Ciputra Development Tbk (CTRA)
Kejutan Mei Company Update 1Q17 | June 19, 2017
Struktur yang Lebih Ramping Laba bersih CTRA pada 1Q17 tercatat sebesar Rp216 miliar (+12% y-y) dan mencapai 18% dari konsensus laba bersih 2017. Kenaikan laba bersih ini dibantu oleh penjualan kepemilikan saham di Citra Mitra Digdaya sebesar Rp65,9 miliar. Apabila penjualan ini tidak dihitung, maka laba bersih CTRA pada 1Q17 hanya mencapai Rp150 miliar (21.8% y-y).
Buy
Pada 2017, beban bunga CTRA berpotensi turun akibat pelunasan obligasi seri A sebesar Rp200 miliar. Selain itu, utang jangka panjang juga turun sebesar 7,8% q-q untuk pertama kalinya karena adanya pelunasan.
Shares data Last Price (IDR) Price date as of 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) Free float (%) Outstanding sh.(mn) Market Cap (IDR bn) Market Cap (USD mn) Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn) Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn) Foreign Ownership
Realisasi Marketing Sales Menggembirakan Kinerja CTRA pada 2017 akan lebih baik setelah pencapaian marketing sales yang baik. Pada 5M17, CTRA membukukan marketing sales sebesar Rp2,63 triliun. Realisasi ini mencapai 31% dari target 2017 sebesar Rp8,5 triliun. Dua proyek utama di Cibubur dan Makassar menjadi penopang realisasi marketing sales. Selain itu, CTRA juga akan meluncurkan 5 proyek baru di segmen rumah tapak dan apartemen. Target Harga Rp1.550 Kami menggunakan asumsi forward P/E sebesar 19,0x (rata-rata 3 tahun) sebagai basis metode valuasi. Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/E 2017 sebesar 23,7x (vs 20,7x saat ini). Ciputra Development, Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) in IDR bn Sales Sales growth EBITDA Net profit EPS (IDR) EPS growth BVPS (IDR) EBITDA margin NPM ROE ROA P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA DPS (IDR) Dividend yield
2015/12A 2016/12A 2017/12E 2018/12E 7,514 6,739 7,217 8,259 18.5% -10.3% 7.1% 14.4% 2,655 2,057 2,334 2,890 1,284 861 1,014 1,289 82.7 55.8 54.7 69.5 -3.1% -32.9% 17.7% 27.1% 841 927 820 881 35.3% 30.5% 32.3% 35.0% 17.1% 12.8% 14.1% 15.6% 10.4% 6.3% 6.9% 8.2% 5.2% 3.1% 3.4% 3.9% 17.5x 23.9x 20.7x 16.3x 1.7x 1.4x 1.4x 1.3x 11x 14x 11x 9x (8) (6) (6) (7) 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7%
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia
Dec 2017 TP (IDR)
1,550
Consensus Price (IDR) TP to Consensus Price vs. Last Price
1,629 -13.4% +24.8%
1,130 June 16, 2017 1,705/1,090 74.5 18,560 21,344 1,605 24.2 28.9 49.2%
Property Residential Estate
Bloomberg Reuters
CTRA IJ CTRA.JK
Bima Setiaji +62 21 797 6202, ext:114
[email protected]
Share Price Performance
YTD 1M Abs. Ret. -13.1% -2.6% Rel. Ret. -22.4% -4.8%
3M -11.4% -15.9%
12M -17.6% -37.5%
Company Report June 19 2017
Cibubur and Makassar dan Penopang Marketing Sales Hingga 5M17, CTRA berhasil mencatat marketing sales sebesar Rp2,6 triliun yang terbesar di antara perusahaan properti lainnya. Pencapaian ini ditopang oleh peluncuran dua proyek di Cibubur dan Makassar yang berhasil menaikkan marketing sales sebesar 154% m-m pada Mei. CTRA tetap agresif dalam pengembangan di wilayah Cibubur, Jawa Barat. Proyek Citraland Cibubur memiliki area sebesar 600 hektare. Di proyek ini, CTRA telah merilis klaster Caryota dan Aphanda dengan total 320 unit, yang langsung habis terjual pada Mei 2017. Kami mengestimasi bahwa marketing sales yang didapat dari proyek ini sebesar Rp350 miliar. Kawasan Cibubur masih menjadi pilihan tempat tinggal dengan adanya pengembangan proyek infrastruktur baru seperti tol Cimanggis-Cibitung dan proyek pelebaran jalan Cibubur-Jonggol. CTRA jeli dalam mengembangkan proyek yang mampu mengakomodir semua segmen pasar. CTRA menawarkan berbagai tipe unit rumah serta proyek central business district (CBD). CTRA Marketing Sales & Revenue (IDR bn)| FY2012 - FY2018E
CTRA Marketing Sales (IDR bn)| 1M 2017 - 5M 2017
Source: Company
Source: Company
