Friday, 07 Desember 2007 www.e-samuel.com
CP Prima (CPRO)
BUY (Maintain Buy)
Price : Rp430
Target Price: Rp850
On Track Revitalization
COMPANY UPDATE
• Will Divest power plant and poultry feed mill assets. Guna lebih memfokuskan pada core business aquaculture, CPRO akan melepas aset yang terkait dengan bisnis poultry feed senilai Rp108.7 miliar kepada Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPI). Selain itu CPRO juga berencana menjual 3 unit pembangkit listrik dengan total kapasitas 211.4 MW yang terletak di Lampung dan Sumatera Selatan kepada PT Central Daya Energi (CDE) senilai total Rp900 miliar dalam rangka efisiensi biaya energi. • Margin will up. Implikasi dari efisiensi biaya energi adalah meningkatnya gross margin CPRO di FY08-FY09 menjadi 24.5%-26.5% vs proyeksi awal kami tanpa efisiensi energi sebesar 21.6%-24.1% di FY08-FY09. Dalam total 5 tahun ke depan CPRO berpotensi menghemat biaya energi sebesar Rp2.2 triliun. • Dipasena Revitalization: A lot of progress. Hingga Oktober 2007 CPRO telah merevitalisasi 3,296 tambak (70%) milik PT Wahyu Mandira (WM/ex Dipasena), Sisa 1,413 tambak akan tuntas direvitalisasi di bulan Desember, sehingga efektif di FY07 100% tambak WM telah tuntas direvitaslisasi dan dalam 6 bulan beroperasi (Juli – Desember’07) akan menghasilkan 7,600 MT udang, sesuai dengan proyeksi kami. • Potential upgrade on DCF valuation, MAINTAIN BUY. Valuasi DCF CPRO berpotensi melonjak hingga Rp995/saham apabila memfaktorkan efisiensi biaya energi dan kenaikan gross margin menjadi 24.5% di FY08. Catalyst bagi saham CPRO adalah berjalan lancarnya proses efisiensi biaya energi yang diawali dengan disetujuinya penjualan aset pembangkit listrik pada RUPSLB 18 Desember mendatang. Kami masih merekomendasikan BUY CPRO dengan target harga Rp850/saham. MAINTAIN BUY
Forecast and Valuation Y/E Dec (Rpbn) Sales EBITDA Net Profit Basic EPS (Rp) Basic EPS Growth (%) Fully diluted EPS (Rp) DPS BV per share (Rp) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x)
06A 5,035 392 210 20 5% 20 117 12.9 21.5 3.7
07E 5,725 579 313 17 -15% 13 3 90 15.7 25.1 4.8
08F 8,348 1,227 720 39 130% 31 6 122 7.6 10.9 3.5
09F 10,872 1,919 1,196 65 66% 51 10 174 5.2 6.6 2.5
JCI Index :
2,795.40 Share issued (mn)
18,315.84 Market Cap. (bn)
Rp7,879.80 12 Mth High/Low
Rp770/160 Avg Daily Vol
114,000,000 Free Float (%)
17.6% Nominal Value
Rp100 Book value/share ‘08
122
Analyst: Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 #144
[email protected]
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
Friday, 07 Desember 2007 Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 Ext 144
[email protected]
• Will Divest power plant and poultry feed mill assets Guna lebih memfokuskan pada core business aquaculture, CPRO akan melepas aset yang terkait dengan bisnis poultry feed senilai Rp108.7 miliar kepada Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPI). Aset tersebut berupa poultry feed mill di Demak dan Semarang, Jawa Tengah, yang memiliki kapasitas produksi 396 ribu MT/th. Selain itu CPRO juga berencana menjual 3 unit pembangkit listrik dengan total kapasitas 211.4 MW yang terletak di Lampung dan Sumatera Selatan kepada PT Central Daya Energi (CDE) senilai total Rp900 miliar. Penjualan pembangkit listrik berbahan bakar minyak (oil fired power plant) tersebut adalah dalam rangka rencana untuk efisiensi biaya energi Perseroan. Aset poultry feed mill memiliki nilai buku sebesar Rp80 miliar sehingga CPRO akan membukukan laba atas penjualan aset tersebut (gain on asset sale) sebesar Rp20.1 miliar di FY07 (asumsi tax rate 30%). Sementara nilai buku dari pembangkit listrik belum kami ketahui dengan pasti sehingga belum dapat diketahui potensi tambahan laba dari penjualan pembangkit listrik. Rencana penjualan aset-aset tersebut masih membutuhkan persetujuan RUPSLB pada 18 Desember mendatang, namun kami cukup optimis rencana divestasi akan berlangsung mulus sehingga di FY07 CPRO akan membukukan gain on assets sales setidaknya sebesar Rp20.1 miliar (dengan asumsi nilai buku pembangkit listrik lebih rendah dari nilai jualnya), berdampak pada meningkatnya laba bersih FY07 CPRO menjadi Rp333.1 miliar. Figure 1. Power Plant Details Power Plant
Installed Capacity (MW)
Cost (Rp/kwh)
Selling Price (Rp bn)
CPB
61.58
1,170
