account NSA Exports YY Imports YY* Trade Balance USD* Employment Trends* Economy Watchers Poll NAB Business Conditions NAB Business Confidence PPI YY* CPI YY* CPI MM* NFIB Business Optimism Labor Costs Prelim Productivity Prelim Wholesale Inventories MM Wholesale Sales MM

Jul Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Q2 Q2 Jun Jun

2.1 974.4 -4.4 -12.5 52.308 128.28 45.1 8 4 -1.7 1.8 0.2 94.6 2.0 -0.5 0.3 1.9

N/A 1056.7 -3.0 -7.0 47.60 N/A N/A N/A N/A -2.0 1.8 0.1 N/A 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.4

% B % % % IND IND IND IND % % % IND % % % %

2.0 1809.1 -4.8 -8.4 48.11 128.1 41.2 12 6 -2.6 1.9 -0.1 94.50 4.5 -0.6 0.0 0.5

Unemployment Rate* Corp Goods Price MM* Corp Goods Price YY* Machinery Orders MM* Machinery Orders YY* Consumer Sentiment L-Money Supply Growth JOLTS Job Openings* EIA Weekly Crude Stocks Federal Budget Import Prices MM Export Prices MM Initial Jobless Claims Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. Continued Jobless Claims Bank of Korea Base Rate Export Price Growth YY* Import Price Growth YY* Urban Investment (ytd) Y/Y Industrial Output Y/Y* Retail Sales Y/Y* M2 Money Supply YY* New Yuan Loans* Outstanding Loan Growth* FDI (YTD)* GDP QQ* GDP YY* PPI Final Demand YY PPI Final Demand MM PPI exFood/Energy YY PPI exFood/Energy MM Retail Sales MM Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Business Inventories MM U Mich Sentiment Prelim U Mich Conditions Prelim U Mich Expectations Prelim

Jul Jul Jul Jun Jun Aug Jun Jun w/e Jul Jul Jul w/e w/e w/e Aug Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Q2 Q2 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jun Aug Aug Aug

3.6 0 -3.9 8.3 -0.9 2.0 7.3 5.624 1.055 -113.0 0.1 0.2 266 262.75 2.155 1.25 -7.5 -7.1 8.1 6.0 10.2 10.2 463.6 12.9 4.3 1.6 1.7 -0.2 -0.4 0.7 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.2 90.4 106.1 80.3

N/A -0.1 -4.0 3.1 -4.2 N/A N/A 5.574 -1.025 -113.0 -0.3 0.0 265 N/A 2.140 1.25 N/A N/A 8.8 6.1 10.5 11.2 800.0 13.8 N/A N/A N/A 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 91.5 109.0 78.1

% % % % % % % M M B % % K K M % % % % % % % B % % % % % % % % % % % IND IND IND

3.6 -0.1 -4.2 -1.4 -11.7 -3.0 7.1 5.500 1.413 6.0 0.2 0.8 269 260.25 2.138 1.25 -4.9 -4.9 9.0 6.2 10.6 11.8 1380.0 14.3 5.10 -0.4 0.8 0.3 0.5 1.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.2 90 109.0 77.8

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

FORECAST

LAST

REV

127.89

-0.2

0.7

5.514

0.6 267 259.75 2.141

0.8 0.9



DATE

WIB

CTY

15~16 Aug MON/15-Aug

6:30 6:50 6:50 11:30 11:30 19:30 21:00 : : : 3:00 3:00 3:00 3:00 6:30 8:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 20:15 20:15 20:15 22:30 23:30 8:30 8:30 21:30 21:30 21:30 21:30 0:00 1:00 6:50 6:50 6:50 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:30 15:30 19:30 19:30 19.30 19.30 21:00 3:00 4:00 4:00 6:00

AU JP JP JP JP US US KR KR KR US US US US AU AU US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US AU AU US US US US US US JP JP JP CN AU AU AU AU HK US US US US US US KR KR JP

