August 23, 2017
Embun Pagi Mimi Halimin
+62-21-515-1140
[email protected]
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Winning back purchasing power
Market Index Last Trade JCI
HANG SENG
MoM
YoY
5,880.3
0.3
1.7
MSCI Indonesia MSCI EM
Chg (%)
8.2
27.2
0.6
1.8
3.6
1,072.5
0.8
0.3
17.3
27,401.7
0.9
1.7
18.1
KOSPI
2,365.3
0.3
-3.5
15.4
FTSE
7,381.7
0.9
-1.8
6.6
DJIA
21,899.9
0.9
0.6
17.0
6,297.5
1.4
-2.7
18.1
NASDAQ Valuation 2017F JCI
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
16.8
ROE (%)
2.6
18.8
Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps)
MoM
YoY
BI 7-Day RR
4.50
-25
0
-75
3yr
6.56
-2
-18
-22
10yr
6.88
-2
-5
-24
FX Last Trade USD/IDR USD/KRW USD/JPY
Chg (%)
MoM
YoY
13,344.00
-0.1
0.3
0.9
1,133.80
-0.5
1.8
1.6
109.57
0.5
-1.4
9.3
6.66
-0.1
-1.3
0.2
USD/CNY
Pertumbuhan konsumsi swasta di 2Q17 mencapai 4.95% YoY, di bawah pertumbuhan PDB 2Q17 (5.01% YoY). Dari indikator makro, kami melihat bahwa meskipun Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen (IKK) di tingkat optimis, konsumen masih concern dengan kondisi ekonomi saat ini, terutama mengenai ketersediaan lapangan kerja. Setelah mengalami penurunan MoM di bulan Juni, CCI mengalami rebound pada bulan Juli, didukung oleh indeks ekspektasi konsumen (meskipun indeks kondisi ekonomi saat ini masih menurun). Indeks ketersediaan lapangan kerja dalam komponen kondisi ekonomi saat ini berada di bawah 100, menunjukkan pesimisme konsumen. Menurut kami, concern tersebut cukup beralasan mengingat industri padat karya, seperti industri semen dan rokok menghadapi kesulitan karena perlambatan permintaan. Namun, industri manufaktur mulai menunjukkan indikasi positif adanya peningkatan aktivitas. Nilai impor pada bulan Juli naik 39.0% MoM, didukung oleh kenaikan MoM bahan baku/ penolong (40.79% MoM) dan barang modal (62.57% MoM) yang signifikan, indikasi positif bagi Industri manufaktur, menurut pandangan kami. Selanjutnya, seiring dengan meningkatnya realisasi investasi pada 2Q17, penyerapan tenaga kerja juga meningkat di kuartal tersebut. Indikasi ini seharusnya dapat menenangkan kekhawatiran konsumen terhadap ketersediaan lapangan kerja. Selain itu, menurut RAPBN 2018, pemerintah mengusulkan kenaikan anggaran yang signifikan untuk Kementerian Sosial dari IDR17.2tr pada outlook 2017 menjadi IDR34.0tr dalam RAPBN 2018. Selain itu, pemerintah juga mengalokasikan subsidi yang lebih tinggi dalam RAPBN 2018, dengan total alokasi subsidi sebesar IDR172.4tr (terdiri dari subsidi energi IDR103.4tr dan subsidi non energi sebesar IDR69.0tr). Kami percaya pemerintah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan dan memulihkan daya beli tahun depan. Secara keseluruhan, kami tetap optimis terhadap perekonomian Indonesia.
Commodities Last Trade
Chg (%)
MoM
YoY
WTI
47.8
0.6
4.1
Gold
1,285.1
-0.5
2.4
-3.9
Coal
98.4
0.1
13.8
44.4
2,729.0
-1.0
1.4
-6.1
139.7
0.0
2.0
7.1
Palm Oil Rubber
-9.0
Nickel
11,315.0
3.1
18.9
10.2
Copper
6,580.0
-0.1
9.6
39.7
20,350.0
-0.7
1.4
10.6
Tin
JCI
Consumer confidence index
(CCI, pt)
Current economic condition index
MSCI EM
5,500
130.0
120.0
OPTIMIST LEVEL
(pt)
100.0
1,100
90.0
950
80.0
PESIMIST LEVEL
JanFebMar AprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar AprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar AprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar AprMayJun Jul
4,500
800
2014
2015
Source: BI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
3,500 07/13
Expectation index
140.0
110.0
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt)
Consumer confidence index
07/14
07/15
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
07/16
650 07/17
2016
2017
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia cartoon
