SAMUEL MARKET CHARTS Daily Edition, February 18, 2016
PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Menara Imperium, 21st Floor Jl. HR Rasuna Said Kav.1 Jakarta 12980 – Indonesia tel: +62-21 2854 8148 | fax: +62-21 8370 1610 | email:
[email protected] www.samuel.co.id
(Another) Rally Starts Now Executive Summary
Saat ini, data teknikal mengindikasikan keseimbangan Supply – Demand sehingga masih akan berada dalam Technical Correction namun tetap dalam kondisi Uptrend
Market Chartist melihat volume yang signifikan meningkat sehingga memperkirakan IHSG akan segera Breakout dan melanjutkan Uptrend hari ini atau besok
Market Chartist perkirakan IHSG akan ditutup di 4,850 di akhir Feb’16
Market Chartist perkirakan Commodities Related akan cenderung mengalami penurunan kecuali UNTR dan SSMS
Consumer Related berpotensi naik khususnya Auto (ASII), FMCG (ICBP, INDF dan UNVR, kecuali KLBF), Poultry (CPIN) dan Cigarettes (HMSP, kecuali GGRM) sedangkan Media (SCMA dan MNCN) dan Retail (MPPA, kecuali LPPF) berpeluang melemah paska penguatan signifikan sebelumnya
Market Chartist memperkirakan Infrastructure Related seperti Oil&Gas (AKRA), Teleco (TLKM dan TBIG) serta Toll (JSMR) akan naik namun Cement dan Construction masih akan turun
Potensi kenaikan untuk Interest Related khususnya Residential masih ada namun memasuki tahap akhir sebelum Overbought dan mengalami Technical Correction. Bank masih memiliki peluang naik
Noticeable Buy Signals :
HMSP, AKRA, CPIN, ASII, UNVR dan BBNI
Rekomendasi hari ini :
ASII (Rp7,000) : Buy – TP @ 7,300
February 18, 2016
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Market Matters Multi-Assets Movements
Bursa U.S naik tinggi dengan rentang 1.6% s.d 2.2% diikuti oleh bursa Eropa sebesar 2.65% s.d 2.98%
USD Index (96.8) berpotensi mengakhiri penguatannya (Technical Rebound) dan Market Chartist perkirakan akan segera melanjutkan trend penurunan hingga kembali mendekati terendah di 95.5
Yuan (6.52) terindikasi bergerak melemah jangka pendek (sampai 6.54) namun masih memiliki potensi penguatan dalam jangka pendek – menengah hingga 6.48. Meski demikian, Market Chartist masih perkirakan Yuan akan cenderung melemah dalam jangka menengah hingga ke 6.8
Rupiah (Rp13,500) terlihat masih dalam perlemahan sementara (Technical Rebound pada USDIDR) dan Market Chartist perkirakan perlemahan sementara tersebut akan berakhir di Rp13,600 dimana setelahnya Rupiah berpotensi bergerak dalam trend turun hingga di bawah Rp13,000
Brent (34.9) memiliki potensi besar untuk bergerak Uptrend apabila berhasil Breakout Resistance di 36.1 (High 29 Jan’16) dan Market Chartist perkirakan hal tersebut akan terjadi dan membuat Brent paling memiliki potensi Bullish Reversal setidaknya untuk bergerak ST Uptrend hingga mendekati 42.5. WTI (31.1) masih cenderung Downtrend walaupun terindikasi sedang membentuk Bullish Reversal Pattern (kemungkinan Head and Shoulders)
February 18, 2016
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The Balance of Supply – Demand MC’s Technical Setups Overview Of LQ45 Stocks in Daily Timeframe
Market Cap of LQ45 Stocks
Number of LQ45 Stocks Oversold Overbought
Overbought Related Oversold Related
Undershoot Overshoot Still Sell Sell Now Warning Sell Still Buy Buy Now Alert Buy
Sell Related Buy Related
New Downtrend Downtrend Uptrend New Uptrend
Downtrend Related Uptrend Related 0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
0.0%
10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%
Summary
Market Chartist melihat kondisi data teknikal yang cenderung imbang untuk jangka pendek antara potensi kenaikan dan penurunan, dilihat dari Overbought – Oversold dan Buy – Sell Related Signals
Kondisi demikian cukup wajar ditengah “fase istirahat” dari sebuah trend (Uptrend) dimana ada indikasi Balance of Supply-Demand
