Batavia Daily Notes 18 February 2013
IDX Chart Intraday
Top Val
IDX MOVEMENT
Top Vol
Stock
Jakarta Composite
Stock
1 TLKM
2.05%
1 ENRG
0.00%
LQ-45
2 BUMI
-6.59%
2 PNLF
4.30%
Volume (mn lot)
3 SMGR
-0.91%
3 BUMI
-6.59%
4 BMRI
0.00%
4 BRMS
6.76%
5 TRAM
0.00%
5 UNSP
-3.88%
Market Update
Value (bn) Foreign Net Buy/(Sell) (bn) Market Breadth:
Menteri keuangan dari G20 meeting di Moscow membicarakan currency wars. General secretary OECD menyatakan tidak perlu ada kekhawatiran akan perang mata uang menyusul langkah Jepang yang menyebabkan pelemahan yen. Pengembang properti dalam negeri meminta agar semua lahan yang akan dibangun hunian vertikal berstatus hak pakai dapat dijual ke WNA tanpa kehilangan peluang di pasar domestik. Namun hal tersebut berpotensi mengerek harga properti lebih tinggi lagi. Seiring perseteruan Bakrie-Rothschild menjelang RUPSLB Bumi Plc 21/2 mendatang, Bakrie meminta pemerintah dan OJK ambil posisi. Saat ini hak suara kedua pihak sama-sama kuat. Jika kalah, Bakrie berpotensi kehilangan kendali atas BRAU dan BUMI. ESDM dan OJK dinilai bisa membatalkan transaksi kedua pihak yang terjadi pada 2010 lalu. Pagi ini, Nikkei 225 naik 1.7% dan Kospi relatif flat (-0.1%). Hari ini IHSG diperkirakan cenderung mixed.
21.11
789.82
3.52
0.46% 0.45%
13.44
-19.81%
4,850.59
-18.53%
392.75 Up 146; Flat 114; Down 118
MARKET INDICES Asia Hang Seng
Data ekonomi AS menunjukkan hasil mixed. Consumer sentiment sebesar 76.3, sementara ekspektasi hanya 75.0. Namun industrial production melemah 0.1%, lebih buruk dari ekspektasi yang menguat 0.3%. Sementara, laporan kinerja Campbell Soup melebihi ekspektasi, sementara Kraft Foods lebih buruk dari ekspektasi.
4,609.79
Shanghai (close) Nikkei 225
23,444.56
0.13%
2,432.40
0.00%
11,173.83
-1.18%
Straits Times
3,283.07
-0.22%
Thailand
1,521.52
-0.34%
Kospi
1,981.18
0.08%
Eropa FTSE 100
6,328.26
0.01%
DAX
7,593.51
-0.49%
CAC 40
3,660.37
-0.25%
Amerika Dow - Industrial
13,981.76
0.06%
S & P 500
1,519.79
-0.10%
NASDAQ
3,192.03
-0.21%
COMMODITIES Crude Oil Gold Copper Natural Gas Silver Soybean
95.86
-1.49%
1,610.10
-1.51%
375.35
0.03%
3.15
-0.32%
29.85
-1.66%
1,414.75
0.44%
Nickel
18,312.00
0.69%
Tin
24,766.00
-0.14%
CPO (Rotterdam) CPO (Malaysia) - MYR Coal (Weekly)
852.50
2.71%
2,483.00
-0.48%
94.05
1.40%
CURRENCIES USD/IDR
9,670.00
0.14%
AUD/IDR
10,018.17
0.17%
SGD/IDR
7,828.06
0.19%
JPY/IDR HKD/IDR EURO/IDR
104.61
1.34%
1,246.97
0.15%
12,893.31
-0.44%
OVERSEAS LISTING
Rp
TLKM (USD)
40.66
9,830
1.45%
ISAT (USD)
36.02
6,966
0.19%
BLTA (SGD) BUMI PLC (GBP)
0.03
0.00%
377.3
-7.07%
Daily Notes
18 February 2013
News Timah (TINS): Perseroan akan membentuk dua anak usaha untuk berekspansi ke Myanmar, masing-masing bergerak di sektor pertambangan dan pemurnian hasil tambang. Perseroan mengalokasikan dana USD 18 juta untuk mendirikan anak usaha tersebut. Selain itu, perseroan melalui anak usahanya, PT Timah Industry Mineral berencana mengakuisisi tambang batu bara di Sumatera Selatan. Tahun ini, harga rata-rata timah diharapkan naik menjadi USD 25 ribu per ton, dibanding 2012 sebesar USD 21.000 per ton. (Sumber: Bisnis Indonesia)
Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS) : Perseroan mengalokasikan capex USD 120 juta yang berasal dari kas internal. Sekitar 85% dana capex akan digunakan
untuk membangun 35 showroom baru tahun ini Perseroan santer dikabarkan akan membawa masuk merk Renault ke Indonesia. Namun, manajemen belum memberikan
keterangan perihal itu. Manajemen juga menampik kabar bahwa perseroan akan meniadakan penjualan kendaraan merk Volvo di Indonesia. (Sumber : Kontan)
Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF): Indofood (INDF) berencana membeli 14,95% saham China Minzhong Food Corporation Limited (CMFC) sebanyak 98 juta
saham baru senilai S$ 89,67 juta, perusahaan pengolahan sayuran terintegrasi asal Tiongkok yang terdaftar di bursa saham Singapura. Kedua belah pihak telah menandatangani perjanjian penyertaan saham pada 15 Februari 2013, dengan harga penjualan ditetapkan sebesar S$ 0,915 per saham. CMFC merupakan pemain dalam industri pengolahan sayuran terintegrasi, mulai budidaya, pengolahan, sampai
penjualan. Produknya antara lain, sayuran olahan dan sayuran segar, dipasarkan untuk domestic dan ekspor. (sumber: Investor Daily)
Semen Indonesia (SMGR): PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR) menuntaskan proses akuisisi Thang Long Cement JSC, produsen semen berbasis di
Vietnam, dengan membeli 70% saham Thang Long senilai US$ 157 juta. Perusahaan mengambil alih Thang Long dari Ha Noi General Export-Import Joint Stock Company (Geleximco). Kedua belah pihak telah menandatangani perjanjuan jual beli saham pada Desember 2012. Menurut Presiden Direktur Semen Indonesia Dwi Soedjipto, Thang Long memiliki lokasi strategis dengan dekatnya pabrik Thang Long dengan Pelabuhan Cai Lan, serta dekatnya pabrik penggilingan Thang Long dengan jalur transportasi Sungai Delta Mekong. (sumber: Investor Daily)
2
Daily Notes
18 February 2013
News Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM): Anak usaha PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (Telkom) yaitu PT Infomedia Nusantara (Infomedia) mengincar pangsa
pasar 50% dari bisnis contact center serta menargetkan pendapatan sebesar Rp 1,542 triliun pada 2013. Pada akhir 2012, Infomedia mencatat pendapatan sebesar Rp 1,248 triliun atau naik 30% dibanding tahun 2011, sementara laba bersih perseroan tercatat sekitar Rp 155 miliar pada akhir 2012. Perseroan menargetkan pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar 23% pada tahun 2013, dan untuk merealisasikan target tersebut, Perseroan akan mengembangkan layan produk contact center yang mengarah ke digital, Perseroan menyediakan belanja modal sebesar Rp 135 miliar yang berasal dari pendanaan internal. (sumber: Investor Daily) Gorup Recapital: Grup Recapital berniat melepas 13% saham Bumi Plc ke hedge fund asal Amerika Serikat (AS) dan perusahaan pengelola
