WEEKLY REVIEW TRUST 3-7 Maret 2014

WEEKLY REVIEW TRUST 3 - 7 Maret 2014

Indikator Pasar

Ulasan Pasar Pergerakan IHSG 2.500

Foreign Nett Buy (Rp Jutaan)

2.000 1.500 1.000 0.623 0.500 0.000 1-Jan-14 8-Jan-14 15-Jan-14 22-Jan-14 29-Jan-14 5-Feb-14 12-Feb-14 19-Feb-14 26-Feb-14 -0.500 -1.000 -1.500

IHSG tercatat melemah sepanjang pekan kemarin..... Meski dalam dua hari terakhir, laju IHSG dapat kembali ke zona hijau namun, ternyata belum dapat mengimbangi pelemahan yang terjadi dalam perdagangan tiga hari sebelumnya. IHSG diwarnai berbagai macam sentimen dan yang terutama ialah sentimen dari penilaian terhadap posisi IHSG yang dinilai sudah overbought sehingga dimanfaatkannya untuk profit taking. Sepanjang pekan kemarin, asing masih tercatat nett buy sebesar Rp 1,131 triliun atau lebih rendah dari pekan sebelumnya senilai Rp3,63 triliun. Rilis penurunan tipis inflasi MoM dan Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index yang dapat diimbangi oleh rilis penurunan initial jobless claims, kenaikan markit manufacturing PMI, dan consumer spending AS di awal pekan memberikan imbas yang cukup positif pada laju bursa saham Asia. Tak ketinggalan IHSG pun turut menghijau meski banyak penilaian posisinya yang rawan profit taking. Masih adanya aksi beli, terutama investor asing pada beberapa saham perbankan lalu saham-saham konsumer serta lainnya memberikan tambahan sentimen positif. Akan tetapi, tidak selamanya IHSG dapat bertahan di zona hijau dan mulai mengalami pelemahan di hari-hari selanjutnya ketika laju bursa saham Asia mulai balik badan melemah pasca terjadinya sell off pada saham-saham properti dan konstruksi. Posisi IHSG yang saat itu nyaris bersentuhan dengan area overbought memang menggoda pelaku pasar untuk angkat jemuran sehingga IHSG pun akhirnya di zona merah. Penguatan Rupiah pun tidak mampu mempertahankan laju IHSG di zona hijau dan belum dapat mengimbangi derasnya aksi angkat jemuran tersebut yang lebih banyak dari sahamsaham Big cap. Bagusnya ialah dengan pelemahan tersebut, utang gap 4598-4613 terlunasi. Beberapa rilis kinerja keuangan emiten yang kami rasa masih inline dengan pasar seolah tidak mampu mengimbangi hasrat untuk angkat jemuran tersebut. Laju IHSG baru kembali menghijau setelah pelaku pasar memanfaatkan reboundnya laju bursa saham AS untuk kembali masuk pasar dan bagusnya ialah IHSG tidak melaju ke utang gap tersebut dan bertahan menghijau hingga akhir pekan. Laju nilai tukar Rupiah masih bertahan di zona hijau sepanjang pekan kemarin. Dalam beberapa pekan terakhir, Rupiah masih nyaman di jalur positifnya. Padahal di awal pekan sempat melemah tipis pasca kenaikan cukup signifikan. Rilis data-data positif dari AS, penurunan initial jobless claims, kenaikan markit manufacturing PMI, dan consumer spending langsung dimanfaatkan pelaku pasar untuk masuk pada US$. Di sisi lain, pelemahan Rupiah juga disebabkan oleh spekulasi bahwa The Fed akan tetap mempertahankan kebijakan pemotongan stimulusnya dan BoJ yang mempertahankan kebijakan pembelian obligasi. Laju nilai tukar Rupiah mampu sumringah setelah mendapat dukungan dari laju poundsterling (£) yang terapresiasi pasca merespon pernyataan dari Gubernur BoE, Mark Carney, yang mendukung upaya pemulihan ekonomi Inggris dan laju € yang menguat pasca dirilisnya data-data Jerman yang menunjukkan perbaikan. Selain itu, sentimen positif juga datang dari Meeting G20 yang terindikasi adanya upaya dan komitmen negara-negara G20 untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan global, rilis kenaikan nilai persetujuan mortgage Inggris, membaiknya data-data Jerman diikuti beberapa negara Euro lainnya, dan masih adanya penilaian akan peningkatan bertahap fund inflow seiring upaya Pemerintah Indonesia menjaga kondisi makroekonomi global. Laju Rupiah bertahan di atas support Rp12143. Rupiah Rp11757-11598 (kurs tengah BI).

