Analisa Teknikal
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian Samuel Research
22 Agustus 2017
Koreksi Sehat Maksimum 5,800
Penurunan IHSG sangat wajar seiring dengan IHSG telah menyentuh Resistance dari All Time High di 5,910. Penurunan yang sehat berpotensi terhenti di 5,800 – 5,820. Penurunan di bawah 5,800 perlu diwaspadai sebagai awal Downtrend menuju 5,600 namun Technical Analyst meyakini peluangnya kecil. Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Residential dan Mineral. Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Cigarettes, FMCG, Poultry, Cement dan Construction. Waspadai sektor : Telecom, Toll dan CPO. Day Trading Recommendation Buy : ANTM, TINS, BRPT dan BSDE Sell : INDY, INCO, HMSP dan AKRA Charts : BRPT, TINS, INCO, HMSP Swing Trading Recommendation Add : BRPT Drop : No Change Concern :
www.samuel.co.id
Commodity Related : Oil&Gas (BRPT, MEDC), Coal (DOID, ITMG) Consumer Related : Retail (MAPI) Infrastructure Related : Cement (SMGR), Telecom (TLKM), Toll (JSMR) Interest Related : Bank (BBCA, BBTN, BBRI)
Page 1 of 7
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 22 August 2017
Day Trading Recommendation Saham ANTM TINS BRPT BSDE INDY INCO HMSP AKRA
Last Price 715 850 1910 1850 990 2,800 3,590 6,550
Daily Signals Buy Buy Buy Buy Sell Sell Sell Sell
Daily Target 730 870 1950 1890 940 2770 3530 6450
Cut Loss 700 830 1870 1810 0 0 0 0
% Target
2.1% 2.4% 2.1% 2.2% -5.1% -1.1% -1.7% -1.5%
Supp.1 700 830 1880 1830 940 2,770 3,530 6,450
Supp.2 680 800 1840 1810 900 2,740 3,470 6,350
Resist.1 730 870 1930 1860 1,030 2,830 3,690 6,700
Resist.2 740 880 1950 1870 1,070 2,860 3,790 6,850
BRPT masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation
Swing Trading Recommendation
Stock
Trend
Daily Signals
Latest Close
% Change Since Add
DOID
Uptrend
Sell
980
3.7%
Estimated Target
% Upside Potential Since Last Close
1st Add Date
1,200
22.4%
10-Aug-17
ITMG
Downtrend
Sell
20,025
9.1%
25,000
24.8%
7-Jul-17
BRPT MEDC MAPI
Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend
Buy Buy Buy
1,910 2,840 6,825
New 15.9% 27.6%
2,325 3,800 7,650
21.7% 33.8% 12.1%
21-Aug-17 18-Jul-17 3-Mar-17
SMGR
Uptrend
Buy
10,850
-0.9%
11,850
9.2%
10-Aug-17
TLKM
Uptrend
Sell
4,770
6.0%
5,400
13.2%
23-May-17
JSMR
Downtrend
Sell
5,450
14.7%
6,200
13.8%
8-May-17
BBCA BBRI BBTN
Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend
Buy Buy Sell
18,800 15,275 2,830
14.6% 16.2% 48.9%
20,500 16,800 3,000
9.0% 10.0% 6.0%
23-Mar-17 26-Apr-17 16-Jan-17
BRPT baru masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation
www.samuel.co.id
Page 2 of 7
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 22 August 2017
Selected Recommendation Charts BRPT (Rp1,910) : Breakout Rp1,890, Uptrend Menuju Rp2,325
BRPT berpotensi melanjutkan Uptrend menuju Rp2,325 paska Breakout Rp1,890. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp1,890 TINS (Rp850) : Menuju Rp910 Untuk Breakout Dan Menuju Rp1,020
TINS mempertahankan Uptrend jangka pendek menuju Rp910. Ada potensi Breakout Rp910 yang membuat TINS mengawali Uptrend jangka menengah menuju Rp1,020. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp790
www.samuel.co.id
Page 3 of 7
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 22 August 2017
INCO (Rp2,800) – Sell : Koreksi Menuju Rp2,600 Yang Perlu Diwaspadai
Meski ada peluang Breakout Rp2,850 dan menuju Rp3,100, peluang INCO terkoreksi menuju Rp2,600 cukup besar dan cukup perlu diwaspadai lanjutan penurunan di bawah Rp2,600. HMSP (Rp3,590) – Sell : Tertahan Di Resistance Rp3,750, Masih Mempertahankan Downtrend Menuju Rp3,200
HMSP berpotensi mengakhiri kenaikan sebagai Technical Rebound maksimal di Rp3,750 dan mempertahankan Downtrend menuju Rp3,200. Downtrend berpotensi berakhir bila berhasil Breakout Rp3,750. HMSP akan kembali Sideways di rentang atas Rp4,000 - Rp4,100
www.samuel.co.id
Page 4 of 7
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 22 August 2017
Sectoral Movement Benchmark IHSG Relation / Sector Staples Cigarettes FMCG Poultry Relation / Sector Discretionary Auto Healthcare Pharmacy Retail Media Relation / Sector Infrastructure Cement Telecom Construction Industrial Area Toll Relation / Sector Interest Banking Residential Relation / Sector Commodity Coal CPO Mineral Oil&Gas
