Analisa Teknikal
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian Samuel Research
25 Agustus 2017
Sideways Dengan Tetap Berpeluang Breakout
IHSG masih berpotensi Breakout 5,910 dan mengawali Uptrend menuju 6,100. Dalam 1-3 hari ke depan, IHSG kemungkinan akan Sideways di rentang 5,850 – 5,900. Technical Analyst perkirakan sebelum Agustus berakhir, IHSG sudah akan mengawali Uptrend menuju 6,100 (telah Breakout 5,910). Waspadai penurunan IHSG di bawah 5,850. Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Toll, Mineral dan Bank. Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Telecom, Construction dan Residential. Waspadai sektor : Cigarettes, Poultry, Industrial Area dan Oil&Gas. Day Trading Recommendation Buy : UNTR, ANTM, INDF dan BBNI Sell : INCO, HMSP, BMRI dan BNLI Charts : ANTM, INDF, BNLI dan INCO Swing Trading Recommendation Add : No Change Drop : No Change Concern :
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Commodity Related : Oil&Gas (BRPT, MEDC), Coal (DOID, ITMG) Consumer Related : Retail (MAPI) Infrastructure Related : Cement (SMGR), Telecom (TLKM), Toll (JSMR) Interest Related : Bank (BBCA, BBTN, BBRI)
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 25 August 2017
Day Trading Recommendation Saham UNTR ANTM INDF BBNI INCO HMSP BMRI BNLI
Last Price 30475 740 8400 7425 2,920 3,640 13,200 755
Daily Signals Buy Buy Buy Buy Sell Sell Sell Sell
Daily Target 31100 755 8575 7575 2850 3600 13175 700
Cut Loss 29850 725 8225 7275 0 0 0 0
% Target
2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% -2.4% -1.1% -0.2% -7.3%
Supp.1 29880 730 8310 7380 2,850 3,600 13,170 700
Supp.2 29290 710 8220 7340 2,790 3,550 13,130 640
Resist.1 30780 760 8460 7460 3,050 3,690 13,270 800
Resist.2 31090 770 8520 7490 3,190 3,730 13,330 850
Tidak ada yang masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation
Swing Trading Recommendation
Stock
Trend
Daily Signals
Latest Close
DOID
Uptrend
Sell
1,030
% Change Since Add
Estimated Target
% Upside Potential Since Last Close
1st Add Date 10-Aug-17
9.0%
1,200
16.5%
ITMG
Downtrend
Buy
20,100
9.5%
25,000
24.4%
7-Jul-17
BRPT MEDC MAPI
Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend
Sell Buy Sell
1,910 2,940 6,875
-0.5% 20.0% 28.5%
2,325 3,800 7,650
21.7% 29.3% 11.3%
22-Aug-17 18-Jul-17 3-Mar-17
SMGR
Uptrend
Sell
10,700
-2.3%
11,850
10.7%
10-Aug-17
TLKM
Uptrend
Buy
4,800
6.7%
5,400
12.5%
23-May-17
JSMR
Downtrend
Buy
5,475
15.3%
6,200
13.2%
8-May-17
BBCA BBRI BBTN
Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend
Buy Sell Sell
19,150 15,300 2,900
16.8% 16.3% 52.6%
20,500 16,800 3,350
7.0% 9.8% 15.5%
23-Mar-17 26-Apr-17 16-Jan-17
MEDC, TLKM dan BBCA layak menjadi alternatif pilihan
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 25 August 2017
Selected Recommendation Charts ANTM (Rp740) : Segera Menguji Rp780 Untuk Breakout Dan Uptrend Menuju Rp880
ANTM berpotensi mengakhiri Sideways dengan naik menuju Rp780 lalu Breakout dan menuju Rp880. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp690 INDF (Rp8,400) : Naik Menuju Rp8,700 Untuk Mengawali Uptrend Menuju Rp9,200
INDF memiliki peluang naik menguji Resistance Down Trendline di Rp8,700 dan Breakout untuk mengawali Uptrend menuju Rp9,200.Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp8,125
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 25 August 2017
BNLI (Rp755) – Sell : Sideways Menuju Rp730 Sebelum Breakout Valid Dan Uptrend Menuju Rp870
BNLI berpotensi belum Breakout dan mengawali Uptrend menuju Rp870. Ada potensi BNLI bergerak Sideways sebagai persiapan Breakout Rp750an dimana penurunan mendekati Rp730 adalah wajar. Peluang Uptrend dan Breakout masih besar selama di atas Rp700 INCO (Rp2,920) – Sell : Sideways Dengan Kecenderungan Bullish Continuation atau Bearish Reversal
INCO berpotensi mengakhiri Uptrend sejak Jul'17 di Rp3,000an untuk membentuk Technical Correction menuju Rp2,700. INCO sangat mungkin berada dalam Uptrend jangka panjang yang kembali dilanjutkan paska INCO Breakout Rp3,100
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 25 August 2017
Sectoral Movement Benchmark IHSG Relation / Sector Staples Cigarettes FMCG Poultry Relation / Sector Discretionary Auto Healthcare Pharmacy Retail Media Relation / Sector Infrastructure Cement Telecom Construction Industrial Area Toll Relation / Sector Interest Banking Residential Relation / Sector Commodity Coal CPO Mineral Oil&Gas
1D %Ch (0.34) 1D %Ch (0.67) (0.67) (0.05) (1.28) 1D %Ch (0.32) (0.52) 0.12 (0.03) (1.17) 0.00 1D %Ch (0.50) (0.76) (1.65) (0.90) (1.05) 1.83 1D %Ch (0.47) (0.21) (0.73) 1D %Ch 0.76 (0.64) 0.60 1.98 1.09
5D %Ch 0.04 5D %Ch (1.37) (0.44) (0.63) (3.04) 5D %Ch (0.10) 0.03 2.88 (2.48) 0.10 (1.02) 5D %Ch (2.04) (2.62) (0.94) (2.82) (3.84) 5D %Ch (0.19) 0.89 (1.27) 5D %Ch 5.33 5.01 (0.05) 12.57 3.77
Real Rise 20.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% Real Rise 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 33.3% 33.3% Real Rise 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Real Rise 9.1% 15.4% 0.0% Real Rise 26.3% 12.5% 33.3% 66.7% 20.0%
