Analisa Teknikal
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian Samuel Research
15 Agustus 2017
Breakout 5,820 Untuk Mengawali Uptrend Menuju 6,100
IHSG membuka peluang untuk segera Breakout 5,820 dan mengonfirmasi Bullish Continuation dengan target menuju 6,100. Masih ada ancaman Downtrend menuju 5,600 bila IHSG Breakdown 5,750. Technical Analyst meyakini IHSG akan Breakout 5,820 di minggu ini. Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Cigarettes. Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Industrial Area, Toll, Mineral dan Oil&Gas. Waspadai sektor : Poultry, Auto, Cement, Telecom, Construction, Bank dan Coal. Day Trading Recommendation Kompas100 : CTRA dan ITMG Also LQ45 : ASII, EXCL, ADRO dan SMRA Swing Trading Recommendation Add : No Change Drop : No Change Concern :
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Commodity Related : Oil&Gas (MEDC), Coal (DOID, ITMG) Consumer Related : Retail (MAPI) Infrastructure Related : Cement (SMGR), Telecom (TLKM), Toll (JSMR) Interest Related : Bank (BBCA, BBTN, BBRI)
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 15 August 2017
Day Trading Recommendation Saham ASII EXCL CTRA ADRO SMRA ITMG
Last Price 7850 3400 1165 1850 1,065 19,950
1D %Ch 1.0 0.3 4.0 1.7 0.95 -
Supp.1 7780 3350 1130 1830 1,060 19,650
Supp.2 7700 3300 1100 1800 1,050 19,350
Resist.1 7930 3460 1190 1870 1,080 20,230
Resist.2 8000 3520 1220 1890 1,100 20,500
Daily Target 8025 3470 1190 1890 1090 20350
Cut Loss 7675 3330 1140 1810 1040 19550
ITMG masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation
Swing Trading Recommendation
Stock
Trend
Entry Timing
Latest Close
DOID
Uptrend
Now
940
% Change Since Add
Estimated Target
% Upside Potential Since Last Close
1st Add Date 10-Aug-17
-0.5%
1,200
27.7%
ITMG
Downtrend
Now
19,950
8.7%
25,000
25.3%
7-Jul-17
MEDC MAPI SMGR
Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend
Wait Wait Now
2,800 6,550 10,975
14.3% 22.4% 0.2%
3,800 7,650 11,850
35.7% 16.8% 8.0%
18-Jul-17 3-Mar-17 10-Aug-17
TLKM
Uptrend
Now
4,710
4.7%
5,400
14.6%
23-May-17
JSMR
Uptrend
Wait
5,450
14.7%
6,200
13.8%
8-May-17
BBCA
Uptrend
Now
18,750
14.3%
20,500
9.3%
23-Mar-17
BBRI BBTN
Uptrend Uptrend
Now Now
15,075 2,740
14.6% 44.2%
16,800 2,900
11.4% 5.8%
26-Apr-17 16-Jan-17
SMGR mendapat kenaikan Estimated Target DOID, SMGR, TLKM dan Bank layak mendapat perhatian
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 15 August 2017
Selected Recommendation Charts ASII (Rp7,850) : Mengakhiri Ancaman Downtrend Dengan Breakout Rp8,000
Meski berpeluang Downtrend menuju Rp7,000, peluang ASII naik menuju Rp8,000 dan melewati Resistance Rp8,000 tersebut memberikan peluang menarik untuk ASII menghindari Downtrend. ASII berpotensi menuju Rp8,400 paska Breakout Rp8,000. Waspadai penurunan ASII di bawah Rp7,750 ADRO (Rp1,850) : Bersiap Breakout Rp1,850 Dan Melanjutkan Uptrend Menuju Rp2,050
ADRO berpotensi terus melanjutkan Uptrend menuju Rp2,050 dengan Breakout Rp1,850. Dengan menuju Rp2,050 berarti ADRO telah Breakout Resistance penting di Rp1,940 yang membuka peluang ADRO menguji Resistance berikut di Rp2,200. Waspadai penurunan ADRO di bawah Rp1,800
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 15 August 2017
EXCL (Rp3,400) : Mengakhiri Throwback, Menuju Rp3,850
EXCL berpeluang mengakhiri Technical Correction yang menyerupai Throwback (penurunan paska Breakout) Resistance di Rp3,370. EXCL memiliki potensi melanjutkan Uptrend menuju Rp3,850. Waspadai penurunan EXCL di bawah Rp3,370 ITMG (Rp19,950) : Bersiap Melanjutkan Uptrend Menuju Rp22,000
Kenaikan ITMG berpotensi menuju Resistance terdekat di Rp22,000. ITMG memiliki peluang Breakout Rp22,000 dan menuju Resistance berikut di Rp24,800. Perlu diwaspadai penurunan di bawah Rp19,950
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 15 August 2017
Sectoral Movement Benchmark IHSG Relation / Sector Staples Cigarettes FMCG Poultry Relation / Sector Discretionary Auto Healthcare Pharmacy Retail Media Relation / Sector Infrastructure Cement Telecom Construction Industrial Area Toll Relation / Sector Interest Banking Residential Relation / Sector Commodity Coal CPO Mineral Oil&Gas
1D %Ch 0.61 1D %Ch 1.30 1.37 1.51 1.03 1D %Ch 0.55 0.74 1.33 0.10 0.47 0.14 1D %Ch 0.61 2.35 0.19 1.42 (0.91) 1D %Ch 1.54 0.93 2.14 1D %Ch (0.06) 0.57 0.04 (0.57) (0.28)