Diperkirakan bahwa pada 2017, CTRA mampu meraih marketing sales sebesar Rp400 miliar proyek Citraland Tallasa City yang berada di Makassar, Sulawesi Selatan. Harga per unit rumah di proyek ini sebesar Rp800 juta hingga Rp1,5 miliar. Proyek ini memiliki luas 700 hektare dan akan dilengkapi dengan fasilitas penunjang seperti area komersial maka CTRA juga berpotensi menambah pendapatan berulang. CTRA Customer Payment Profile| 5M 2017
Marketing Sales Achievement (IDR bn)| 5M 2017
Source: Company
Source: Company
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
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Company Report June 19 2017
Peluncuran Produk Baru CTRA akan meluncurkan 5 proyek baru lagi sepanjang 2017. Lima proyek tersebut adalah Ciputra Beach Resort di Bali (4,5 hectare), apartemen The Newton 2, The Suites Apartment di Ciputra World Jakarta (CWJ) 2, Citra Plaza Batam, serta apartemen di Yogyakarta. Dari 5 proyek tersebut, proyek Ciputra Beach Resort di Bali sangat prospektif. Pembelian properti di Bali meningkat tajam dalam beberapa waktu terakhir. Selain itu, terpilihnya Bali sebagai tujuan wisata utama dunia diperkirakan meningkatkan minat terhadap proyek properti di Bali. Marketing Sales By Geographical Spread | 2016 - 5M 2017
Marketing Sales Breakdown| 5M 2017
Source: Company
Source: Company
Beberapa perusahaan rintisan teknologi juga telah menyatakan minatnya untuk membuat co-working space di Bali. Salah satu pendorongnya adalah harga sewa kantor di Bali yang masih rendah dibandingkan harga sewa kantor di beberapa lokasi premium dunia. Di Sillicon Valley, harga sewa kantor telah mencapai USD500.000 untuk 3 bulan, 6 bulan untuk di Singapura, dan 2 tahun di Bali. Properti di Bali juga didukung oleh infrastruktur yang sudah sangat memadai. Selain itu, kondisi politik dan keamanan di Bali juga cukup stabil. Commercial Office Index Growth | Q1 2017
Residential Property Price Index| Q1 2017
Source: Bank Indonesia
Source: Bank Indonesia
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
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Company Report June 19 2017
Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 3 years
Dynamic Forward P/E band | Last 3 years
Source: NHKS research
Source: NHKS research
Rating and Target Price Update Target Price Date
Rating
Target Price
12/30/2016 4/11/2017 6/16/2017
Buy Buy Buy
1,770 1,410 1,550
Last Price 1,335 1,130 1,130
Consensus 1,667 1,629 1,568
vs Last Price +32.6% +24.8% +37.2%
vs Consensus +6.2% -13.4% -1.1%
Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg
Analyst Coverage Rating
Closing and Target Price
Source: Bloomberg
Source: NHKS research
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings 1. 2.
Period: End of year target price Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication Buy : Greater than +15% Hold : -15% to +15% Sell : Less than -15%
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 44
Company Report June 19 2017
Financial Summary CTRA Summary Last Price (IDR) Target Price (IDR) Analyst: Bima Setiaji
June 16, 2017 Dec 2017 Rating:
1,130 1,550 Buy
INCOME STATEMENT in IDR bn Sales Growth (% y/y)
2015/12A 7,514 18.5% (3,786) COGS 3,729 Gross Profit 49.6% Gross Margin Opera ti ng Expens es (1,315) EBIT 2,414 EBIT Margin 32% Depreci a ti on 241 EBITDA 2,655 EBITDA Margin 35% Interes t & Other Expens es (490) EBT 2,165 Income Ta x (146) Mi nori ty Interes t (735) Net Profit 1,284 Growth (% y/y) -3.1% Net Profit Margin 17%
2016/12A 6,739 -10.3% (3,450) 3,290 48.8% (1,313) 1,977 29% 81 2,057 31% (557) 1,501 (155) (484) 861 -32.9% 13%
2017/12E 7,217 7.1% (3,692) 3,524 48.8% (1,425) 2,099 29% 235 2,334 32% (647) 1,687 (280) (393) 1,014 17.7% 14%
2018/12E 8,259 14.4% (4,131) 4,129 50.0% (1,545) 2,584 31% 307 2,890 35% (668) 2,222 (314) (619) 1,289 27.1% 16%
2017/12E 3,514 822 8,952 14,730 13,966 2,285 30,981 808 1,740 6,092 4,704 2,447 15,790 15,191
2018/12E 4,205 1,107 9,630 16,343 15,559 2,400 34,301 1,208 1,903 7,241 5,146 2,467 17,965 16,336
PROFITABILITY & STABILITY
Cash Conversion Cycle Pa r Va l ue (IDR) Tota l Sha res (bn) Sha re Pri ce (IDR) Ma rket Ca p (IDR bn)
BALANCE SHEET in IDR bn Ca s h Recei va bl es Inventori es Total Current Assets Net Fi xed As s ets Other Non Current As s ets Total Assets Pa ya bl es ST Debt
Other Current Liab.
