Analisa Teknikal
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian Samuel Research
31 Juli 2017
Penentuan Akhir Koreksi Atau Awal Downtrend
Dengan konsisten berada di atas 5,800 dalam 3 hari berturut – turut, IHSG menunjukkan pola Bullish Continuation sehingga terbuka peluang untuk terus melanjutkan Uptrend sampai menuju Rp6,100, target awal ketika terjadi Breakout 5,860. Dengan demikian, sangat mungkin IHSG sedang mempersiapkan awal Uptrend terutama di awal Agust’17. Perlu diwaspadai penurunan di bawah 5,800. Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Coal, Oil&Gas dan Construction. Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Toll, Residential dan Cement. Waspadai sektor : Poultry, Retail, Industrial Area dan CPO. Day Trading Recommendation LQ45 : PTBA Non-LQ45 : ISAT dan CTRA Swing Trading Recommendation Add : No Change Drop : No Change Concern :
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Commodity Related : Oil&Gas (MEDC), Coal (ITMG) Consumer Related : Retail (MAPI) Infrastructure Related : Telecom (TLKM), Toll (JSMR) Interest Related : Bank (BBCA, BBTN, BBRI)
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 31 July 2017
Day Trading Recommendation Saham
Last Price
1D %Ch
Supp.1
Supp.2
Resist.1
Resist.2
Daily Target
Cut Loss
ISAT
6400
1.2
6300
6200
6450
6500
6530
6280
PTBA
13175
1.5
13070
12960
13240
13310
13450
12925
CTRA
1025
0.5
1000
980
1040
1050
1050
1005
Tidak ada yang masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation
Swing Trading Recommendation
Stock
1st Add Date
1st Add Open Price
Latest Close
% Change Since Add
Estimated Target
% Upside Potential Since Last Close
Entry Timing
ITMG
7-Jul-17
18,350
20,525
11.9%
25,000
21.8%
Now
MEDC
18-Jul-17
2,450
2,700
10.2%
3,800
40.7%
Now
MAPI
3-Mar-17
5,350
6,150
15.0%
7,650
24.4%
Wait
TLKM
23-May-17
4,500
4,700
4.4%
5,400
14.9%
Now
JSMR
8-May-17
4,750
5,700
20.0%
6,200
8.8%
Wait
BBCA
23-Mar-17
16,400
18,800
14.6%
20,500
9.0%
Wait
BBRI
26-Apr-17
13,150
14,500
10.3%
16,800
15.9%
Wait
BBTN
16-Jan-17
1,900
2,590
36.3%
2,900
12.0%
Wait
ITMG, MEDC dan TLKM dapat dijadikan alternatif pilihan
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 31 July 2017
Recommendation Charts ISAT (Rp6,400) : Mengawali Uptrend Menuju Rp7,000 Dengan Breakout Rp6,500
ISAT berpotensi mengakhiri Bottoming dan mengawali Uptrend menuju Rp7,000 dengan Breakout Rp6,500. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp6,250 PTBA (Rp13,175) : Uptrend Menuju Rp15,200 Dengan Breakout Rp13,700 dan Rp14,200
PTBA berpotensi melanjutkan Uptrend menuju Rp15,200 dengan Breakout Resistance di area Rp13,700 - Rp14,200. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp13,000
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 31 July 2017
CTRA (Rp1,025) : Bottoming di Rp980 Untuk Membuka Peluang Bullish Reversal
CTRA berpotensi Bottoming di Rp980 dan berpotensi naik sebagai Technical Rebound menuju Rp1,080 yang juga membuka peluang Bullish Reversal. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp980
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 31 July 2017
Sectoral Movement
Benchmark IHSG Relation / Sector Staples Cigarettes FMCG Poultry Relation / Sector Discretionary Auto Healthcare Pharmacy Retail Media Relation / Sector Infrastructure Cement Telecom Construction Industrial Area Toll Relation / Sector Interest Banking Residential Relation / Sector Commodity Coal CPO Mineral Oil&Gas
1D %Ch 0.19 1D %Ch 0.11 1.02 0.78 (1.45) 1D %Ch (0.22) 0.12 (0.15) 0.90 (1.30) (0.66) 1D %Ch 0.97 0.09 0.76 3.54 (1.02) 1.50 1D %Ch (0.15) 0.10 (0.39) 1D %Ch 0.90 3.08 (1.02) 0.12 1.41
5D %Ch 1.14 5D %Ch (2.79) 1.90 0.70 (10.98) 5D %Ch (0.84) (2.96) 2.05 (1.09) (0.52) (1.68) 5D %Ch 1.84 (0.16) 3.27 1.98 0.43 3.66 5D %Ch 0.55 2.05 (0.95) 5D %Ch 1.77 0.16 (3.21) 5.75 4.39
Real Rise 15.4% 50.0% 12.5% 0.0% Real Rise 23.5% 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% 14.3% 33.3% Real Rise 36.8% 25.0% 33.3% 80.0% 0.0% 50.0% Real Rise 26.3% 25.0% 27.3% Real Rise 59.1% 100.0% 33.3% 25.0% 60.0%
Fake Fall 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% Fake Fall 23.5% 33.3% 50.0% 0.0% 14.3% 33.3% Fake Fall 31.6% 50.0% 33.3% 20.0% 20.0% 50.0% Fake Fall 31.6% 12.5% 45.5% Fake Fall 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 0.0%
Real Fall 53.8% 50.0% 50.0% 66.7% Real Fall 41.2% 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% 57.1% 33.3% Real Fall 26.3% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 80.0% 0.0% Real Fall 36.8% 50.0% 27.3% Real Fall 27.3% 0.0% 66.7% 25.0% 20.0%
