RISET SAHAM HARIAN Samuel Equity Research
Monday, 09 May 2016
Market Activity
IHSG diwarnai beragam sentimen
Monday, 09 May 2016 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume Market Value
: 4,822.6 : +10.3 (+0.2%) : 3,532 Mn shrs : 4,222 Bn rupiah
Last Close
Changes +/%
Leading Movers UNVR 45,150 TLKM 3,490 HMSP 99,975 INTP 19,400
1375 50 1075 550
3.1 1.5 1.1 2.9
Lagging Movers BBRI 10,350 BMRI 9,700 PGAS 2,460 UNTR 14,200
-175 -150 -50 -300
-1.7 -1.5 -2.0 -2.1
Foreign Net Buy / Sell Net Buy (Rpbn) GGRM 46 BBNI 23 ICBP 21 UNVR 19 BBTN 17
Net Sell (Rpbn) TLKM 94 ASII 85 BBRI 45 PTBA 24 PGAS 24
Last Close 13,240 5.0 -0.5
Dual Listing Securities Last Close TLKM 52.4 ISAT 34.5 EIDO 22.4
Changes +/% 45.0 -0.3 0.1 -
menjadi sentimen negatif di bursa AS. Namun, sentimen positif datang dari kenaikan harga minyak dunia seiring ekspektasi menurunnya supply oil sands dari Kanada akibat kebakaran besar di negara itu.
Setelah libur panjang kemarin, IHSG hari ini berpotensi dipengaruhi beragam sentimen dan cenderung melemah. Selain dari yang disebutkan di atas, USD index yang menguat dan pertumbuhan ekonomi 1Q16 dalam negeri yang di bawah
kemarin, S&P500 dan EIDO tercatat melemah masing-masing sekitar 0,3% dan 1,3%. Bursa di regional dibuka mixed pagi ini.
Changes +/% -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.4
World Indices
DJIA S&P 500 Euro Stoxx MSCI World Nikkei Hang Seng
payrolls pada jumat lalu yang lebih buruk dari ekspektasi
5% menekan nilai tukar rupiah saat ini. Sepanjang libur IHSG
Money Market
USD/IDR JIBOR O/N Infl (MoM)
Data klaim pengangguran pada kamis lalu dan non-farm
Last Close 17,741 2,057 2,937 1,643 16,107 20,110
Changes +/% 80 0.5 7 0.3 -4 -0.1 2 0.1 -41 -0.3 -340 -1.7
Last Close 46 2,628 51 9,032 17,476
Changes +/% 1.0 2.1 -1.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 45.5 0.5 75.0 0.4
Highlights
ELSA
: Sediakan dana Rp50 miliar
SUGI
: Masih mampu membayar kewajiban
Properti
: Masih mengalami pelemahan
Infrastructure: Tol Cikampek II ditenderkan
Commodities
WTI Oil CPO Malay Coal Newc Nickel Tin
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DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
