Company Update
Indosat Bloomberg: ISAT:IJ | Reuters: ISAT.JK
Samuel Equity Research
25 April 2017
Enjoying online transportation boon
BUY (Maintain) Target Price
Rp 8,200
Last Price
Rp 7,225
Potential Upside
13.5%
JCI Index
5,664
Share Issued (mn)
5,434
Market Cap. (Rp bn)
39,260
52-Weeks High/Low
7,150/ 5,150
Avg Daily Vol
294,062
Free Float
21%
Nominal Value EPS 2016
100 Rp 203
100% ISAT IJ Equity
60%
JCI Index
40% 20% 0% Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 -20%
Lompatan trafik data didukung oleh tambahan 30,6 juta pelanggan prabayar. Trafik data ISAT di FY16 melonjak sebesar 147% yoy, dimana kami sinyalir, salah satunya merupakan imbas dari maraknya pengguna ataupun driver transportasi online. Sejak kemunculan transportasi online di mid- 2014, pelanggan pra-bayar ISAT telah bertambah 30,6 juta (3Q14 – 4Q16). Penambahan ini lebih besar 34% dibanding periode 1Q10 – 2Q14. Kombinasi ARPU prabayar terjangkau dan promo data rollover, ... Promo data rollover (sisa kuota bisa digunakan di bulan berikutnya) serta dengan Average Revenue per User (ARPU) prabayar ISAT sebesar Rp 24 ribu, terendah dibanding peers (TLKM: Rp 42 ribu, EXCL: Rp 34 ribu), ISAT berpotensi memonetisasi pelanggan prabayar lebih banyak dibanding peers. … menjadi katalis penambahan pelanggan prabayar kedepannya. Masih berkembangnya transportasi online memberi potensi semakin besarnya penetrasi pengguna data (data user) di Indonesia. Secara konservatif, kami mengestimasikan pelanggan ISAT bertambah 7 juta menjadi sebesar 92 juta dimana sekitar 53% merupakan pengguna data.
Relative to JCI Chart 80%
Pertumbuhan pelanggan prabayar sebesar 30,6 juta sejak maraknya transportasi online di 3Q14 kami lihat menjadi katalis lompatan trafik data ISAT. Kombinasi ARPU terjangkau dan promo data rollover kami yakini menjadi ujung tombak ISAT memonetisasi pertumbuhan pelanggan prabayar. BUY dengan TP Rp 8.200, potensi upside +13%.
Sep-16 Feb-17
-40%
Company Background PT Indosat Ooredoo Tbk beroperasi di bidang telekomunikasi yang meliputi layanan telepon selular dan layanan data atau Multimedia, Internet & Data communication. Saat ini perseroan sedang mengkampanyekan REBORN sebagai brand identity terbaru.
Pendapatan data 2017 kami estimasi tumbuh 47% yoy. Kami mengestimasikan pendapatan data ISAT di 2017 dapat tumbuh 47% yoy ke Rp 15,2 triliun, seiring dengan asumsi kenaikan trafik data sebesar 20% serta berakhirnya perang tarif. Kami memakai asumsi tarif data 2017 sebesar Rp 1.000/MB/bulan/user, naik 18% yoy. Laba bersih kami prediksi tumbuh 79% yoy. Manajemen berencana memangkas porsi hutang US$. Kami proyeksikan laba bersih ISAT ‘17E dapat tumbuh 79% yoy ke Rp 1,9 triliun. Sementara rencana manajemen untuk mengecilkan porsi hutang US$ menjadi sebesar 5% (FY16: 12%), mengurangi resiko nilai tukar mata uang di 2017.
Republik Indonesia
14.0%
Mempertahankan BUY dan merevisi TP Rp 8.200. Positioning tepat menyasar pengguna prabayar, menjadi katalis revisi TP kami menjadi Rp 8.200 (sebelumnya Rp 7.200), TP ini merefleksikan potensi upside sebesar 13%. BUY. Resiko investasi: perang tarif yang menyasar pasar prabayar.