Market Chartist mengacu kepada data Uptrend yang dominan baik secara Market Cap maupun jumlah saham LQ45 dan perkirakan IHSG masih akan Uptrend, menunggu akhir dari Technical Correction
February 18, 2016
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High Volume Indicates A Start of Rally JCI with Classic Technical Analysis Method
Market Chartist perkirakan IHSG akan segera mengakhiri Technical Correction (berpotensi berbentuk Pennant) dan melanjutkan Uptrend hingga menuju 5,000 (target dari Pennant ketika sudah confirmed)
Kenaikan volume yang signifikan mengindikasikan akan segera ada pergerakan (yang juga signifikan) yang Market Chartist perkirakan adalah sebuah Breakout dari Pennant tersebut
February 18, 2016
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Go For Consumer Related Sub-Sector and Risk-Related of LQ45 with MC’ Technical Setups Risk-Related Commodities Related Commodities Related Commodities Related Commodities Related Commodities Related Commodities Related Commodities Related Commodities Related Commodities Related Consumer Related Consumer Related Consumer Related Consumer Related Consumer Related Consumer Related Consumer Related Consumer Related Consumer Related Consumer Related Consumer Related Consumer Related Consumer Related Consumer Related Consumer Related Infrastructure Related Infrastructure Related Infrastructure Related Infrastructure Related Infrastructure Related Infrastructure Related Infrastructure Related Infrastructure Related Infrastructure Related Infrastructure Related Interest Related Interest Related Interest Related Interest Related Interest Related Interest Related Interest Related Interest Related #N/A Interest Related Interest Related
Sub-Sector Coal Coal Coal CPO CPO CPO Mineral Mineral Oil&Gas Auto Cigarettes Cigarettes FCMG FCMG FCMG FCMG Healthcare Media Media Media Poultry Retail Retail Textile Cement Cement Construction Construction Construction Construction Oil&Gas Tower Telecommunication Toll Banking Banking Banking Banking Banking Residential Residential Residential #N/A Residential Residential
LQ45 ADRO PTBA UNTR AALI LSIP SSMS ANTM INCO PGAS ASII GGRM HMSP ICBP INDF KLBF UNVR SILO BMTR MNCN SCMA CPIN LPPF MPPA SRIL INTP SMGR ADHI PTPP WIKA WSKT AKRA TBIG TLKM JSMR BBCA BBNI BBRI BBTN BMRI ASRI BSDE LPKR MYRX PWON SMRA
Trend Uptrend Downtrend Downtrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Downtrend Uptrend Downtrend Downtrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend New Downtrend Uptrend New Downtrend New Downtrend Uptrend New Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Downtrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend New Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend
SO Sign Warning Sell Still Sell Still Buy Sell Now Sell Now Still Buy Sell Now Sell Now Sell Now Buy Now Still Buy Buy Now Warning Sell Alert Buy Sell Now Buy Now Buy Now Buy Now Buy Now Buy Now Buy Now Still Buy Sell Now Warning Sell Sell Now Alert Buy Alert Buy Sell Now Sell Now Alert Buy Buy Now Still Buy Warning Sell Buy Now Warning Sell Buy Now Warning Sell Still Buy Sell Now Still Buy Warning Sell Warning Sell Sell Now Warning Sell Warning Sell
SO Value % Change 85 0.81 16 (1.13) 25 0.47 95 2.49 68 (1.32) 74 1.31 84 74 (0.69) 77 (0.20) 57 1.45 95 3.21 21 75 0.98 14 (0.38) 6 (1.92) 63 0.85 20 0.57 69 8.90 70 11.91 94 3.08 35 0.70 55 60 (2.40) 83 4.40 63 (0.50) 17 (1.17) 73 0.37 35 (1.64) 59 (0.73) 70 0.52 10 0.66 69 1.63 39 14 0.45 57 68 1.39 79 0.21 94 1.95 16 (0.51) 91 9.09 90 1.12 93 3.43 32 (1.84) 93 2.74 100 0.61
Market Chartist perkirakan Commodities Related akan cenderung mengalami penurunan kecuali UNTR dan SSMS
Consumer Related berpotensi naik khususnya Auto (ASII), FMCG (ICBP, INDF dan UNVR, kecuali KLBF), Poultry (CPIN) dan Cigarettes (HMSP, kecuali GGRM) sedangkan Media (SCMA dan MNCN) dan Retail (MPPA, kecuali LPPF) berpeluang melemah paska penguatan signifikan sebelumnya