1D %Ch (0.56) 1D %Ch (1.96) (3.16) (0.88) (1.86) 1D %Ch (0.10) 0.36 (0.84) (0.06) (0.17) 0.20 1D %Ch (0.79) (1.33) (0.65) (0.88) (0.16) (0.91) 1D %Ch 0.60 0.71 0.50 1D %Ch 0.72 (0.81) (0.54) 3.87 0.35
5D %Ch 1.65 5D %Ch 5.34 8.12 2.87 5.05 5D %Ch 2.93 1.43 6.63 (1.21) 7.93 (0.13) 5D %Ch (0.39) 1.34 (0.82) (1.87) 0.33 (0.91) 5D %Ch 3.29 1.79 4.80 5D %Ch 2.39 1.48 0.59 5.48 2.03
Real Rise 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Real Rise 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 16.7% 0.0% Real Rise 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Real Rise 40.9% 30.8% 55.6% Real Rise 26.3% 12.5% 0.0% 66.7% 40.0%
Fake Fall 80.0% 100.0% 66.7% 100.0% Fake Fall 46.7% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 33.3% Fake Fall 57.1% 66.7% 33.3% 100.0% 33.3% 0.0% Fake Fall 22.7% 30.8% 11.1% Fake Fall 26.3% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0%
Real Fall 10.0% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% Real Fall 20.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 16.7% 33.3% Real Fall 35.7% 33.3% 66.7% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% Real Fall 18.2% 15.4% 22.2% Real Fall 36.8% 37.5% 100.0% 0.0% 20.0%
Fake Rise 10.0% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% Fake Rise 20.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 33.3% Fake Rise 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% Fake Rise 18.2% 23.1% 11.1% Fake Rise 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 20.0%
Infrastructure Related dan Staples Consumer Related dapat menjadi pilihan utama hari ini Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Residential dan Mineral Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Cigarettes, FMCG, Poultry, Cement dan Construction Waspadai sektor : Telecom, Toll dan CPO
www.samuel.co.id
Page 5 of 7
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 22 August 2017 Technical Analysis Glossary Support
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan penurunan lebih lanjut
Resistance
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan kenaikan lebih lanjut
Breakout
: Pergerakan harga melewati Resistance dari bawah ke atas. Mengindikasikan Uptrend
Breakdown
: Pergerakan harga melewati Support dari atas ke bawah. Mengindikasikan Downtrend
Throwback
: Penurunan paksa terjadi Breakout dimana maksimum penurunan adalah Support yang berasal dari Resistance yang baru saja di-Breakout
Pullback
: Kenaikan paska terjadi Breakdown dimana maksimum kenaikan adalah Resistance yang berasal dari Support yang baru saja di-Breakdown
Technical Rebound
: Kenaikan sementara di tengah Downtrend. Kenaikan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari penurunan yang segera terjadi
Technical Correction : Penurunan sementara di tengah Uptrend. Penurunan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari kenaikan yang segera terjadi Bullish Continuation
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut
Bearish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bullish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Uptrend
Bearish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Downtrend
Up Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Down Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Day Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period selama 1 hari sampai 2 minggu
Swing Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period sampai 3 bulan
Bottom Fishing
: Strategi trading dengan membeli saham yang telah turun cukup dalam
www.samuel.co.id
Page 6 of 7
Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Economist
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8339
Nadya Swastika
Research Associate
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8338
Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8325
Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8150
Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8173
Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8371
Aben Epapras
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8389
Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
www.samuel.co.id
Page 7 of 7