2 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Local flashes KLBF: KLBF rencana mulai ekspor alkes di tahun depan. Kontribusi bisnis alat kesehatan bagi kinerja PT Kalbe Farma hingga saat ini masih relatif kecil yaitu 5%-7% terhadap total penjualan PT Kalbe Farma. penjualan alat kesehatan ke pasar internasional akan dimulai tahun depan. Target yang akan disasar pertama adalah negara-negara di wilayah ASEAN. Ekspansi penjualan ke luar negeri ini akan dilakukan secara bertahap. (Kontan) SUPR: Dua emiten menara tertarik beli SUPR. Beredar kabar bahwa PT Solusi Tunas Pratama Tbk (SUPR) dan PT Komet Infra Nusantara bakal menjual bisnis utama perusahaan tersebut, yakni menara telekomunikasi. Kabarnya, sudah ada beberapa pihak yang berdiskusi terkait kemungkinan merger atau akuisisi terhadap perusahaan tersebut. Hingga kini, manajemen perusahaan tersebut belum bersedia memberikan jawaban. Namun ada beberapa perusahaan yang menunjukkan ketertarikan memiliki SUPR. (Kontan) BYAN: Tambang Bayan Resources tak lagi tumpang tindih. Berita baik bagi anak usaha PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN). Anak usaha BYAN PT Orkida Makmur akhirya mengantongi putusan atas perkara tumpang tindih wilayah usaha pertambangan di Kutai Kertanegara, Kalimantan Timur. Pengadilan Tinggi Tata Usaha Negara (PTTUN) Jakarta memutuskan permohonan banding tergugat yakni Kepala Badan Perizinan dan Penanaman Modal Daerah Pemerintah provinsi Kalimantan Timur) dan tergugat II yakni PT Orkida Makmur. Selain itu, keputusan PTTUN Jakarta No.157/B/2017/PTTUN.JKT itu juga membatalkan putusan Pengadilan Tata Usaha Negara (PTUN) Samarinda No. 26/G/2016/PTUN.SMD yang dimohon oleh Penggugat yakni PT Senyiur Sukses Pratama. Lewat pengumuman resmi di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), Direktur Utama Bayan Resources Tbk Chin Wai Fong mengungkapkan “Dengan begitu wilayah tambang PT Orkinda Makmur tidak lagi tumpang tindih dengan wilayah tambang penggugat,” katanya dalam keterbukaan informasi, Selasa (22/8). (Kontan) WSBP: Harga saham rendah, WSBP bisa segera buyback. PT Waskita Beton Precast Tbk (WSBP) menyiapkan aksi korporasi pembelian kembali saham. Pemegang saham WSBP telah menyetujui aksi korporasi ini pada rapat umum pemegang saham 26 Juli lalu. WSBP akan membeli kembali sekitar 7% dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh atau setara 1,84 miliar saham. Anak usaha PT Waskita Karya Tbk (WSKT) ini menyiapkan dana sekitar Rp 1 triliun. (Kontan) DILD: Intiland berencana naikkan target marketing sales. PT Intiland Development Tbk (DILD) akan segera merilis proyek barunya berupa mixed use development bertajuk 57 Promenade di Jantung kawasan Kebon Kacang, Jakarta. Tahap pertama, Intiland akan merilis dua tower apartemen sekaligus di lahan dengan total unit 496 unit pada 26 Agustus 2017 mendatang. Apartemen ini akan dilepas menyasar segmen atas dengan harga sekitar Rp 50 juta-Rp 55 juta per meter. BBTN: Bujet subsidi rumah naik, BTN yakin kredit melesat. Pemerintah kabarnya akan menaikkan anggaran subsidi rumah hingga sebesar 25% pada tahun 2018 mendatang. Jika teralisasi, artinya bank penyalur kredit perumahan rakyat (KPR) bersubsidi akan memupuk lebih besar pembiayaan perumahan. (Kontan) KRAS: KRAS ikuti permintaan pemerintah. Pemerintah menargetkan setoran dividen emiten Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) total Rp 43,69 triliun tahun depan. Target setoran ini naik 9,22% jika dibandingkan target setoran tahun ini Rp 40 triliun. Sama seperti PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) dan PT PP Tbk (PTPP), PT Krakatau Steel Tbk (KRAS) juga menyatakan bahwa pihaknya akan tunduk dengan keputusan pemerintah terkait dengan besaran dividen tahun buku 2017 yang akan dibagikan tahun depan. (Kontan)
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
3
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Technical analysis Tasrul
+62-21-515-1140
[email protected]
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) – Test Resistance at 5,904 IHSG akan coba naik mendekati center line pada uptrend channel. IHSG saat masih dalam pola uptrend jangka pendek relatif valid yang dimulai sejak 183 hari terakhir dengan r-squared = 0.9357 dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.85 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang IHSG bergerak di luar pergerakan normal sekitar 6.43% atau sekitar 12 bar chart. Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan IHSG saat ini sebesar antara +0.4 % / - 0.37 % atau +23.52 point / -21.76 point (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif selama periode analisis) sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 1.