Ooredoo Asia
65.0%
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp7,225 per share)
Public
21.0%
Shareholder Structure
Arandi Ariantara +62 21 2854 8148
[email protected]
www.samuel.co.id
Y/E Dec (Rp Bn) Operating Revenue EBIT EBITDA Net Profit EPS (Rp) BVPS (Rp) DPS (Rp) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x) Net Gearing (x)
15A 26,769 2,362 11,131 (1,310) (241) 2,297 5.2 (30) 3.1 1.5
16A 29,185 3,941 12,913 1,105 203 2,457 4.4 36 2.9 1.3
17E 32,581 4,603 14,456 1,978 364 2,719 102 3.6 20 2.7 0.8
18E 35,355 5,250 15,619 2,760 508 3,045 182 3.0 14 2.4 0.5
Indosat ISAT:IJ | ISAT.JK
Figure 1. Aplikasi transportasi online
(Sumber: SSI Research)
Figure 2. Akumulasi pelanggan prabayar dan trafik data
(juta pelanggan) 12.0 10.0
(Tb) 220,000
10.7 1 April 2016: Terbitnya Permen Perhubungan No. 32/2016
9.0
8.0
188,101 170,000 146,060 120,000
6.0
2.0 (2.0)
93,641
3.3
4.0
20,911 3Q14 (0.7)
2.0 55,871 57,276 63,987 39,880 46,0270.5 0.8 29,891 -
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15 Net Additions
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3.9 70,000
1.1
20,000 3Q16
4Q16
(30,000)
Data usage
(Sumber: Perseroan, SSI Research)
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Indosat ISAT:IJ | ISAT.JK
Figure 3. Data rollover promo
Source: SSI research
Figure 4. ARPU Prepaid vs peers
Sumber: Perseroan, SSI Research
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Indosat ISAT:IJ | ISAT.JK
Figure 5. Pendapatan dan pelanggan, 2015 – 2018E (Rp triliun)
(juta)
40
110 35.4
35 30
99.1
32.6
84.7
26.8
25
90
91.9
29.2
100
80 70
69.0
20
60 2015
2016
Pendapatan
2017E
2018E
Pelanggan
Source: Company, SSI research
Figure 6. Laba bersih, 2015 – 2018E (Rp triliun)
2.8
3.0 2.5
2.0
2.0 1.5
1.1
1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
-1.0 -1.5
-1.3
-2.0 Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 7. Perbandingan 2G/3G coverage operator telco Total frekuensi Wilayah populasi Coverage 2G Coverage 2G Coverage 3G Coverage Operator (MHz) (km2) (km2) (%) (km2) (%) TLKM 110,512 1,121,226 1,008,000 90 619,000 ISAT 52,326 1,121,226 559,000 50 525,000 EXCL 59,040 1,121,226 665,000 59 211,000
3G 55 47 19
Source: TLKM, Bisnis Indonesia, SSI Research
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Indosat ISAT:IJ | ISAT.JK
Key Financial Profit and Loss Rp bn
15A
16A
17E
18E
Cellular revenue Operating Revenue
21,896 26,769
24,095 29,185
27,062 32,581
29,388 35,355
Operating Expenses Operating profit EBITDA
24,406 2,362 11,131
25,244 3,941 12,913
27,978 4,603 14,456
30,105 5,250 15,619
EBITDA margin (%) Other income (exp.) Pre-tax profit
41.6 (4,148) (1,786)
44.2 (2,145) 1,795
44.4 (1,754) 2,849
44.2 (1,351) 3,899
Income tax - net
622 (147) (1,310)
(520) (171) 1,105
(712) (159) 1,978
(975) (165) 2,760
Minority interest Net profit
Cash Flow Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
15A
16A
17E
18E
Net profit Depreciation & amort. Working capital Operating cash flow
(1,310) 8,769 806 8,265
1,105 8,973 (326) 9,752
1,978 9,853 409 12,240
2,760 10,369 306 13,434
Net - Capital expenditure Investing cash flow
(9,186) (7,145)
(5,131) (7,291)
(6,112) (6,112)
(8,000) (8,000)
Net - Borrowings Other financing Financing cash flow Net - Cash flow
9 (1,094) (1,085) 34
(3,968) (283) (4,251) (1,791)
(3,698) (341) (4,039) 2,089
(3,673) (989) (4,662) 772
3,480 3,514
3,623 1,832
1,850 3,940
3,940 4,712
Net profit margin (%)
(4.9)
3.8
6.1
7.8
Cash at beginning Cash at ending
Balance Sheet Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
15A
16A
17E
18E
Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
15A
16A
17E
18E
3,701 2,730 39 3,448 9,919
1,959 2,707 79 3,328 8,073
3,940 3,022 88 3,328 10,378
4,712 3,280 95 3,328 11,414
ROE (%) ROA (%) Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (% )
-10.5 -2.4 9.0 25.5 na
8.3 2.2 11.6 16.0 na
13.4 4.0 8.5 11.9 79.0
16.7 5.8 0.0 8.0 39.5
41,822 3,648 55,389
39,078 3,687 50,839
35,254 3,667 49,299
32,904 3,648 47,966
Interest coverage (x) Debt to equity (%) Net gearing (% )
0.8 180.2 150.6
1.7 141.7 127.0
2.9 111.4 84.8
4.0 77.3 48.8
Payables 764 ST. debt and curr. maturity 7,586 Other current liabilities 11,703 LT. debt 20,057 Other long term liabilities 22,067 Total liabilities 42,125 Minority initerest 781 Total equity 12,483
845 8,366 9,875 15,309 21,353 36,662 827 13,350
937 4,626 10,516 15,351 18,345 33,696 827 14,776
1,008 3,784 11,014 12,520 18,073 30,593 827 16,546
Cash & ST Investment Receivables Inventories Others Total current assets Net fixed assets Other fixed assets Total assets
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Major Assumptions Subscriber (Mn users) ARPU blended (Rp/month) BTS
15A
16A
17E
18E
69.0 26 50,687
84.7 25 56,483
91.9 24 63,483
99.1 24 70,483
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DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
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