RISET SAHAM HARIAN Samuel Equity Research
Tuesday, 31 May 2016
Market Activity
Waspadai pelemahan rupiah
Tuesday, 31 May 2016 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume Market Value
: 4,836.0 : +21.3 (+0.4%) : 3,733 Mn shrs : 3,933 Bn rupiah
Last Close
Changes +/%
Leading Movers BBRI 10,625 BMRI 9,275 BBCA 13,200 SMMA 7,000
225 225 200 500
2.2 2.5 1.5 7.7
Lagging Movers TLKM 3,700 GGRM 70,000 ICBP 15,925 UNVR 43,725
-60 -1325 -375 -275
-1.6 -1.9 -2.3 -0.6
Foreign Net Buy / Sell Net Buy (Rpbn) BBRI 235 ASII 117 BBCA 78 BMRI 67 BBNI 62
Net Sell (Rpbn) AALI 22 MLPL 19 BSDE 19 WIKA 10 BKSL 6
Last Close 13,647 4.9 -0.5
Dual Listing Securities Last Close TLKM 55.9 ISAT 35.8 EIDO 22.5
Changes +/% 64.0 -0.5 0.0 -
Changes +/% -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 0.0 0.0
World Indices
DJIA S&P 500 Euro Stoxx MSCI World Nikkei Hang Seng
Memorial
Day,
sementara
bursa
Eropa
secara
umum
menguat. Data pertumbuhan ekonomi Perancis yang melebihi ekspektasi menjadi sentimen positif.
Indeks USD yang cenderung menguat berpotensi mendorong pelemahan sejumlah mata uang lainnya. Waspadai tekanan pada nilai tukar rupiah yang saat ini telah menembus Rp 13.600 per dolar AS.
IHSG menguat 0,4% kemarin dengan dana asing tercatat net buy Rp 652 miliar di pasar reguler. Bursa Asia pagi ini
Money Market
USD/IDR JIBOR O/N Infl (MoM)
Bursa AS tutup pada hari senin kemarin dalam rangka
Last Close 17,873 2,099 3,090 1,677 17,043 20,629
Changes +/% 0 0.0 0 0.0 12 0.4 1 0.0 -25 -0.1 53 0.3
Last Close 50 2,600 53 8,387 16,225
Changes +/% 0.2 0.4 41.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 25.5 0.3 353.5 2.2
melemah dan IHSG berpotensi melemah hari ini.
Highlights
PPRO
: Telah menggunakan 35% capex
SIPD
: Targetkan penjualan Rp 3.2triliun
CSAP
: Rights issue Rp492 miliar
ARTI
: Mendapat dana dari Northcliff
Farmasi
: Menanti pabrik bahan baku obat
Commodities
WTI Oil CPO Malay Coal Newc Nickel Tin
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DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
PPRO: Telah menggunakan 35% capex PT PP Properti Tbk (PPRO) secara kontinyu melakukan ekspansi. Hingga pertengahan Mei, perseroan telah menyerap anggaran belanja modal Rp385miliar, dari total capex tahun ini yang ditetapkan sebesar Rp1.1triliun. Adapun sebagian besar anggaran tersebut digunakan untuk mengakuisisi lahan di jalan TB Simatupang Jakarta sehingga saat ini total land bank perseroan di wilayah tersebut mencapai 3,4ha, sementara sisanya digunakan untuk penyertaan modal pada perusahaan patungan yang telah dibentuk perseroan. Selain itu, perusahaan juga telah membentuk dua perusaan join venture. Pertama perseroan menggandeng PT Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk (KIJA) dan kedua dengan PT Sentul City Tbk (BKSL). Dengan kepemilikan 49% pada keduanya, PPRO telah menyuntikkan untuk masing-masing perusahaan patungan tersebut Rp36,197 miliar dan Rp49 miliar. (Kontan) PPRO: Non-Coverage, 16E’ PE:N/Ax, PBV:N/Ax. SIPD: Targetkan penjualan Rp 3.2triliun PT Sierad Produce Tbk (SIPD) meningkatkan target penjualan sebesar Rp 3.2 trilliun pada 2016. Pihak manajemen mengatakan, PDB tahun ini akan lebih positif di banding tahun sebelumnya, secara otomatis meningkatkan daya beli. Penjualan bersih SIPD anjlok akibat lesunya harga day old chicken (DOC) dalam waktu lama akibat oversupply. Dengan demikian, untuk mengurangi resiko volatilitas harga pada DOC, komoditas pakan ternak, maupun ayam potong, perusahaan berencana memacu komposisi produk olahan mencapai 28% dari total penjualan 2016. (Bisnis Indonesia) SIPD: Non-Coverage. CSAP: Rights issue Rp492 miliar Emiten material bahan bangunan, PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana Tbk. (CSAP) berencana akan menawarkan 1.15 miliar saham baru (rights issue) dengan total nilai Rp492 miliar. Rasio rights issue adalah 5:2 dengan exercise price sebesar Rp425/saham dan potensi efek dilusi adalah 40%. Dana hasil rights issue sekitar 80% akan digunakan untuk membiayai capex perseroan di 2017 untuk membangun 5 gerai Mitra10 baru di Yogyakarta, Surabaya dan Jabodetabek. Sisa 20% dananya akan digunakan untuk ekspansi gudang dan penyesuaian kapasitas. (Bisnis Indonesia) CSAP: Non-Coverage.