Summary Item
Data
Close (Aug 22, 2017)
Item
Data
5,880 (+0.3%)Trading range
Average index performance (%)
5,858 – 5,904
7.65Target
Period
183 - Daily 0.9357 - Weekly
r-squared Volatility (+/-, %)
+0.4 / -0.37
Volatility (+/-, point)
5,904 5,943
- Monthly
5,946
+23.52 / -21.76Stop loss
5,854
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 1. Daily trend - Uptrend ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 8/22/2017 Open: 5,863 High: 5,886 Low: 5,863 Close: 5,880 Chg. 0.3% Prev. Avg. Price: 5,876.2 Volatility (+) : 0.0040 Volatility (-) : -0.0037 V-Ratio : 1.08
6,035.42
_____ 5,899.5 _____ 5,854.5
5,922.3 5,880.3 5,829.57 5,821.25 5,809.19
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 ^JKSE - Volume = 6,180,405,248.00, Avg.Volume = 5,625,692,672.00
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Dec
2017
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
6,180,405,248 5,625,692,672
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
4 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana keluar mulai tertahan dan volatilitas pergerakkan indeks naik mulai terlihat. Pada Figure 2, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir pada periode daily terlihat indikator MFI optimized akan menguji support trendline ,indikator W%R optimized dan indikator RSI optimized masih cenderung naik. Pada Bollinger Band optimized harga akan coba tembus BBTop. Sementara itu pada Figure 3 pada periode weekly kenaikkan indeks ini mulai tertahan Kenaikkan indikator MFI optimized, dan W%R optimized masih terlihat.Daily resistance di 5,904 dan daily support di 5,858. Cut loss level di 5,854. Figure 2. Daily MFI optimized ,W%R optimized,RSI optimized & Bollinger Band optimized ^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 60.12 60.1193
^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = -21.62 -21.6164
^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = 62.64 62.6369
^JKSE - Daily 8/22/2017 Open 5862.59, Hi 5885.6, Lo 5862.59, Close 5880.3 (0.3%) SMA Typical Price(Average,36) = 5,820.97, BBTop(Average,36,1.85) = 5,879.39, BBBot(Average,36,1.85) = 5,762.56 5,880.3 5,820.97
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 8/22/2017 Open: 5,863 High: 5,886 Low: 5,863 Close: 5,880 Chg. 0.3% Prev. Avg. Price: 5,876.2 Volatility (+) : 0.0040 Volatility (-) : -0.0037 V-Ratio : 1.08
_____ 5,899.5 _____ 5,854.5
5,880.3 5,821.25
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 ^JKSE - Volume = 6,180,405,248.00, Avg.Volume = 5,625,692,672.00
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 10 17 25 May 8
6,180,405,248 5,625,692,672 15
22
29
Jun
12
19
Jul
10
17
24
31Aug
7
14
21
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
5
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Figure 3. Weekly Trend – Uptrend, MFI optimized,W%R optimized & Bollinger Band optimized ^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 78.60 78.6049
^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = -26.36 -26.3559
^JKSE - Weekly 8/22/2017 Open 5893.42, Hi 5901.58, Lo 5855.24, Close 5880.3 (-0.2%) SMA Typical Price(Average,20) = 5,749.44, BBTop(Average,20,1.71) = 5,874.84, BBBot(Average,20,1.71) = 5,624.05 5,880.3 5,749.44
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 8/22/2017 Open: 5,893 High: 5,902 Low: 5,855 Close: 5,880 Chg. -0.2% Prev. Avg. Price: 5,879.0 Volatility (+) : 0.0108 Volatility (-) : -0.0074 V-Ratio : 1.47
6,025.01 5,921.24 5,880.3 5,817.46
_____ 5,942.6 _____ 5,835.7
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 ^JKSE - Volume = 12,213,716,992.00, Avg.Volume = 23,130,296,320.00
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Jun Jul Aug Sep
23,130,296,320 12,213,716,992 Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
22Jul
Aug
22
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Level konfirm koreksi lebih lanjut jika indeks ini tidak mampu bertahan diatas level 5,891. Terlihat pada pergerakkan daily, rata-rata kenaikkan normal selama periode analisis adalah sekitar +0.4%, sementara saat ini di level +0.3%. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly potensi koreksi normal rata-rata sekitar -0.074%, saat ini di level -0.2%. Dengan demikian potensi koreksi sudah tertahan. Pada Figure 4,5 dan 6 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 4. Daily : 5,859 – 5,904
Figure 5. Weekly : 5,836 – 5,943
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 8/22/2017 Open: 5,863 High: 5,886 Prev. Avg. Price: 5,876.2 Volatility (+) : 0.0040 Volatility (-) : -0.0037 V-Ratio : 1.08
Figure 6. Monthly : 5,708 – 5,946
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 8/22/2017 Open: 5,893 High: Prev. Avg. Price: 5,879.0 Volatility (+) : 0.0108 Volatility (-) : -0.0074 V-Ratio : 1.47
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Monthly - 8/22/2017 Open: 5,854 High: Prev. Avg. Price: 5,847.2 Volatility (+) : 0.0406 Volatility (-) : -0.0408 V-Ratio : 0.99 _____ 6,084.7
x
5,903.8
x
_____ 5,942.6
_____ 5,899.5
5,946.0 5,880.3
5,891.7
5,880.3
5,879.0
5,847.2 5,880.3 5,707.8
_____ 5,854.5
_____ 5,608.4
_____ 5,835.7
5,858.5
^JKSE - Volume = 6,180,405,248.00
^JKSE - Volume = 12,213,716,992.00
^JKSE - Volume = 83,306,430,464.00
6,180,405,248
31Aug
7
14
21
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
13
May
Jun 22Jul
Aug
12,213,716,992
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
83,306,430,464 Apr
Jul
Oct
2017
Jul
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
6 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Stocks on our focus list Bank Mandiri (BMRI)-Daily, Trading Buy Harga akan coba naik mendekati center line pada uptrend channel. Secara umum harga saham ini masih bergerak pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.882) selama 119 hari terakhir yang bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.56 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekita 11.77 % (sekitar 14 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saat ini sebesar antara +1.03% / - 0.96 % atau +136.48 rupiah / -127.20 rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif, selama periode analisis) sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 7.
Summary Item
Data
Close (Aug 22, 2017) Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%)
Item
Data
13,250 (+0.4%)Trading range 12.40Target
β (beta)
13,250 – 13,400
1.51 - Daily 0.93 - Weekly
13,400
Corelation Period
119 - Monthly
13,900
r-squared
13,525
0.882Stop loss
Volatility (+/-, %)
13,125
+1.03 / -0.96
Volatility (+/-, Rp.)
