DAILY MARKET CHARTS Daily Edition, May 16, 2016
PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Menara Imperium, 21st Floor Jl. HR Rasuna Said Kav.1 Jakarta 12980 – Indonesia tel: +62-21 2854 8148 | fax: +62-21 8370 1610 | email:
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Awal Technical Rebound Executive Summary
Sinyal Sell masih mendominasi sehingga tekanan jual masih sangat mungkin terjadi
Negative Return masih mendominasi saham LQ45. Suasana semakin negatif karena rata – rata saham LQ45 berada di bawah harga terendah dalam 5 hari (seminggu) serta harga terendah dalam sebulan
Weekly Stochastic Oscillator terindikasi memberikan sinyal Alert Buy di dekat area Oversold. Market Chartist melihat hal tersebut sebagai indikasikan bahwa masih ada peluang Technical Rebound
Market Chartist perkirakan IHSG membentuk Bottoming di area 4,730 – 4,760 untuk kemudian naik mendekati 4,850 di minggu ini
Dominasi sinyal Sell dan Downtrend serta hampir seluruh counter turun pada hari Jum’at, Commodities Related perlu diwaspadai hari ini
Penurunan counter yang berhubungan dengan bangunan konstruksi berpotensi terbatas sedangkan Infra lain cenderung Peak
Consumer Related kembali menjadi defensive stock dan layak menjadi pilihan namun tidak dalam waktu dekat karena terdominasi Overbought
Bank dan Residential kemungkinan akan cenderung Flat
Top Buy Signals : BBCA, INDF, UNVR, BBRI, LPKR dan SIMP
Top Sell Signals : ICBP, LSIP, ASRI, PGAS, ITMG, INAF dan MNC
Today’s Recommendation :
ICBP (Rp15,600) : Taking Profit
ADHI (Rp2,430) : Cut Loss
AKRA (Rp6,125) : Repeat Buy – TP @ 7,200
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Market Matters Multi-Assets Movements
Bursa U.S ditutup turun dengan rentang -1.05% s.d -0.41% sedangkan bursa Eropa ditutup naik dengan rentang 0.44% s.d 0.92%
Perlemahan Rupiah (Rp13,315) berpotensi berlanjut mendekati Rp13,400. Ada potensi Rupiah terus melemah menuju Rp13,600 ketika terjadi Breakout (USDIDR) Resistance di Rp13,400 tersebut
USD Index (94.6) mendekati Resistance penting di 95. Market Chartist perkirakan USD Index sangat mungkin terus menguat di atas 95, mendekati 96
Brent (USD47.8) terus naik dalam Upswing dengan target menuju USD50 sedangkan WTI (46.3) berpeluang melanjutkan Upswing menuju USD48
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Perhatikan Middle dan Small Cap MC’s Technical Setups Overview Of LQ45 Stocks in Daily Timeframe
Market Cap of LQ45 Stocks
Number of LQ45 Stocks
Overbought Related
Overbought Related
Oversold Related
Oversold Related
Sell Related
Sell Related
Buy Related
Buy Related
Downtrend Related
Downtrend Related
Uptrend Related
Uptrend Related 0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
0.0%
10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%
Summary
Sinyal Sell masih mendominasi sehingga tekanan jual masih sangat mungkin terjadi
Perlu diperhatikan bahwa terjadinya dominasi Uptrend secara Market Cap dan dominasi Oversold berdasarkan jumlah saham LQ45 dapat mengindikasikan potensi kenaikan pada IHSG serta menyarankan untuk memperhatikan Middle dan Small Cap
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Kondisi Masih Negatif MC’s Price Data Overview Of LQ45 Stocks in Daily Timeframe
Gain/Loss of LQ45
LQ45 Position to High/Low 60.0%
20D Loss 50.0%
20D Gain
40.0% 5D Loss
30.0%
5D Gain 20.0% 10.0%
1D Loss 1D Gain
0.0% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Above Weekly High
Below Weekly Low
Above Monthly Below Monthly High Low
Summary
Negative Return masih mendominasi saham LQ45
Suasana semakin negatif karena rata – rata saham LQ45 berada di bawah harga terendah dalam 5 hari (seminggu) serta harga terendah dalam sebulan
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Masih Berpotensi Technical Rebound JCI with Stochastic Oscillator In Weekly Timeframe
