Mendorong Daya Saing Indonesia,
1 1 0 Menyongsong ASEAN 2 s Economic Community 2015 a n m i p S t a l k i d By: Hendri Saparini, Ph.D s Managing g g Director Pu ECONIT Advisory Group in Economic ©
[email protected]
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n GLOBALISASI, REGIONALISASI GLOBALISASI m i DAN POSISI PENTING ASIA p S atTIMUR l k i
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Asia Pra-Krisis: The Flying Geese Before the crisis, “the flying geese” phenomenon was soaring throughout Asia and influencing the Pacific Rim economies.
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The formation resembled flying y g geese, g , headed by y Japan, p , while the rest of the group g p followed. Countries toward the front tend to transfer “older” industries to countries at the back. Note: “Flying Geese” is a concept developed by Kaname Akamasu that best describes the economic structure of Asia before the crisis.
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Krisis Asia Mengakhiri Flying Geese
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Source: BBC
Asian Economic Crisis in 1997-1998: The End of “Flying Geese”, The end of the good old days of the Asian miracle
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Asia Paska-Krisis: The Regional Squadrons After the crisis, squadrons of the former flying geese, who increasingly drive regional integration.
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SAARC Squadron
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ASEAN Squadron
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China Squadron Korea Squadron Japan S Squadron d
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China dan India: Penentu Asia Timur India
China
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Heavy reliance on low prices Weak financial system Inefficient capital system Slow population growth
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Red tape, corruption, tough labor laws and bureaucracy all d deter iinvestment Woeful infrastructure Lackluster primary education system Exclusive growth environment to the rich The privatization of key industries has stopped
We eaknesses
We eaknesse es
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Streng gths
Streng gths
Manufacturing giant with the lowest prices Hybrid communist-capitalist model that enables development Solid primary schools Infrastructure that lures foreign investment Good distribution of wealth with higher per-capita income
Strong technology and service industry Relatively efficient capital market Strong private sector and legal framework Younger Y workforce kf Growing population Great university system Strong entrepreneurial culture g p prices Attracts higher
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Arti Penting ASEAN Di Asia Timur
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ASEAN Penentu Masa Depan Asia Timur
ASEAN
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Neutral Position
ASEAN iis nott considered id d a “threat” to China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand
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2 s a High Bargaining Power
Attractive Single Regional Market Huge market High consumption Less competitive
Competitive Regional Production Base Smooth flow of goods, services, and people under FTA Abundance of natural resources Low labor cost 8
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n 2015: ASEAN COMMUNITY m i BersatupPasti S Menguntungkan g at g Semua? l k i
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Menuju ASEAN Community 2015
ASEAN COMMUNITY 2015
ASEAN Security Community (ASC)
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ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)
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1 1 0 ASEAN SocioCultural Community (ASCC)
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The Peaceful, Prosperous, and People-Centric ASEAN
Production/Supply
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Regional Production Base
Single Regional Market
Consumption/Demand
Dual Track Strategy
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Apa Arti ASEAN Integration?