Fake Fall 20.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% Fake Fall 33.3% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 16.7% 33.3% Fake Fall 50.0% 33.3% 66.7% 75.0% 33.3% 0.0% Fake Fall 59.1% 53.8% 66.7% Fake Fall 26.3% 50.0% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Real Fall 40.0% 50.0% 16.7% 100.0% Real Fall 26.7% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% Real Fall 35.7% 33.3% 33.3% 25.0% 66.7% 0.0% Real Fall 27.3% 30.8% 22.2% Real Fall 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0%
Fake Rise 20.0% 50.0% 16.7% 0.0% Fake Rise 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% Fake Rise 7.1% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Fake Rise 4.5% 0.0% 11.1% Fake Rise 42.1% 37.5% 33.3% 0.0% 80.0%
Total 10 2 6 2 Total 15 2 2 2 6 3 Total 14 3 3 4 3 1 Total 22 13 9 Total 19 8 3 3 5
Interest Related dan Discretionary Consumer Related layak menjadi pilihan utama hari ini Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Toll, Mineral dan Bank Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Telecom, Construction dan Residential Waspadai sektor : Cigarettes, Poultry, Industrial Area dan Oil&Gas
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 25 August 2017 Technical Analysis Glossary Support
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan penurunan lebih lanjut
Resistance
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan kenaikan lebih lanjut
Breakout
: Pergerakan harga melewati Resistance dari bawah ke atas. Mengindikasikan Uptrend
Breakdown
: Pergerakan harga melewati Support dari atas ke bawah. Mengindikasikan Downtrend
Throwback
: Penurunan paksa terjadi Breakout dimana maksimum penurunan adalah Support yang berasal dari Resistance yang baru saja di-Breakout
Pullback
: Kenaikan paska terjadi Breakdown dimana maksimum kenaikan adalah Resistance yang berasal dari Support yang baru saja di-Breakdown
Technical Rebound
: Kenaikan sementara di tengah Downtrend. Kenaikan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari penurunan yang segera terjadi
Technical Correction : Penurunan sementara di tengah Uptrend. Penurunan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari kenaikan yang segera terjadi Bullish Continuation
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut
Bearish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bullish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Uptrend
Bearish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Downtrend
Up Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Down Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Day Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period selama 1 hari sampai 2 minggu
Swing Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period sampai 3 bulan
Bottom Fishing
: Strategi trading dengan membeli saham yang telah turun cukup dalam
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Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
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+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Economist
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Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
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Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
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+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
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+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
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Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
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Nadya Swastika
Research Associate
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Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
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Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
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Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
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Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
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Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
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Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
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Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
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Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
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Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
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Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
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Aben Epapras
Marketing
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Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
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