Analisa Teknikal
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian Samuel Research
01 Agustus 2017
Dalam Uptrend Menuju Resistance 5,910
IHSG masih dalam potensi Uptrend menguji Resistance 5,910 dengan target ke 6,100 dalam 3 bulan ke depan. Penurunan di bawah 5,800 berpotensi membatalkan potensi Uptrend dan menjebak IHSG kembali dalam Sideways. Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Telecom, Construction dan Industrial Area. Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Coal dan Mineral. Waspadai sektor : Cigarettes, FMCG, Poultry dan Oil&Gas. Day Trading Recommendation LQ45 : UNVR Non-LQ45 : SSIA dan MIKA Swing Trading Recommendation Add : No Change Drop : No Change Concern :
www.samuel.co.id
Commodity Related : Oil&Gas (MEDC), Coal (ITMG) Consumer Related : Retail (MAPI) Infrastructure Related : Telecom (TLKM), Toll (JSMR) Interest Related : Bank (BBCA, BBTN, BBRI)
Page 1 of 7
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 1 August 2017
Day Trading Recommendation Saham
Last Price
1D %Ch
Supp.1
Supp.2
Resist.1
Resist.2
Daily Target
Cut Loss
SSIA
685
0.7
670
660
700
720
700
670
MIKA
2240
3.7
2170
2100
2280
2320
2290
2195
UNVR
48950
1.2
47920
46880
49770
50580
44950
47975
Tidak ada yang masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation
Swing Trading Recommendation
Stock
1st Add Date
1st Add Open Price
Latest Close
% Change Since Add
Estimated Target
% Upside Potential Since Last Close
Entry Timing
ITMG
7-Jul-17
18,350
20,000
9.0%
25,000
25.0%
Wait
MEDC
18-Jul-17
2,450
2,660
8.6%
3,800
42.9%
Wait
MAPI
3-Mar-17
5,350
6,300
17.8%
7,650
21.4%
Wait
TLKM
23-May-17
4,500
4,690
4.2%
5,400
15.1%
Wait
JSMR
8-May-17
4,750
5,850
23.2%
6,200
6.0%
Wait
BBCA
23-Mar-17
16,400
18,700
14.0%
20,500
9.6%
Wait
BBRI
26-Apr-17
13,150
14,775
12.4%
16,800
13.7%
Now
BBTN
16-Jan-17
1,900
2,600
36.8%
2,900
11.5%
Wait
BBRI dapat dijadikan alternatif pilihan
www.samuel.co.id
Page 2 of 7
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 1 August 2017
Recommendation Charts SSIA (Rp685) : Mengawali Uptrend Menuju Rp800 sampai Rp850
SSIA membuka peluang untuk segera mengawali Uptrend menuju Rp800 dengan Breakout Rp700. Karena SSIA masih mempertahankan Uptrend sejak Jan'17, sangat mungkin SSIA melewati Rp800 dan menuju Rp850. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp650 MIKA (Rp2,240) : Bullish Reversal Menuju Rp2,500
MIKA terindikasi membentuk Bullish Reversal dengan target menuju Rp2,500 setelah Breakout Resistance di Rp2,170. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp2,100
www.samuel.co.id
Page 3 of 7
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 1 August 2017
UNVR (Rp48,950) : Segera Breakout Rp49,000 Dan Menuju Rp53,000
UNVR sedang membentuk Bullish Continuation dengan potensi menuju Rp53,000 setelah Breakout Rp49,000. Waspadai awal Downtrend bila UNVR Breakdown Rp46,600
www.samuel.co.id
Page 4 of 7
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 1 August 2017
Sectoral Movement Benchmark IHSG Relation / Sector Staples Cigarettes FMCG Poultry Relation / Sector Discretionary Auto Healthcare Pharmacy Retail Media Relation / Sector Infrastructure Cement Telecom Construction Industrial Area Toll Relation / Sector Interest Banking Residential Relation / Sector Commodity Coal CPO Mineral Oil&Gas
1D %Ch 0.17 1D %Ch (2.34) (3.69) (0.85) (2.47) 1D %Ch 1.07 1.66 0.84 0.48 0.42 1.97 1D %Ch 0.76 0.33 1.06 0.61 (0.46) 2.26 1D %Ch 0.99 1.12 0.86 1D %Ch (1.06) (0.65) (1.07) (1.70) (0.81)
5D %Ch 0.68 5D %Ch (5.46) (2.58) (1.23) (12.57) 5D %Ch 0.48 (0.12) 2.64 0.04 (1.03) 0.85 5D %Ch 2.61 0.75 3.29 2.84 0.74 5.43 5D %Ch 1.26 2.53 (0.02) 5D %Ch 1.43 1.49 (3.66) 4.66 3.22
