Analisa Teknikal
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian Samuel Research
16 Agustus 2017
Breakout 5,820. Mengawali Uptrend Menuju 6,100
IHSG terindikasi Breakout 5,820 sehingga berpotensi berada di awal Uptrend menuju 6,100. Dalam 1 – 2 hari ini, IHSG seharusnya akan menguji validitas Breakout tersebut. Selama IHSG tidak turun kembali di bawah 5,810, kemungkinan besar Breakout valid dan IHSG memang di awal Uptrend menuju 6,100 atau setidaknya membuat All Time High baru (sebelumnya di 5,910.24) di bulan Agust’17. Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Poultry, Healthcare, Telecom, Toll dan Oil&Gas. Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Industrial Area dan Retail. Waspadai sektor : Media, Mineral dan CPO. Day Trading Recommendation Buy : JSMR, UNTR, AKRA dan GGRM Sell : BKSL Charts : JSMR, UNTR, GGRM dan BKSL Swing Trading Recommendation Add : No Change Drop : No Change Concern :
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Commodity Related : Oil&Gas (MEDC), Coal (DOID, ITMG) Consumer Related : Retail (MAPI) Infrastructure Related : Cement (SMGR), Telecom (TLKM), Toll (JSMR) Interest Related : Bank (BBCA, BBTN, BBRI)
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 16 August 2017
Day Trading Recommendation Saham JSMR UNTR AKRA GGRM BKSL
Last Price 5500 30175 6675 67325 131
Signals Buy Buy Buy Buy Sell
Supp.1 5420 29720 6640 66720 120
Supp.2 5330 29260 6610 66110 120
Resist.1 5570 30420 6720 67770 140
Resist.2 5630 30660 6760 68210 150
Daily Target 5625 30800 6825 68675 0
Cut Loss 5375 29550 6525 65975 0
JSMR masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation BKSL mendapat sinyal Sell yang perlu diwaspadai
Swing Trading Recommendation
Stock
Trend
Entry Timing
Latest Close
% Change Since Add
DOID
Uptrend
Now
945
0.0%
Estimated Target
% Upside Potential Since Last Close
1st Add Date
1,200
27.0%
10-Aug-17
ITMG
Downtrend
Wait
20,425
11.3%
25,000
22.4%
7-Jul-17
MEDC MAPI SMGR
Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend
Wait Now Wait
2,870 6,550 10,900
17.1% 22.4% -0.5%
3,800 7,650 11,500
32.4% 16.8% 5.5%
18-Jul-17 3-Mar-17 10-Aug-17
TLKM
Uptrend
Wait
4,730
5.1%
5,400
14.2%
23-May-17
JSMR
Uptrend
Now
5,500
15.8%
6,200
12.7%
8-May-17
BBCA
Downtrend
Now
18,675
13.9%
20,500
9.8%
23-Mar-17
BBRI BBTN
Uptrend Uptrend
Wait Wait
15,050 2,710
14.4% 42.6%
16,800 2,900
11.6% 7.0%
26-Apr-17 16-Jan-17
DOID, MAPI dan BBCA layak mendapat perhatian
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 16 August 2017
Selected Recommendation Charts JSMR (Rp5,500) : Mempertahankan Uptrend Menuju Rp6,000
JSMR terindikasi membentuk Bullish Continuation sehingga Uptrend masih berpotensi berlanjut menuju Rp6,000 setelah Breakout Rp5,525. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp5,400 UNTR (Rp30,175) : Uptrend Menuju Resistance Rp31,500
UNTR berpotensi melanjutkan Uptrend menuju Rp31,500 dengan Breakout Rp29,200. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp28,000
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 16 August 2017
GGRM (Rp67,325) : Berpotensi Naik Sebagai Technical Rebound Menuju Rp72,200
GGRM berpotensi naik sebagai Technical Rebound menuju Rp72,000 namun masih dalam Downtrend dengan potensi Rp60,000. Breakout Rp72,000 akan membuka peluang Uptrend BKSL (Rp131) – Sell : Technical Correction Menuju Rp120. Masih Ada Potensi Uptrend Menuju Rp150
BKSL memiliki peluang turun sebagai Technical Correction menuju Rp120. Masih ada peluang naik menuju Resistance di Rp150 namun perlu diwaspadai penurunan di bawah Rp120
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 16 August 2017
Sectoral Movement Benchmark IHSG Relation / Sector Staples Cigarettes FMCG Poultry Relation / Sector Discretionary Auto Healthcare Pharmacy Retail Media Relation / Sector Infrastructure Cement Telecom Construction Industrial Area Toll Relation / Sector Interest Banking Residential Relation / Sector Commodity Coal CPO Mineral Oil&Gas
1D %Ch 0.58 1D %Ch 1.61 1.73 0.43 2.67 1D %Ch 0.91 0.10 2.59 (0.13) 0.57 1.41 1D %Ch 0.12 0.21 0.65 (0.21) (0.96) 0.92 1D %Ch 0.97 0.16 1.77 1D %Ch 0.92 0.77 1.50 (0.11) 1.52
5D %Ch 0.42 5D %Ch 0.27 (1.50) 0.22 2.09 5D %Ch 2.60 (1.36) 10.19 6.78 (0.41) (2.21) 5D %Ch 0.82 2.74 0.90 1.39 (1.39) 0.46 5D %Ch 2.95 1.37 4.52 5D %Ch 1.79 0.95 1.69 2.62 1.91
Real Rise 50.0% 50.0% 33.3% 100.0% Real Rise 40.0% 50.0% 100.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% Real Rise 42.9% 33.3% 66.7% 50.0% 0.0% 100.0% Real Rise 27.3% 15.4% 44.4% Real Rise 42.1% 50.0% 0.0% 33.3% 60.0%