Estimasi Pergerakan IHSG Diperkirakan pekan depan, IHSG akan berada pada rentang Support 4295-4387 dan Resisten 4476-4489. IHSG membentuk pola menyerupai double hammer di atas middle bollinger bands. MACD uptrend dengan histogram positif yang memanjang. RSI, William's %R, dan Stochastic masih uptrend terbatas. Laju IHSG sempat berada di antara kisaran target support (4269-4325) dan mampu berakhir di kisaran target resisten (4448-4476) sehingga memberikan potensi yang baik bagi IHSG bila ingin melanjutkan kenaikan. Meski IHSG masih diharapkan menguat namun, tetap mewaspadai utang-utang gap IHSG yang dapat membuat downreversal. Diharapkan sentimen yang ada masih dapat memberikan kesempatan IHSG untuk bertahan positif.

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Source: BI, IDX, Bloomberg, Reuters, yahoofinance.com

1


Stocks Focus

MAPI Open High Low Close

R1 R2 R3 Target R

7,150 7,275 7,550 7,275

Rec: S1 S2 S3 Target S

TS

7,000 7,000 6,600 6,900

AKRA Open High Low Close

R1 R2 R3 Target R

4,620 4,670 4,725 4,670


TB

4,575 4,615 4,510 4,560

BoW : Buy on Weakness

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TB : Trading Buy

6,750 6,475 6,350 6,475

4,515 4,460 4,410 4,460

BMRI Open High Low Close

R1 R2 R3 Target R

9,713 10,094 10,538 10,000


TS

9,500 9,650 8,825 9,100

TLKM Open High Low Close

R1 R2 R3 Target R

2,438 2,504 2,588 2,500


TS

2,400 2,420 2,270 2,325

8,888 8,444 8,063 8,500

2,288 2,204 2,138 2,200

TS : Trading Sell

2


Stocks Focus

CPIN Open High Low Close

ERAA Open High Low Close

4,060 4,245 4,060 4,235

1,480 1,525 1,435 1,440

BoW : Buy on Weakness

R1 R2 R3 Target R

R1 R2 R3 Target R

TB : Trading Buy

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TB

4,240 4,335 4,425 4,335

TS

1,505 1,560 1,595 1,560


4,055 3,965 3,870 3,965

1,415 1,380 1,325 1,380

LPCK Open High Low Close

TINS Open High Low Close

7,150 7,650 7,025 7,375

1,485 1,645 1,465 1,615

R1 R2 R3 Target R

R1 R2 R3 Target R


TS

7,575 7,925 8,200 7,925

TB

1,640 1,733 1,820 1,735


6,950 6,675 6,325 6,675

1,460 1,373 1,280 1,375

TS : Trading Sell BAH : Buy and Hold

3


Kalender Ekonomi

Minggu I Maret 2014

3 Maret 2014 Asia Pasific

Act

HSBC Manufacturing PMI KRW Non Manufacturing PMI CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI CNY AIG Manufacturing Index AUD ANZ Job Advertisment AUD HSBC Manufacturing PMI IND Balance of Trade IND Inflation Rate YoY IND Inflation Rate MoM IND HSBC Manufacturing PMI INR Capital Spending YoY JPN

Frcst

49.80 55.00 48.50 48.60 5.10% 50.50 -0.44B 7.75% 0.26% 52.50 4.00%

Prev

50.15 46.96 48.30 45.39 51.42 0B 7.04% 1.35% 51.70 5.10%

50.90 53.40 49.60 46.70 -1.40% 51.00 1.52B 8.22% 1.07% 51.40 1.50%

Europe

Act

Markit Manufacturing PMI SPN Markit/ADACI Manufacturing ITA Markit Manufacturing PMI FRN Markit/BME Manufacturing PMI GRM Markit Manufacturing PMI € Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI GBP Mortgage Approvals GBP Mortgage Lending GBP Halifax House Price MoM GBP Net Lending Individuals MoM GBP BoE Consumer Credit GBP ECB President Draghi's Speech €

52.50 52.30 49.70 54.80 53.20

Frcst

Prev

51.47 50.96 48.50 54.70 53.00 60.60 71.2K 1.8B 2.5B 0.7

52.20 53.10 49.30 56.50 54.00 56.70 71.6K 1.7B 1.10% 2.3B 0.6B

America

Act

Personal Income MoM Personal Spending MoM PCE Price Index YoY PCE Price Index MoM Core PCE Price Index YoY Core PCE Price Index MoM Markit Manufacturing PMI PPI MoM CAD PPI YoY CAD Raw Material Price MoM CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI CAD ISM Manufacturing PMI Construction Spending MoM ISM Prices Paid

Frcst -0.03% 0.56%

0.10% 56.70 1.00% -0.34% 51.63 56.45 -0.28% 56.20

Prev 0.00% 0.40% 1.10% 0.20% 1.20% 0.10% 53.70 0.70% 1.40% 1.90% 51.70 51.30 0.10% 60.50


Act

Frcst

Inflation Rate MoM KRW Inflation Rate YoY KRW Current Account AUD Building Permits MoM AUD