+136.48/ -127.20
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 7. Daily trend – Uptrend Bank Mandiri (Pe [ BMRI.JK ] - Daily - 8/22/2017 Open: 13,300 High: 13,300 Low: 13,250 Close: 13,250 Chg. 0.4% Prev. Avg. Price: 13,266.7 Volatility (+) : 0.0103 Volatility (-) : -0.0096 V-Ratio : 1.07
14,150.2 13,970.4 13,553.6 13,553.6 _____ 13,402.7 _____ 13,139.8
13,250 13,227.8 13,136.8 13,092.9 12,957
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 BMRI.JK - Volume = 9,270,100.00, Avg.Volume = 16,610,867.00
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Feb Mar
16,610,867 9,270,100 Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
7
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat. Pada Figure 8, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir, indikator MFI optimized, ,indikator W%R optimized dan indikator W%R optimized cenderung naik. Sementara itu ruang kenaikkan harga pada indikator Bollinger Band optimized juga masih terbuka. Daily resistance terdekat di 13,400 sebelum ke weekly resistance di 13,525. Daily support di 13,125 dan weekly support di 12,950.Cut loss level di 13,125.
Figure 8. Daily, MFI optimized, W%R optimized & Bollinger Band optimized BMRI.JK - MFI Smoothed = 67.63 67.6324
BMRI.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -35.71 -35.7096
BMRI.JK - RSI Smoothed = 54.43
54.4275
BMRI.JK - Daily 8/22/2017 Open 13300, Hi 13300, Lo 13250, Close 13250 (0.4%) BBTop(Average,16,1.56) = 13,467.76, BBBot(Average,16,1.56) = 13,100.99, SMA Typical Price(Average,16) = 13,284.38 13,284.4 13,250
Bank Mandiri (Pe [ BMRI.JK ] - Daily - 8/22/2017 Open: 13,300 High: 13,300 Low: 13,250 Close: 13,250 Chg. 0.4% Prev. Avg. Price: 13,266.7 Volatility (+) : 0.0103 Volatility (-) : -0.0096 V-Ratio : 1.07
_____ 13,402.7 _____ 13,139.8
13,269.3 13,250
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 BMRI.JK - Volume = 9,270,100.00, Avg.Volume = 16,610,867.00
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 20 27 Apr 10 17
16,610,867 9,270,100 25
May
8
15
22
29
Jun
12
19
Jul
10
17
24
31Aug
7
14
21
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
8 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area). Pada pergerakkan daily harga terakhir saat ini naik +0.4 % sementara itu kenaikkan normal rata-rata di level +1.03%. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly harga telah naik sekitar +1.1%. Normal kenaikkan sekitar +2.55%. Dengan demikian potensi koreksi masih terlihat.Pada Figure 9,10 dan 11 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 9. Daily : 13,125 – 13,400
Figure 10. Weekly : 12,950 – 13,525
Bank Mandiri (Pe [ BMRI.JK ] - Daily - 8/22/2017 Open: Prev. Avg. Price: 13,266.7 Volatility (+) : 0.0103 Volatility (-) : -0.0096 V-Ratio : 1.07
Bank Mandiri (Pe [ BMRI.JK ] - Weekly - 8/22/2017 Open: Prev. Avg. Price: 13,200.0 Volatility (+) : 0.0255 Volatility (-) : -0.0191 V-Ratio : 1.33
Figure 11. Monthly : 12,800 – 13,900 Bank Mandiri (Pe [ BMRI.JK ] - Monthly - 8/22/2017 Open: Prev. Avg. Price: 13,325.0 Volatility (+) : 0.0860 Volatility (-) : -0.0770 _____ 14,470.4 V-Ratio : 1.12
13,897.7
_____ 13,402.7
_____ 13,536.2
13,386.5
13,325.0 13,250 13,266.7 13,266.7
13,250
13,250
12,812.0 _____ 12,298.9
_____ 12,947.8
_____ 13,139.8 13,122.8
BMRI.JK - Volume = 9,270,100.00
BMRI.JK - Volume = 23,453,300.00
9,270,100 31Aug
7
14
21
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
13
May
Jun 22Jul
Aug
BMRI.JK - Volume = 241,993,920.00
23,453,300
Created w ith A miBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Apr
Jul
Oct
2017
Jul
241,993,920
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
9
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
United Tractors (UNTR)-Daily,Trading Buy Harga akan coba bertahan diatas normal lower band pada uptrend channel. Secara umum harga saham ini juga masih bergerak dalam pola uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.831) selama 65 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.37 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 16.93 % (sekitar 11 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saat ini sebesar antara +1.16 % / -1.56 % atau + 342.78 rupiah / 460.98 rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif, selama periode analisis) sebagaimana sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 12.
Summary Item
Data
Item
Close (Aug. 22, 2017)
Data 29,400
Trading range 29,550 (+2.2%)
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%)
17.75Target 2.12 - Daily
β (beta) Corelation
29,850
0.89 - Weekly 65 - Monthly
Period r-squared
30,450 31,875
0.831Stop loss
Volatility (+/-, %)
–
30,450
28,950
+1.16 / -1.56
Volatility (+/-, Rp.)