dana dari Hong Kong. Aksi Recapital ini, menurut The Sunday Telegraph, surat kabar Inggris dapat menyeimbangkan struktur hak suara di Bumi Plc akibaat berkurangnya hak suara pemegang saham Indonesia. Adapun komposisi pemegang saham Bumi Plc saat ini adalah Grup Bakrie dan PT Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal Tbk (BORN) masing-masing sebesar 23,8%, Bukit Mutiara 13%, Rothschild 11%, dan sisanya dikuasai public. Bukit Mutiara adalah perusahaan milik Grup Recapital sedangkan Borneo dimiliki Samin Tan. (sumber: Investor Daily)
3
Daily Notes
18 February 2013
Jadwal Aksi Korporasi / RUPS-RUPSLB
Cash Dividend Kode
Cum-date
Ex-date
Pay-out date
Dividen per share
DVLA
19-Feb-13
20-Feb-13
28-Feb-13
Rp 18
Tipe
Cum-date
Ex-date
Keterangan
Nominal 100 100
Offering 14 - 18 Feb 2013 12 - 13 Feb 2013
Listing 22-Feb-13 18-Feb-13
Price Rp 260 - Rp 390 Rp 220 - Rp 250
Corporate Action Kode
Harga (exercise)
IPO Company Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Trans Power Marine
RUPS/RUPSLB
4
Kode
Tanggal
Waktu
GDST
12-Feb-13
15:00
Company Office, Surabaya
Tempat
TKGA
13-Feb-13
14:00
Toko Gunung Agung, Kwitang, Jakarta
MLBI
15-Feb-13
10:00
Jakarta
META
18-Feb-13
10:00
Jakarta
MYOH
19-Feb-13
14:00
Jakarta
SULI
20-Feb-13
08:30
Cempaka Room, Balai Kartini Building, Jakarta
PTIS
22-Feb-13
09:00
Graha Kirana Building, Jakarta Utara
ALKA
26-Feb-13
09:00
Company Office, Pulogadung, Jakarta
BULL
27-Feb-13
10:00
Jakarta
BBRI
28-Feb-13
09:30
BRI 1 Building, Sudirman, Jakarta
ROTI
28-Feb-13
10:00
Ballroom A, Grand Hyatt Hotel, Jakarta
BKSW
4-Mar-13
10:00
QNB Kesawan Tower, SCBD, Jakarta
TRIM
4-Mar-13
15:00
Tiara 1 Room, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Jakarta
BRAU
7-Mar-13
10:00
Jakarta
TBIG
7-Mar-13
10:00
The Ritz Carlton Hotel, Mega Kuningan, Jakarta
ARII
13-Mar-13
14:00
Seminar Room, IDX Building, Tower II, Jakarta
MAYA
14-Mar-13
14:00
Multifunction Room, Mayapada Tower, Sudirman, Jakarta
ELSA
14-Mar-13
10:00
Udaya Room, Graha Elnusa, TB Simatupang, Jakarta Selatan
MERK
20-Mar-13
10:00
Company Office, TB Simatupang, Jakarta Selatan
12F
13F
11A
12F
13F
11A
12F
13F
11A
12F
13F
11A
12F
13F
Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold
10,050 8,700 4,400 6,000 9,100
10,500 9,000 4,650 6,250 9,000
4.48% 3.45% 5.68% 4.17% -1.10%
247,783 214,622 82,054 57,508 212,333
10,819 11,782 13,906 15,083 18,681 19,654 5,826 6,313 7,470 3,335 4,043 4,565 12,246 13,997 16,647
443 611 312 348 525
483 757 339 422 600
564 797 401 476 713
22.7 14.2 14.1 17.2 17.3
20.8 11.5 13.0 14.2 15.2
17.8 10.9 11.0 12.6 12.8
1,725 2,018 2,023 2,674 2,648
2,052 2,620 2,288 2,905 3,138
2,532 3,247 2,570 3,170 3,731
5.8 4.3 2.2 2.2 3.4
4.9 3.3 1.9 2.1 2.9
4.0 2.7 1.7 1.9 2.4
25.7% 30.3% 15.4% 13.0% 19.8%
23.5% 28.9% 14.8% 14.5% 19.1%
22.3% 24.5% 15.6% 15.0% 19.1%
Energy ITMG IJ Equity PTBA IJ Equity ADRO IJ Equity UNTR IJ Equity PGAS IJ Equity
Hold Buy Hold Hold Buy
40,500 15,600 1,630 19,350 4,750
41,000 17,000 1,600 19,300 5,100
1.23% 8.97% -1.84% -0.26% 7.37%
45,762 35,944 52,137 72,178 115,147
5,078 3,086 4,382 5,898 5,933
2,474 2,903 4,418 5,573 7,368
2,449 3,527 5,003 5,855 8,080
