Company Update
Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) Bloomberg: INDF.IJ | Reuters: INDF.JK
Samuel Equity Research
30 March 2016
Performance expected to improve this year Tidak jauh berbeda dengan kinerja 9M15, INDF pada FY15 membukukan total pendapatan dan EBIT yang relatif flat dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya, sementara laba bersihnya menurun siknifikan akibat forex loss. Laba tersebut mencerminkan 10% di atas ekspektasi kami seiring forex loss yang lebih baik dari perkiraan atau 4% di bawah ekspektasi konsensus. Di tahun ini, kinerja INDF diperkirakan akan lebih baik karena penguatan harga CPO, perbaikan kondisi makro termasuk kenaikan nilai tukar rupiah, dan potensi penurunan beban bunga dari hasil divestasi Minzhong. Buy dengan target price dinaikkan menjadi Rp 8.000 (18,7x PE 2016F).
BUY (Maintain) Target Price
Rp 8,000
Last Price
Rp 7,000
Potential Upside
14.3%
JCI Index
4,790
Share Issued (m n)
8,780
Laba bersih FY15 ditopang oleh Divisi CBP. INDF mencatatkan pertumbuhan pendapatan bersih 0,7% yoy menjadi Rp 64,1 triliun ditopang oleh kenaikan pendapatan Divisi CBP yang sebesar 6,1%, sementara Divisi Bogasari dan Agribusiness mencatatkan penurunan masing-masing 3,8% dan 7,7%. Dari sisi EBIT, Divisi CBP mampu tumbuh 24,6% sementara divisi lainnya mengalami pelemahan. Laba bersih FY15 tercatat turun 24,7% menjadi Rp 3,0 triliun (4Q15vs4Q14:+47,6%). Laba tersebut mencerminkan 10% di atas ekspektasi kami karena forex loss yang lebih kecil dari perkiraan. Dibandingkan konsensus, laba tersebut berada 4% di bawah ekspektasi.
Market Cap. (Rp bn)
61,463
52-Weeks High/Low
7,575/4,560
Divisi Bogasari di tengah-tengah kompetisi ketat. Kami melihat kompetisi di pasar terigu semakin ketat, dimana manajemen mencatat akan ada sejumlah pemain baru di pasar. Walaupun harga gandum masih dalam tren menurun, marjin diperkirakan tidak akan banyak meningkat karena kompetisi akan membatasi besar marjin. Kami menilai strategi perusahaan untuk mempertahankan konsumen saat ini dan bertumbuh bersama merupakan hal positif.
Relative to JCI Chart
Harga CPO membaik pada 1Q16. Harga CPO yang melemah sepanjang tahun lalu mendorong pelemahan Divisi Agribusiness dimana pendapatan dan EBIT turun masing-masing 7,7% dan 32,6%. Sejalan dengan ekspektasi kami, pada 1Q16 kami melihat ada perbaikan pada harga CPO yang dapat berimpas positif bagi divisi ini. Divestasi Minzhong masih sesuai rencana. Kami masih percaya bahwa transaksi divestasi Minzhong akan berjalan sesuai rencana, menyusul diterimanya pembayaran uang muka pada akhir tahun lalu. Sesuai rencana manajemen, kami mengasumsikan penggunaan dana hasil divestasi tersebut untuk membayar sebagian hutang valas, sehingga dapat berujung pada penurunan beban bunga dan eksposur ke valas. Kinerja 2016 diperkirakan membaik; Buy. Kami memperkirakan kinerja INDF di tahun ini akan lebih baik dari tahun lalu didorong oleh peningkatan harga CPO, perbaikan kondisi makro termasuk penguatan nilai tukar rupiah, dan transaksi divestasi Minzhong. Berdasarkan pencapaian kinerja 2015, situasi terkini, dan guidance dari manajemen, kami merevisi ke atas forecast kami. Pendapatan bersih dan laba bersih diperkirakan meningkat 8,3% dan 26,4% pada 2016. Kami menaikkan target price menjadi Rp 8.000 (18,7x PE 2016). Buy.