120
AWS
59.84
1,450
270
WM
90.00
1,370
510
Total
211.42
900
Source: Company
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
2
Friday, 07 Desember 2007 Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 Ext 144
[email protected]
• Margin will up Setelah membeli pembangkit listrik milik CPRO, CDE akan memodifikasi pembangkit listrik tersebut dari berbahan bakar minyak menjadi berbahan bakar gas untuk kemudian menjual kembali listrik hasil produksinya kepada CPRO. CPRO akan membeli listrik dari CDE dengan harga per kwh yang lebih murah dibandingkan dengan memproduksi listrik dari pembangkit listrik milik sendiri. Biaya rata-rata dari 3 pembangkit listrik berbasis minyak milik CPRO saat ini adalah sebesar Rp1,700/kwh, setelah dimodifikasi, CPRO akan membeli listrik dari CDE seharga Rp1,100/kwh. Di tahun kedua kemungkinan besar pembangkit listrik tersebut akan kembali dimodifikasi sehingga juga dapat menggunakan batu bara sebagai sumber energi. Setelah menggunakan batu bara, biaya listrik akan kembali turun menjadi Rp650/kwh. Implikasi dari efisiensi biaya energi tersebut adalah meningkatnya gross margin CPRO di FY08FY09 menjadi 24.5%-26.5% vs proyeksi awal kami tanpa efisiensi energi sebesar 21.6%-24.1% di FY08-FY09. Komponen biaya energi dalam total biaya produksi CPRO adalah sebesar 12%, sehingga dalam total 5 tahun ke depan akan dihemat biaya energi sebesar Rp2.2 triliun. Figure 2. Impacts of energy cost efficiency FY08F
FY09F
Gross Margin With energy cost efficiency Without energy cost efficiency
24.5% 21.6%
26.3% 24.1%
Gross Profit (Rpbn) With energy cost efficiency Without energy cost efficiency
2,048 1,805
2,855 2,624
EBITDA (Rpbn) With energy cost efficiency Without energy cost efficiency
1,470 1,227
2,150 1,919
Net Profit (Rpbn) With energy cost efficiency Without energy cost efficiency
890 720
1,355 1,196
% Change
% Change
% Change
% Change
Source: SSI estimates
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
3
Friday, 07 Desember 2007 Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 Ext 144
[email protected]
Figure 3. Margin will up after reduction on energy cost 10.94% 1.
CPRO Power Plants
2.
CPRO Power Plants
3.
CDE Power Plants (Ex CPRO)
4.
CDE New Modified Power Plants
Produce electricity with cost at Rp1,700/kwh
Sell to CDE at Rp900 billion
Modified from oil based to gas based
Sell electricity at Rp1,100/kwh
CPRO
CDE
CDE New Modified Power Plants
CPRO
- Gross margin up to 24.5% - Gross profit up to Rp2.0 tr - Net Profit up to Rp890 bn - DCF Valuation up to Rp995
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
4
Friday, 07 Desember 2007 Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 Ext 144
[email protected]
• Dipasena Revitalization : A lot of progress Hingga Oktober 2007 CPRO telah merevitalisasi 3,296 tambak (70%) milik PT Wahyu Mandira (WM/ex Dipasena), naik drastis dari bulan Agustus yang baru sebanyak 1,884 tambak terevitalisasi. Sisa 1,413 tambak akan tuntas direvitalisasi di bulan Desember, sehingga efektif di FY07 100% tambak WM telah tuntas direvitaslisasi dan dalam 6 bulan beroperasi (Juli – Desember’07) akan menghasilkan 7,600 MT udang, sesuai dengan proyeksi kami.
Figure 4. Dipasena Revitalization Progress and Projection Areas of Revitalization
Unit
July 07
Aug 07
Oct 07
Dec 07*
4,709
4,709
4,709
4,709
Ponds revitalized
706
1,884
3,296
4,709
Ponds ready for culture
15%
40%
70%
100%
Mn fries/mth
220
350
460
765
Mn fries/yr
2,640
4,200
5,520
9,180
MT/mth
2,000
3,500
3,500
8,000
MT/yr
24,000
42,000
42,000
96,000
MT/mth
840
1,120
1,120
2,800
MT/yr
10,080
13,440
13,440
33,600
WM
MW
12.5
25.0
37.5
37.5
DCD
MW
12.0
18.0
19.0
28.0
Ponds No of ponds at WM
Hatcheries
Shrimp Feedmill
Processing Plant
Power Plant
Source: Company
*Projection
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
5
Friday, 07 Desember 2007 Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 Ext 144
[email protected]
• Potential upgrade on DCF valuation Valuasi DCF CPRO berpotensi melonjak hingga Rp995/saham apabila memfaktorkan efisiensi biaya energi dan kenaikan gross margin menjadi 24.5% di FY08, menawarkan upside potential 131.4% dari harga saat ini. Kami akan segera merevisi estimasi kami pasca disetujuinya penjualan pembangkit listrik Perseroan pada RUPSLB 18 Desember mendatang.