5D %Ch 0.91 5D %Ch (1.28) (3.88) 0.76 (0.72) 5D %Ch 2.14 (0.32) 8.53 6.86 (1.00) (3.37) 5D %Ch 2.30 3.34 3.07 2.56 0.67 1.87 5D %Ch 3.74 3.38 4.10 5D %Ch 1.36 (2.07) 1.54 4.39 1.57
Real Rise 33.3% 100.0% 33.3% 0.0% Real Rise 13.3% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% Real Rise 7.1% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Real Rise 27.3% 23.1% 33.3% Real Rise 5.6% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Fake Fall 22.2% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% Fake Fall 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 33.3% Fake Fall 35.7% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% Fake Fall 18.2% 23.1% 11.1% Fake Fall 44.4% 14.3% 0.0% 100.0% 80.0%
Real Fall 11.1% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% Real Fall 26.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 33.3% Real Fall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Real Fall 9.1% 0.0% 22.2% Real Fall 16.7% 28.6% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Fake Rise 33.3% 0.0% 16.7% 100.0% Fake Rise 46.7% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 33.3% 33.3% Fake Rise 57.1% 66.7% 66.7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Fake Rise 45.5% 53.8% 33.3% Fake Rise 33.3% 57.1% 33.3% 0.0% 20.0%
Commodity Related masih dapat menjadi pilihan utama hari ini Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Cigarettes Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Industrial Area, Toll, Mineral dan Oil&Gas Waspadai sektor : Poultry, Auto, Cement, Telecom, Construction, Bank dan Coal
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 15 August 2017 Technical Analysis Glossary Support
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan penurunan lebih lanjut
Resistance
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan kenaikan lebih lanjut
Breakout
: Pergerakan harga melewati Resistance dari bawah ke atas. Mengindikasikan Uptrend
Breakdown
: Pergerakan harga melewati Support dari atas ke bawah. Mengindikasikan Downtrend
Throwback
: Penurunan paksa terjadi Breakout dimana maksimum penurunan adalah Support yang berasal dari Resistance yang baru saja di-Breakout
Pullback
: Kenaikan paska terjadi Breakdown dimana maksimum kenaikan adalah Resistance yang berasal dari Support yang baru saja di-Breakdown
Technical Rebound
: Kenaikan sementara di tengah Downtrend. Kenaikan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari penurunan yang segera terjadi
Technical Correction : Penurunan sementara di tengah Uptrend. Penurunan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari kenaikan yang segera terjadi Bullish Continuation
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut
Bearish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bullish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Uptrend
Bearish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Downtrend
Up Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Down Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Day Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period selama 1 hari sampai 2 minggu
Swing Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period sampai 3 bulan
Bottom Fishing
: Strategi trading dengan membeli saham yang telah turun cukup dalam
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Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Economist
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+6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
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+6221 2854 8339
Nadya Swastika
Research Associate
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+6221 2854 8338
Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8325
Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8150
Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
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+6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8173
Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8371
Aben Epapras
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8389
Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
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