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Barito Pacific (BRPT)
BUY (Maintained)
Price : Rp1,520
Target Price: Rp3,200
RESULT HIGHLIGHT
Ready to Kick-off • Net profit jump 518% YoY. Laba bersih FY07 BRPT di FY07 tercatat sebesar Rp44.5 miliar (+518% YoY) vs Rp7.2 miliar di FY06. Lonjakan laba bersih dipicu oleh turunnya COGS sebesar 47% menjadi sebesar Rp251.9 miliar dari Rp473.5 miliar di FY06 akibat shut down pada beberapa fasilitas produksi BRPT di 2007 dan berkurangnya pembeliah bahan baku log. Meski pendapatan bersih turun 28% menjadi Rp336.9 miliar namun berhasil dibukukan gross profit sebesar Rp84.9 miliar vs rugi kotor Rp8.1 miliar di FY06. pendapatan FY07 BRPT in line dengan ekspektasi kami yang memproyeksikan pendapatan BRPT tanpa Chandra Asri sebesar Rp310 miliar. • Chandra Asri will be fully reflected this year. Kontribusi pendapatan dari Chandra Asri belum terefleksi pada result FY07 BRPT karena proses akuisisi Chandra Asri baru tuntas pada pertengahan Desember 2007. Di FY08 pendapatan konsolidasi BRPT kami perkirakan akan melonjak 50x mencapai Rp16.6 triliun, dengan kontribusi CA terhadap pendapatan konsolidasi BRPT mencapai 97.9%. EBITDA di FY08 akan mencapai Rp1.9 triliun sementara pada bottom line akan dibukukan laba bersih Rp1.2 triliun. • Tri Polyta acquisition is the next step. Kami memperkirakan BRPT akan segera menuntaskan akuisisi Tri Polyta tahun ini, sedangkan akuisisi Star Energy kemungkinan besar baru akan dilakukan tahun depan. Konsolidasi Tri Polyta ke dalam BRPT akan meningkatkan pendapatan BRPT sebesar 27-30%. Sumber pendanaan akuisisi kemungkinan besar berasal dari pinjaman, mempertimbangkan right issue baru saja dilakukan di November tahun lalu dan gearing Perseroan yang masih relatif rendah, 0.19x. • Positive outlook on the industry, MAINTAIN BUY. Kami positif terhadap outlook BRPT dan industrinya, menyusul kebijakan China untuk mengurangi penggunaan bahan bakar minyak untuk sektor manufakturnya yang berdampak pada berkurangnya produksi polyethylene dan polypropylene negara tersebut, mengakibatkan semakin ketatnya suplai polyethylene dan polypropylene dunia. Ditransaksikan pada P/E’08 9.2x vs rata-rata regional 16.1x valuasi BRPT kami nilai sangat menarik. Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY dengan target harga Rp3,200/saham. Valuasi kami belum memfaktorkan akuisisi Tri Polyta. MAINTAIN BUY
JCI Index :
2,237.97 Share issued (mn)
6,979.89 Market Cap. (bn)
Rp10,609.44 12 Mth High/Low
Rp3,500/482 Avg Daily Vol
27,868,177 Free Float (%)
47% Nominal Value
Rp1,000 Book value/share ‘08
1,635
Analyst: Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 #144
[email protected]
Forecast and Valuation Y/E Dec (Rp bn) Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS (Rp) DPS BV per share (Rp) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x)
06A 451 (172) 6 3 408 -22.5 672.0 3.7
07A 337 (10) 45 15 5 1,335 120.3 80.6 1.1
08E 16,583 1,879 1,156 166 6 1,635 5.1 9.2 1.0
09F 16,815 1,660 971 139 50 1,724 5.4 10.9 1.0
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
Friday, 04 April 2008 Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 Ext 144
[email protected]
Figure 1. World demand: Growth rate is at 5% CAGR
Source: CMAI
Figure 2. Polyethylene price relative to oil
Figure 3. Propylene price relative to oil 180
180 170
170
160
160
150
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80 Mar-06
80 Jun-06
Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07
Polyethylene
Jun-07
Oil
Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07
Propylene
Jun-07
Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08
Oil
Source: Bloomberg
Harga komoditi polyethylene dan propylene dalam 6 bulan terakhir terlihat relatif lagging dibandingkan kenaikan harga minyak mentah yang merupakan komponen utama dari naphta (bahan baku ethylene dan propylene). Hal tersebut kemungkinan disebabkan oleh adanya tambahan kapasitas produksi terpasang dari produsen di Timur tengah yang menciptakan ekspektasi adanya tambahan suplai polyethylene dan propylene di dunia. Kami memprediksi dengan berkurangnya pasokan dari China harga polyethylene dan propylene akan segera kembali menyesuaikan diri berkolerasi positif dengan kenaikan harga minyak mentah.