+342.78/ - 460.98
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 12. Daily trend – Uptrend United Tractors Tbk [ UNTR.JK ] - Daily - 8/22/2017 Open: 29,050 High: 29,600 Low: 29,050 Close: 29,550 Chg. 2.2% Prev. Avg. Price: 29,400.0 Volatility (+) : 0.0116 Volatility (-) : -0.0156 V-Ratio : 0.74
32,456.3 31,615.2 30,533.5 30,533.5 _____ 29,739.8 _____ 28,941.8
29,675.9 29,550 29,451.7 28,610.6 28,510
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 UNTR.JK - Volume = 3,101,100.00, Avg.Volume = 2,384,713.25
3,101,100 2,384,713 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 20 27 Apr 10 17
25
May
8
15
22
29
Jun
12
19
Jul
10
17
24
31Aug
7
14
21
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
10 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat. Pada Figure 13, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi indikator MFI optimized dan RSI optimized cenderung naik. Ruang kenaikkan harga pada indikator Bollinger Band optimized masih terlihat masih cenderung naik jika tembus center line. Weekly resistance di 30,450 dengan catatan daily resistance dapat ditembus di 29,850. Sementara itu weekly support di 29,300 dengan catatan daily support di 29,400. juga dapat ditembus.Cut loss level di 28,950. Figure 13. Daily, MFI optimized , RSI optimized & Bollinger Band optimized UNTR.JK - MFI Smoothed = 28.02
28.0154 UNTR.JK - RSI Smoothed = 45.06 45.0557
UNTR.JK - Daily 8/22/2017 Open 29050, Hi 29600, Lo 29050, Close 29550 (2.2%) BBTop(Average,15,1.37) = 30,267.74, BBBot(Average,15,1.37) = 29,026.71, SMA Typical Price(Average,15) = 29,647.22
29,647.2 29,550
United Tractors Tbk [ UNTR.JK ] - Daily - 8/22/2017 Open: 29,050 High: 29,600 Low: 29,050 Close: 29,550 Chg. 2.2% Prev. Avg. Price: 29,400.0 Volatility (+) : 0.0119 Volatility (-) : -0.0152 V-Ratio : 0.78
_____ 29,749.9 _____ 28,953.0
29,550
UNTR.JK - Volume = 3,101,100.00, Avg.Volume = 2,384,713.25
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 27 Mar 6 13 20 27 Apr
3,101,100 2,384,713 10
17
25
May 8
15
22
29 Jun
12
19
Jul
10
17
24
31Aug
14
21
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Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
11
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Harga saat ini akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode. Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Jika dilihat lebih lanjut kenaikkan normal pada pergerakkan daily sekitar +1.01%, saat ini di level +2.2%. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly kenaikkan normal sekitar +3.85 %, saat ini sekitar +0.3 %. Dengan demikian potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Pada Figure 14,15 dan 16 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 14. Daily : 29,400 – 29,850
Figure 15. Weekly : 29,300 – 30,450 United Tractors Tbk [ UNTR.JK ] - Weekly - 8/22/2017 Open: Prev. Avg. Price: 29,316.7 Volatility (+) : 0.0385 Volatility (-) : -0.0335 V-Ratio : 1.15
United Tractors Tbk [ UNTR.JK ] - Daily - 8/22/2017 Open: Prev. Avg. Price: 29,400.0 Volatility (+) : 0.0101 Volatility (-) : -0.0144 V-Ratio : 0.70
Figure 16. Monthly : 28,300 – 31,875 United Tractors Tbk [ UNTR.JK ] - Monthly - 8/22/2017 Prev. Avg. Price: 29,650.0 Volatility (+) : 0.1500 Volatility (-) : -0.0919 V-Ratio : 1.63
x
_____ 34,098.3
_____ 30,445.6
31,874.2
29,550
29,848.5
29,317.7
_____ 29,697.3
29,650
_____ 28,336.0
29,550
_____ 28,975.6
29,550
28,287
29,400
_____ 26,924.1
29,124.5
UNTR.JK - Volume = 5,436,700.00
UNTR.JK - Volume = 3,101,100.00
UNTR.JK - Volume = 35,770,700.00
3,101,100
31Aug
7
14
21
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
13
May
Jun 22Jul
Aug
5,436,700
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Apr
Jul
Oct
2017
Jul
35,770,700
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Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
12 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Astra Intenational (ASII) -Weekly, Trading Buy Harga akan coba naik mendekati normal lower band pada uptrend channel. Secara umum harga saham ini akan coba naik mendekati normal lower band pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid dengan r-squared = 0.777 selama 105 minggu terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.22 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normalnya sekitar 22.27 % (sekitar23 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saat ini sebesar antara +3.33 % / - 3.39 % atau +263.90 rupiah / -268.66 rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif, selama periode analisis) sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 17.
Summary Item
Data
Close (Aug 22, 2017) Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%)
Item
Data
7,925 (+0.3%) Normal trading range (5.63) Target
7,875 – 8,150
β (beta)
1.87 - Daily
8,000
Corelation
0.33 - Weekly 105 - Monthly
8,150
Period r-squared
8,250
0.777Stop loss
Volatility (+/-, %)
7,650
+3.33/ -3.39
Volatility (+/-, Rp.)