ELSA: Sediakan dana Rp50 miliar PT Elnusa Tbk. (ELSA) bersiap menggelontorkan dana Rp400 – Rp500 miliar untuk ekspansi bisnis tahun ini. Anak usaha dari PT Pertamina (Persero) tersebut akan memakai dana tersebut untuk membeli alat baru dan meremajakan alat lama. Mayoritas dari sumber dana belanja tahun ini, yakni sebesar 70%, akan berasal dari utang bank, dan sisanya 30% berasal dari kas internal. ELSA juga akan berburu kontrak luar negeri berupa pekerjaan memelihara sumur dan menjual karya pabrikasi. Adapun negara-negara yang dibidik antara lain: Myanmar, Vietnam, Brunei Darussalam, Timur Tengah, dan Afrika. (Kontan) ELSA: Non-coverage, 16E’PE:9.3x, PBV: 1.2x. SUGI: Masih mampu membayar kewajiban Anak usaha dari PT Sugih Energy TbK, Petroselat Ltd, masih mampu untuk menyelesaikan kewajibannya kepada PT Richland Logistics Indonesia dan PT Sentosasegara Mulia Shipping dengan masing masing sebesar US$ 402.027 dan US$ 448.442. Petroselat merupakan anak usaha SUGI yang menjadi operator blok Selat Panjang yang berlokasi di Riau. Kepemilikan sahamnya terdiri dari 55% milik SUGI dan sisanya dikuasai PetroChina International SelatPanjang Ltd. SUGI melihat dengan adanya gas alam produksi Petroselat yang di jual kepada PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero) dan beberapa kontrak dengan perusahaan lainnya, Petroselat masih mampu untuk membayar kewajibannya. (Bisnis Indonesia) Non-coverage. Infrastructure: Tol Cikampek II ditenderkan Kementerian PUPera lewat Badan Pengatur Jalan Tol (BPJT) tengah menyiapkan tender tol Cikampek II yang bertujuan untuk mengurangi kepadatan lalu lintas. JSMR dengan menggandeng PT Wira Nusantara Bumi Tollroad Development Consultant (Wira) mendirikan konsorsium dimana JSMR menguasai 60% dan sisanya dikuasai Wira. Konsorsium tersebut mengikuti tender proyek ini, dimana JSMR merupakan inisiatornya. Total nilai investasi proyek ini sebesar Rp 12-15 triliun namun angkanya masih bisa berubah. BPJT menyatakan ada beberapa perusahaan lain yang juga berminat menggarap proyek ini seperti Grup Astra, Grup Kompas Gramedia, PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk (CMNP), dan PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (META). (Kontan) Infrastructure: Overweight.
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Page 2 of 6
Properti: Masih mengalami pelemahan Diberitakan bahwa kinerja 1Q16 emiten properti secara umum menurun secara yoy seiring kelesuan di sektor ini. Sejumlah analis menyatakan sejumlah kebijakan yang diterapkan pemerintah belum dapat mendorong sektor ini hingga saat ini. Penerapan tax amnesty, apabila diberlakukan, diperkirakan akan mendorong performa sektor properti. Emiten-emiten besar umumnya mencetak penurunan laba bersih di 1Q16, seperti CTRA (-37%yoy), BSDE (-67%yoy), dan SMRA (-89%yoy). PWON berhasil mencatatkan kenaikan laba bersih 65% terutama akibat forex gain. (Kontan) Property: Neutral.