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
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Friday, 04 April 2008 Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 Ext 144
[email protected]
Figure 4. Ethylene price relative to oil 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07
Ethylene
Jun-07
Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08
Oil
Source: Bloomberg
Berlawanan dengan tren yang terjadi pada polyethylene dan propylene, harga ethylene terlihat bergerak relatif in line dengan kenaikan harga minyak mentah meskipun ada tambahan kapasitas produksi di timur tengah.
Figure 5. Regional Peer Comparison Company
Country
Ticker
Titan Chemical (Malaysia) Kingfa SCL & Tech Blue Star Chemical Yunnan Yunwei Co Formosa plastic corp Taiwan Styrene Monomer Thai Plastic & Chemicals Average
Malaysia China China China Taiwan Taiwan Thailand
TTNP MK 600143 CH 600299 CH 600725 CH 1301 TT 1310 TT TPC TB
P/E’08 (x)
PBV’08 (x)
5.0 20.0 24.8 20.2 10.9 24.8 7.0 16.1
0.6 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.2 1.0 1.3 2.4
Source: Bloomberg
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
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Friday, 04 April 2008 Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 Ext 144
[email protected]
Figure 6. BRPT- FY07 Results Rp miliar Revenue
337
465
YoY Chg (%) -27.6%
Gross Profit Opr Profit Net Income EPS (Rp)
85 -42 45 15
-8 -192 7 3
Na Na 518.1% 400.0%
25.2% -12.5% 13.4%
-1.7% -41.3% 1.5%
Gross Margin (%) Opr Margin (%) Net Margin (%)
FY07
FY06
Source: Company
BRPT Valuation PV of Cash Flow (Rpbn) PV of Terminal Value (Rpbn) Net Debt (net cash) Equity Value (Rpbn) Average Shares (bn) DCF Equity Value/share Assumption (%) Risk Free Rate (%) Market Risk Premium (%) WACC (%)
11,145 10,386 (691) 22,470 6.98 3,220 8.5% 6% 13.6%
Source: SSI Estimates
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
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Friday, 04 April 2008 www.e-samuel.com
BRPT Petrochemical Profit and Loss Statement 08E
Company Background
09F
451
337
16,583
16,815
(474)
(252)
(14,229)
(14,669)
(22)
85
2,354
2,147
(184)
(127)
(510)
-521
(192) (172)
(42) (10)
1,859 1,879
1,640 1,660
241
90
7
7 1,647
17
48
1,866
(8)
(4)
(373)
-329
(1)
-
(337)
-347
6
45
1,156
971
Balance Sheet 07A
08E
09F
357
1,036
3,261
3,473
21 147 525 343 871 1,739 0
1,167 2,610 4,813 10,161 1,782 16,755 2,245
1,382 1,704 6,347 10,377 1,653 18,378 2,245
1,401 1,728 6,603 10,532 1,524 18,659 2,245
499 178
2,379 2,968
2,798 3,001
3,028 2,428
21.0% 12.7% 9.8% 9.4% 47.2%
Price Chart 650
BRPT
JCI
550 450 350 250 150
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
A pr-08
M ar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
5,456 11,085
Oct-07
5,799 10,461
Nov -07
5,348 9,320
Sep-07
677 1,062
A ug-07
50 Jul-07
Current Liabilities Non-current Liabilities Total Liabilities Total Equity
06A
Shareholding Structure Commerzbank Ltd Whistler Petrochemical PT Barito Pacific Lumber PT Tunggal Setia Pratama Others
Jun-07
Yr-end Dec (Rpbn) Cash & ST Investment Account Receivable Others Total Cr. Assets Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets Minority Interest
PT Barito Pacific Tbk didirikan pada tahun 1968, Bergerak di bidang industri eksploitasi hasil hutan yang meliputi produksi kayu lapis (plywood), particle board dan woodworking. Pasca akuisisi PT Chandra Asri BRPT menjelma menjadi raksasa petrochemical di Asia sebagai penghasil ethylene, propylene, polyethylene dan turunannya.
A pr-07
Operating profit EBITDA Other income (exp) Pretax profit Tax Minority Interest Net profit
07A
M ay-07
Revenue Cost of good sold Gross profit Op. expenses
06A
M ar-07
Yr-end Dec(Rp bn)
Friday, 04 April 2008 www.e-samuel.com
Recommendation History – Barito Pacific (BRPT) Date 17 Jan 2008
Recommendation BUY
Closing Price 2,300
Target 3,200
Recommendation Chart– Barito Pacific (BRPT)
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
