SAMUEL MARKET CHARTS Daily Edition, January 11, 2016
PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Menara Imperium, 21st Floor Jl. HR Rasuna Said Kav.1 Jakarta 12980 – Indonesia tel: +62-21 2854 8148 | fax: +62-21 8370 1610 | email:
[email protected] www.samuel.co.id
Between ST Uptrend and MT Downtrend Executive Summary
Market Chartist melihat IHSG saat ini dalam persimpangan antara pergerakan ST Uptrend dan MT Downtrend dimana Market Chartist perkirakan IHSG akan cenderung bergerak MT Downtrend (turun) dalam 1 – 2 minggu ke depan menuju ~4,480 namun akan naik dalam 1 – 3 hari ke depan
MT Downtrend tersebut sebagai bagian dari Technical Correction, sesuai indikasi Weekly Stoch. Osc namun Market Chartist percaya IHSG masih akan mengalami “January Effect”
Secara umum, semua Risk-Related dan Sub-Sector perlu diwaspadai khusunya FMCG, Media dan Poultry (dari Consumer Related) serta Construction (dari Infrastructure Related)
Market Chartist melihat potensi kenaikan di Media dan Healthcare (SILO, BMTR dan MNCN) serta Residential (LPKR, WPON dan SMRA)
Saham dalam berita : KLBF, INAF, KAEF, ANTM, ASII, IMAS, TLKM, SOCI, BBTN, BBNI, BBRI, AALI, LSIP, SGRO, PTBA, ADRO, TINS
Rekomendasi hari ini :
LPKR
: Buy – TP @ 1,100
PWON
: Buy – TP @ 500
January 11, 2016
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Market Matters Multi-Assets Movements, News and Sentiments
Rupiah cenderung bergerak Flat mendekati Rp14,000
Bursa global cenderung tutup negatif secara WoW, penurunan pertama di minggu pertama awal 2016 dimana secara umum bursa – bursa tersebut membentuk Lower Low yang merupakan ciri khas Downtrend
CDS Indonesia cenderung meningkat sejak awal 2016 meski belum setinggi level di Des’15 namun ada kecenderungan ‘tingkat risiko’ Indonesia menuju ke level tersebut
January 11, 2016
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Balance of Oversold and Overbought MC’s Technical Setups Overview Of LQ45 Stocks in Daily Timeframe
Number of LQ45 Stocks
Market Cap of LQ45 Stocks Overbought Related
Oversold
Oversold Related
Overbought
Sell Related Undershoot
Buy Related
Overshoot Downtrend Related Uptrend Related
Still Sell
0.0%
Sell Now Warning Sell
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
Summary
Still Buy Buy Now
Hal menarik adalah kondisi Overbought yang mengimbangi Oversold ditengah potensi besar untuk mengalami Technical Correction (Sell Related + Uptrend Dominance)
Market Chartist melihat kondisi ini adalah persimpangan antara pergerakan ST dan MT dimana belum ada potensi arah yang jelas
Meski demikian, Market Chartist perkirakan IHSG masih berpotensi turun dalam bentuk Technical Correction
Alert Buy
New Downtrend Downtrend Uptrend New Uptrend 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%
January 11, 2016
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Following A Weekly Stochastic Oscillator JCI with Double Timeframes of Stochastic Oscillator
Meski memberikan sinyal Sell, Daily Stoch. Osc berpotensi segera memasuki Oversold area dan cenderung memberikan sinyal positif dalam jangka pendek namun Market Chartist melihat IHSG akan cenderung bergerak turun mengikuti sinyal Sell dari Weekly Stoch. Osc
January 11, 2016
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Move Technical Correction to ~4,480 JCI with Classic Technical Analysis Method
Dengan sedikit merubah High – Low Point dari Fibonacci Retracement, potensi Technical Correction normal berkisar di antara ~4,450 s.d ~4,520
Market Chartist perkirakan Technical Correction akan terjadi menuju ~4,480 dalam 1 – 2 minggu ke depan
