Analisa Teknikal
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian Samuel Research
21 Agustus 2017
Membuat All Time High Yang Lebih Meyakinkan
IHSG berhasil membuat All Time High di 5,912.12 (sebelumnya 5,910.24) namun Technical Analyst belum melihat New All Time High tersebut sebagai hal yang positif. IHSG lebih terlihat gagal Breakout Resistance All Time High. Namun potensi IHSG untuk kembali naik dan membentuk New All Time High yang lebih meyakinkan masih ada. Perlu diwaspadai penurunan IHSG di bawah 5,840. Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Poultry, Auto, Mineral dan Residential. Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Industrial Area, Media dan Toll. Waspadai sektor : Cement dan Construction. Day Trading Recommendation Buy : DOID, INCO, PGAS, ASII, PTPP dan BBTN Sell : MPPA dan BMRI Charts : PGAS, BBTN, MPPA dan BMRI Swing Trading Recommendation Add : No Change Drop : No Change Concern :
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Commodity Related : Oil&Gas (MEDC), Coal (DOID, ITMG) Consumer Related : Retail (MAPI) Infrastructure Related : Cement (SMGR), Telecom (TLKM), Toll (JSMR) Interest Related : Bank (BBCA, BBTN, BBRI)
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 21 August 2017
Day Trading Recommendation Saham DOID INCO PGAS ASII PTPP BBTN GGRM MPPA BMRI
Last Price 980 2720 2160 7900 2,890 2,800 74,000 750 13,100
Daily Signals Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Sell Sell Sell
Daily Target 1000 2780 2210 8075 2950 2860 70825 670 13050
Cut Loss 960 2660 2110 7725 2830 2740 0 0 0
% Target
2.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% -4.3% -10.7% -0.4%
Supp.1 960 2630 2120 7810 2,850 2,700 70,810 670 13,050
Supp.2 930 2530 2080 7720 2,810 2,600 67,620 590 13,000
Resist.1 1000 2770 2200 7980 2,950 2,850 76,080 840 13,180
Resist.2 1010 2810 2240 8070 3,010 2,900 78,170 930 13,250
DOID dan BBTN masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation
Swing Trading Recommendation
Stock
Trend
Daily Signals
Latest Close
% Change Since Add
DOID
Uptrend
Buy
980
3.7%
ITMG
Uptrend
Sell
20,575
12.1%
MEDC MAPI SMGR
Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend
Sell Buy Sell
2,820 6,625 10,875
15.1% 23.8% -0.7%
Estimated Target
% Upside Potential Since Last Close
1st Add Date
1,200
22.4%
10-Aug-17
25,000
21.5%
7-Jul-17
3,800 7,650 11,850
34.8% 15.5% 9.0%
18-Jul-17 3-Mar-17 10-Aug-17 23-May-17
TLKM
Uptrend
Sell
4,780
6.2%
5,400
13.0%
JSMR
Downtrend
Sell
5,500
15.8%
6,200
12.7%
8-May-17
BBCA
Downtrend
Sell
18,700
14.0%
20,500
9.6%
23-Mar-17
BBRI BBTN
Uptrend Uptrend
Sell Buy
15,150 2,800
15.2% 47.4%
16,800 3,000
10.9% 7.1%
26-Apr-17 16-Jan-17
BBTN mendapat kenaikan Estimated Target MAPI dapat menjadi alternatif pilihan
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 21 August 2017
Selected Recommendation Charts PGAS (Rp2,160) : Melawan Downtrend Dengan Breakout Rp2,200 dan Menuju Rp2,300
PGAS terancam melanjutkan Downtrend menuju Rp2,000. Ada pelaung PGAS naik melewati Rp2,200 yang membuka awal Uptrend jangka pendek menuju Rp2,300. Dengan menuju Rp2,300, terbuka peluang mempertahankan Sideways jangka menengah di rentang Rp2,200 - Rp3,000. Waspada penurunan di bawah Rp2,110 BBTN (Rp2,800) : Mempertahankan Uptrend Menuju Rp3,000
BBTN berpotensi melanjutkan Uptrend menuju Rp3,000 dengan Breakout Rp2,700. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp2,580
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 21 August 2017
MPPA (Rp750) – Sell : Technical Correction Menuju Rp690 – Rp720
MPPA berpotensi melanjutkan Uptrend menuju Rp1,100 paska Breakout Rp720. Namun Higher Tail yang panjang mengindikasikan adanya Technical Correction menuju Rp690 - Rp720. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp690 yang membuat MPPA gagal Uptrend BMRI (Rp13,100) – Sell : Breakdown Rp13,200, Throwback Menuju Rp12,500
BMRI berpotensi mengawali Downtrend jangka pendek menuju Rp12,500 setelah terjadi Breakdown Up Trendline di Rp13,200. Ada kemungkinan BMRI gagal mempertahankan Uptrend menuju Rp14,200 (yang perlu Breakout Rp13,500). Downtrend jangka pendek tersebut terlihat sebagai Throwback paska Breakout Rp12,500. BMRI masih mempertahankan Uptrend jangka menengah - panjang
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 21 August 2017
