Analisa Teknikal
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian Samuel Research
24 Agustus 2017
Sedang Breakout 5,910, Mengawali Uptrend Menuju 6,100
Penutupan IHSG yang relatif tepat di Resistance belum mengonfirmasi Breakout namun memberikan peluang Breakout yang sangat besar yang dengan demikian, IHSG berpeluang berada dalam awal Uptrend menuju 6,100. Perlu kenaikan (dan tutup) di atas 5,910 dalam 2 hari terakhir untuk mengonfirmasi Breakout dan awal Uptrend. Technical Analyst prediksi IHSG telah Breakout valid dan di awal Uptrend menuju 6,100. Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Telecom, Construction, Industrial Area dan Residential. Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : CPO, Mineral dan Auto. Waspadai sektor : Cigarettes, Poultry, Pharmacy, Cement dan Toll. Day Trading Recommendation Buy : ASII, TLKM, BBCA dan BBNI Sell : DOID, INCO dan BMRI Charts : ASII, BBNI, INCO dan DOID Swing Trading Recommendation Add : No Change Drop : No Change Concern :
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Commodity Related : Oil&Gas (BRPT, MEDC), Coal (DOID, ITMG) Consumer Related : Retail (MAPI) Infrastructure Related : Cement (SMGR), Telecom (TLKM), Toll (JSMR) Interest Related : Bank (BBCA, BBTN, BBRI)
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 24 August 2017
Day Trading Recommendation Saham ASII TLKM BBCA BBNI DOID INCO BMRI
Last Price 7975 4800 19150 7400 1,030 2,980 13,275
Daily Signals Buy Buy Buy Buy Sell Sell Sell
Daily Target 8150 4900 19550 7550 1010 2900 13200
Cut Loss 7800 4700 18750 7250 0 0 0
% Target
2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% -1.9% -2.7% -0.6%
Supp.1 7920 4760 18950 7330 1,010 2,900 13,190
Supp.2 7860 4730 18750 7270 990 2,820 13,110
Resist.1 8020 4820 19250 7460 1,060 3,040 13,370
Resist.2 8060 4850 19350 7520 1,080 3,100 13,460
TLKM dan BBCA masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation
Swing Trading Recommendation
Stock
Trend
Daily Signals
Latest Close
DOID
Uptrend
Sell
1,030
% Change Since Add
Estimated Target
% Upside Potential Since Last Close
1st Add Date 10-Aug-17
9.0%
1,200
16.5%
ITMG
Downtrend
Buy
20,100
9.5%
25,000
24.4%
7-Jul-17
BRPT MEDC MAPI
Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend
Sell Buy Sell
1,910 2,940 6,875
-0.5% 20.0% 28.5%
2,325 3,800 7,650
21.7% 29.3% 11.3%
22-Aug-17 18-Jul-17 3-Mar-17
SMGR
Uptrend
Sell
10,700
-2.3%
11,850
10.7%
10-Aug-17 23-May-17
TLKM
Uptrend
Buy
4,800
6.7%
5,400
12.5%
JSMR
Downtrend
Buy
5,475
15.3%
6,200
13.2%
8-May-17
BBCA BBRI BBTN
Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend
Buy Sell Sell
19,150 15,300 2,900
16.8% 16.3% 52.6%
20,500 16,800 3,350
7.0% 9.8% 15.5%
23-Mar-17 26-Apr-17 16-Jan-17
MEDC layak menjadi alternatif pilihan
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 24 August 2017
Selected Recommendation Charts ASII (Rp7,975) : Segera Breakout Rp8,000 Untuk Mengawali Uptrend Menuju Rp8,800
Meski berpeluang Downtrend menuju Rp7,000, peluang ASII naik menuju Rp8,000 dan melewati Resistance Rp8,000 tersebut memberikan peluang menarik untuk ASII menghindari Downtrend. ASII berpotensi menuju Rp8,400 paska Breakout Rp8,000. Waspadai penurunan ASII di bawah Rp7,750 BBNI (Rp7,400) : Mempertahankan Uptrend Menuju Rp8,300
BBNI berpotensi mengawali Uptrend dengan Breakout Rp7,450 menuju Rp7,800. BBNI memiliki target menuju Rp8,300 paska Breakout Rp6,925. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp7,275
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 24 August 2017
INCO (Rp2,980) – Sell : Technical Correction Menuju Rp2,700
INCO berpotensi mengakhiri Uptrend sejak Jul'17 di Rp3,000an untuk membentuk Technical Correction menuju Rp2,700. INCO sangat mungkin berada dalam Uptrend jangka panjang yang kembali dilanjutkan paska INCO Breakout Rp3,100 DOID (Rp1,030) – Sell : Technical Correction Maksimum di Rp980 Untuk Tetap Uptrend Menuju Rp1,200
DOID berpeluang mengakhiri Sideways dan kembali Uptrend menuju Rp1,200 setelah Breakout Rp870 dan melewati Resistance di Rp1,050. Waspadai perlanjutan Downtrend bila Breakdown Rp800
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 24 August 2017
Sectoral Movement Benchmark IHSG Relation / Sector Staples Cigarettes FMCG Poultry Relation / Sector Discretionary Auto Healthcare Pharmacy Retail Media Relation / Sector Infrastructure Cement Telecom Construction Industrial Area Toll Relation / Sector Interest Banking Residential Relation / Sector Commodity Coal CPO Mineral Oil&Gas
1D %Ch 0.57 1D %Ch 0.79 1.67 0.09 0.61 1D %Ch 0.06 0.32 0.72 (0.35) (0.42) 0.04 1D %Ch 0.18 (0.81) 2.38 (0.46) (0.67) 0.46 1D %Ch 0.00 0.32 (0.31) 1D %Ch 1.13 4.00 0.36 (0.90) 1.06
5D %Ch 1.35 5D %Ch 2.46 6.12 0.94 0.33 5D %Ch 1.12 1.22 2.77 (2.67) 5.82 (1.54) 5D %Ch (0.66) (0.60) 1.07 (2.94) (0.38) (0.45) 5D %Ch 1.01 1.23 0.79 5D %Ch 4.13 5.54 (0.84) 9.61 2.21