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Page 2 of 6
ARTI: Mendapat dana dari Northcliff Northcliff Capital Ltd, perusahaan pengelola dana asal Singapura menyiapkan dana USD 200 juta untuk membiayai proyek properti dan gas milik PT Ratu Prabu Energi Tbk (ARTI). Sektor migas menyumbang 55% dari total pendapatan ARTI, sementara 45% lagi dari sektor properti. Di
bisnis
migas,
penguatan
harga
minyak
dunia
dinilai
akan
semakin
menggairahkan bisnis ini di tahun ini. Di bisnis properti, ARTI akan meluncurkan proyek apartemen mewah di TB Simatupang, Jakarta. Di kawasan itu, ke depannya juga akan dibangun hotel dan perkantoran. (Investor Daily) ARTI: Non-Coverage. Farmasi: Menanti pabrik bahan baku obat Setelah pemerintah mengeluarkan stimulus dalam paket kebijakan ke XI, pelaku pasar menantikan berkembangnya industri hulu obat. Salah satu poin stimulus itu adalah membolehkan asing memiliki saham 100% pada perusahaan bahan baku obat. Produk bahan baku obat lokal diharapkan dapat mengurangi ketergantungan impor yang kini masih sangat tinggi, seperti dari China dan India, dan menurunkan harga obat khususnya generik. KLBF sudah memulai pembangunan pabrik bahan baku obat berbasis biologi di Cikarang dan dijadwalkan beroperasi pada 2H16. Pabrik itu merupakan kerja sama antara KLBF dan Genexine Inc asal Korea Selatan. (Kontan) Farmasi: Overweight.
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Page 3 of 6
Ticker
Rec.
JCI Wgt Last price
1D Chg 1M Chg YTD Chg TP Cons
PE
PBV
ROE
EV/EBITDA (x)
TP SSI
Upside
(%)
(Rp)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(Rp)
(Rp)
(%)
16E
17E
16E
17E
16E
17E
16E
17E
4.2 6.3
9275 13200
2.5 1.5
(3.9) 1.1
0.3 (0.8)
9894 14640
9700 13900
4.6 5.3
11.1 17.3
9.4 14.7
1.4 3.1
1.3 2.7
13.0% 18.1%
13.8% 18.2%
n/a n/a
n/a n/a
5.1 1.7
10625 4720
2.2 1.9
2.7 2.9
(7.0) (5.4)
11723 5767
11500 5500
8.2 16.5
10.3 7.9
9.0 6.6
2.0 1.0
1.7 0.9
19.5% 13.1%
19.2% 14.0%
n/a n/a
n/a n/a
Banks BMRI BBCA
HOLD HOLD
BBRI HOLD BBNI HOLD Consumer (Staples) ICBP INDF
BUY BUY
1.8 1.2
15925 7000
(2.3) (1.1)
4.3 (1.8)
18.2 35.3
16727 8428
16500 8000
3.6 14.3
27.0 16.4
24.3 13.4
5.3 2.1
4.7 1.9
19.7% 12.6%
19.5% 14.0%
18.5 8.7
15.8 7.8
KLBF ROTI
BUY BUY
1.3 0.1
1415 1425
1.1 (2.1)
2.9 (1.7)
7.2 12.6
1475 1508
1610 1500
13.8 5.3
30.8 26.4
25.7 17.6
5.7 5.1
5.0 4.1
18.5% 19.2%
19.4% 23.3%
20.2 12.6
16.9 11.2
ULTJ UNVR Cigarette
BUY HOLD
0.2 6.5
3850 43725
(0.3) (0.6)
(8.0) 2.7
(2.4) 18.2
n/a 40388
5000 39000
29.9 -10.8
17.6 51.5
14.7 47.1
4.0 62.6
3.3 56.1
22.6% 22.5% 121.5% 119.1%
10.9 36.5
9.3 33.4
HMSP GGRM
HOLD BUY
8.7 2.6
96000 70000
0.6 (1.9)
(3.9) 1.1
2.1 27.3
102844 76471
109750 77150
14.3 10.2
