WEEKLY REVIEW TRUST 23 - 27 September 2013
Indikator Pasar
Ulasan Pasar Pergerakan IHSG
Foreign Nett Buy
Thousands 8,000
7,294.126 6,000 4,000
3,326.620 2,083.121
2,000
624.096
735.660 0
960.946
-23.364
-2,000 -4,000 -3,982.571 -6,000
IHSG memperpanjang penguatannya di pekan kemarin..... IHSG mampu memperpanjang laju positifnya selama sepekan kemarin. Imbas dari adanya rilis beberapa data ekonomi AS membuat laju bursa saham AS menghijau dan memberikan pengaruh positif bagi laju bursa saham Asia, termasuk IHSG. Dengan masih adanya data-data AS yang kurang baik akan membuat pengurangan sitmulus The Fed akan dilakukan secara moderat dan tidak radikal. Pelaku pasar memanfaatkan kondisi positif di awal pekan dengan kembali masuk pasar meski juga meninggalkan utang gap 4375-4403. Volume transaksi cukup tinggi di awal pekan dan diperbantukan dengan transaksi asing yang kembali tercatat nett buy sehingga membuka tren kenaikan jangka pendek. Sepanjang pekan kemarin, asing masih terkonspirasi lakukan nett buy sebesar Rp1,12 triliun atau lebih rendah dari sebelumnya Rp 2,08 triliun. Di awal pekan tampaknya beredar ekspektasi bahwa rapat FOMC nantinya akan menghasilkan keputusan yang lebih moderat. Adanya pembelian asing, turunnya yield SUN tenor 10 tahun, dan naiknya nilai forward Rupiah turut berimbas positif pada IHSG. Tetapi, pasca terbang tinggi di awal pekan, IHSG terkena profitisasi setelah terimbas pelemahan bursa saham Asia. Tampaknya sentimen jelang sidang FOMC mempertakut laju kenaikan lanjutan IHSG. Laju nilai tukar Rupiah yang kembali melemah, investor asing yang kembali jualan, dan pembukaan pasar saham Eropa yang negatif saat itu turut menghambat reli lanjutan IHSG. Adanya kenaikan pada beberapa saham 2nd liner dan sedikitnya saham-saham big caps yang menguat, ditambah lagi dengan imbas variatifnya bursa saham Asia dan pola doji teknikal yang terbentuk membuat IHSG tetap mendekam di zona merah. Kondisi berubah setelah rilis hasil sidang FOMC The Fed yang diluar perkiraan dimana memutuskan untuk melanjutkan bond buying program senilai US$85 miliar per bulan dan tetapnya suku bunga rendah AS di level 0,25%. Bahkan eforia yang berlebihan membuat IHSG melonjak signifikan dan kembali meninggalkan utang gap di level 4505-4576. Hijaunya mayoritas bursa saham Asia, kembalinya asing masuk, dan penurunan signifikan US$ terhadap Rupiah mendorong IHSG masuk ke zona hijau. Akan tetapi, di akhir pekan IHSG harus rela terkudeta oleh profitisasi. Rupiah mampu menghijau meski tipis sepanjang pekan kemarin. Meski transaksi forward Rupiah pada awal pekan mengalami kenaikan dan kabar bahwa pengurangan stimulus The Fed tidak akan signifikan namun, kurs tengah BI justru melemah setelah di akhir pekan sebelumnya menguat merespon kenaikan BI rate. Timbul kekhawatiran normalisasi moneter The Fed pekan kemarin akan sulit mengsinkronisasikan dengan laju Rupiah dan potensi perlambatan ekonomi Indonesia. Di sisi lain, laju US$ saat itu sedang melemah terhadap € namun, statusisasi Rupiah justru tetap negatif. Tampaknya, sentimen sidang FOMC mempertakut mata uang emerging market dimana laju US$ terlihat lebih tinggi dan menambah tekanan bagi laju Rupiah. Adanya kenaikan BI rate yang terjadi di minggu sebelumnya tampaknya sudah menjadi angin berlalu karena tertutupi dengan ekspektasi keputusan jelang sidang FOMC. Akhirnya, hasil sidang FOMC juga turut mempengaruhi positifnya laju pergerakan Rupiah. Perpanjangan stimulus The Fed dan masih bertahannya tingkat suku bunga rendah AS memberikan penilaian bahwa supply US$ di pasar masih akan bertambah. Dengan hasil sidang tersebut juga membuat permintaan akan mata uang yang dinilai save heaven kian berkurang dan dimanfaatkan pergerakan mata uang Asia yang mencoba rebound.