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Page 3 of 6
Ticker
Rec.
JCI Wgt Last price (%)
1D Chg 1M Chg YTD Chg TP Cons
(Rp)
(%)
(%)
PE
TP SSI
Upside
(%)
(Rp)
(Rp)
(%)
16E
PBV
ROE
EV/EBITDA (x)
17E
16E
17E
16E
17E
16E
17E
Banks BMRI
HOLD
4.4
9700
(1.5)
(1.5)
4.9
10609
10200
5.2
10.1
8.5
1.7
1.5
16.8%
17.4%
n/a
n/a
BBCA
HOLD
6.3
13100
0.4
0.2
(1.5)
14388
13900
6.1
17.2
14.6
3.1
2.7
18.1%
18.2%
n/a
n/a
BBRI
HOLD
5.0
10350
(1.7)
(4.2)
(9.4)
12076
11500
11.1
10.0
8.7
2.0
1.7
19.5%
19.2%
n/a
n/a
1.7
4620
(0.2)
(11.2)
(7.4)
5775
5500
19.0
7.7
6.4
1.0
0.9
13.1%
14.0%
n/a
n/a 15.2
BBNI HOLD Consumer (Staples) ICBP
BUY
1.8
15350
0.3
1.5
13.9
16657
16500
7.5
26.0
23.4
5.1
4.6
19.7%
19.5%
17.8
INDF
BUY
1.2
7200
0.0
(0.3)
39.1
8361
8000
11.1
16.9
13.8
2.1
1.9
12.6%
14.0%
8.9
7.9
KLBF
BUY
1.2
1340
(0.4)
(6.9)
1.5
1475
1610
20.1
29.1
24.4
5.4
4.7
18.5%
19.4%
19.1
16.0
ROTI
BUY
0.1
1455
3.9
16.9
15.0
1462
1500
3.1
26.9
18.0
5.2
4.2
19.2%
23.3%
12.9
11.4
ULTJ UNVR
BUY HOLD
0.2 6.7
4100 45150
(1.9) 3.1
7.2 5.0
3.9 22.0
n/a 40374
5000 39000
22.0 -13.6
18.7 53.2
15.6 48.6
4.2 64.6
3.5 57.9
22.6% 22.5% 121.5% 119.1%
11.7 37.6
10.0 34.5
HMSP
HOLD
9.1
99975
1.1
1.0
6.4
103431
109750
9.8
39.3
35.1
13.1
11.9
33.3%
33.8%
26.6
24.3
GGRM
BUY
2.6
67900
(0.3)
2.9
23.5
75944
77150
13.6
20.0
18.6
3.0
2.7
15.2%
14.5%
14.4
13.6
Healthcare MIKA
BUY
0.7
2530
(2.7)
2.2
5.4
2702
2950
16.6
55.0
48.7
10.2
9.3
18.6%
19.0%
29.7
26.7
SILO
HOLD
0.2
8800
(1.1)
3.5
(10.2)
10750
8600
-2.3
125.7
96.7
5.6
5.4
4.5%
5.6%
15.2
12.4 6.0
Cigarette
Retail MAPI
BUY
0.1
4200
0.2
(4.5)
10.7
5100
5800
38.1
22.6
13.5
2.1
1.8
9.2%
13.4%
7.5
RALS
HOLD
0.1
695
0.7
(0.7)
7.8
802
700
0.7
13.6
12.6
1.4
1.3
10.3%
10.5%
9.8
8.7
ACES
BUY
0.3
895
(1.1)
7.8
8.5
927
1000
11.7
23.6
19.0
4.8
4.0
20.5%
21.0%
17.2
15.3
Telco EXCL
BUY
0.6
3520
2.0
(9.7)
(3.6)
4654
4600
30.7
21.7
19.2
1.9
1.8
8.9%
9.6%
5.8
5.0
ISAT
HOLD
0.7
6400
(0.4)
2.8
16.4
7160
6600
3.1
29.0
19.5
2.6
2.3
8.9%
12.0%
4.2
3.7
TLKM
HOLD
6.9
3490
1.5
1.8
12.9
3842
3500
0.3
21.0
18.7
4.3
3.8
20.5%
20.5%
6.9
6.3
HOLD HOLD
5.3 1.0
6650 14200
0.8 (2.1)
(7.6) (9.3)
10.8 (16.2)
7142 15444
6800 16700
2.3 17.6
14.6 10.1
13.0 9.6
2.6 1.3
2.3 1.2
17.6% 12.7%
17.8% 12.5%
12.7 3.2
12.3 2.8
GIAA Property
BUY
0.2
434
0.9
(10.5)
40.5
476
490
12.9
9.1
8.8
0.7
0.7
7.2%
7.7%
3.9
3.8
Auto and HE ASII UNTR Aviation
BSDE
BUY
0.7
1795
1.7
(3.0)
(0.3)
2162
1950
8.6
14.0
11.4