37.7 20.6
33.7 19.8
12.5 3.1
11.4 2.8
33.3% 15.2%
33.8% 14.1%
25.6 14.8
23.3 14.0
Healthcare MIKA
BUY
0.7
2580
0.4
(2.8)
7.5
2790
2950
14.3
56.1
49.6
10.4
9.5
18.6%
19.0%
30.3
27.3
SILO
HOLD
0.2
9450
0.8
11.8
(3.6)
10788
8600
-9.0
135.0
103.8
6.0
5.8
4.5%
5.6%
16.4
13.4
MAPI
BUY
0.1
3840
(1.0)
(8.6)
1.2
4987
5800
51.0
20.6
12.4
1.9
1.7
9.2%
13.4%
7.1
5.7
RALS ACES
HOLD BUY
0.1 0.3
825 905
8.6 1.7
17.9 (2.2)
27.9 9.7
783 929
700 1000
-15.2 10.5
16.2 23.8
15.0 19.3
1.7 4.9
1.6 4.0
10.3% 20.5%
10.5% 21.0%
12.0 17.4
10.6 15.5
Retail
Telco EXCL
BUY
0.7
3470
(0.3)
(0.1)
(3.6)
4546
4600
32.6
21.4
19.0
1.9
1.8
8.9%
9.6%
6.5
5.7
HOLD
0.7
6600
0.0
(1.5)
20.0
7125
6600
0.0
29.9
20.1
2.7
2.4
8.9%
12.0%
4.3
3.8
TLKM HOLD Auto and HE
7.3
3700
(1.6)
4.7
19.7
3932
3500
-5.4
22.3
19.8
4.6
4.1
20.5%
20.5%
7.3
6.6
HOLD HOLD
5.3 1.0
6750 14325
0.7 3.1
0.4 (4.5)
12.5 (15.5)
6885 14941
6800 16700
0.7 16.6
14.8 10.2
13.2 9.7
2.6 1.3
2.4 1.2
17.6% 12.7%
17.8% 12.5%
12.9 3.2
12.4 2.8
Aviation GIAA Property
BUY
0.3
510
5.4
15.1
65.0
473
490
-3.9
10.7
10.4
0.8
0.8
7.2%
7.7%
4.2
4.1
BSDE PWON
BUY BUY
0.7 0.5
1820 540
0.3 0.0
(1.6) 2.9
1.1 8.9
2160 571
1950 590
7.1 9.3
14.2 19.3
11.6 18.0
1.6 3.3
1.4 2.8
11.1% 17.0%
11.8% 15.8%
10.5 7.7
9.2 6.7
KPIG ASRI
BUY HOLD
0.2 0.2
1235 394
(0.4) (1.5)
0.0 (0.5)
(12.4) 14.9
n/a 421
1810 390
46.6 -1.0
28.7 12.3
24.2 11.3
1.0 1.1
1.0 1.0
3.5% 9.0%
4.1% 9.1%
n/a 6.1
n/a 5.3
SMRA BUY Construction PTPP HOLD
0.4
1585
(0.9)
1.3
(3.9)
1699
1750
10.4
24.4
23.3
2.9
2.6
11.8%
11.0%
10.6
9.5
ISAT
ASII UNTR
0.3
3690
4.8
0.7
(4.8)
4579
4000
8.4
22.0
18.1
5.1
4.2
23.1%
23.2%
9.5
8.4
HOLD BUY
0.2 0.7
2580 2590
0.8 (0.4)
(3.6) 10.4
20.6 55.1
3278 2655
2700 2200
4.7 -15.1
24.1 42.5
20.0 33.2
1.8 3.7
1.7 3.3
7.6% 8.6%
8.6% 10.0%
7.5 22.4
6.6 19.0
BUY
0.3
2440
0.0
(7.9)
(7.6)
2998
3300
35.2
20.0
16.7
3.1
2.7
15.4%
16.4%
9.0
7.7
BUY BUY HOLD
1.2 1.1 0.2
16650 9125 1095
0.6 0.3 6.3
(15.6) (7.8) 5.8
(25.4) (20.0) 10.1
18982 11291 1020
22500 13700 950
35.1 50.1 -13.2
12.4 10.3 -1095.0
10.6 9.3 91.3
2.3 1.8 1.0
2.1 1.7 1.0
18.8% 17.9% -0.1%
19.9% 17.9% 1.1%
7.9 5.5 11.0
6.6 4.5 9.0
BUY
1.2
2480
0.0
(5.3)
(9.7)
2969
3400
37.1
12.1
11.4
1.6
1.5
12.9%
12.9%
7.0
6.1
JSMR BUY Coal and Metal ANTM SELL
0.7
5300
0.0
(2.8)
1.4
6299
6500
22.6
22.1
20.8
3.1
2.8
13.9%
13.7%
11.6
11.1
ADHI WSKT WIKA Cement INTP SMGR SMCB Utility PGAS
0.3
670
0.0
(11.8)
113.4
359
375
-44.0
-37.2
60.9
1.2
1.2
-3.2%
1.9%
29.5
23.4
INCO TINS
BUY HOLD
0.3 0.1
1675 670
(0.9) (0.7)
(9.9) (13.5)
2.4 32.7
1518 470
2400 650
43.3 -3.0
61.4 16.3
15.3 13.4
0.7 0.8
0.6 0.8
1.1% 5.1%
4.2% 6.0%
95.7 4.9
64.3 4.3
ITMG ADRO
BUY HOLD
0.2 0.4
8825 695
0.3 0.0
13.1 (4.8)
54.1 35.0