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Tariffs will be eliminated and non-tariff b i barriers will ill b be gradually d ll phased h d outt Rules and regulations will be simplified and harmonized ASEAN investors will be permitted to invest in sectors t formerly f l closed l d tto fforeigners i and d th the services sector will also be opened up
All barriers to the free flow of goods, services, capital, and skilled labor are removed
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a l k Applicable international standards and
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The region will become a more level playing field
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practices are followed, and policies on intellectual property rights and competition are put in place Regional infrastructure will be more developed with the expansion of transportation, telecommunications and energy linkages
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Tren Raksasa Korporasi Dunia dan ASEAN Integration Global trends in manufacturing indicate a shift towards adopting flexible production techniques and integrated production chains
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n It is no longer cost effective for all manufacturing m activities to be done in ini p country house or in a single S t a MNCs are integrating their manufacturing activities across several locations l k i d large consumer markets but also regional sites MNCs are not only seeking s where they Pucan establish efficient production networks © Regional Production Base
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Janji Cost Savings Atas ASEAN Integration
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Diperlukan Balanced Approach
Benefits to MNCs Targeting more sales volume in the ASEAN market Components procurement on an ASEAN-wide basis More product specialization to achieve economies of scale Greater emphasis on profitability using ASEANASEAN wide operations
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Benefits to Local Companies More export opportunities to ASEAN market ASEAN-wide expansion opportunity for corporate growth strategy T h l and d fi financial i l Technology support opportunities from MNCs ASEAN-wide pool of talent
A Balanced Approach 14
Komoditas Ekspor ASEAN Ke China: Penyangga Kebutuhan China (2008)
Marble,travertine, ecaussines etc
76.6
Niobium, tantalum, vanadium ores & concentrates
76.7
Zinc ores & concentrates
76.9
m i p S t
Ores & concentrates, nes
77.3
compounded rubber, unvulcanised, in primary forms Iron oxides & hydroxides
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Zirconium & articles thereof, including waste & scrap Zirconium & articles thereof, including waste & scrap
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82.9 84.1 86
Chromium ores & concentrates
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89.9
Alumunium ores & concentrates
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91.8 94 8 94.8
Iron ores & concentrates; including roasted iron pyrites Iron ores & concentrates; including roasted iron pyrites Slag. Dross other than granulated slag
97
Uranium or thorium ores & concentrates
99.9 75
80
85
90
95
100
Percent
Source: ASEAN Economic Commonity Chartbook 2009
Ekspor Utama ASEAN ke India: Ketergantungan India Atas Bahan Baku ASEAN (2008)
Country Brunei Darussalam
Crude petroleum oils
Cambodia
Palm oil & its fraction
Dried vegetables, shelled
Indonesia Malaysia
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Singapore
Philippines Thailand
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m i Palm oil &S itsp fraction t Crude petroleum oils a l k diPetroleum oils, not crude
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Viet Nam
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Commodity
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Share of total export (%) p ( ) 99.80% 88.80% 61.70% 57.40% 39 70% 39.70% 22.20%
Coal; briquettes, ovoid & similar solid f l manufactured fuels f d from f coall
21.68%
Parts & access of motor vehicles
18.90%
Petroleum oils, not crude
6.40%
Source: ASEAN Secretariat Office
ASEAN trade with China:
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Defisit Berlanjut
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Billion USD
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Import
Export
0 ‐20
‐0.9 ‐1.7 ‐4.3 2.7 ‐4 2.9 ‐3 3.7 7 ‐1.5 ‐6.4 4.0 0 ‐2.9 ‐4 3 ‐2.0 ‐2.7 6 4 ‐8.9 ‐9.9 ‐15.2 Balance of trade ‐21.4
‐40 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ASEAN - India Trade:
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Surplus dengan Value Added?
35
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30
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20 15 10
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Balance of trade
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Export Import
5 0 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08
B Billion USD
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a INDONESIA : PELUANG &TANTANGAN l k i Strategi & Daya Saing sd Menentukan ©
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Perbandingan PDB ANGGOTA ASEAN (2008)
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China India
m i p S t
1,209.7
Indonesia
511.8
Thailand
273.2
Malaysia
222.2
Singapore
181.9
Philippines
168.6
Viet Nam
89.8
Myanmar
27.2
Brunei Darussalam
14.6
Cambodia
11.2
Lao PDR
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500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Billions of USD
3000
3500
4000
4500
Struktur PDB Indonesia:
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Konsumsi Swasta Mendominasi PDB
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8.0 19.1
23.1
80 39.8
P Percent
19.1
60
13 5 13.5
10.7
20.8 20
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12.9 40
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44.4 30.9
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39.7
11.6
54.7
2.8
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28.8
27.8
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41.1 15.2 9.7 6.2
8.4 11.9
54.8
71.1
67.3
60.9
45.2
20.1 0
-1.8
-5.3 -16.5
-20 Brunai
China
g p Singapore
Private consumption
Malaysia y
India
Government consumption
Thailand
Indonesia
Vietnam
Gross domestic capital formation
Philipina p
Net Export
Terjadi Percepatan Deindustrialisasi:
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Gap Indeks PDB dan Manufaktur Semakin Lebar Index, 2004=100
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150
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140 130 120
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PDB
Industri Pengolahan
100 90 80 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Pertumbuhan FDI:
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FDI Indonesia Lambat, Bukti Daya Saing Rendah
120
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100
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China
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ASEAN
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
19
19
19
(20)
86
India
84
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82
Indonesia
80
20
19
Billionn USD
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Mengapa g p Daya y Saing g Indonesia Rendah? 1
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Indonesia tidak memiliki industrial policy and strategy yang komprehensif sehingga mengakibatkan: komprehensif, • Visi industri dan perdagangan tidak jelas. Misal:
•
m i p S – Tren menunjukkan peningkatan share ekspor bahan mentah dan t peningkatan impor pangan. Apakah ini yang menjadi visi a l pembangunan industri? k i ddengan ketergantungan pangan impor. – Ketahanan pangan diikuti s Inikah tujuan pembangunan industri pertanian? u P © dan industri tidak memiliki referensi Kebijakan perdagangan dan arah serta keberpihakan yang jelas pada kepentingan nasional Misal: nasional.