1.6
1.3
11.1%
11.8%
10.4
9.1
PWON
BUY
0.5
505
(1.9)
(1.9)
1.8
557
590
16.8
18.0
16.8
3.1
2.7
17.0%
15.8%
7.2
6.2
KPIG ASRI
BUY HOLD
0.2 0.1
1245 380
0.4 (3.1)
(2.4) (1.6)
(11.7) 10.8
n/a 373
1810 350
45.4 -7.9
29.0 11.5
24.4 9.5
1.0 1.0
1.0 1.0
3.5% 9.1%
4.1% 10.1%
n/a 5.9
n/a 5.1
SMRA
BUY
0.4
1435
(3.0)
(9.5)
(13.0)
1753
1750
22.0
22.1
21.1
2.6
2.3
11.8%
11.0%
9.7
8.8
Construction PTPP HOLD
0.3
3630
(1.9)
(4.6)
(6.3)
4663
4000
10.2
21.6
17.8
5.0
4.1
23.1%
23.2%
9.4
8.2
HOLD BUY
0.2 0.7
2600 2550
(3.0) 4.5
(5.8) 17.0
21.5 52.7
3299 2439
2700 2200
3.8 -13.7
24.3 41.8
20.2 32.7
1.9 3.6
1.7 3.3
7.6% 8.6%
8.6% 10.0%
7.6 22.0
6.6 18.7
BUY
0.3
2560
(3.0)
(3.4)
(3.0)
3024
3300
28.9
21.0
17.5
3.2
2.9
15.4%
16.4%
9.4
8.1
BUY BUY HOLD
1.4 1.1 0.2
19400 9825 1075
2.9 0.3 0.9
(4.0) (5.8) (1.4)
(13.1) (13.8) 8.0
19886 11687 1031
22500 13700 950
16.0 39.4 -11.6
14.4 11.1 -1075.0
12.4 10.0 89.6
2.7 2.0 1.0
2.5 1.8 1.0
18.8% 17.9% -0.1%
19.9% 17.9% 1.1%
9.4 5.9 10.9
7.9 4.9 8.9
BUY
1.2
2460
(2.0)
(8.6)
(10.4)
3125
3400
38.2
12.0
11.3
1.6
1.5
12.9%
12.9%
7.0
6.2
JSMR BUY Coal and Metal ANTM SELL
0.7
5425
(0.9)
1.4
3.8
6342
6500
19.8
22.6
21.3
3.1
2.9
13.9%
13.7%
11.8
11.3
ADHI WSKT WIKA Cement INTP SMGR SMCB Utility PGAS
0.4
770
3.4
19.4
145.2
359
375
-51.3
-42.8
70.0
1.4
1.3
-3.2%
1.9%
32.6
25.9
INCO TINS
BUY HOLD
0.3 0.1
1735 715
(4.1) (1.4)
(5.4) (15.9)
6.1 41.6
1572 470
2400 650
38.3 -9.1
63.6 17.4
15.9 14.3
0.7 0.9
0.7 0.9
1.1% 5.1%
4.2% 6.0%
99.1 5.3
66.6 4.6
ITMG ADRO
BUY HOLD
0.2 0.5
7850 720
(0.6) 0.7
14.2 2.1
37.1 39.8
5696 716
9000 700
14.6 -2.8
7.2 12.9
5.8 10.0
0.7 0.5
0.7 0.5
10.3% 3.8%
12.8% 4.8%
2.1 10.4
1.7 7.9
PTBA Plantation AALI
BUY
0.3
6600
(4.0)
0.8
45.9
7228
7800
18.2
9.2
7.3
1.4
1.3
15.6%
17.7%
6.9
5.2
BUY
0.5
15725
(2.9)
(6.7)
(0.8)
19197
20000
27.2
18.9
16.2
2.0
1.8
10.4%
11.1%
11.6
10.5
LSIP SIMP
BUY BUY
0.2 0.1
1535 484
2.0 0.0
(11.5) 7.1
16.3 45.8
1767 576
1800 550
17.3 13.6
12.2 14.2
10.2 12.1
1.3 0.5
1.2 0.5
10.6% 3.6%
11.7% 4.1%
6.2 5.9
5.1 5.5
CPIN
HOLD
1.2
3750
2.5
3.6
44.2
3590
4000
6.7
23.6
19.3
4.3
3.7
18.4%
19.4%
n/a
n/a
JPFA
BUY
0.2
905
1.1
9.7
42.5
1068
1150
27.1
12.1
10.8
1.5
1.3
12.1%
11.7%
8.5
7.3
0.1
1415
(0.4)
8.8
(7.2)
1628
1500
6.0
18.6
10.6
1.5
1.3
8.0%
12.6%
n/a
n/a
(17.8)
7562
7000
18.6
19.2
16.6
3.3
2.9
17.4%
17.7%
14.0
11.3
Poultry
MAIN HOLD Other Sectors
AKRA HOLD 0.5 5900 (2.5) (12.6) Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Note: GIAA, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, INCO report in USD.