5917 716
9000 700
2.0 0.7
8.1 12.4
6.5 9.6
0.8 0.5
0.8 0.5
10.3% 3.8%
12.8% 4.8%
2.5 10.0
2.0 7.7
PTBA Plantation AALI
BUY
0.3
6675
0.0
(5.3)
47.5
7243
7800
16.9
9.3
7.4
1.5
1.3
15.6%
17.7%
7.0
5.3
BUY
0.5
14925
(0.5)
(7.3)
(5.8)
19236
20000
34.0
17.9
15.4
1.9
1.7
10.4%
11.1%
11.1
10.0
LSIP SIMP
BUY BUY
0.2 0.1
1485 484
(1.0) 0.4
(3.3) (0.4)
12.5 45.8
1759 571
1900 550
27.9 13.6
14.0 14.2
11.3 12.1
1.3 0.5
1.2 0.5
9.2% 3.6%
10.7% 4.1%
6.0 5.9
4.9 5.5
CPIN
HOLD
1.1
3510
(1.4)
(5.5)
35.0
3570
4000
14.0
22.1
18.0
4.1
3.5
18.4%
19.4%
n/a
n/a
JPFA
BUY
0.2
955
(1.5)
3.2
50.4
1068
1150
20.4
12.7
11.4
1.5
1.3
12.1%
11.7%
8.7
7.5
MAIN BUY Other Sectors
0.1
1470
0.3
7.3
(3.6)
1641
1650
12.2
15.2
10.8
1.5
1.4
10.0%
12.6%
n/a
n/a
(12.2)
7200
7000
11.1
20.5
17.7
3.6
3.1
17.4%
17.7%
14.8
11.9
Poultry
AKRA HOLD 0.5 6300 4.6 (3.1) Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Note: GIAA, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, INCO report in USD.
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Page 4 of 6
Regional Indices
1D Change Points
Last Price
Change (%)
1 Year
1D
3D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
World U.S. (S&P)
0.77 0.00
1,677 2,099
0.05 0.00
0.28 1.11
1.36 2.28
0.36 1.63
8.38 8.63
0.84 2.70
(5.76) (0.40)
1,799 2,133
1,460 1,810
U.S. (DOW) Europe
0.00 11.53
17,873 3,090
0.00 0.37
0.94 0.93
2.13 5.36
0.56 2.04
8.21 4.90
2.57 (5.43)
(0.76) (13.46)
18,189 3,714
15,370 2,673
Emerging Market
(0.63)
808
(0.08)
0.59
2.50
(3.87)
9.09
1.70
(19.57)
1,012
687
FTSE 100 CAC 40
5.14 14.66
6,271 4,529
0.08 0.32
0.83 1.07
1.86 4.72
0.46 2.27
2.85 4.04
0.46 (2.32)
n/a (9.55)
7,070 5,218
5,500 3,892
Dax Indonesia
46.92 21.30
10,333 4,836
0.46 0.44
1.25 1.32
4.99 1.95
2.93 (0.05)
8.82 1.36
(3.81) 5.29
(9.47) (7.29)
11,802 5,252
8,699 4,034
Japan
(18.89)
17,049
(0.11)
1.65
3.34
2.30
6.38
(10.43)
(17.09)
20,953
14,866
Australia Korea
(37.92) 2.13
5,370 1,969
(0.70) 0.11
(0.33) 0.62
1.41 1.63
2.24 (1.25)
10.02 2.74
1.40 0.41
(7.05) (6.88)
5,803 2,123
4,707 1,801
Singapore Malaysia
(5.76) (7.32)
2,797 1,630
(0.21) (0.45)
1.09 (0.07)
1.08 (0.31)
(1.47) (2.56)
4.88 (1.50)
(2.98) (3.70)
(17.55) (6.73)
3,404 1,756
2,528 1,504
Hong Kong
52.62
20,629
0.26
1.28
4.14
(2.08)
7.94
(5.86)
(24.78)
27,855
18,279
China Taiwan
1.41 72.26
2,822 8,536
0.05 0.85
0.26 1.66
(0.75) 2.29
(3.94) 1.89
5.00 1.48
(20.25) 2.37
(38.80) (12.01)
5,178 9,747
2,638 7,203
Thailand Philipines
11.45 52.66
1,424 7,464
0.81 0.71
1.90 0.01
3.07 2.16
1.39 4.26
6.89 11.89
10.57 7.37
(4.81) (1.53)
1,525 7,697
1,221 6,084
1D Change Points
Last Price
0.00 n/a
4.90 107.71
n/a
(0.45)
n/a
0.00 (0.00)
0.50 7.89
0.00 (0.89)