Fake Rise 23.1% 0.0% 37.5% 0.0% Fake Rise 11.8% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% Fake Rise 5.3% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Fake Rise 5.3% 12.5% 0.0% Fake Rise 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 20.0%
Commodity Related kembali dapat menjadi pilihan utama hari ini. Infrastructure Related pun dapat menjadi pilihan alternatif Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Coal, Oil&Gas dan Construction Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Toll, Residential dan Cement Waspadai sektor : Poultry, Retail, Industrial Area dan CPO
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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian 31 July 2017 Technical Analysis Glossary Support
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan penurunan lebih lanjut
Resistance
: Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan kenaikan lebih lanjut
Breakout
: Pergerakan harga melewati Resistance dari bawah ke atas. Mengindikasikan Uptrend
Breakdown
: Pergerakan harga melewati Support dari atas ke bawah. Mengindikasikan Downtrend
Throwback
: Penurunan paksa terjadi Breakout dimana maksimum penurunan adalah Support yang berasal dari Resistance yang baru saja di-Breakout
Pullback
: Kenaikan paska terjadi Breakdown dimana maksimum kenaikan adalah Resistance yang berasal dari Support yang baru saja di-Breakdown
Technical Rebound
: Kenaikan sementara di tengah Downtrend. Kenaikan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari penurunan yang segera terjadi
Technical Correction : Penurunan sementara di tengah Uptrend. Penurunan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari kenaikan yang segera terjadi Bullish Continuation
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut
Bearish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bullish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Uptrend
Bearish Reversal
: Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Downtrend
Up Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Down Trendline
: Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Day Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period selama 1 hari sampai 2 minggu
Swing Trading
: Strategi trading dengan Holding Period sampai 3 bulan
Bottom Fishing
: Strategi trading dengan membeli saham yang telah turun cukup dalam
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Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
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Rangga Cipta
Economist
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Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
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Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
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+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
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+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
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Nadya Swastika
Research Associate
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Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
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Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
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Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
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Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
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Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
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Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
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Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
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Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
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Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
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Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
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Aben Epapras
Marketing
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Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
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