Analisa Teknikal
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian Samuel Research
30 Agustus 2017
Sideways 5,900an Sebelum Memastikan Breakout
IHSG masih bertahan di atas 5,850 yang menandakan IHSG berpotensi mempertahankan Sideways.dengan kecenderungan Uptrend menuju 6,100 selepas Breakout 5,910. Memasuki Sept’17, Technical Analyst perkirakan IHSG sudah di awal Uptrend menuju 6,100. Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : FMCG, Toll dan Mineral. Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Poultry, Media, Cement, Coal dan CPO. Waspadai sektor : Telecom dan Industrial Area. Day Trading Recommendation Buy : ADRO, SMGR, BBNI dan BNLI Sell : INDY, BRPT dan MEDC Charts : ADRO, BNLI, INDY dan BRPT Swing Trading Recommendation Add : No Change Drop : No Change Concern : DOID dan ITMG
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Commodity Related : Oil&Gas (BRPT, MEDC), Coal (DOID, ITMG) Consumer Related : Retail (MAPI) Infrastructure Related : Cement (SMGR), Telecom (TLKM), Toll (JSMR) Interest Related : Bank (BBCA, BBTN, BBRI)
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 30 August 2017
Day Trading Recommendation Saham
Last Price
Daily Signals
Daily Target
Cut Loss
% Target
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% -2.0% -1.6% -1.9%
ADRO
1870
Buy
1910
1830
SMGR
10475
Buy
10700
10250
BBNI
7350
Buy
7500
7200
BNLI
730
Buy
745
715
INDY
1,275
Sell
1250
0
BRPT
1,910
Sell
1880
0
MEDC
3,100
Sell
3040
0
Supp.1
Supp.2
Resist.1
Resist.2
1830
1790
1930
1990
10400
10330
10580
10680
7300
7250
7400
7450
720
710
750
770
1,250
1,230
1,310
1,350
1,880
1,850
1,960
2,000
3,040
2,970
3,190
3,270
SMGR masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation
Swing Trading Recommendation
Stock
Trend
Daily Signals
DOID ITMG BRPT MEDC MAPI SMGR TLKM JSMR BBCA BBRI BBTN
Uptrend Downtrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Downtrend Downtrend Uptrend Uptrend Downtrend Uptrend
Sell Buy Sell Sell Sell Buy Sell Buy Sell Sell Buy
Latest Close 995 19,200 1,910 3,100 6,875 10,475 4,730 5,625 19,075 14,975 2,950
% Change Since Add 5.3% 4.6% -0.5% 26.5% 28.5% -4.3% 5.1% 18.4% 16.3% 13.9% 55.3%
Estimated Target 1,200 25,000 2,325 3,800 7,650 11,850 5,400 6,200 20,500 16,800 3,350
% Upside Potential Since Last Close
1st Add Date
20.6% 30.2% 21.7% 22.6% 11.3% 13.1% 14.2% 10.2% 7.5% 12.2% 13.6%
10-Aug-17 7-Jul-17 22-Aug-17 18-Jul-17 3-Mar-17 10-Aug-17 23-May-17 8-May-17 23-Mar-17 26-Apr-17 16-Jan-17
JSMR dan BBTN layak menjadi alternatif pilihan DOID dan ITMG masuk ke dalam saham yang perlu diwaspadai dan terancam keluar dari Swing Trading Recommendation
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 30 August 2017
Selected Recommendation Charts ADRO (Rp1,870) : Mempertahankan Uptrend Dengan Naik Menuju Rp1,990
ADRO sedang dalam proses Breakout valid Rp1,940 untuk membuka peluang Uptrend menuju Rp2,500. Ada potensi Technical Correction menuju Rp1,900 namun perlu diwaspadai penurunan sebagai pembalikan arah menjadi Downtrend bila ADRO terus turun di bawah Rp1,860 BNLI (Rp730) : Mengakhiri Technical Correction, Melanjutkan Uptrend Menuju Rp870
BNLI berpotensi belum Breakout dan mengawali Uptrend menuju Rp870. Ada potensi BNLI bergerak Sideways sebagai persiapan Breakout Rp750an dimana penurunan mendekati Rp730 adalah wajar. Peluang Uptrend dan Breakout masih besar selama di atas Rp700
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 30 August 2017
INDY (Rp1,275) – Sell : Technical Correction Menuju Rp1,150 Sebelum Breakout Rp1,320
INDY kemungkinan belum akan Breakout Resistance Rp1,320 yang mampu membawa INDY Uptrend sampai Rp1,670. INDY berpotensi mengalami Technical Correction menuju Rp1,250 sampai Rp1,150 sebelum berhasil Breakout Resistance di Rp1,320) BRPT (Rp1,910) – Sell : Menguji Support di Rp1,890, Terancam Gagal Uptrend Menuju Rp2,325
BRPT berpotensi melanjutkan Uptrend menuju Rp2,325 paska Breakout Rp1,890. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp1,890
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 30 August 2017
Sectoral Movement Benchmark IHSG Relation / Sector Staples Cigarettes FMCG Poultry Relation / Sector Discretionary Auto Healthcare Pharmacy Retail Media Relation / Sector Infrastructure Cement Telecom Construction Industrial Area Toll Relation / Sector Interest Banking Residential Relation / Sector Commodity Coal CPO Mineral Oil&Gas
1D %Ch (0.26) 1D %Ch 0.13 0.03 0.62 (0.26) 1D %Ch (0.80) (0.89) 0.32 (1.13) (1.39) (0.89) 1D %Ch 0.07 (0.01) 0.12 (0.18) (0.48) 0.90 1D %Ch (0.29) 0.19 (0.77) 1D %Ch 0.24 (0.80) (0.20) 2.33 (0.36)
5D %Ch 0.13 5D %Ch 1.10 1.68 1.53 0.10 5D %Ch (0.70) (0.68) 1.47 0.26 (3.30) (1.24) 5D %Ch (0.43) (2.68) 1.76 (1.79) (2.65) 3.21 5D %Ch (0.18) (0.14) (0.23) 5D %Ch 1.33 1.31 0.05 1.97 2.00