New Motor Vehicle Sales Jul GDP QQ Q2 GDP QQ Annualised Q2 Industrial Output Rev* Jun Capacity Util Idx Chg MM Jun NY Fed Manufacturing Aug NAHB Housing Market Indx Aug Export Growth Revised Jul Import Growth Revised Jul Trade Balance Revised Jul Net L-T Flows,Exswaps Jun Foreign Buying, T-Bonds Jun Overall Net Capital Flow Jun Net L-T Flows,Incl.Swaps Jun ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (AUG 14) RBA Aug. Meeting Minutes CPI MM, SA Jul CPI YY, NSA Jul Core CPI MM, SA Jul Core CPI YY, NSA Jul CPI Index, NSA Jul Core CPI Index, SA Jul Real Weekly Earnings MM Jul Building Permits: Number Jul Build Permits: Change MM Jul Housing Starts Number MM Jul House Starts MM: Change Jul Industrial Output MM Jul Capacity Utilization MM Jul Manuf Output MM Jul Cleveland Fed CPI Jul Fed's Lockhart Speaks to Rotary Club of Knoxville Wage Price Index QQ* Q2 Wage Price Index YY* Q2 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories w/e DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory w/e DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories w/e DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory w/e Fed's Bullard Speaks in St. Louis U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from July 26-27 FOMC Meeting Exports YY* Jul Imports YY* Jul Trade Balance Total Yen* Jul China House Prices YY Jul Employment* Jul Full Time Employment* Jul Participation Rate* Jul Unemployment Rate* Jul Unemployment Rate Jul Philly Fed Business Indx Aug Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. w/e Continued Jobless Claims w/e Leading Index Chg MM* Jul Fed's Williams Speaks in Anchorage PPI Growth YY* Jul PPI Growth* Jul Reuters Tankan DI Aug

0:00

US

Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count

TUE/16-Aug

WED/17-Aug

THU/18-Aug

FRI/19-Aug

SAT/20-Aug

INDICATORS

PER

ACTUAL

w/e


FORECAST

LAST

N/A 0.2 0.7 N/A N/A 2.0 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

% % % % % IND IND % % B B B B B

3.1 0.5 1.9 1.9 -2.4 0.55 59 -10.2 -14 7.8 41.1 -18.3 -11 25.8

0.0 0.9 0.2 2.3 240.8 N/A N/A 1.16 0.6 1.18 -0.8 0.2 75.6 0.2 N/A

% % % % IND IND % M % M % % % % %

0.2 1 0.2 2.3 241.04 247.5 -0.1 1.153 1.5 1.189 4.8 0.6 75.4 0.4 0.2

0.5 2.0

% %

0.4 2.1

-14 -20.6 283.7 N/A 11 N/A 64.9 5.8 N/A 1.5 N/A N/A N/A 0.2

% % B % K K % % % IND K K M %

-7.4 -18.8 692.8 7.3 7.9 38.4 64.9 5.8 3.4 -2.9 266 262.75 2.155 0.3

N/A N/A N/A

% % IND

-2.7 0.2 3

n

REV



SSIamU6 (Nikkei Sep Futures) – Last Trading Date: 12 Sep. 2016

 Reversal terjadi setelah membentuk Double Top di 16930  Target downtick di sekitar 16650 – 16550 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

12 Aug SSIpmU6 12 Aug SSIamU6 11 Aug SSIpmU6 11 Aug SSIamU6 10 Aug SSIpmU6 10 Aug SSIamU6 09 Aug SSIpmU6 09 Aug SSIamU6 08 Aug SSIpmU6 08 Aug SSIamU6