LT Debt Other Non Current Li a b. Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity
2015/12A 3,035 874 7,010 12,023 12,151 2,085 26,259 914 1,375 5,725 3,902 1,293 13,208 13,050
2016/12A 3,468 938 7,945 13,711 12,743 2,619 29,072 829 1,686 4,796 4,976 2,487 14,774 14,298
2015/12A 1,284 241 (177) 1,347 (1,543) (914) (2,457) (158) 641 1,255 146
2016/12A 910 207 (1,059) 58 (699) (372) (1,070) (123) 1,384 1,446 433
2017/12E 1,014 235 719 1,968 (1,797) 230 (1,567) (93) (228) (356) 45
% 50.9 23.7 12.3
2017/12E 6.9% 3.4% 8.2% 15.8% 7.8% 103 0.5% 10.1% 42% 71% 31% 30% 49% 21% 204% 170% 50% 41% 430 100 18.5 1,130 20,945
2018/12E 8.2% 3.9% 10.3% 18.3% 8.9% 136 0.7% 10.6% 43% 68% 31% 30% 48% 21% 207% 158% 51% 41% 409 100 18.5 1,130 20,945
Shareholders PT Sa ng Pel opor Credi t Sui s s e Fi ne Ca pi ta l
2015/12A 2016/12A 17.5x 23.9x 1.7x 1.4x 3.0x 3.1x -560.6x -72.7x 11.0x 14.1x 13.5x 19.3x 29,331 28,907 18.5% -10.3% -3.1% -32.9% 83 56 83 56 841 927 484 437 (8) (6)
Pri ce /Ea rni ngs Pri ce /Book Va l ue Pri ce/Sa l es PE/EPS Growth EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT EV (IDR bn) Sa l es Growth EPS Growth Ba s i c EPS (IDR) Di l uted EPS (IDR) BVPS (IDR) Sa l es PS (IDR) DPS (IDR)
2017/12E 20.7x 1.4x 2.9x 116.5x 10.9x 15.1x 25,542 7.1% 17.7% 55 55 820 389 (6)
2018/12E 16.3x 1.3x 2.5x 60.1x 8.8x 11.5x 25,457 14.4% 27.1% 70 70 881 446 (7)
2017/12E
2018/12E
DCF, RIM & EVA 2018/12E 1,289 307 628 2,223 (1,900) (134) (2,034) (103) 606 503 691
OWNERSHIP By Geography Indones i a Ja pa n Uni ted Sta tes
2016/12A 6.3% 3.1% 9.0% 15.0% 7.4% 93 0.4% 10.7% 47% 81% 35% 32% 49% 23% 202% 188% 60% 47% 448 100 15.4 1,335 20,593
VALUATION INDEX
CASH FLOW STATEMENT in IDR bn Net Income Deprec & Amorti za ti on Oth Non-Ca s h Adj CFO Ca pex Oth Inv. Act CFI Di vi dends Pa i d Net Borrowi ng (PMT) CFF Net Changes in Cash
2015/12A 10.4% 5.2% 13.2% 21.5% 10.7% 123 0.5% 9.5% 40% 70% 30% 29% 50% 20% 202% 150% 49% 38% 340 100 15.5 1,446 22,443
ROE ROA ROIC EBITDA/Equi ty EBITDA/As s ets Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn) Di vi dend Yi el d (%) Pa yout Ra ti o (%) DER Net Gea ri ng LT Debt to Equi ty Ca pi ta l i za ti on Ra ti o Equi ty Ra ti o Debt Ra ti o Fi na nci a l Levera ge Current Ra ti o Qui ck Ra ti o Ca s h Ra ti o
% 25.5 5.9 5.3
DCF (IDR bn) NOPAT +Depr./Amor. -CAPEX -Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p. (Unl evered) FCFF WACC Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.) Cos t of Equi ty (COE) WACC (%) RIM Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%) Res i dua l Income (IDR bn) Equi ty Cha rge EVA Inves ted Ca pi ta l (USD bn) ROIC-WACC (%) EVA (IDR bn)
2015/12A
2016/12A
2,251 241 (1,543) (177) 772
1,773 207 (699) (1,059) 222
1,751 235 (1,797) 719 908
2,218 307 (1,900) 628 1,253
11.3% 11.5% 11.5%
9.5% 10.5% 10.5%
8.2% 12.3% 12.3%
10.7% 11.4% 11.4%
-0.5% (56) 1,340
-3.9% (513) 1,374
-5.2% (744) 1,759
-2.9% (447) 1,736
15,673 2.9% 450
18,328 -0.9% (157)
20,960 -3.9% (826)
21,634 -1.2% (254)
DISCLAIMER
This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information here is obtained from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees, and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia
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