Wednesday, 02 April 2008 www.e-samuel.com
CP Prima (CPRO)
BUY (Maintain Buy)
Price : Rp265
Target Price: Rp850
RESULT HIGHLIGHT
Positive Result, Despite Huge Forex Loss • Net profit rose by 83.6% YoY. CPRO membukukan pendapatan Rp6,091 miliar (+24.4%) di FY07 dengan perolehan laba bersih sebesar Rp358 miliar (+83.6%), lebih tinggi dari estimasi kami yang sebesar Rp5,725 miliar dan Rp313 miliar. Penjualan yang lebih tinggi dari estimasi disebabkan oleh lebih tingginya volume penjualan frozen shrimp FY07 CPRO dibandingkan proyeksi kami, 36,221 MT vs estimasi 34,454 MT. • Higher Margin in FY07. Gross margin naik menjadi 18.4% dari 16.6%, diakibatkan oleh peningkatan kontribusi dari value added product yang memiliki margin lebih tinggi dibandingkan produk konvensional. Sementara program efisiensi biaya energi yang mulai berjalan tahun ini berpotensi meningkatkan gross margin CPRO di FY08-FY09 menjadi 24.5%-26.5% vs proyeksi awal tanpa efisiensi energi sebesar 21.6%-24.1% di FY08-FY09. • Dipasena Revitalization: In line progress. Hingga Desember 2007 CPRO telah merevitalisasi 4,709 tambak (100%) milik PT Wahyu Mandira (ex Dipasena), sehingga total tambak beroperasi mencapai 8,565 tambak. CPRO berencana merevitalisasi lagi 4,839 tambak ex Dipasena tahun ini, sehingga total tambak di FY08 akan mencapai 13,404 tambak. Kami mengekspektasikan produksi frozen shrimp akan mencapai 90,185 MT di FY07 (+149% YoY), dengan pendapatan CPRO sebesar Rp 8,348 miliar (+37.1% YoY). • Traded at far below its fair value, MAINTAIN BUY. CPRO saat ini ditransaksikan pada P/E’08-09 6.7-4.1x dan EV/EBITDA’08-09 5.1-3.7x, lebih rendah dari harga konversi Exchangeable bond di Rp400/saham. Kami menilai harga pasar CPRO saat ini tidak merefleksikan fundamental dari CPRO + Dipasena yang berdasarkan valuasi DCF adalah sebesar Rp848/saham. Concern kami atas CPRO adalah exposure yang besar terhadap fluktuasi US dollar pada sisi kewajiban, CPRO membukukan forex loss Rp180 miliar di FY07 vs forex gain Rp21 miliar di FY06. Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi untuk BUY CPRO dengan target Rp850/saham. MAINTAIN BUY
Forecast and Valuation Y/E Dec (Rpbn) Sales EBITDA Net Profit Basic EPS (Rp) Basic EPS Growth (%) Fully diluted EPS (Rp) DPS BV per share (Rp) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x)
06A 5,035 392 210 20 5% 20 117 8.4 13.3 2.3
07A 6,091 600 313 17 -15% 13 3 84 10.5 17.7 3.2
08F 8,348 1,227 720 39 130% 31 6 147 6.6 6.7 1.8
JCI Index :
2,393.3 Share issued (mn)
18,315.84 Market Cap. (bn)
Rp4,888.95 12 Mth High/Low
Rp770/183 Avg Daily Vol
71,761,074 Free Float (%)
27.2% Nominal Value
Rp100 Book value/share ‘08
147
Analyst: Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 #144
[email protected]
09F 10,872 1,919 1,196 65 66% 51 10 199 3.6 4.1 1.3
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
Wednesday, 02 April 2008 Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 Ext 144
[email protected]
Figure 1. Sales breakdown: moderate growth
Source: Company
Figure 2. Sales Volume : growth in all segment was due to capacity expansion
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
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Wednesday, 02 April 2008 Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 Ext 144
[email protected]
Figure 3. CPRO- FY07 Results US$mn
FY07
FY06
YoY Chg (%)
Revenue
6,091
4,898
+24.4
Gross Profit Opr Profit EBITDA Net Income EPS (Rp)
1,118 478 600 358 20
815 358 392 195 18
+37.2 +33.5 +53.1 +83.8 +11.1
18.4 7.8 5.9
16.6 7.3 4.0
Gross Margin (%) Opr Margin (%) Net Margin (%)
Valuation PV of Cash Flow (Rpbn) PV of Terminal Value (Rpbn) Net Debt (net cash) Equity Value (Rpbn) Average Shares (bn) DCF Equity Value/share Assumption (%) Risk Free Rate (%) Market Risk Premium (%) WACC (%)
3,923 12,602 997 15,528 18.32 848 9.0% 6.0% 10.1%
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
3
Wednesday, 02 April 2008 Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 Ext 144
[email protected]
CPRO Consumer – Food Profit and Loss Statement Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Revenue Cost of good sold Gross profit Operating expenses
06A 4,898
07A 5,725
08E 8,348
09F 10,872
4,083 815 457
4,973 1,118 550
6,543 1,805 601
8,248 2,624 733
Operating profit EBITDA Other expenses (inc) Pretax profit
358 442 82 276
478 600 53 428
1,204 1,227 158 1,045
1,892 1,919 157 1,735
Net profit
195
358
720
1,196
Balance Sheet Yr-end Dec (Rpbn) Cash & ST Investment Account Receivable Inventories Others Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets
06A 946 781 659 131 2,517 1,023 380 3,919
07A 335 2,242 1,170 307 4,053 3,358 384 7,794
08E 1,046 1,246 928 134 3,354 2,284 995 6,633
09F 1,024 1,623 1,208 145 3,999 2,696 992 7,687
Short Term Loans Account Payable CMLTD Others Current Liabilities LT Debt Other LT Liabilities Non-current Liabilities Minority Interest Total Liabilities Total Equity
275 243 63 73 654 1,882 147 2,028 8 2,682 1,230
540 704 94 90 1,429 3,012 1,814 4,826 9 6,254 1,531
250 317 23 120 709 2,935 286 3,221 8 3,930 2,695
250 386 10 147 792 2,925 311 3,236 8 4,028 3,651
Company Background CPRO merupakan salah satu perusahaan aquaculture terbesar di dunia dan juga merupakan salah satu pemimpin pasar di Indonesia. Perseroan menghasilkan produk berupa udang beku, benur, pakan udang, pakan ikan dan pakan ternak, di mana lebih dari 98% produk udang beku diekspor ke AS, Eropa dan, Jepang. Saat ini CPRO memiliki total 3,856 tambak dengan kapasitas produksi 74,400 MT dan akan meningkat mencapai 6,331 tambak di 2009.
Shareholding Structure PT Surya Hidup Satwa Red Dragon Regent Central International Charm Easy International Estimated Free Float
: : : : :
37.9% 24.0% 9.6% 10.9% 17.6%
Price Chart
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
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Wednesday, 02 April 2008 www.e-samuel.com
Recommendation History – Central Proteinaprima (CPRO) Date
Recommendation
Closing Price
Target
07 Dec 2007
BUY
425
850
14 Sep 2007
BUY
400
850
14 Jun 2007
BUY
610
850
19 Apr 2007
BUY
230
295
Recommendation Chart– Central Proteinaprima (CPRO)
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