Weekly Stochastic Oscillator terindikasi memberikan sinyal Alert Buy di dekat area Oversold
Market Chartist melihat hal tersebut sebagai indikasikan bahwa masih ada peluang Technical Rebound
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Bottoming Mengawali Technical Rebound JCI with Classic Technical Analysis Method
Market Chartist perkirakan IHSG membentuk Bottoming di area 4,730 – 4,760 untuk kemudian naik mendekati 4,850 di minggu ini
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Pantau Dengan Waspada Commodities Related of LQ45 – Multiple Technical Analysis Data Overbought Related
Volume Above Both
Oversold Related
Volume Above Monthly Avg Volume Above Previous
Sell Related
5D Loss Buy Related
5D Gain
Downtrend Related
1D Loss
Uptrend Related
1D Gain
0.0%
Sub-Sector Coal Coal Coal CPO CPO CPO Mineral Mineral Oil&Gas
LQ45 ADRO PTBA UNTR AALI LSIP SSMS ANTM INCO PGAS
20.0%
40.0%
Trend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
Stoch. Osc. SO Value Sell Now 37 Sell Now 30 Sell Now 13 Sell Now 38 Sell Now 59 Still Sell 12 Sell Now 10 Sell Now 29 Sell Now 31
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
Dominasi sinyal Sell dan Downtrend serta hampir seluruh counter turun pada hari Jum’at, Commodities Related perlu diwaspadai hari ini
Namun melihat lebih detail, Market Chartist perkirakan terjadi Microscopic Oversold pada subsector Coal dan CPO sehingga ada peluang untuk turun terbatas membentuk Bottom terutama PTBA dan LSIP
Mineral lebih memiliki harapan karena memasuki Oversold area. Market Chartist menyukai INCO
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Layak Menjadi Pilihan Consumer Related of LQ45 – Multiple Technical Analysis Data Overbought Related
Volume Above Both
Oversold Related
Volume Above Monthly Avg Volume Above Previous
Sell Related 5D Loss
Buy Related
5D Gain
Downtrend Related
1D Loss
Uptrend Related
1D Gain
0.0%
Sub-Sector Auto Cigarettes Cigarettes FCMG FCMG FCMG FCMG Healthcare Media Media Media Poultry Retail Retail Textile
10.0%
LQ45 ASII GGRM HMSP ICBP INDF KLBF UNVR SILO BMTR MNCN SCMA CPIN LPPF MPPA SRIL
20.0%
30.0%
Trend Downtrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend New Uptrend Downtrend New Uptrend New Uptrend New Uptrend Uptrend New Uptrend Downtrend Uptrend Downtrend Downtrend
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
0.0%
70.0%
Stoch. Osc. SO Value Still Sell 23 Sell Now 72 Warning Sell 83 Warning Sell 100 Buy Now 59 Still Buy 37 Buy Now 61 Still Buy 83 Warning Sell 75 Warning Sell 77 Buy Now 62 Sell Now 6 Warning Sell 73 Still Buy 86 Sell Now 10
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Consumer Related kembali menjadi defensive stock dan layak menjadi pilihan namun tidak dalam waktu dekat karena terdominasi Overbought
Perlu diwaspadai penurunan pada Cigarettes, Media dan Retail
Namun paska penurunan drastis, ASII dan CPIN dapat dipantau dalam jangka pendek
FMCG kemungkinan naik namun waspadai ICBP
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Selling Climax Pada Cement, AKRA Bottoming Infrastructure Related of LQ45 – Multiple Technical Analysis Data Overbought Related
Volume Above Both
Oversold Related
Volume Above Monthly Avg Volume Above Previous
Sell Related
5D Loss Buy Related
5D Gain
Downtrend Related
1D Loss
Uptrend Related
1D Gain
0.0%
Sub-Sector Cement Cement Construction Construction Construction Construction Oil&Gas Tower Telecom Toll
10.0%
LQ45 INTP SMGR ADHI PTPP WIKA WSKT AKRA TBIG TLKM JSMR
20.0%
30.0%
Trend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend Uptrend Downtrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Stoch. Osc. SO Value Buy Now 5 Still Sell 12 Still Sell 10 Buy Now 48 Still Sell 20 Still Buy 65 Still Sell 57 Buy Now 89 Sell Now 71 Still Buy 88
0.0%