Real Rise 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Real Rise 20.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 33.3% Real Rise 21.4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Real Rise 27.3% 30.8% 22.2% Real Rise 36.8% 50.0% 33.3% 0.0% 40.0%
Fake Fall 10.0% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% Fake Fall 33.3% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% Fake Fall 42.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 66.7% 0.0% Fake Fall 40.9% 30.8% 55.6% Fake Fall 42.1% 12.5% 66.7% 100.0% 40.0%
Real Fall 20.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% Real Fall 26.7% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 33.3% 0.0% Real Fall 21.4% 66.7% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% Real Fall 22.7% 23.1% 22.2% Real Fall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fake Rise 70.0% 100.0% 50.0% 100.0% Fake Rise 20.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 16.7% 33.3% Fake Rise 14.3% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Fake Rise 9.1% 15.4% 0.0% Fake Rise 21.1% 37.5% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0%
Commodity Realted dan Interest Related layak menjadi pilihan utama hari ini Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Telecom, Construction, Industrial Area dan Residential Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : CPO, Mineral dan Auto Waspadai sektor : Cigarettes, Poultry, Pharmacy, Cement dan Toll
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 24 August 2017 Technical Analysis Glossary Support
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan penurunan lebih lanjut
Resistance
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan kenaikan lebih lanjut
Breakout
: Pergerakan harga melewati Resistance dari bawah ke atas. Mengindikasikan Uptrend
Breakdown
: Pergerakan harga melewati Support dari atas ke bawah. Mengindikasikan Downtrend
Throwback
: Penurunan paksa terjadi Breakout dimana maksimum penurunan adalah Support yang berasal dari Resistance yang baru saja di-Breakout
Pullback
: Kenaikan paska terjadi Breakdown dimana maksimum kenaikan adalah Resistance yang berasal dari Support yang baru saja di-Breakdown
Technical Rebound
: Kenaikan sementara di tengah Downtrend. Kenaikan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari penurunan yang segera terjadi
Technical Correction : Penurunan sementara di tengah Uptrend. Penurunan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari kenaikan yang segera terjadi Bullish Continuation
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut
Bearish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bullish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Uptrend
Bearish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Downtrend
Up Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Down Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Day Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period selama 1 hari sampai 2 minggu
Swing Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period sampai 3 bulan
Bottom Fishing
: Strategi trading dengan membeli saham yang telah turun cukup dalam
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Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Economist
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+6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
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+6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
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+6221 2854 8339
Nadya Swastika
Research Associate
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+6221 2854 8338
Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
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+6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
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+6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
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+6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
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+6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
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+6221 2854 8325
Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
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+6221 2854 8150
Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
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+6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
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+6221 2854 8173
Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
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+6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
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+6221 2854 8371
Aben Epapras
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8389
Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
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