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Page 4 of 6
Regional Indices
1D Change Points
World
2.03
Last Price
Change (%)
1 Year
1D
3D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
1,643
0.12
(0.05)
(1.94)
0.67
10.39
(1.18)
(8.44)
1,814
1,460
U.S. (S&P)
6.51
2,057
0.32
(0.30)
(0.40)
0.47
11.06
0.65
(2.79)
2,135
1,810
U.S. (DOW)
79.92
17,741
0.45
(0.06)
(0.19)
0.93
10.78
1.81
(2.48)
18,351
15,370
Europe
(3.51)
2,937
(0.12)
(1.26)
(3.02)
0.85
7.32
(10.12)
(19.53)
3,714
2,673
Emerging Market
(4.12)
805
(0.51)
(1.01)
(3.62)
(1.41)
10.34
1.41
(22.18)
1,046
687
FTSE 100
8.45
6,126
0.14
(0.97)
(3.11)
(1.27)
8.76
(1.87)
n/a
7,084
5,500
CAC 40
(18.22)
4,301
(0.42)
(1.62)
(2.88)
(0.04)
7.60
(7.24)
(15.50)
5,218
3,892
Dax
18.09
9,870
0.18
(0.57)
(1.68)
2.57
11.16
(8.13)
(15.71)
11,920
8,699
Indonesia
10.33
4,823
0.21
(0.33)
(0.48)
(0.73)
0.49
5.00
(6.54)
5,347
4,034
149.70
16,256
0.93
(2.46)
(6.32)
2.75
1.06
(14.59)
(16.11)
20,953
14,866
Australia
20.05
5,312
0.38
0.78
1.32
7.58
9.93
0.31
(5.72)
5,803
4,707
Korea
(2.09)
1,975
(0.11)
(0.18)
(1.31)
0.61
2.96
0.68
(7.39)
2,149
1,801
Singapore Malaysia
(37.01) 4.27
2,731 1,649
(1.34) 0.26
(2.86) (0.13)
(4.59) (1.52)
(2.76) (4.02)
4.10 (0.79)
(5.27) (2.55)
(20.89) (8.76)
3,473 1,824
2,528 1,504
Hong Kong
(339.95)
20,110
(1.66)
(2.74)
(5.98)
(1.28)
4.26
(8.23)
(27.08)
28,525
18,279
China Taiwan
(84.59) (21.53)
2,913 8,146
(2.82) (0.26)
(2.65) (1.78)
(1.10) (3.86)
(2.40) (4.63)
5.42 1.03
(17.69) (2.30)
(30.73) (15.95)
5,178 9,797
2,638 7,203
(7.17) (7.88)
1,391 6,992
(0.51) (0.11)
(0.66) (0.78)
(1.98) (2.34)
1.25 (3.52)
6.46 5.34
7.97 0.57
(8.91) (9.94)
1,536 7,923
1,221 6,084
1D Change Points
Last Price
0.08 n/a
5.00 107.54
n/a
(0.45)
n/a
0.00 0.02
0.50 7.78
0.00 1.79
Japan
Thailand Philipines Monetary Indicators JIBOR Overnight (%) Foreign Reserve (US$bn) Inflation Rate (%) US Fed Rate (%) Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - % Exchange Rate (per US$)
1D Change
Currency
Points
Indonesia Japan
45.00 0.33
UK Euro China Commodities Indicators
Last Price
Change (%)
1 Year
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
0.24 n/a
(0.23) 2.87
(22.51) 1.52
(34.19) 1.52
(12.99) (3.60)
8.26 110.77
4.89 100.24
(336.84) (188.24) (146.88) (225.00) 0.00 2.07
0.96
(0.45)
0.00 (3.02)
0.00 (11.01)
100.00 (2.22)
0.50 9.90
0.25 7.40
Change (%)
1 Year
1D
3D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
13240 107.45
(0.34) (0.31)
(0.32) (0.41)
(0.38) (0.97)
(0.54) 0.46
4.14 11.88
4.14 11.88
(1.94) 11.75
14,736 125.86
12,978 105.55
(0.00) (0.00)
1.44 1.14
(0.06) (0.16)
(0.53) (0.88)
(1.73) (1.28)
1.26 (0.19)
(2.15) 4.82
(2.15) 4.82
(7.49) 2.07
1.59 1.17
1.38 1.05
(0.01)
6.50
0.22
(0.02)
(0.28)
(0.23)
(0.04)
(0.04)
(4.54)
6.60
6.19
46.13
1D 1.68
3D 3.38
1W 0.65
1M 9.99
3M 52.14
YTD 23.74
1YR (29.45)