Monetary Indicators JIBOR Overnight (%) Foreign Reserve (US$bn) Inflation Rate (%) US Fed Rate (%) Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - % Exchange Rate (per US$)
1D Change
Currency
Points
Indonesia Japan
64.00 (0.25)
UK Euro China Commodities Indicators
Last Price
Change (%)
1 Year
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
0.10 n/a
0.43 0.16
(9.50) 5.46
(35.46) 1.68
(12.99) (2.85)
8.26 110.77
4.89 100.24
(336.84) (188.24) (146.88) (225.00) 0.00 1.89
0.96
(0.45)
0.00 (4.56)
0.00 (9.82)
100.00 (3.45)
0.50 9.90
0.25 7.40
Change (%)
1 Year
1D
3D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
13647 110.87
(0.47) 0.23
0.07 (1.00)
(0.46) (0.79)
(3.42) (4.02)
1.03 8.43
1.03 8.43
(3.09) 12.54
14,736 125.86
12,978 105.55
0.00 0.00
1.47 1.11
0.12 0.10
(0.09) (0.40)
0.14 0.07
(0.11) (3.34)
(0.54) 2.64
(0.54) 2.64
(3.58) 2.03
1.59 1.17
1.38 1.05
0.02
6.58
(0.27)
(0.38)
(0.42)
(1.60)
(1.36)
(1.36)
(5.83)
6.60
6.19
49.77
1D 0.02
3D 0.36
1W 2.39
3M 38.37
YTD 33.50
1YR (24.08)
High 66.36
Low 27.10
1D Change
Last Price
Change (%)
Points 0.01
CPO
41.00
2,600.00
1.60
2.16
4.33
0.27
2.04
4.63
17.33
2,793.00
1,863.00
Rubber Coal
4.00 0.00
689.50 53.20
0.58 0.00
0.29 3.80
0.29 4.42
(3.09) 4.83
28.64 5.35
27.80 5.14
0.36 (11.41)
728.50 60.80
506.50 48.80
Iron Ore
1M 3.41
1 Year
Spot Oil
0.10
48.90
0.20
(3.74)
(7.91)
(22.26)
5.16
12.67
(20.49)
132.60
37.50
353.50
16,225.00
2.23
3.57
0.91
(6.00)
1.56
11.20
4.27
17,625.00
13,223.80
Nickel
25.00
8,420.00
0.30
0.84
1.08
(10.85)
(1.17)
(4.54)
(33.28)
13,680.00
7,550.00
Copper Gold
34.00 (2.40)
4,695.00 1,211.40
0.73 (0.20)
0.88 (1.01)
2.92 (3.20)
(7.03) (6.13)
0.00 (1.86)
(0.21) 14.26
(21.95) 1.85
6,083.50 1,306.00
4,318.00 1,046.20
Tin
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
www.samuel.co.id
Page 5 of 6
Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research
Adrianus Bias Prasuryo Senior Analyst
Strategy, Banking, Consumer
Cement,Construction, Utility
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Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Senior Analyst
Marlene Tanumihardja Analyst
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst
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Retail, Poultry, Consumer, Small Cap
Indices, Equities, Commodities, Currencies, Fixed Income
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Rangga Cipta Economist +6221 2854 8396
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Adde Chandra Kurniawan Research Associate +6221 2854 8338
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Evelyn Satyono Head of Institutional Equity Sales +6221 2854 8148
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