Real Rise 70.0% 50.0% 83.3% 50.0% Real Rise 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 33.3% Real Rise 21.4% 33.3% 0.0% 25.0% 0.0% 100.0% Real Rise 18.2% 23.1% 11.1% Real Rise 31.6% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% 40.0%
Fake Fall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Fake Fall 33.3% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 33.3% 33.3% Fake Fall 21.4% 33.3% 0.0% 25.0% 33.3% 0.0% Fake Fall 27.3% 15.4% 44.4% Fake Fall 42.1% 62.5% 66.7% 0.0% 20.0%
Real Fall 30.0% 50.0% 16.7% 50.0% Real Fall 40.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 33.3% Real Fall 50.0% 33.3% 66.7% 50.0% 66.7% 0.0% Real Fall 45.5% 46.2% 44.4% Real Fall 21.1% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40.0%
Fake Rise 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Fake Rise 13.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Fake Rise 7.1% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Fake Rise 9.1% 15.4% 0.0% Fake Rise 5.3% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Staples Consumer Related layak menjadi pilihan utama hari ini Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : FMCG, Toll dan Mineral Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Poultry, Media, Cement, Coal dan CPO Waspadai sektor : Telecom dan Industrial Area
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 30 August 2017 Technical Analysis Glossary Support
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan penurunan lebih lanjut
Resistance
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan kenaikan lebih lanjut
Breakout
: Pergerakan harga melewati Resistance dari bawah ke atas. Mengindikasikan Uptrend
Breakdown
: Pergerakan harga melewati Support dari atas ke bawah. Mengindikasikan Downtrend
Throwback
: Penurunan paksa terjadi Breakout dimana maksimum penurunan adalah Support yang berasal dari Resistance yang baru saja di-Breakout
Pullback
: Kenaikan paska terjadi Breakdown dimana maksimum kenaikan adalah Resistance yang berasal dari Support yang baru saja di-Breakdown
Technical Rebound
: Kenaikan sementara di tengah Downtrend. Kenaikan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari penurunan yang segera terjadi
Technical Correction : Penurunan sementara di tengah Uptrend. Penurunan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari kenaikan yang segera terjadi Bullish Continuation
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut
Bearish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bullish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Uptrend
Bearish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Downtrend
Up Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Down Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Day Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period selama 1 hari sampai 2 minggu
Swing Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period sampai 3 bulan
Bottom Fishing
: Strategi trading dengan membeli saham yang telah turun cukup dalam
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Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Economist
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+6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
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+6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
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+6221 2854 8339
Nadya Swastika
Research Associate
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Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
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Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
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Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
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Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
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Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
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Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
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Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
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Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
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Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
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Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
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Aben Epapras
Marketing
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Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
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