High 68.17
Low 27.10
1D Change
Last Price
Change (%)
1 Year
Spot Oil
Points 0.76
CPO
(1.00)
2,628.00
(0.04)
3.51
1.04
(3.45)
1.86
5.75
20.38
2,793.00
1,863.00
Rubber Coal
(3.00) (0.15)
701.50 50.65
(0.43) (0.30)
(0.92) (0.30)
(1.41) (0.20)
2.78 1.20
30.03 (1.84)
30.03 0.10
4.94 (18.70)
728.50 62.30
506.50 48.80
Iron Ore
(1.80)
63.40
(2.76)
(3.65)
0.79
18.73
51.31
46.08
9.69
132.60
37.50
Tin
75.00
17,476.00
0.43
1.00
1.95
5.77
14.96
19.77
8.08
17,625.00
13,223.80
Nickel
45.00
9,065.00
0.50
(4.78)
(2.47)
5.53
11.09
2.78
(35.11)
14,520.00
7,550.00
Copper Gold
25.00 (6.60)
4,810.00 1,287.40
0.52 (0.51)
(2.24) 1.02
(2.67) (0.65)
0.50 3.61
3.89 7.40
2.23 21.43
(24.73) 8.28
6,459.00 1,306.00
4,318.00 1,046.20
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
www.samuel.co.id
Page 5 of 6
Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research
Adrianus Bias Prasuryo Senior Analyst
Strategy, Banking, Consumer
Cement,Construction, Utility
+6221 2854 8148
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Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Senior Analyst
Marlene Tanumihardja Analyst
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst
Auto, Heavy Equipment, Property, Cigarette, Media, Aviation, Healthcare
Retail, Poultry, Consumer, Small Cap
Indices, Equities, Commodities, Currencies, Fixed Income
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[email protected] Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Analyst Mining, Plantation
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Rangga Cipta Economist +6221 2854 8396
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Adde Chandra Kurniawan Research Associate +6221 2854 8338
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Equity Sales Team Kelvin Long Director of Equities +6221 2854 8150
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Evelyn Satyono Head of Institutional Equity Sales +6221 2854 8148
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Lucia Irawati Head of Retail Equity Sales +6221 2854 8173
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Ferry Khusaeri Equity Sales +6221 2854 8304
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Indra S. Affandi Senior Institutional Sales +6221 2854 8334
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Peter Hamsja Equity Sales +6221 2854 8325
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Jovita Widjaja Equity Sales +6221 2854 8314
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Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales +6221 2854 8395
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Iwan Setiadi Equity Sales +6221 2854 8313
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James Wihardja Equity Sales +6221 2854 8397
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