Real Rise 7.7% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% Real Rise 23.5% 33.3% 50.0% 0.0% 14.3% 33.3% Real Rise 42.1% 0.0% 66.7% 60.0% 40.0% 50.0% Real Rise 21.1% 12.5% 27.3% Real Rise 4.5% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fake Fall 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% Fake Fall 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 14.3% 0.0% Fake Fall 21.1% 25.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 0.0% Fake Fall 15.8% 12.5% 18.2% Fake Fall 31.8% 28.6% 16.7% 75.0% 20.0%
Real Fall 61.5% 100.0% 50.0% 66.7% Real Fall 35.3% 33.3% 50.0% 0.0% 42.9% 33.3% Real Fall 21.1% 50.0% 33.3% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% Real Fall 31.6% 25.0% 36.4% Real Fall 36.4% 28.6% 33.3% 25.0% 60.0%
Fake Rise 23.1% 0.0% 37.5% 0.0% Fake Rise 29.4% 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% 28.6% 33.3% Fake Rise 15.8% 25.0% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% 50.0% Fake Rise 31.6% 50.0% 18.2% Fake Rise 27.3% 28.6% 50.0% 0.0% 20.0%
Infrastructure Related dapat menjadi pilihan utama hari ini. Commodity Related dapat menjadi pilihan alternatif Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Telecom, Construction dan Industrial Area Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Coal dan Mineral Waspadai sektor : Cigarettes, FMCG, Poultry dan Oil&Gas
www.samuel.co.id
Page 5 of 7
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 1 August 2017 Technical Analysis Glossary Support
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan penurunan lebih lanjut
Resistance
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan kenaikan lebih lanjut
Breakout
: Pergerakan harga melewati Resistance dari bawah ke atas. Mengindikasikan Uptrend
Breakdown
: Pergerakan harga melewati Support dari atas ke bawah. Mengindikasikan Downtrend
Throwback
: Penurunan paksa terjadi Breakout dimana maksimum penurunan adalah Support yang berasal dari Resistance yang baru saja di-Breakout
Pullback
: Kenaikan paska terjadi Breakdown dimana maksimum kenaikan adalah Resistance yang berasal dari Support yang baru saja di-Breakdown
Technical Rebound
: Kenaikan sementara di tengah Downtrend. Kenaikan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari penurunan yang segera terjadi
Technical Correction : Penurunan sementara di tengah Uptrend. Penurunan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari kenaikan yang segera terjadi Bullish Continuation
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut
Bearish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bullish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Uptrend
Bearish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Downtrend
Up Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Down Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Day Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period selama 1 hari sampai 2 minggu
Swing Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period sampai 3 bulan
Bottom Fishing
: Strategi trading dengan membeli saham yang telah turun cukup dalam
www.samuel.co.id
Page 6 of 7
Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Economist
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8339
Nadya Swastika
Research Associate
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8338
Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8325
Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8150
Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8173
Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8371
Aben Epapras
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8389
Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
www.samuel.co.id
Page 7 of 7