+263.90 / -268.66
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 17. Weekly Trend – Uptrend Astra Internatio [ ASII.JK ] - Weekly - 8/22/2017 Open: 7,900 High: 7,950 Low: 7,775 Close: 7,925 Chg. 0.3% Prev. Avg. Price: 7,883.3 Volatility (+) : 0.0330 Volatility (-) : -0.0309 V-Ratio : 1.07
10,200.4
9,487.7 8,927.75 8,918.76
8,349.83 _____ 8,143.1
_____ 7,639.8
8,041.95 7,925 7,750.38 7,655.12
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 ASII.JK - Volume = 60,569,000.00, Avg.Volume = 195,971,408.00
195,971,408
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Jul Oct
60,569,000 2016
Apr
Jul
Oct
2017
Apr
Jul
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
13
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat. Pada Figure 18, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi, indikator MFI optimized , indikator W%R optimized dan indikator W%R optimized masih cenderung naik.Sementara itu ruang kenaikkan harga pada indikator Bollinger Band optimized terlihat masih cenderung naik Dengan demikian diperkirakan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Perkiraan daily resistance di 8,000 sebelum ke weekly resistance di 8,150. Daily support di 87,825 dan weekly support di 7,625.Cut loss level di 7,650.
Figure 18. Weekly MFI optimized , W%R optimized , RSI optimized & Bollinger Band optimized ASII.JK - MFI Smoothed = 51.55 51.5476
ASII.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -83.16
-83.1611 ASII.JK - RSI Smoothed = 52.85 52.8488
ASII.JK - Weekly 8/22/2017 Open 7900, Hi 7950, Lo 7775, Close 7925 (0.3%) BBTop(Average,35,1.22) = 8,867.70, BBBot(Average,35,1.22) = 7,878.49, SMA Typical Price(Average,35) = 8,373.09
8,373.09 7,925
Astra Internatio [ ASII.JK ] - Weekly - 8/22/2017 Open: 7,900 High: 7,950 Low: 7,775 Close: 7,925 Chg. 0.3% Prev. Avg. Price: 7,883.3 Volatility (+) : 0.0332 Volatility (-) : -0.0303 V-Ratio : 1.09
_____ 8,145.0 _____ 7,644.2
7,925
ASII.JK - Volume = 60,569,000.00, Avg.Volume = 195,971,408.00 300M 195,971,408 200M Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Apr Jul Oct
100M 60,569,000 2015
Apr
Jul
Oct
2016
Apr
Jul
Oct
2017
Apr
Jul
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
14 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode. Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Jika dilihat lebih lanjut kenaikkan normal pada pergerakkan daily sekitar +0.73 %, saat ini di level +0.6. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly kenaikkan normal sekitar +3.30 % saat ini di level 0.3%. Dengan demikan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Pada Figure 19,20 dan 21 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode. Figure 19. Daily : 7,825 – 8,000
Figure 20. Weekly : 7,625 – 8,150
Figure 21. Monthly : 7,700 – 8,250
Astra Internatio [ ASII.JK ] - Weekly - 8/22/2017 Open: Prev. Avg. Price: 7,883.3 Volatility (+) : 0.0330 Volatility (-) : -0.0309 V-Ratio : 1.07
Astra Internatio [ ASII.JK ] - Daily - 8/22/2017 Open: 7,825 Prev. Avg. Price: 7,900.0 Volatility (+) : 0.0073 Volatility (-) : -0.0111 V-Ratio : 0.66
Astra Internatio [ ASII.JK ] - Monthly - 8/22/2017 Open: Prev. Avg. Price: 7,858.3 Volatility (+) : 0.0999 Volatility (-) : -0.0742 V-Ratio : 1.35
_____ 8,643.2 7,982.9 8,250.8
_____ 7,957.8 7,925
7,858.3
7,900.0
7,925
7,688.5
_____ 8,143.1 _____ 7,275.5 _____ 7,812.2
7,883.3
7,837.0
7,925
_____ 7,639.8
ASII.JK - Volume = 60,569,000.00
ASII.JK - Volume = 21,229,100.00
ASII.JK - Volume = 656,904,256.00
656,904,256
31Aug
7
14
21
21,229,100
13
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Period r-squared Volatility (+/-%) Volatility (+/- point or Rp)
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Jun 22Jul
Aug
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) β (beta) Correlation
May
60,569,000
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Apr
Jul
Oct
2017
Jul
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Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
: Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG selama periode analisis. : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham. : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase. : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak dalam periode analisis.