Avg Daily Vol (m n)
9.4
Free Float
50%
Nom inal Value
100
EPS 2016
Rp 427
20% 10% 0% Dec-14 -10%
Mar-15
-20%
INDF
-30%
JCI
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
-40%
Com pany Background PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk w as established in 1990 under the name of PT Panganjaya Intikusuma. Currently, the company operates in such as processed food, seasoning, beverages, packaging, cooking oil, and w heat grain mills. Shareholder Structure CAB Holdings Limited
50.1%
Others
0.0%
Public
49.9%
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp7,000 per share) Y/E Dec (Rp Bn) Revenue EBIT EBITDA Net Profit EPS (Rp) BV per Share (Rp) DPS (Rp) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x) Dividend Yield (%)
14A 63,594 7,320 9,580 3,942 449 2,859 142 7.7 15.6 2.4 2.0
15A 64,062 7,363 9,542 2,968 338 3,106 220 8.0 20.7 2.3 3.1
16E 69,374 8,214 10,662 3,750 427 3,387 166 6.7 16.4 2.1 2.4
17E 77,130 9,176 11,684 4,576 521 3,718 209 6.0 13.4 1.9 3.0
Andy Ferdinand, CFA +62 21 2854 8148
[email protected]
Page 1 of 5 DISCLAIMERS: Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) prin cipally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
Table 1. Quarterly Results 4Q14
Rpbn Net Sales*
3Q15
4Q15
QoQ
YoY
FY14
FY15
YoY
16,712
14,929
16,498
10.5%
-1.3%
63,594
64,062
CBP
7,488
7,546
7,897
4.6%
5.5%
29,921
31,736
6.1%
Bogasari
5,175
4,372
5,167
18.2%
-0.2%
19,926
19,177
-3.8%
Agribusiness
4,396
3,274
3,752
14.6%
-14.6%
14,947
13,803
-7.7%
Distribution
1,134
1,171
1,174
0.2%
3.5%
4,865
4,978
2.3%
EBIT**
1,950
1,574
1,938
23.1%
-0.6%
7,320
7,363
0.6%
CBP
582
873
849
-2.8%
45.9%
3,096
3,856
24.6%
Bogasari
394
151
434
188.0%
10.2%
1,457
1,341
-7.9%
Agribusiness
711
386
469
21.5%
-34.0%
2,235
1,506
-32.6%
43
3.1%
-6.1%
197
172
-12.7%
1,284
NA
47.6%
3,942
2,968
-24.7%
Distribution
46
42
Net Incom e***
870
(47)
EBIT Margin
11.7%
10.5%
11.7%
120bps
8bps
11.5%
11.5%
-2bps
7.8%
11.6%
10.8%
-82bps
298bps
10.3%
12.2%
180bps
CBP Bogasari Agribusiness
0.7%
7.6%
3.4%
8.4%
495bps
79bps
7.3%
7.0%
-32bps
16.2%
11.8%
12.5%
71bps
-367bps
15.0%
10.9%
-404bps
4.0%
3.6%
3.7%
10bps
-38bps
4.0%
3.5%
-59bps
5.2%
-0.3%
7.8%
810bps
258bps
6.2%
4.6%
-157bps
Distribution Net Margin
* Net sales: after eliminatio n; Co mpo nents: befo re eliminatio n. ** EB IT: after eliminatio n and with unallo cated inco me/expenses; Co mpo nents: befo re eliminatio n and witho ut unallo cated inco me/expenses. *** attributed to the equity ho lders o f the parent entity.