Estimasi Pergerakan IHSG Diperkirakan pekan depan, IHSG akan berada pada rentang Support 4325-4450 dan Resisten 4664-4798. IHSG membentuk pola menyerupai shooting star di bawah middle bollinger bands. MACD sedikit menurun dengan histogram negatif yang memendek. RSI, William's %R, dan Stochastic mencoba naik dari area oversold. IHSG mampu menjauhi target support (3995-4182), bahkan mampu melampaui target resisten (4465-4500). Secara teknikal masih ada harapan untuk melanjutkan kenaikannya namun, adanya hasrat konspirasi profitisasi kemungkinan akan memperlambat laju IHSG sehingga akan bergerak variatif cenderung melemah. Diharapkan rilis data-data manufaktur global dan laju Rupiah dapat lebih stabil sehingga mampu menahan laju pelemahan IHSG.
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Source: BI, IDX, Bloomberg, Reuters, Chartnexus
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WEEKLY REVIEW TRUST 23 - 27 September 2013
Stocks Focus
MPPA Open High Low Close
2,000 2,225 1,960 2,200
R1 R2 R3 Target R
TBIG Open High Low Close
5,650 5,950 5,500 5,650
R1 R2 R3 Target R
BoW : Buy on Weakness
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TB
2,233 2,361 2,498 2,360
Rec: S1 S2 S3 Target S
Rec: S1 S2 S3 Target S
TB
5,875 6,138 6,325 6,150
TB : Trading Buy
1,968 1,831 1,703 1,900
ACES Open High Low Close
5,425 5,238 4,975 5,300
PTPP Open High Low Close
720 810 720 750
1,170 1,270 1,080 1,220
R1 R2 R3 Target R
R1 R2 R3 Target R
TB
780 840 870 850
Rec: S1 S2 S3 Target S
TB
1,290 1,375 1,480 1,380
Rec: S1 S2 S3 Target S
690 660 600 670
1,100 995 910 1,000
TS : Trading Sell
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WEEKLY REVIEW TRUST 23 - 27 September 2013
Stocks Focus
ARNA Open High Low Close
TINS Open High Low Close
820 900 780 860
1,470 1,590 1,440 1,570
BoW : Buy on Weakness
R1 R2 R3 Target R
R1 R2 R3 Target R
TB
900 960 1,020 960
Rec: S1 S2 S3 Target S
TB
1,595 1,668 1,745 1,670
Rec: S1 S2 S3 Target S
TB : Trading Buy
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780 720 660 750
ADES Open High Low Close
1,445 1,368 1,295 1,370
TRAM Open High Low Close
2,650 2,750 2,475 2,600
1,490 1,590 1,480 1,590
R1 R2 R3 Target R
R1 R2 R3 Target R
TB
2,763 2,894 3,038 2,900
Rec: S1 S2 S3 Target S
TB
1,595 1,648 1,705 1,650
Rec: S1 S2 S3 Target S
2,488 2,344 2,213 2,350
1,485 1,428 1,375 1,470
TS : Trading Sell BAH : Buy and Hold
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WEEKLY REVIEW TRUST 23 - 27 September 2013
Kalender Ekonomi
Minggu IV September 2013
23 September 2013 Asia Pasific
Act
Frcst
HSBC Manufacturing PMI Prel CNY
Prev
Europe
Act
Frcst
50.1 Manufacturing PMI FRN Services PMI FRN Services PMI GRM Manufacturing PMI GRM
Prev
America
Act
Frcst
49.7 Markit Manufacturing PMI 48.9 52.8 51.8
53.9
Prev 53.1
24 September 2013 Asia Pasific
Act
Frcst
Prev
Europe
Act
Manufacturing PMI € Services PMI € IFO - Business Climate GRM IFO - Current Assessment GRM IFO - Business Expectations GRM