Prev

0.33% 1.04% -10.5B 2.58% 2.50%

RBA Interest Rate Decision AUD

Europe

Act

0.50% Construction PMI GBP 1.10% PPI MoM € -12.7B PPI YoY € -2.90% 2.50%

Frcst

Prev 63

-2.06%

America

Act

64.6 Total Vehicle Sales 0.20% Chain Store Sales YoY -0.80% Chain Store Sales WoW Redbook MoM

Frcst 15.9M

Redbook YoY IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism ISM New York Index

3.22% 41.07

Prev 15.24M 2.10% 2.50% -1.30% 2.90% 44.9 64.4


Act

Frcst

GDP Growth Rate QoQ AUD

Prev

0.55% 2.00% 0.61% 4.71% 51.65

GDP Growth Rate YoY AUD Inflation Rate MoM PHP Inflation Rate YoY PHP HSBC China Services PMI CNY HSBC India Services PMI INR AIG Services Index AUD

0.60% 2.30% 0.70% 4.20% 50.7

Europe

Act

Markit/ADACI Services PMI ITA

Markit Composite PMI FRN Markit Services PMI FRN Markit Services PMI GRM Markit Composite PMI GRM 48.3 Markit Services PMI € 49.3 Markit Composite PMI € Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI GBP Retail Sales MoM € Retail Sales YoY € GDP Growth Rate QoQ € GDP Growth Rate YoY € Retail Sales MoM FRN Retail Sales YoY FRN

46.03

Frcst

Prev

49.9 47.6 46.9 55.4 56.1 51.7 52.7 63.25 0.07% 0.56% 0.30% 0.50%

50.8 48.9 48.9 53.1 55.5 51.6 52.9 58.3 -1.60% -1.00% 0.10% -0.30%

0.51% 1.83%

-1.00% 0.40%

America

Act

ADP Employment Change

Frcst 205.5K 1.00% 52.7 54.28

BoC Interest Rate Decision CAD Markit Services PMI ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

Prev 175K 1.00% 56.7 54 0.068M


Act

Foreign Bond Investment JPN Stock Investment by Foreigner JPN Retail Sales MoM AUD Balance of Trade AUD Exports MoM AUD Imports MoM AUD

Frcst

Prev

166.7B 114.7B 0.48% -455.1M

Europe

Act

598.8B Unemployment Rate FRN 75.8B Factory Orders MoM GRM 0.50% BoE Interest Rate Decision GBP 468M BoE Quantitative Easing GBP 4.00% ECB Interest Rate Decision € 2.00% ECB MPC Stat and Press Conf €

Frcst 11.10% -0.64% 0.50% 0.25%

Prev 10.90% -0.50% 0.50% 375B 0.25%

America

Act

FED's Beige Book Challenger Job Cuts Continuing Jobless Claims Initial Jobless Claims Unit Labor Costs Factory Orders MoM EIA Natural Gas Stocks Chg Building Permits MoM CAD Ivey PMI S. A CAD

Frcst 53.3K 2847K 343K -1.10% -1.19% 1.00% 55.03

Prev 45.107K 2964K 348K -2.00% -1.50% -95B -4.10% 56.8


Act

Leading Composite Index JPN Coincident Index JPN Foreign Reserves INR Deposit Growth YoY INR Bank Loan Growth INR AIG Construction Index AUD RBA's Gov Stevens Speech AUD

Frcst

Prev

112.04 111.73

14.63%

111.7 111.7 293.41B 15.60% 14.80% 48.2

Europe

Act

Budget Balance FRN Balance of Trade FRN PPI MoM ITA PPI YoY ITA Industrial Production YoY GRM Industrial Production MoM GRM Wholesale Price Index MoM GRM

Frcst -9.6B -5.3B -3.37% 2.24% 0.16%

Prev -74.87B -5.2B -0.10% -1.80% 2.60% -0.60% 0.40%

America

Act

Part Time Employment Chg CAD Employment Change CAD Full Time Employment Chg CAD Unemployment Rate CAD Balance of Trade CAD Balance of Trade Unemployment Rate Nonfarm Payrolls - Private Government Payrolls Manufacturing Payrolls Average Hourly Earnings Average Weekly Hours Non Farm Payrolls

Code: NZD JPN AUD IDR

N. Zealand Japan Australia Indonesia

CNY FRN GBP INR

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China France England India

GRM CAD EUR ITA

German Canada Eropa Italia

SPN PHP KRW SWD

Spanyol Philippine Sth. Korea Swedia

Act : Actual

Frcst 14.1K 5.8K 7.00% -0.5B -38.2B 6.50% 168.4K 16.3K 24.5K 0.10% 34.42 137K

Prev -21.1K 29.4K 50.5K 7.00% -1.66B -38.7B 6.60% 142K -29K 21K 0.20% 34.4 113K

Frcst : Forecast Prev : Previous

4


Corporate Action

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5


Government & Corporate Bond Trading Analysis

Source: DJPU & www.ibpa.co.id

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6


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WEEKLY REVIEW TRUST 3-7 Maret 2014

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