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 1. Segment Contribution
FY15 Segment Contribution 120.0%
100.0% 80.0%
7.8% 18.8%
2.5% 21.9%
60.0%
24.1%
19.5%
49.3%
56.1%
External Sales
EBIT
Agribisnis Bogasari CBP
40.0% 20.0%
Distribusi
0.0%
Source: Company, SSI Research
www.samuel.co.id
Page 2 of 5
Figure 2. Net Sales Growth
Figure 5. Wheat Price
20,000
30.0%
18,000
25.0%
16,000
14,000
20.0%
12,000
15.0%
10,000 8,000
10.0%
6,000
5.0%
4,000
0.0%
2,000 -
-5.0% 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15
Net Sales (Rp bn)
Wheat Price (USD/Bu) 700 650 600
550 500 450 400 Dec-14
Net Sales yoy Growth
Mar-15
Jun-15
Source: Company, SSI Research
Source: Bloomberg, SSI Research
Figure 3. Profitability Margin
Figure 6. USD/IDR
35%
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
USD/IDR
30%
15,000
25% 20%
14,000
15%
13,000
10% 5%
12,000
0% -5%
1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 Series1
Series2
11,000 Dec-14
Series3
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Source: Company, SSI Research
Source: Bloomberg, SSI Research
Figure 4. CPO Price
Figure 7. Rolling 12M Forward PE
Dec-15
Mar-16
26.5
CPO Price (MYR/MT) 2,800
21.5
2,600
16.5
2,400 11.5
2,200 2,000
6.5
1,800
1.5 Jan-11
1,600 1,400 Dec-14
Mar-15
Source: Bloomberg, SSI Research
www.samuel.co.id
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Average
ST dev +1
ST dev -1
PE - Forward
ST dev +2
ST dev -2
Source: Bloomberg, SSI Research
Page 3 of 5
Key Financials Profit and Loss (Rp bn) Revenue
Cash Flow 14A
15A
16E 69,374
17E
63,594
64,062
77,130
EBIT
7,320
7,363
8,214
9,176
EBITDA
9,580
9,542
10,662
11,684
Net Profit
3,942
2,968
3,750
4,576
(Rp bn)
Cash
15A
16E
17E
4,576
Depr. and Amort.
2,260
2,179
2,448
2,509
31
3,714
Chg in Working Capital Chg in Others
CFI Chg in Debt
(536) 3,603
4,214
9,733
7,132
(3,462)
(4,712)
(7,434) (10,162)
13,076
13,124
10,629
4,256
4,609
5,124
Dividend Payment
Inventories
8,446
7,627
8,227
9,141
Others
Other CA
14,855
17,858
10,575
11,104
CFF
Current Assets
41,014
42,817
36,535
35,998
Chg in Cash
Fixed Assets
21,982
25,096
25,758
27,594
Adjustment (inc. fx effect)
(18)
Other Non-CA
23,081
23,919
24,450
25,581
Non-current Assets
45,063
49,015
50,208
53,176
Total Assets
86,077
91,832
86,743
89,174
3,818
3,584
3,866
4,295
Debt
26,933
27,606
22,666
Others
15,052
17,520
13,512
Total Liabilities
45,803
48,710
Total Equity
25,104
27,269
Minority Interest
15,170
15,852
120 (5,666)
-
-
(3,462)
(4,712)
(423)
673
(4,940)
(3,249)
(1,247) 3,073
(1,932) 1,118
(1,454) 172
(1,838) 172
1,403
(141)
(6,223)
(4,915)
510
(1,593) 511
48 -
(2,495) -
Ratio 14A
15A
16E
17E
EBIT Margin
11.5%
11.5%
11.8%
11.9%
19,417
EBITDA Margin
14,665
NPM
15.1% 6.2%
14.9% 4.6%
15.4% 5.4%
15.1% 5.9%
40,044
38,377
ROE
15.7%
10.9%
12.6%
14.0%
29,737
32,647
ROA
4.6%
3.2%
4.3%
5.1%
16,962
18,149
Revenue Grow th
14.3%
0.7%
8.3%
11.2%
EBIT Grow th
19.8%
0.6%
11.6%
11.7%
Net Profit Grow th
57.4%
-24.7%
26.4%
22.0%
4.7
2.8
6.1
8.0
50.9%
53.3%
32.1%
26.9%
Interest Coverage (x) Macro Assum ption
www.samuel.co.id
811 (765)
(5,786)
3,555
CPI (yoy) USD/IDR (avg)
(180)
9,269
14,158
GDP Grow th (yoy)
(964)
(2,728)
Receivables
Payables
17E
3,750
Others 14A
16E
2,968
Capex Yr-end (Rp bn)
15A
3,942
CFO Balance Sheet
14A
Net Profit
Net Debt to Equity 14A
15A
16E
17E
RCP (days)
20.4
24.2
24.2
24.2
5.0%
4.7%
5.1%
5.4%
IRP (days)
54.8
49.1
49.1
49.1
8.4% 11,885
3.4% 13,460
4.5% 13,650
5.5% 13,200
PPP (days)
24.8
23.1
23.1
23.1
CCC (days)
50.4
50.3
50.3
50.3
Page 4 of 5
www.samuel.co.id
Page 5 of 5