10.0% 20.0%
30.0% 40.0% 50.0%
60.0% 70.0%
Penurunan counter yang berhubungan dengan bangunan konstruksi berpotensi terbatas sedangkan Infra lain cenderung Peak
Market Chartist perkirakan sangat mungkin terjadi Selling Climax pada Cement dan ADHI sehingga penurunan berpotensi telah terbatas
Construction lain seperti PTPP dan WIKA sangat mungkin naik namun WIKA berpeluang turun
Market Chartist perkirakan AKRA berpeluang Bottoming
TBIG kemungkinan besar akan Flat membentuk Puncak sedangkan TLKM dan JSMR akan turun
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Cenderung Bergerak Flat Interest Related of LQ45 – Multiple Technical Analysis Data Overbought Related
Volume Above Both
Oversold Related
Volume Above Monthly Avg Volume Above Previous
Sell Related 5D Loss
Buy Related
5D Gain
Downtrend Related
1D Loss
Uptrend Related
1D Gain 0.0%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%
Sub-Sector Banking Banking Banking Banking Banking Residential Residential Residential Residential Residential Residential
LQ45 BBCA BBNI BBRI BBTN BMRI ASRI BSDE LPKR MYRX PWON SMRA
Trend New Uptrend Downtrend Downtrend Uptrend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend
Stoch. Osc. SO Value Buy Now 48 Still Sell 29 Buy Now 16 Still Sell 38 Sell Now 36 Sell Now 35 Alert Buy 26 Buy Now 24 Alert Buy 0 Sell Now 56 Buy Now 44
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
Bank dan Residential kemungkinan akan cenderung Flat
Ada potensi naik pada BBCA dan BBRI begitupun dengan BSDE, LPKR dan SMRA
BSDE dan SMRA sangat mungkin Bottoming mengakhiri ST Downtrend
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Top Buy and Sell Signals Stochastic Oscillator and Bollinger Band
Top Buy Signals in Market Chartist Stock Universe LQ45 BBCA INDF UNVR BBRI LPKR SIMP
Trend New Uptrend New Uptrend New Uptrend Downtrend Downtrend New Uptrend
Stoch. Osc. SO Value Last Price Buy Now 48 13,150 Buy Now 59 7,125 Buy Now 61 44,400 Buy Now 16 9,875 Buy Now 24 935 Alert Buy 74 515
1D %Ch 5D %Ch 20D %Ch 20D %Ch 0.38 0.38 (1.50) 1.06 (1.04) (0.70) 9.62 0.23 (1.66) 2.42 6.79 (0.25) (4.59) (6.84) (16.84) 1.08 (7.88) (10.10) (6.03) 0.98 6.40 1.98 41.87
Relative Perform. Outperform Outperform Outperform Underperform Underperform Outperform
Supp.2 12,920 6,960 43,300 9,660 890 500
Supp.1 13,030 7,040 43,850 9,770 910 510
Resist.1 13,230 7,190 44,750 9,970 950 520
Resist.2 13,320 7,260 45,100 10,060 970 530
Supp.2 15,430 1,460 350 2,220 8,090 790 2,190
Supp.1 15,520 1,500 360 2,270 8,230 840 2,240
Resist.1 15,640 1,560 380 2,380 8,480 930 2,360
Resist.2 15,680 1,590 390 2,440 8,590 970 2,430
*SO : Stochastic Oscillator
Top Sell Signals in Market Chartist Stock Universe LQ45 ICBP LSIP ASRI PGAS ITMG INAF MNCN
Trend Uptrend Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend
Stoch. Osc. SO Value Last Price Warning Sell 100 15,600 Sell Now 59 1,535 Sell Now 35 366 Sell Now 31 2,310 Warning Sell 88 8,375 Warning Sell 88 890 Warning Sell 77 2,300
1D %Ch 5D %Ch 20D %Ch 20D %Ch 0.32 1.63 4.70 2.63 (1.29) (10.76) 1.32 (3.68) (3.68) (5.18) 8.93 (2.94) (6.10) (15.54) (7.41) 0.90 6.69 17.54 73.40 4.09 11.95 18.67 184.35 2.68 6.98 8.24 66.06
Relative Perform. Outperform Underperform Underperform Underperform Outperform Outperform Outperform
*SO : Stochastic Oscillator
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MC Trading Recommendation Recommendation : Buy / Repeat Buy / Upgrade TP / Downgrade TP / Taking Profit / Taking Profit Below Estimate / Cut Loss
Buy List
Today’s Recommendation
Stock
Latest Call Date
1st Call Date
AKRA ASII INDF KLBF LSIP
16-May-16 28-Apr-16 28-Apr-16 13-May-16 4-May-16
27-Apr-16 28-Apr-16 18-Feb-16 7-Apr-16 4-May-16
1st Call Latest % Latest Est. % Upside Open Price Close Change Target Price Potential 6,600 6,850 6,600 1,425 1,495