January 11, 2016
6
Watch Out And Watch Media and Residential Sub-Sector and Risk-Related of LQ45 with MACS’ Technical Setups LQ45
Risk-Related
Sub-Sector
Trend
SO Sign
SO Value
ADRO
Commodities Related
Coal
Downtrend
Sell Now
11
% Change (1.40)
ITMG
Commodities Related
Coal
Downtrend
Sell Now
44
(1.29)
PTBA UNTR
Commodities Related Commodities Related
Coal Coal
Downtrend Uptrend
Sell Now Sell Now
20 38
(4.55) (2.84)
AALI
Commodities Related
CPO
Downtrend
Sell Now
59
(2.84)
LSIP
Commodities Related
CPO
Downtrend
Still Sell
12
(1.19)
INCO
Commodities Related
Mineral
Downtrend
Alert Buy
14
(2.27)
PGAS
Commodities Related
Oil and Gas
Downtrend
Sell Now
20
(5.19)
ASII
Consumer Related
Automotive
Downtrend
Sell Now
53
(0.41)
SSMS
Consumer Related
Automotive
Uptrend
Still Sell
22
(2.49)
GGRM
Consumer Related
Cigarettes
Uptrend
Warning Sell
88
0.64
ICBP
Consumer Related
FMCG
Uptrend
Warning Sell
98
1.44
INDF
Consumer Related
FMCG
Uptrend
Sell Now
89
(2.16)
KLBF UNVR
Consumer Related Consumer Related
FMCG FMCG
Uptrend New Uptrend
Warning Sell Sell Now
93 52
2.55 (3.34)
SILO
Consumer Related
Healthcare
Downtrend
Buy Now
22
(0.53)
BMTR
Consumer Related
Media
Uptrend
Alert Buy
18
(4.39)
MNCN
Consumer Related
Media
Downtrend
Buy Now
21
(3.13)
SCMA
Consumer Related
Media
Uptrend
Sell Now
86
(1.52)
CPIN
Consumer Related
Poultry
Uptrend
Warning Sell
90
(1.56)
LPPF
Consumer Related
Retail
Downtrend
Sell Now
21
(5.70)
MPPA
Consumer Related
Retail
Uptrend
Still Sell
37
(1.99)
SRIL
Consumer Related
Textile
Downtrend
Alert Buy
29
(4.04)
INTP
Infrastructure Related
Cement
New Downtrend
Sell Now
19
(5.94)
SMGR WTON
Infrastructure Related Infrastructure Related
Cement Concrete
Uptrend Uptrend
Sell Now Warning Sell
43 92
(4.15) 3.87
ADHI
Infrastructure Related
Construction
Uptrend
Warning Sell
87
3.61
PTPP
Infrastructure Related
Construction
Uptrend
Still Buy
90
1.94
WIKA
Infrastructure Related
Construction
Uptrend
Sell Now
92
0.18
WSKT
Infrastructure Related
Construction
Uptrend
Warning Sell
82
0.89
AKRA
Infrastructure Related
Oil and Gas
Uptrend
Buy Now
73
6.27
EXCL
Infrastructure Related
Telecommunication
Downtrend
Still Sell
23
(3.94)
TBIG
Infrastructure Related
Telecommunication
Downtrend
Warning Sell
28
(1.31)
TLKM
Infrastructure Related
Telecommunication
Uptrend
Still Sell
33
(3.23)
JSMR
Infrastructure Related
Toll
Uptrend
Sell Now
84
(0.43)
BBCA BBNI
Interest Related Interest Related
Bank Bank
Downtrend Uptrend
Alert Buy Sell Now
7 42
(1.52) (0.99)
BBRI
Interest Related
Bank
Uptrend
Buy Now
60
0.65
BBTN
Interest Related
Bank
Uptrend
Sell Now
79
(1.84)
BMRI
Interest Related
Bank
Uptrend
Still Sell
47
(0.80)
ASRI
Interest Related
Residential
Downtrend
Sell Now
22
(2.65)
BSDE
Interest Related
Residential
Uptrend
Sell Now
90
(0.27)
LPKR
Interest Related
Residential
Downtrend
Buy Now
45
1.47
PWON
Interest Related
Residential
Uptrend
Buy Now
36
(1.64)
SMRA
Interest Related
Residential
Uptrend
Still Buy
46
1.26
Secara umum, semua Risk-Related dan SubSector perlu diwaspadai khusunya FMCG, Media dan Poultry (dari Consumer Related) serta Construction (dari Infrastructure Related)
Market Chartist melihat potensi kenaikan di Media dan Healthcare (SILO, BMTR dan MNCN) serta Residential (LPKR, WPON dan SMRA)
January 11, 2016
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Today’s Movement Prediction MC’s Selection of LQ45 Stocks with MACS’ Technical Setups
Stocks
Today's Prediction
News / Sentiments
KLBF INAF
Rise to 1,410 Asing bisa kuasai perusahaan farmasi hingga 100%
KAEF ANTM ASII IMAS
Berminat garap tambang bekas INCO