16910 16820 16710 16610 16765 16645 16720 16605 16605 16485

16920 16930 16885 16755 16805 16810 16745 16760 16715 16630

16775 16780 16670 16585 16660 16630 16660 16600 16600 16475

145 150 215 170 145 180 85 160 115 155

16790 16910 16875 16745 16670 16745 16660 16705 16645 16605

--16910 --16745 --16745 --16705 --16605

 120  165  130 UNCH  75  40  45  100  40  370

0.71 0.99 0.78 UNCH 0.45 0.24 0.27 0.60 0.24 2.28

15796 45303 4868 5858 12345 58475 14076 36125 11900 44427

WEEKLY

AUGUST

JULY

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

16930 (12/Aug)

16475 (08/Aug)

16930 (12/Aug)

15885 (04/Aug)

16930 (21/July)

15105 (08/July)

18945 (04/Jan)

14770 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

17580

High 28/Apr/2016 (Reaction high)

17260

High 31/May/2016 (Peak)

17045

High 02/Jun/2016

16930

Double Top

16710

Reaction low (1-H chart)

16670


16530


16475

Pivot line (1-H chart)

BUY

----

SELL

16850

STOP LOSS

16950

TARGET


16700 16590



KSU6 (Kospi Sep Futures) – Exp. Date: 08 Sep. 2016

 Rebound catat level tertinggi tahun ini di 258.20  Daily trend bullish, namun waspadai adanya pola Shooting Star yang berpotensi picu reversal  Short-term support di sekitar 254.45 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

12 Aug 11 Aug 10 Aug 09 Aug 08 Aug 05 Aug

256.70 255.50 255.90 254.60 253.95 250.00

258.20 256.15 256.70 256.65 254.70 252.70

256.15 254.60 255.20 254.30 252.85 249.90

2.05 1.55 1.50 2.35 1.85 2.80

256.25 256.05 255.20 256.00 254.20 252.70

256.25 256.05 255.20 256.00 254.20 252.70

 0.20  0.85  0.80  1.80  1.50  3.10

0.08 0.33 0.31 0.71 0.59 1.24

112173 125363 111914 115629 102826 99138

WEEKLY

AUGUST

JULY

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

258.20 (12/Aug)

252.85 (08/Aug)

258.20 (12/Aug)

248.75 (03/Aug)

253.80 (27/July)

241.35 (06/July)

258.20 (12/Aug)

223.10 (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION 260.50

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

High 02/Jun/2015

259.70

High 02/Jun/2015

258.20

High 12/Aug/2016

256.85

Reaction high (1-H chart)

254.60

Low 09/Aug/2016

252.85

Low 08/Aug/2016

249.90

Low 05/Aug/2016

248.75

Low 03/Aug/2016 (Bottom)

BUY

----

SELL

256.60

STOP LOSS

257.35

TARGET


254.80 253.90



HSIQ6 (Hang Seng Aug Futures) – Exp. Date: 30 August 2016

 Reli catat level tertinggi tahun ini di 22817  Daily trend bullish, namun RSI sudah overbought (74)  Short-term support di sekitar 22300 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

12 Aug 11 Aug 10 Aug 09 Aug 08 Aug 05 Aug 04 Aug

22730 22401 22482 22382 22305 21891 21868

22817 22687 22600 22469 22479 22171 21877

22681 22322 22345 22369 22197 21880 21732

136 365 255 100 282 291 145

22758 22563 22420 22429 22447 22123 21812

22757 22560 22420 22429 22448 22123 21812

WEEKLY

AUGUST

CHANGE       

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.86 0.64 0.04 0.08 1.46 1.43 0.61

96504 115697 96780 71603 101056 95972 86464

195 143 9 18 324 311 133

JULY

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

22817 (12/Aug)

22197 (08/Aug)

22817 (12/Aug)

21670 (03/Aug)

22321 (26/July)

20278 (06/July)

22817 (12/Aug)

18217 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

23347

High 04/Nov/2015 (Reaction high)

23240

High 05/Nov/2015

23055

High 26/Nov/2015 (Reaction high)

22817

High 12/Aug/2016 (Reaction high)

22607


22514


22322


22197


BUY

----

SELL

22780

STOP LOSS

22850

TARGET


22600 22500

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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