15
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Chart 22. JCI Vs. USD/IDR (pt)
Chart 23. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
JCI (L)
(IDR)
USD/IDR (R)
6,000
(%, %p)
13,800
12
13,700
8
13,600
4
Absolute
Relative 8.5
5,900 5,800
1.4
0.3 13,500
0
13,400
-4
13,300
-8
13,200
-12
2.0 0.2
0.8
-0.5
5,700 5,600 5,500 5/23
6/20
7/18
8/15
-9.8 1D
1W
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 24. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM)
Chart 25. Energy price
(USDmn) 400 200 0
1 Day 282
125
25
0
-200
-175
-400
0 -114
5 Days
(D-3M=100) 145
13
135
-20 -39
CPO
1M
WTI
1Y
Coal
125 -279
-600
115 105
-800 -1,000
95
-1,200
85
-1,400
-1,391
-1,600 Korea
Taiwan Indonesia ThailandPhilippines India
Note: The latest figure for India are August 21st, 2017 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Copper
5/23
6/20
7/18
8/15
Gold
Platinum
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 26. Non-ferrous metal price (D-3M=100)
75
Chart 27. Precious metal price Nickel
Tin
125
(D-3M=100)
Silver
111
120 115
104
110 105 97
100 95
90
90 5/23
6/20
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
7/18
8/15
5/23
6/20
7/18
8/15
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
16 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Table. Key valuation metrics Price Company Name
Ticker
Jakarta Composite Index FINANCIALS Bank Central Asia Bank Mandiri Persero Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Bank Tabungan Negara Persero
JCI
CONSUMER HM Sampoerna Gudang Garam Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Indofood Sukses Makmur Kalbe Farma Unilever Indonesia AGRICULTURAL Astra Agro Lestari PP London Sumatera Indonesia Sawit Sumbermas Sarana INFRASTRUCTURE XL Axiata Jasa Marga Perusahaan Gas Negara Tower Bersama Infrastructure Telekomunikasi Indonesia Soechi Lines Garuda Indonesia BASIC-INDUSTRIES Semen Indonesia Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Japfa Comfeed Indonesia MINING Indo Tambangraya Megah Adaro Energy Aneka Tambang Vale Indonesia Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam TRADE United Tractors AKR Corporindo Global Mediacom Matahari Department Store Media Nusantara Citra Matahari Putra Prima Surya Citra Media Siloam International Hospital PROPERTY Bumi Serpong Damai Adhi Karya Alam Sutera Realty Ciputra Development Lippo Karawaci Pembangunan Perumahan Pakuwon Jati Summarecon Agung Wijaya Karya Waskita Karya MISCELLANEOUS Astra International
Market Cap
Price Performance (%)
P/E(X)*
P/B(X)*
ROE(%)*
(IDR)
(IDRbn)
1D
1W
1M
1Y
FY16
FY17
FY16
FY17
FY16
FY17
5,880
6,446,276
0.3
1.4
2.0
8.3
16.8
14.7
2.6
0.0
18.8
10.5
BBCA BMRI BBRI BBNI BBTN
18,800 13,250 15,300 7,400 2,900
463,514 309,167 377,438 138,000 30,711
0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.5
0.3 0.0 1.5 1.4 5.8
3.2 1.5 4.3 6.5 20.3
22.9 16.2 29.1 28.1 49.9
18.5 19.6 10.9 9.1 13.3
20.2 15.5 13.3 10.5 13.5
3.4 1.8 1.9 1.2 1.0
3.6 1.9 2.3 1.4 1.4
20.4 10.3 20.2 13.9 7.6
18.8 12.5 18.2 14.4 10.6
HMSP GGRM ICBP INDF KLBF UNVR
3,610 70,500 8,725 8,325 1,775 49,275
419,908 135,648 101,750 73,097 83,203 375,968
0.6 -2.5 0.6 0.3 0.9 2.0
6.8 5.5 4.5 0.9 2.9 2.1
-2.7 -6.9 2.9 -2.9 5.7 3.2
-10.2 5.0 -5.7 5.0 3.2 8.7
34.8 18.4 27.8 18.3 30.9 46.3
31.5 18.5 26.1 16.5 33.0 51.2
13.0 3.1 5.7 2.4 6.0 62.9
11.8 3.1 5.2 2.3 6.2 67.7
38.6 17.3 21.8 14.7 20.6 134.1
38.0 17.6 21.0 14.6 19.7 142.3
AALI LSIP SSMS
15,225 1,385 1,485
29,303 9,450 14,145
3.7 0.4 -2.9
1.5 0.0 -1.0
-1.5 -3.8 -5.1
-10.4 -16.1 -11.6
14.8 20.0 22.5
13.7 12.2 22.3
1.9 1.6 3.9
1.6 1.2 3.6
14.1 7.9 18.3
11.7 9.8 16.2
EXCL JSMR PGAS TBIG TLKM SOCI GIAA
3,420 5,450 2,160 6,675 4,790 278 334
36,553 39,555 52,362 30,247 482,832 1,962 8,646
1.2 0.0 -1.8 0.0 0.4 -1.4 -1.8
0.6 0.0 1.9 0.4 1.7 -0.7 -2.3
8.6 3.3 -2.3 2.3 5.0 -5.4 -5.1
-8.6 8.2 -31.9 11.7 15.7 -34.4 -27.4
60.8 15.6 15.3 17.4 20.3 8.2 31.7
113.0 19.1 10.8 24.2 20.4 4.2 18.1
1.2 2.3 1.5 14.3 4.7 0.6 2.6
1.7 2.5 1.2 13.0 5.0 N/A 2.4
2.1 15.7 9.8 83.6 24.3 7.4 8.6