Sectoral Movement Benchmark IHSG Relation / Sector Staples Cigarettes FMCG Poultry Relation / Sector Discretionary Auto Healthcare Pharmacy Retail Media Relation / Sector Infrastructure Cement Telecom Construction Industrial Area Toll Relation / Sector Interest Banking Residential Relation / Sector Commodity Coal CPO Mineral Oil&Gas
1D %Ch 0.03 1D %Ch 1.39 2.83 0.33 1.03 1D %Ch 0.62 (0.45) 3.46 (0.87) 2.31 (1.32) 1D %Ch (1.20) (1.11) (1.37) (1.16) (1.02) (1.35) 1D %Ch (0.55) (0.12) (0.98) 1D %Ch 1.11 0.71 (0.20) 3.09 0.86
5D %Ch 1.17 5D %Ch 5.71 9.99 2.33 4.81 5D %Ch 2.08 (0.93) 10.12 (0.96) 5.95 (3.80) 5D %Ch (0.82) 0.60 (1.08) (1.98) (0.30) (1.35) 5D %Ch 0.38 (0.55) 1.32 5D %Ch 0.46 0.09 2.70 (0.30) (0.66)
Real Rise 30.0% 50.0% 16.7% 50.0% Real Rise 26.7% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% Real Rise 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Real Rise 13.6% 23.1% 0.0% Real Rise 47.4% 37.5% 33.3% 100.0% 40.0%
Fake Fall 30.0% 0.0% 33.3% 50.0% Fake Fall 40.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 33.3% 66.7% Fake Fall 42.9% 33.3% 33.3% 25.0% 66.7% 100.0% Fake Fall 54.5% 38.5% 77.8% Fake Fall 26.3% 25.0% 33.3% 0.0% 40.0%
Real Fall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Real Fall 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% Real Fall 50.0% 66.7% 33.3% 75.0% 33.3% 0.0% Real Fall 27.3% 30.8% 22.2% Real Fall 21.1% 25.0% 33.3% 0.0% 20.0%
Fake Rise 40.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% Fake Rise 26.7% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% Fake Rise 7.1% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Fake Rise 4.5% 7.7% 0.0% Fake Rise 5.3% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Interest Related masih dapat menjadi pilihan utama hari ini Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Poultry, Auto, Mineral dan Residential Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Industrial Area, Media dan Toll Waspadai sektor : Cement dan Construction
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 21 August 2017 Technical Analysis Glossary Support
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan penurunan lebih lanjut
Resistance
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan kenaikan lebih lanjut
Breakout
: Pergerakan harga melewati Resistance dari bawah ke atas. Mengindikasikan Uptrend
Breakdown
: Pergerakan harga melewati Support dari atas ke bawah. Mengindikasikan Downtrend
Throwback
: Penurunan paksa terjadi Breakout dimana maksimum penurunan adalah Support yang berasal dari Resistance yang baru saja di-Breakout
Pullback
: Kenaikan paska terjadi Breakdown dimana maksimum kenaikan adalah Resistance yang berasal dari Support yang baru saja di-Breakdown
Technical Rebound
: Kenaikan sementara di tengah Downtrend. Kenaikan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari penurunan yang segera terjadi
Technical Correction : Penurunan sementara di tengah Uptrend. Penurunan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari kenaikan yang segera terjadi Bullish Continuation
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut
Bearish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bullish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Uptrend
Bearish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Downtrend
Up Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Down Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Day Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period selama 1 hari sampai 2 minggu
Swing Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period sampai 3 bulan
Bottom Fishing
: Strategi trading dengan membeli saham yang telah turun cukup dalam
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Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Economist
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+6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8339
Nadya Swastika
Research Associate
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8338
Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8325
Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8150
Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8173
Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8371
Aben Epapras
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8389
Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
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