Pada level Rp430/saham CPRO ditransaksikan pada P/E’08 10.9x dan EV/EBITDA’08 7.6x, menyisakan potential upside 97.7% dari target harga kami yang sebesar Rp850/saham. Kami menilai harga pasar CPRO saat ini tidak merefleksikan fundamental dari CPRO + Dipasena, melainkan tertahan akibat adanya konversi exchangeable bond di harga Rp400/saham.
Catalyst bagi saham CPRO adalah berjalan lancarnya proses efisiensi beban energi yang diawali dengan disetujuinya penjualan aset pembangkit listrik Perseroan pada RUPSLB 18 Desember mendatang.
Selain itu, telah ditandatanganinya PKS ( perjanjian kerja sama kemitraan) dengan petani plasma ex Dipasena pada 22 November lalu juga telah mengikis kekhawatiran akan konflik internal di tubuh CPRO yang akan berdampak positif pada going concern dan stabilitas bisnis CPRO.
Kami masih merekomendasikan BUY CPRO dengan target harga Rp850/saham, menawarkan
potential upside 97.7% dari level saat ini. MAINTAIN BUY
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
6
Friday, 07 Desember 2007 Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 Ext 144
[email protected]
CPRO Consumer – Food Company Background
Profit and Loss Statement Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Revenue Cost of good sold Gross profit Operating expenses
06A 5,035
07F 5,725
08F 8,348
09F 10,872
4,192 843 463
4,614 1,111 550
6,543 1,805 601
8,248 2,624 733
Operating profit EBITDA Other expenses (inc) Pretax profit
380 392 96 305
561 579 106 455
1,204 1,227 158 1,045
1,892 1,919 157 1,735
Net profit
210
313
720
1,196
Valuation PV of Cash Flow (Rpbn) PV of Terminal Value (Rpbn) Net Debt (net cash) Equity Value (Rpbn) Average Shares (bn) DCF Equity Value/share Assumption (%) Risk Free Rate (%) Market Risk Premium (%) WACC (%)
3,923 12,602 997 15,528 18.32 848 9.0% 6.0% 10.1%
CPRO merupakan salah satu perusahaan aquaculture terbesar di dunia dan juga merupakan salah satu pemimpin pasar di Indonesia. Perseroan menghasilkan produk berupa udang beku, benur, pakan udang, pakan ikan dan pakan ternak, di mana lebih dari 98% produk udang beku diekspor ke AS, Eropa dan, Jepang. Saat ini CPRO memiliki total 3,856 tambak dengan kapasitas produksi 74,400 MT dan akan meningkat mencapai 6,331 tambak di 2009.
Shareholding Structure PT Surya Hidup Satwa Red Dragon Regent Central International Charm Easy International Estimated Free Float
: : : : :
37.9% 24.0% 9.6% 10.9% 17.6%
Price Chart 130
CPRO
JCI
110
90
70
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
Apr-07
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Friday, 07 Desember 2007 www.e-samuel.com
CPRO Consumer - Food
Basic Assumption Yr-end Dec (Rpbn)
Y/E rate Rp/USD Sales Volume Frozen Shrimp (MT) Shrimp Feed (MT) Fish Feed (MT) Poultry Feed (MT) Shrimp Fry (mn) DOC (th) Average Selling Price Frozen Shrimp (US$/Kg) Shrimp Feed (Rp/Kg) Fish Feed (Rp/Kg) Poultry Feed (Rp/Kg) Shrimp Fry (Rp/fry) DOC (Rp/DOC)
06A 9,020
07E 9,000
08F 9,000
09F 9,000
30,840 109,673 219,029 303,999 5,389 2,321
34,454 138,600 352,241 308,880 7,018 2,160
90,185 180,600 356,434 11,558 2,288
123,753 245,600 360,627 14,448 2,256
7.1 8,197 3,695 2,447 30 2321
7.2 8,351 3,962 2,534 35 2160
7.2 8,692 4,160 2,463 35 2288
7.2 8,779 4,368 2,458 35 2256
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
Friday, 07 Desember 2007 www.e-samuel.com
Recommendation History – Central Proteinaprima (CPRO) Date
Recommendation
Closing Price
Target
14 Sep 2007
BUY
400
850
14 Jun 2007
BUY
610
850
19 Apr 2007
BUY
230
295
Recommendation Chart– Central Proteinaprima (CPRO)
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