1.4 13.6 11.6 62.5 25.6 10.1 12.6
SMGR CPIN INTP JPFA
10,850 2,820 19,800 1,165
64,357 46,242 72,888 13,293
0.0 -1.4 2.9 -1.7
-1.1 2.5 4.9 2.2
7.4 -10.5 13.8 -15.9
-2.7 -26.8 8.2 -27.6
12.0 22.6 14.6 7.7
19.2 16.7 25.5 8.3
1.9 3.6 2.2 1.9
2.1 2.9 2.7 1.4
16.3 16.5 15.5 28.6
10.7 18.5 10.2 17.0
ITMG ADRO ANTM INCO PTBA
20,025 1,860 725 2,990 13,100
22,627 59,494 17,422 29,710 30,184
0.0 -0.3 1.4 6.8 1.6
0.4 0.5 5.8 17.7 -0.9
-5.3 2.2 2.8 36.5 -0.4
74.9 66.8 -6.5 4.5 32.0
10.4 12.0 298.3 N/A 13.1
7.7 10.7 49.3 223.9 8.8
1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 2.5
1.7 1.3 1.1 1.2 2.2
15.0 11.1 0.4 0.1 20.5
21.8 11.9 0.6 0.4 27.7
UNTR AKRA BMTR LPPF MNCN MPPA SCMA SILO
29,550 6,625 494 10,550 1,480 730 2,300 11,075
110,225 26,501 7,014 30,784 21,129 3,926 33,630 14,404
2.2 1.1 -0.8 -0.5 1.0 -2.7 0.0 1.8
-1.2 -0.4 -0.8 -3.9 2.8 33.9 -2.5 6.7
2.5 5.2 -10.2 -13.2 -16.6 16.8 2.2 8.0
71.1 -1.1 -47.4 -48.3 -21.5 -64.6 -29.0 7.4
15.8 23.5 41.8 21.9 17.7 211.4 27.2 150.3
15.9 22.7 N/A 14.6 13.0 58.1 19.7 111.6
1.9 3.5 0.9 23.8 2.7 3.3 11.9 4.5
2.4 3.4 N/A 11.2 2.0 1.6 8.5 4.4
12.7 15.7 2.0 136.4 15.4 1.6 45.7 3.5
16.0 15.8 N/A 85.7 16.5 1.2 44.8 4.2
BSDE ADHI ASRI CTRA LPKR PTPP PWON SMRA WIKA WSKT
1,850 2,110 366 1,230 785 2,810 655 1,095 2,010 2,280
35,606 7,513 7,192 22,829 18,116 17,422 31,545 15,797 18,030 30,948
0.0 1.9 -1.1 -0.4 -0.6 -1.1 -2.2 -2.7 0.5 0.9
2.2 0.0 4.6 5.6 1.3 -5.4 1.6 2.8 -2.4 -3.0
6.3 -0.9 15.8 10.8 11.3 -8.5 6.5 1.9 1.0 2.7
-16.3 -24.6 -29.6 -25.2 -32.3 -35.6 0.0 -41.9 -33.0 -17.4
18.8 23.6 13.6 19.9 18.6 23.1 16.3 61.3 14.4 17.3
13.4 12.5 8.6 19.3 16.8 12.7 16.5 46.6 14.4 12.4
1.6 1.4 1.0 2.2 0.9 2.4 3.1 3.1 1.8 3.1
1.5 1.3 0.9 1.7 0.9 1.6 3.0 2.3 1.4 2.0
9.1 5.9 7.5 9.8 5.0 14.4 21.0 5.1 12.9 16.6
11.6 9.7 11.0 10.0 5.7 13.0 18.8 5.7 10.2 18.0
ASII
7,925
320,832
0.6
1.0
-3.4
-4.5
22.1
16.4
3.0
2.6
14.2
16.1
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
17
August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi
Top 10 market cap performance
Sector performance Name
Index
Chg (%)
Ticker
Price
Market Cap (IDRbn)
Chg (%)
Agricultural
1,750.6
0.8
BKSL IJ
144
7,957
10.77
Mining
1,519.2
0.8
INCO IJ
2990
29,710
6.79
611.2
0.8
DOID IJ
1025
8,719
4.59
Miscellaneous Industry
1,344.8
0.1
TINS IJ
885
6,591
4.12
Consumer Goods
2,469.7
0.4
INDY IJ
1030
5,366
4.0
508.3
-0.2
COWL IJ
1205
5,870
3.88
Basic-Industry
Property & Construction
1,245.2
0.4
AALI IJ
15225
29,303
3.75
Finance
Infrastructure
988.3
0.2
BRPT IJ
1980
27,640
3.66
Trade
919.8
0.3
INTP IJ
19800
72,888
2.9
5,880.3
0.3
GEMS IJ
2600
15,294
2.77
Composite Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers
Top 5 lagging movers
Name
Chg (%)
Close
Name
UNVR
IJ
2.0
49,275
GGRM
TAMU
IJ
24.9
4,070
MIKA
UNTR
IJ
2.3
29,550
MYOR
IJ
0.6
3,610
PGAS
2.9
19,800
TOWR
HMSP INTP
IJ
Chg (%) IJ
Close -2.5
IJ
70,500
-2.9
2,360
IJ
-2.3
1,895
IJ
-1.8
2,160
-2.0
4,500
IJ
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar Time 7:30am 23rd-24th 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 3:00pm 3:00pm Tentative 8:05pm 8:45pm 8:45pm 9:00pm 9:00pm 9:30pm
Currency JPY CNY EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR USD USD USD EUR USD USD
Detail Flash Manufacturing PMI Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y ECB President Draghi Speaks French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI German 10-y Bond Auction FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI Consumer Confidence New Home Sales Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast 52.3
Previous 52.1 -0.1%
54.6 55.8 57.8 53.3 56.3 55.4
54.9 56.0 58.1 53.1 56.6 55.4 0.49|1.5
53.3 54.9 -2 615K
53.3 54.7 -2 610K -8.9M
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory
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August 23, 2017 Embun Pagi This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. © PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 2016.
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