4,464 1,339 137 1,581 245
2,232 1,260 139 1,494 304
2,418 1,531 156 1,570 333
9.1 11.7 11.9 12.2 19.4
18.1 12.4 11.7 13.0 15.6
16.7 10.2 10.4 12.3 14.3
8,762 3,540 800 7,056 653
8,558 4,046 960 8,076 823
9,946 4,895 825 9,198 989
4.6 4.4 2.0 2.7 7.3
4.7 3.9 1.7 2.4 5.8
4.1 3.2 2.0 2.1 4.8
60.6% 38.2% 22.6% 22.4% 37.5%
24.7% 31.1% 16.7% 18.5% 36.9%
25.6% 31.3% 16.9% 17.1% 33.7%
Infrastructure INTP IJ Equity* SMCB IJ Equity* SMGR IJ Equity* JSMR IJ Equity
Buy Hold Hold Buy
22,050 3,225 16,350 5,500
25,039 3,400 16,618 6,400
13.56% 5.43% 1.64% 16.36%
81,171 24,713 96,980 37,400
3,602 1,064 3,802 1,339
4,004 1,339 4,200 1,754
5,066 1,449 5,015 2,182
978 139 641 198
1,088 175 708 259
1,376 189 849 322
22.5 23.2 25.5 27.8
20.3 18.4 23.1 21.2
16.0 17.1 19.3 17.1
4,275 969 2,370 1,228
5,091 1,046 2,728 1,358
6,114 1,198 3,589 1,519
5.2 3.3 6.9 4.5
4.3 3.1 6.0 4.1
3.6 2.7 4.6 3.6
23.0% 14.0% 27.0% 16.0%
21.0% 16.0% 26.0% 19.0%
23.0% 16.0% 27.0% 21.0%
Plantation AALI IJ Equity LSIP IJ Equity SGRO IJ Equity BWPT IJ Equity
Buy Buy Buy Buy
19,100 2,250 2,400 1,350
22,500 2,550 2,650 1,720
17.80% 13.33% 10.42% 27.41%
30,078 15,351 4,536 5,470
2,406 1,702 541 320
2,217 1,265 306 289
2,275 1,414 404 454
1,528 249 286 79
1,408 185 162 72
1,444 207 214 112
12.5 9.0 8.4 17.1
13.6 12.2 14.8 18.8
13.2 10.9 11.2 12.1
5,974 856 1,306 353
5,660 942 1,334 414
6,260 1,075 1,472 515
3.2 2.6 1.8 3.8
3.4 2.4 1.8 3.3
3.1 2.1 1.6 2.6
29.6% 29.1% 21.9% 22.5%
24.9% 19.7% 12.1% 17.3%
23.1% 19.3% 14.5% 21.8%
Hold Buy Buy Hold
6,700 1,140 1,130 23000
6,700 1,300 1,260 20,400
0.00% 14.04% 11.50% -11.30%
58,829 8,089 57,381 175,490
3,077 378 1,482 4,164
3,502 454 1,732 4,774
3,775 508 2,006 5,373
350 53 32 546
399 64 37 626
430 72 43 704
19.1 21.5 35.3 42.1
16.8 17.8 30.5 36.7
15.6 15.8 26.3 32.7
2,209 400 133 482
2,428 434 151 562
2,698 470 175 640
3.0 2.9 8.5 47.7
2.8 2.6 7.5 40.9
2.5 2.4 6.5 35.9
15.9% 13.3% 23.8% 113.3%
16.4% 14.7% 24.5% 111.3%
15.9% 15.2% 24.4% 110.0%
Buy Sell
2700 4225
3050 3,715
12.96% -12.07%
4,577 69,282
205 2,355
348 3,290
402 3,800
121 144
205 201
237 232
22.3 13.17 29.3 21.0
11.4 18.2
249 376
392 534
558 706
10.8 11.2
6.9 7.9
4.8 6.0
48.7% 38.2%
52.3% 37.5%
42.4% 32.8%
Hold Buy Buy Buy Hold Hold Hold
2,050 1,370 1,400 390 830 2,275 1,650
2,193 1525 1,677 446 812 2,343 1,775
6.98% 11.31% 19.79% 14.36% -2.17% 2.99% 7.58%
14,787 6,446 24,496 7,995 16,309 4,098 10,078
392 257 841 581 603 182 354
539 680 944 733 788 183 437
576 889 1,371 861 1,362 288 557
57 55 48 28 34 104 61
78 145 54 32 42 107 72
84 189 77 46 70 175 95
35.9 24.9 29.1 13.8 24.6 21.9 27.0
26.1 9.4 25.9 12.4 19.5 21.3 22.9
24.4 7.2 18.2 8.5 11.9 13.0 17.4
360 255 350 211 153 560 254
427 394 393 242 202 625 408
501 574 508 277 266 766 470
5.7 5.4 4.0 1.9 5.4 4.1 6.5
4.8 3.5 3.6 1.6 4.1 3.6 4.0
4.1 2.4 2.8 1.4 3.1 3.0 3.5
16.9% 23.4% 12.9% 14.1% 24.4% 19.7% 18.3%
19.9% 38.8% 12.2% 11.7% 16.6% 17.8% 19.5%
18.1% 34.2% 15.0% 16.0% 29.0% 24.6% 22.4%
Hold
7,750
7,450
-3.87%
313,748
17,785 19,481 22,949
439
481
567