Frcst
107.95
Prev 51.4 50.7 107.5 112 103.3
America
Act
Frcst
Core Retail Sales MoM CAD Retail Sales YoY CAD Retail Sales MoM CAD Redbook MoM Redbook YoY House Price Index MoM House Price Index YoY S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prc Indice CB Consumer Confidence
3.27% 0.38%
Prev -0.80% 3.10% -0.60% -0.30% 3.40% 0.70% 7.70% 12.10% 81.5
25 September 2013 Asia Pasific
Act
Balance of Trade NZD Balance of Trade PHP
Frcst -222.3M -0.5B
Prev
Europe
Act
-774M GFK Consumer Confidence GRM -0.37B Business Confidence FRN Consumer Confidence ITA CBI Distributive Trades Srvy GBP
Frcst 91.39 99.18
Prev 6.9 90 98.9 27
America
Act
Frcst
Durable Goods Orders Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp New Home Sales MoM New Home Sales Change MoM
Prev -7.30% -0.60% 0.394M -13.40%
26 September 2013 Asia Pasific
Act
Consumer Confidence KRW
Frcst 104.71
Prev
Europe
Act
105 Consumer Confidence FRN Retail Sales MoM ITA Retail Sales YoY ITA Current Account GBP GDP Growth Rate QoQ GBP GDP Growth Rate YoY GBP
Frcst 86.26 0.06% -2.94% -13.7B 0.70% 1.50%
Prev 84.3 -0.20% -3.00% -14.51B 0.30% 0.30%
America
Act
Frcst
Continuing Jobless Claims Core PCE Prices QoQ GDP Price Index QoQ Personal Consumption Expend GDP Growth Rate QoQ Initial Jobless Claims Pending Home Sales MoM Pending Home Sales YoY EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
0.80% 0.00% 2.50% 295K
Prev 2.787M 1.40% 1.30% 1.10% 309K -1.30% 6.70%
27 September 2013 Asia Pasific
Act
Current Account KRW Inflation Rate MoM JPN Inflation Rate YoY JPN Core Inflation Rate YoY JPN Foreign Bond Investment JPN Foreign Investment in Jpn Stock JPN Current Account INR
Code: NZD JPN AUD IDR
N. Zealand Japan Australia Indonesia
CNY FRN GBP INR
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Frcst 3.1B -0.12% 0.28% -0.10%
-14.7B
China France England India
GRM CAD EUR ITA
Prev
Europe
Act
6.77B GFK Consumer Confidence GBP 0.20% GDP Growth Rate QoQ FRN 0.70% GDP Growth Rate YoY FRN Inflation Rate YoY SPN Retail Sales YoY SPN Business Confidence ITA -18.1B Business Confidence SPN Consumer Confidence € Business Confidence € Inflation Rate MoM GRM Inflation Rate YoY GRM
German Canada Eropa Italia
SPN PHP KRW SWD
Spanyol Philippine Sth. Korea Swedia
Frcst -13.58 0.50% 0.30% 1.64% -2.97% 93.31 -12 -0.12 0.19% 1.54%
Prev -13 -0.20% -0.40% 1.50% -3.80% 92.9 -11.8 -15.6 -0.21 0.00% 1.50%
America
Act
Frcst
Core PCE Prices MoM Personal Income MoM Personal Spending MoM PCE Prices MoM Reuters Michigan Consumer Sent
Act : Actual
76.8
Prev 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 82.1
Frcst : Forecast Prev : Previous
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WEEKLY REVIEW TRUST 23 - 27 September 2013
Corporate Action
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WEEKLY REVIEW TRUST 23 - 27 September 2013
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