Market Chartist memperkirakan Infrastructure Related seperti Oil&Gas (AKRA), Teleco (TLKM dan TBIG) serta Toll (JSMR) akan naik namun Cement dan Construction masih akan turun
Potensi kenaikan untuk Interest Related khususnya Residential masih ada namun memasuki tahap akhir sebelum Overbought dan mengalami Technical Correction. Bank masih memiliki peluang naik
Noticeable Buy Signals :
February 18, 2016
HMSP, AKRA, CPIN, ASII, UNVR dan BBNI
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MC Trading Recommendation Historical List LQ45
Call Action
Call Date
ASII CPIN TLKM BMRI SMRA UNTR BBRI BMRI SMRA ASII ASII BBRI UNTR WSKT ASII BBRI UNVR UNTR UNVR ADHI BBNI JSMR BBRI TBIG UNTR TBIG UNVR WSKT ADHI WSKT BBNI EXCL UNVR CPIN JSMR ADHI EXCL BBNI
Buy Buy Buy Repeat Buy Sell Sell Buy Buy Buy Sell Upgrade TP Sell Repeat Buy Sell Buy Downgrade TP Sell Repeat Buy Repeat Buy Sell Sell Sell Downgrade TP Upgrade TP Buy Buy Upgrade TP Downgrade TP Repeat Buy Repeat Buy Upgrade TP Out of LQ45 Downgrade TP Sell Repeat Buy Repeat Buy Repeat Buy Downgrade TP
18-Feb-16 17-Feb-16 17-Feb-16 16-Feb-16 15-Feb-16 15-Feb-16 11-Feb-16 11-Feb-16 11-Feb-16 10-Feb-16 9-Feb-16 5-Feb-16 5-Feb-16 5-Feb-16 4-Feb-16 4-Feb-16 4-Feb-16 3-Feb-16 3-Feb-16 2-Feb-16 2-Feb-16 2-Feb-16 1-Feb-16 1-Feb-16 1-Feb-16 29-Jan-16 28-Jan-16 28-Jan-16 27-Jan-16 27-Jan-16 26-Jan-16 26-Jan-16 26-Jan-16 25-Jan-16 25-Jan-16 22-Jan-16 22-Jan-16 21-Jan-16
Today Open at Call Date New 3,525 3,320 9,825 1,650 16,250 11,725 9,825 1,500 6,750 6,550 11,625 16,575 1,785 6,200 11,050 38,625 16,500 37,300 2,545 4,880 5,950 11,350 6,200 17,400 5,850 37,250 1,735 2,470 1,750 4,980 3,500 35,800 3,260 5,725 2,485 3,680 4,875
Prev. Close 7,000 3,600 3,335 9,700 1,660 15,925 11,950 9,700 1,660 7,000 7,000 11,950 15,925 1,940 7,000 11,950 41,350 15,925 41,350 2,705 5,475 5,525 11,950 6,250 15,925 6,250 41,350 1,940 2,705 1,940 5,475 #N/A 41,350 3,600 5,525 2,705 #N/A 5,475
% Ch New 2.1% 0.5% -1.3% Sell Sell 1.9% -1.3% 10.7% Sell 6.9% Sell -3.9% Sell 12.9% 8.1% Sell -3.5% 10.9% Sell Sell Sell 5.3% 0.8% -8.5% 6.8% 11.0% 11.8% 9.5% 10.9% 9.9% Out 15.5% Sell -3.5% 8.9% New 12.3%
Target Price 7,300 3,760 3,450 10,200 1,600 18,200 12,500 10,200 1,600 6,800 6,800 11,400 18,200 1,800 6,500 11,400 18,200 38,500 2,600 5,200 6,000 11,600 6,500 18,200 6,100 38,500 1,800 2,600 1,850 5,200 36,500 6,000 2,600 4,000 5,075
% Upside 4.3% 4.4% 3.4% 5.2% Sell Sell 4.6% 5.2% -3.6% Sell -2.9% Sell 14.3% Sell -7.1% -4.6% Sell 14.3% -6.9% Sell Sell Sell -2.9% 4.0% 14.3% -2.4% -6.9% -7.2% -3.9% -4.6% -5.0% Out -11.7% Sell 8.6% -3.9% New -7.3%
ASII (Rp7,000) : Buy – TP @ 7,300
Buy List Buy ASII BBCA BBRI BMRI CPIN TBIG TLKM
February 18, 2016
Latest Call Date 18-Feb-16 10-Feb-16 11-Feb-16 16-Feb-16 17-Feb-16 1-Feb-16 17-Feb-16
1st Call Date 18-Feb-16 19-Jan-16 11-Feb-16 11-Feb-16 17-Feb-16 29-Jan-16 17-Feb-16
Latest Target Price 7,300 13,600 12,500 10,200 3,760 6,500 3,450
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ASII (Rp7,000) Buy – TP @ 7,300
Market Chartist memperkirakan Technical Correction ASII selesai di ~6,700 dan saat ini ASII berpotensi naik hingga level 7,300 dan masih sangat mungkin untuk Uptrend hingga level 7,950 (target – target dari Uptrend Channel)
Market Chartist percaya ASII dapat Breakout Resistance di 7,150 (High 11 Feb’16)
February 18, 2016
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Thank You… Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CSA, CFTe Market Chartist
[email protected] +6221 285 48382 (Direct) Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Menara Imperium, 21st floor Rasuna Said Kav. 1 Jakarta 12980, Indonesia
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