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UU Penanaman Modal No 25 Tahun 2007, Peraturan Presiden No. 76 Tahun 2007, Peraturan Presiden No. 77 Tahun 2007 yang diubah dengan Peraturan Presiden No. 111 Tahun 2007 kepemilikan asing di bank dinaikkan dari 95% menjadi 99%. 99% Kebijakan energi (UU Migas, UU Minerba, dll), perdagangan
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Kebijakan pembangunan infrastruktur tidak memiliki perencanaan yang terintegrasi dengan rencana pembangunan sektoral. Misal:
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o Pembukaan dan dorongan g investasi sektor tambang g tidak diikuti dengan g penyediaan transportasi yang cukup. o Pembangunan industri pengolahan tidak diikuti pembangunan industri penyedia listrik, air bersih, pelabuhan, dll.
a l ktidak direncanakan dengan Kebijakan sumber daya manusia i d sektor industri, pendidikan link and match yang ketat antara s u dan ketenaga kerjaan. Contoh: P Malaysia lebih siap menangkap relokasi investasi Jepang berbasis SDM ©menarik investasi sektor elektronik untuk basis berketrampilan untuk produksi semi konduktor. Saat ini strategi Indonesia menyiapkan SMK. Apakah sesuai dengan rencana pengembangan industrinya? Sementara bbrp fakultas di perguruan tinggi seperti Geologi dan Pertanian, kekurangan mahasiswa. Padahal pertanian dan tambang adalah salah satu sektor potensial bagi Indonesia.
#3
1 1 Kebijakan keuangan, moneter dan fiskal, berpotensi kontraproduktif 0 2 terhadap pembangunan daya saing investasi langsung dan industri. s a Contoh: n iliki arah,h – Kebijakan K bij k d devisa i b bebas, b nilai il i ttukar, k lib liberalisasi li i kkeuangan tidak tid k memiliki m menyulitkan pembangunan sektor riil, i p strategi, dll – Kerjasama ekonomi internasional tidak memilikiS rencana t kontraproduktif – Kebijakan fiskal tentang subsidi, pajak, dll sering a l k i internasional berpotensi d Kebijakan dan strategi perdagangan s memberi dampak negatif padauekonomi nasional. – Sangat S t agresifif d dalam l melakukan l k kP lib liberalisasi li i perdagangan d b baik ik regional i l maupun © bebas sampai EPA bilateral. Mulai perdagangan –
Berpotensi menimbulkan berbagai masalah di berbagai sektor. Misal: UU No. 18 Tahun 2009 Tentang Peternakan
Kebijakan ekonomi selain tidak fokus pada peningkatan daya saing juga tidak mampu menyelesaikan masalah nasional seperti kemiskinan pengangguran kemiskinan, pengangguran, kesenjangan kesenjangan.