Close 1,410
Short Term Stoch. Osc. Stoch. Osc. Boll. Band. Trend Signals Condition Condition Uptrend
Warning Sell Overbought Overshoot
Rise to 160
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
Rise to 916
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
Rise to 303
#N/A
Penjualan mobil FY15 turun 16% YoY, penurunan terbesar Flat sejak FY13 Flat
6,050 #N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
Downtrend
Sell Now
Neutral
Neutral
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
Uptrend
Still Sell
Neutral
Neutral
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
TLKM
Mengincar pinjaman perbankan dan obligasi di 2016 sebesar Rp15T
Fall to 3,120
SOCI
Berencana membeli 3-5 kapal baru
Fall to 485
BBTN
Mengincar kenaikan Fee Based Income sebesar 15% di 2016. Optimis laba bersih lampaui target FY16
Fall to 1,320
1,335
Uptrend
Sell Now
Overbought
Neutral
BBNI
Ingin fokus di KUR Retail
Fall to 4,975
5,000
Uptrend
Sell Now
Neutral
Neutral
BBRI
Memacu kredit mikro di FY16 tumbuh 20% YoY. Berencana terbitkan obligasi Rp6T di 2016
Rise to 11,775 11,600
Uptrend
Buy Now
Neutral
Neutral
16,250
Downtrend
Sell Now
Neutral
Neutral
1,250
Downtrend
Still Sell
Oversold
Neutral
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
AALI LSIP SGRO
Fall to 16,110 Kebijakan mandatori biodiesel berjalan terus meski harga Flat minyak turun Fall to 1,670
3,145 #N/A
#N/A
PTBA
Kaji kenaikan capex menjadi Rp5T di FY16 dari semula Rp3.5T
Flat
4,305
Downtrend
Sell Now
Oversold
Neutral
ADRO
Menurunkan produk batubara di 2016 menjadi 50Jt Ton dari sebelumnya ~54Jt Ton
Flat
493
Downtrend
Sell Now
Oversold
Neutral
TINS
Menargetkan kontribusi pendapatan dari anak usaha di sektor properti di FY16
rise to 479
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
January 11, 2016
#N/A
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MC Trading Recommendation Historical List
Today
LQ45
Call Action
Call Date
Open Price at Call Date
Prev. Close
LPKR
Buy
11-Jan-16
New
1,035
New
1,100
6.3%
PWON
Buy
11-Jan-16
New
479
New
500
4.4%
% Ch
Target % Upside Price
BBNI
Repeat Buy
8-Jan-16
5,000
5,000
0.0%
5,300
6.0%
WSKT
Buy
7-Jan-16
1,680
1,705
1.5%
1,760
3.2%
TLKM
Sell
6-Jan-16
3,250
3,145
Sell
BBNI
Buy
6-Jan-16
4,960
5,000
0.8%
5,300
6.0%
CPIN
Buy
5-Jan-16
2,615
2,845
8.8%
3,200
12.5%
TLKM
Buy
5-Jan-16
3,125
3,145
0.6%
3,220
2.4%
LPKR
: Buy – TP @ 1,100
PWON
: Buy – TP @ 500
Sell
Buy List
January 11, 2016
Buy
1st Call Date
Target Price
BBNI
6-Jan-16
5,300
CPIN
5-Jan-16
3,200
LPKR
11-Jan-16
1,100
PWON
11-Jan-16
500
WSKT
7-Jan-16
1,760
9
LPKR Buy – TP @ 1,100
LPKR mengalami Oversold berdasarkan ST Daily Stoch. Osc dan Weekly Stoch. Osc sehingga mengindikasikan Downtrend yang terjadi sejak Des’15 berpotensi berakhir di Support ~1,000
Terindikasi Microscopic Overbought yang memberikan indikasi Buy On Weakness di hari ini dan TP akan sangat mungkin di Upgrade
January 11, 2016
10
PWON Buy – TP @ 500
PWON membentuk Doji yang mengindikasikan penurunan sejak seminggu lalu berpotensi tertahan dan bentuk tersebut tepat di Middle Band sehingga Market Chartist melihat Uptrend akan terjaga
Stoch. Osc memberikan sinyal Buy di Oversold Area sehingga Market Chartist menilai sinyal tersebut akan akurat
January 11, 2016
11
Thank You… Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CSA, CFTe Market Chartist
[email protected] +6221 285 48382 (Direct) Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Menara Imperium, 21st floor Rasuna Said Kav. 1 Jakarta 12980, Indonesia
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