Fake Fall 10.0% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% Fake Fall 26.7% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 16.7% 33.3% Fake Fall 35.7% 33.3% 33.3% 25.0% 66.7% 0.0% Fake Fall 18.2% 23.1% 11.1% Fake Fall 10.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0%
Real Fall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Real Fall 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% Real Fall 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 33.3% 0.0% Real Fall 22.7% 38.5% 0.0% Real Fall 26.3% 25.0% 33.3% 66.7% 0.0%
Fake Rise 40.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% Fake Rise 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 66.7% Fake Rise 7.1% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Fake Rise 31.8% 23.1% 44.4% Fake Rise 21.1% 12.5% 66.7% 0.0% 20.0%
Staples Consumer Related masih dapat menjadi pilihan utama hari ini Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Poultry, Healthcare, Telecom, Toll dan Oil&Gas Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Industrial Area dan Retail Waspadai sektor : Media, Mineral dan CPO
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 16 August 2017 Technical Analysis Glossary Support
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan penurunan lebih lanjut
Resistance
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan kenaikan lebih lanjut
Breakout
: Pergerakan harga melewati Resistance dari bawah ke atas. Mengindikasikan Uptrend
Breakdown
: Pergerakan harga melewati Support dari atas ke bawah. Mengindikasikan Downtrend
Throwback
: Penurunan paksa terjadi Breakout dimana maksimum penurunan adalah Support yang berasal dari Resistance yang baru saja di-Breakout
Pullback
: Kenaikan paska terjadi Breakdown dimana maksimum kenaikan adalah Resistance yang berasal dari Support yang baru saja di-Breakdown
Technical Rebound
: Kenaikan sementara di tengah Downtrend. Kenaikan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari penurunan yang segera terjadi
Technical Correction : Penurunan sementara di tengah Uptrend. Penurunan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari kenaikan yang segera terjadi Bullish Continuation
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut
Bearish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bullish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Uptrend
Bearish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Downtrend
Up Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Down Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Day Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period selama 1 hari sampai 2 minggu
Swing Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period sampai 3 bulan
Bottom Fishing
: Strategi trading dengan membeli saham yang telah turun cukup dalam
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Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
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+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Economist
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Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
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Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
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+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
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Nadya Swastika
Research Associate
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Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
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Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
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Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
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Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
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Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
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Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
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Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
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Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
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Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
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Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
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Aben Epapras
Marketing
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Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
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