6,125 6,325 7,125 1,320 1,535
-7.2% -7.7% 8.0% -7.4% 2.7%
7,200 7,100 7,300 1,500 1,600
17.6% 12.3% 2.5% 13.6% 4.2%
ICBP (Rp15,600)
: Taking Profit
ADHI (Rp2,430)
: Cut Loss
AKRA (Rp6,125)
: Repeat Buy – TP @ 7,200
Buy List Condition
ASII dan LSIP berpotensi turun terbatas
INDF dan KLBF berpeluang naik
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ICBP (Rp15,600) Taking Profit
Market Chartist perkirakan kenaikan ICBP masih mungkin menjadi Technical Rebound dan berpotensi segera mengakhiri Technical Rebound di sekitar 15,600an
Namun secara jangka menengah, ICBP memiliki peluang untuk berada di awal Upswing menuju 16,600 kembali. Perlu diperhatikan saat ICBP Breakout 15,800
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ADHI (Rp2,430) Cut Loss
ADHI telah dua kali Breakdown Key Support yaitu di 2,555 dan 2,475 sehingga sangat mungkin ADHI berada dalam ST/MT Downtrend
Ada potensi naik sebagai Technical Rebound yang dapat menjadi timing untuk Cut Loss
15
AKRA (Rp6,125) Repeat Buy – TP @ 7,200
Market Chartist perkirakan AKRA akan segera mengakhir MT Downtrend sejak Feb’16 di area 5,800 – 6,100
Ada potensi AKRA bergerak naik (ST Uptrend) sebagai Technical Rebound namun terbuka peluang untuk membentuk Upswing dengan potensi melebihi 8,450
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Historical List Stock
Call Action
ADHI Cut Loss AKRA Repeat Buy ICBP Taking Profit KLBF Repeat Buy TLKM Taking Profit ADRO Cut Loss AKRA Downgrade TP ADHI Downgrade TP ASRI Cut Loss KLBF Repeat Buy CPIN TP Below Est. TP LSIP Buy SRIL Cut Loss TLKM Buy ADRO Repeat Buy CPIN Repeat Buy ADHI Downgrade TP ASII Buy ICBP Buy INDF Downgrade TP AKRA Buy CPIN Repeat Buy SRIL Repeat Buy TLKM Taking Profit ASRI Buy INDF Repeat Buy KLBF Repeat Buy ASRI Taking Profit BSDE Taking Profit TLKM Buy BSDE Upgrade TP ADRO Repeat Buy ASII Taking Profit
Call Date
Open Price in Call Date
Prev. Close
1st Call Date
16-May-16 16-May-16 16-May-16 13-May-16 12-May-16 11-May-16 11-May-16 10-May-16 10-May-16 9-May-16 4-May-16 4-May-16 2-May-16 2-May-16 29-Apr-16 29-Apr-16 28-Apr-16 28-Apr-16 28-Apr-16 28-Apr-16 27-Apr-16 27-Apr-16 26-Apr-16 26-Apr-16 25-Apr-16 22-Apr-16 22-Apr-16 21-Apr-16 21-Apr-16 21-Apr-16 20-Apr-16 19-Apr-16 18-Apr-16
New New New 1,315 3,710 670 6,475 2,570 368 1,305 3,700 1,495 290 3,410 730 3,740 2,745 6,850 14,925 6,850 6,600 3,700 309 3,755 410 7,250 1,410 419 1,980 3,610 1,960 700 7,800
2,430 6,125 15,600 1,315 3,720 665 6,450 2,580 370 1,340 3,660 1,505 288 3,550 735 3,745 2,745 6,825 14,925 6,850 6,600 3,735 306 3,780 410 7,250 1,410 418 1,970 3,585 1,920 685 7,675
25-Feb-16 27-Apr-16 28-Apr-16 7-Apr-16 2-May-16 17-Mar-16 27-Apr-16 25-Feb-16 25-Apr-16 7-Apr-16 5-Apr-16 4-May-16 6-Apr-16 2-May-16 17-Mar-16 5-Apr-16 25-Feb-16 18-Feb-16 27-Apr-16 5-Apr-16 6-Apr-16 21-Apr-16 25-Apr-16 18-Feb-16 7-Apr-16 12-Apr-16 29-Mar-16 21-Apr-16 29-Mar-16 17-Mar-16 29-Mar-16
1st Call Latest Est. Open Price Target Price 2,600 6,600 14,925 1,425 3,410 745 6,600 2,600 410 1,425 3,575 1,495 304 3,410 745 3,575 2,600 6,600 New 3,575 304 3,610 New 6,600 1,425 390 1,825 New 1,825 745 7,150
2,700 7,200 15,600 1,500 3,750 800 7,200 2,900 440 1,500 3,800 1,600 320 3,750 800 3,800 2,950 7,700 7,200 3,800 320 3,850 440 7,700 1,500 420 2,000 3,850 1,900 800 7,600
Buy Repeat Buy
47 49
Upgrade TP Downgrade TP
13 19
Taking Profit TP Below Est. TP Cut Loss
28 67% 2 5% 12 29% 42 100%
Out of LQ45
1
*Open Price as Buy / Sell Price
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Thank You… Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CSA, CFTe Market Chartist
[email protected] +6221 285 48382 (Direct) Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Menara Imperium, 21st floor Rasuna Said Kav. 1 Jakarta 12980, Indonesia
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