Top 10 Ekspor Indonesia ke India
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86% Natural Resources (2008)
Coconut (copra), 2%
m i p S t Chemical wood a l pulp, 1% k i Natural rubber, 1% Petroleum coke, 1%
Binders for foundry , molds or cores, 2% Copper ores and concentrates, 4% Others, 14%
Coal, 17%
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Palm oil & its Palm oil & its fraction, 58%
Top 10 Impor Indonesia dari India Didominated Barang Manufaktur (2008)
Semi‐finished products of iron 4% Cotton, not carded or combed 5% Television camera, transmissn app 8%
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Soya‐bean oil 9% Cyclic hydrocarbons 10%
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Ground‐nuts, not roasted 3% Trucks, motor Trucks, motor vehicles for the transport of goods 3%
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Petroleum oils, not crude 13%
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Others 45%
Top 10 Ekspor Indonesia ke China
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70% didominasi did i i SDA
No
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Value ((MillionUS$))
Product
m i p S t
Percent
1
Coal; briquettes, ovoids & similar solid fuels manufactured from coal
4070.7
26%
2
Palm oil & its fraction
1866.5
12%
3
Natural rubber,balata,gutta‐percha etc
1305.8
8%
4
Crude petroleum oils
705.6
4%
5
Chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate, other than dissolving grades
644.9
4%
6
Petroleum coke, petroleum bitumen & other residues of petroleum oils
486.7
3%
7
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Aluminum ores and concentrates
466.4
3%
8
Coconut (copra),palm kernel/babassu oil & their fractions
426.9
3%
9
Cyclic hydrocarbons
395.6
3%
10
Nickel ores and concentrates
348.4
2%
Total 10 Products
10,717.6
68%
Total Export Total Export
15 692 6 15,692.6
100%
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Top Impor Indonesia dari China
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Dominasi Produk Olahan
No
m i p S t
Product
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Value (Million US$)
Percent
1
Automatic data processing machines;optical reader, etc
1617.8
8%
2
Television camera, transmissn app for radio‐telephony
1414.4
7%
3
Petroleum oils, not crude
652.5
3%
4
Part suitable for use solely/princ with televisions, recpt app
552.9
3%
5
Electric app for line telephony,incl curr line system
546.5
3%
6
Printing machinery; machines for uses ancillary to printing
292.6
1%
7
Woven cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight less than 200 g/m2
279.7
1%
8
Cruise ship, cargo ship, barges
267.2
1%
9
Tubes, pipes and hollow profiles, seamless, or iron or steel
261.7
1%
10
Onions, garlic and leeks, fresh or chilled
248.2
1%
Total 10 Products
6133.4
30%
Total Import
20,424
100%
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Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-China Surplus pada Migas, Defisit pada Non Migas Miliar US$ 6 4 2.4
2 0.4 0.5
1.4
17 1.7
0.8
1.7
0 0.1 ‐2
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Migas
2.1
Neraca Perdagangan
‐3.6
0.9
‐2.5 ‐4.7
‐4 ‐4.6
Non Migas
‐6
‐5.6 ‐7 7.2 2
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2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Peran China dan India di Indonesia Bukan Lewat FDI?
Other Asia Countries 3.3%
Europe 7.3%
Japan 9.2% ASEAN 12.5%
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China 0.9%
USA 1.0%
Joint Countries 21.8%
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Australia 0 3% 0.3%
India 0.1%
Mauritius 43.6%
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ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Indonesia Diposisikan atau Memposisikan Diri
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2 s Merencanakan daya saing dan industrialisasi dengan a n adalah menganggap tren dan positioning Indonesia saat ini m kondisi yang bersifat given? Artinya: i p arah • Membiarkan MNC sebagai faktor penentu S t Indonesia. pembangunan ekonomi dan industri a l mendapatkan manfaat • Mencukupkan diri dengan sekadar k itambah, dll) d minimal (lapangan kerja, nilai s u P ATAU ©
Merencanakan daya saing dalam kerangka strategi industri (grand design) yang dirancang 1) sesuai amanah konstitusi, konstitusi 2) memanfaatkan semua potensi (lahan, tenaga kerja, SDA) dan 3) untuk menyelesaikan permasalahan nasional (pengangguran, kemiskinan ketergantungan, kemiskinan, ketergantungan kesenjangan, kesenjangan dll) serta untuk mengejar ketertinggalan Indonesia.