17.7
16.1
13.7
1,493
1,782
2,122
5.2
4.3
3.7
29.4%
27.0%
26.7%
Consumer INDF IJ Equity RALS IJ Equity KLBF IJ Equity UNVR IJ Equity Poultry MAIN IJ Equity CPIN IJ Equity Property SMRA IJ Equity SSIA IJ Equity BSDE IJ Equity* APLN IJ Equity* ASRI IJ Equity* ADHI IJ Equity* WIKA IJ Equity* Conglomerates ASII IJ Equity
Mkt Cap
%
EPS
PER (X)
PBV (X)
Book Value/ share
ROE
18 February 2013
*Based on Bloomberg consensus
Upside
Stock Universe – Earnings Guide
11A
(Rp) Banking BBCA IJ Equity BBRI IJ Equity BBNI IJ Equity BDMN IJ Equity BMRI IJ Equity
Price
Daily Notes
5 Rp Bn
Net Profit Rp Bn 11A 12F 13F
Target Price (Rp)
Rating
Head Office Chase Plaza, 12th Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 21, Jakarta 12920 Tel : +62-21 520 7374 Fax : +62-21 2598 9821 www.bps.co.id Research Team Andy Ferdinand
Head of Research
Banking, Consumer, Gas Infrastructure & Strategy
[email protected]
Parningotan Julio
Analyst
Technical
[email protected]
Yasmin Soulisa
Analyst
Coal, Plantation & Telcos
[email protected]
Steven Gunawan
Research Associate
[email protected]
Jl. BKR No. 28 C
Medan
Branches Bandung
Surabaya
Medan 20151
Tel : +62-22 730 7111, 731 8691 Fax : +62-22 730 7020
Tel : +62-61 453 1150 Fax : +62-61 414 9884
Darmo Square Blok B No. 8 Jl. Raya Darmo No. 54-56 , Surabaya 60264
Makassar
Tel : +62-31 562 3445 Fax : +62-31 568 9568 Malang
Jl. Brigjend. Katamso No. 56 A
Bandung 40265
Jl. Kahuripan No. 5
Ruko Ruby 1 No. 9 Jl. Raya Boulevard Panakukang Mas, Makassar 90222 Tel : +62-411 430 959 (hunting) , 455 038 (sales) Fax : +62-411 432 376
Semarang
Thamrin Square Blok C 12
Malang 65119
Jl. Thamrin No. 5, Semarang 50244
Tel : +62-341 358 889 Fax : +62-341 353 797
Tel : +62-24 351 6161 Fax : +62-24 351 8546
Batavia Prosperindo Sekuritas Investment Ratings: BUY – expected total return of 10% or more; HOLD – expected total return of -10% to 10%; SELL – expected total return of -10% or less. Expected total return is defined as 12-month total return (including dividends).
DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources we deem reliable, however, PT. Batavia Prosperindo Sekuritas or its affiliates, cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. The views expressed in this report accurately reflect personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations and/or views in this report. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances. This report is published solely for information purposes and should not be considered as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Neither PT. Batavia Prosperindo Sekuritas nor any of its affiliates and/or employees accepts any liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from any use of this publication. Copyright and database rights protection exists in this publication and it may not be reproduced, distributed and/or published by any person for any purpose without prior consent of PT. Batavia Prosperindo Sekuritas. All rights are reserved.
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