Equity Research Company Update
Total Bangun Persada Kunjungan situs SCBD Lot X - JO dengan Takenaka
BUY
Baru-baru ini, kami mengunjungi proyek joint operation TOTL dengan Takenaka di SCBD Lot X untuk melihat proyek pengembangan mereka dan operasional TOTL di lapangan.
Current price Price target Upside/Downside
Temuan penting yang kami dapatkan: -
proyek ini dimiliki oleh PT. Prima Bangun Investama joint operation, Takenaka memiliki 55% dan TOTL 45% durasi proyek 29 bulan, mulai 1 Jan 2015 dan dijadwalkan selesai 31 Mei 2017. nilai proyek Rp2.7tn dengan ruang struktural 160.000sqm, nilai kotor per sqm Rp16.9juta. ruang bersih per lantai 2.100sqm, 35 lantai yang bisa dijual atau total sekitar 73.500sqm. Nilai bersih per sqm sekitar Rp36.7juta.
Proyek ini sedikit terlambat, namun diperkirakan masih bisa selesai tepat waktu. Hambatan terbesar proyek ini adalah persetujuan pemilik jika ada perubahan seperti disain, karena pemilik proyek ada di Hong Kong. Dalam pandangan kami, kualitas manajemen proyek TOTL sangat tinggi untuk beberapa alasan. Pertama, keamanan dijadikan prioritas utama, untuk semua pekerja dan pengunjung. Sebagai tambahan, ruang kerja proyek juga dijaga sangat bersih dan rapi. Kualitas kerja diberi standar sangat tinggi dan sama sekali tak terlihat adanya kelalaian.
Antrian proyek baru masih solid Hingga 9M16, antrian proyek untuk TOTL tetap solid karena ada sekitar Rp7.9tn proyek untuk digarap, naik dari Rp6.9tn beberapa bulan lalu. Hunian bertingkat tetap mendominasi antrian proyek di angka 50%, diikuti gedung multi guna 16%, hotel 14%, perkantoran 12% dan sisanya dari berbagai bangunan seperti mal dan pusat pendidikan. Di antrian ini, ada dua proyek besar dengan nilai di atas Rp1tn di Jakarta.
Rp825 Rp1,204 +45.9%
20 October 2016
INDONESIA KONSTRUKSI Stock Data Bloomberg Ticker Outs. Share (bn) Mkt Cap (USD bn) 52 Week Range (RP) 6M Avg Val (RP bn) YTD Returns (%) Beta (x)
TOTL IJ Equity 3.41 2.81 545-920 5.5 34.1 1.1
Share Price Performance
Target tahunan kontrak baru masih sesuai perkiraan Tidak ada pergerakan untuk kontrak baru di 3Q16, namun bulan Oktober telah mencatat sejumlah proyek baru dengan total Rp350bn, dalam diskusi maupun telah diresmikan. Dengan tambahan tersebut, kontrak baru tercatat sekitar Rp2.5tn atau 83% dari target tahunan, Rp3tn. Kami perkirakan target tahunan bisa dicapai di kuartal ke-4, berkat kisah tax amnesty.
Key investment metrics Revenue (Rp bn) EBIT (Rp bn) Net Profit (Rp bn) EPS (Rp) EPS Growth (%) GPM (%) OPM (%) NPM (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) ROIC (%) P/E (x) P/B (x)
2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2,106 2,266 2,668 3,174 178 228 298 363 165 191 242 295 48 56 71 86 -15% 16% 27% 22% 15% 15% 17% 17% 8% 10% 11% 11% 8% 8% 9% 9% Kunjungan ke situs 25% di SCBD 22% 22% 26% 7% 7% 8% 8% 13% 18% 23% 24% 17.0 14.7 11.6 9.5 3.7 3.3 2.9 2.5
2018F 3,776 437 356 105 21% 17% 12% 9% 27% 9% 25% 7.9 2.2
Share Performance (%) Month Absolute Relative 3m 0.0 -2.4 6m 23.1 6.4 12m 37.8 6.1
Alexander Budiman
[email protected]
+62 21 8067 3134
Shirley Saroinsong
[email protected]
+62 21 8067 3139
Total Bangun Persada 20 October 2016 Kami memulai tur kami di situs dengan memasuki lobi gedung yang masih dalam konstruksi. Gedung ini telah selesai sekitar tiga perempat bagian dan walaupun saat ini terhitung sedikit terlambat, masih bisa selesai bulan Mei 2017, sesuai target awal.
Fig 1
Akses masuk gedung
Sumber: Sucorinvest
Fig 2
Lift naik
Sumber: Sucorinvest
Kunjungan ke lantai mock-up Konstruksi di lantai mock-up, sebagai sampel untuk lantai-lantai lainnya, kurang lebih telah selesai. Dalam proyek JO ini, lantai dinaikkan beberapa sentimeter untuk mengakomodasi kabel listrik yang dipasang di bawah lantai.
Fig 3
Pemasangan lantai di lantai mock-up
Sumber: Sucorinvest
Fig 4 Stok elevasi lantai di lantai mock-up
Sumber: Sucorinvest
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Total Bangun Persada 20 October 2016
Fig 5
Mock-up lantai
Fig 6
Toilet di lantai mock-up
Sumber: Sucorinvest
Sumber: Sucorinvest
Fig 7
Fig 8
Keramik toilet pria dari TOTO
Dudukan toilet dari TOTO
Sumber: Sucorinvest
Sumber: Sucorinvest
Fig 9
Fig 10 Lift eksekutif
Akses masuk ke lift lantai
Sumber: Sucorinvest
Sumber: Sucorinvest
Toilet di gedung ini menggunakan produk merek TOTO, demikian juga sink handle. Bagian-bagian lain dari toilet, termasuk wastafel dan keramik, menggunakan barang impor seperti dari Turki. Kaca untuk gedung diimpor dari Cina.
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Total Bangun Persada 20 October 2016
Fig 11 Konstruksi lantai
Fig 12 Konstruksi lift
Sumber: Sucorinvest
Sumber: Sucorinvest
Fig 13
Fig 14
Atap - kabel dan ventilasi tahan api
Stok beton readymix
Sumber: Sucorinvest
Sumber: Sucorinvest
Fig 15
Fig 16
Proyek menara Sequis TOTL
Sumber: Sucorinvest
Plang proyek
Sumber: Sucorinvest
Kami tidak melihat adanya timbunan semen di situs konstruksi, hanya semen instan. Walaupun semen digunakan dalam pembuatan semen instan, hal ini berarti turunnya penggunaan semen dalam konstruksi bangunan bertingkat ke depannya.
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Total Bangun Persada 20 October 2016
Financial Summary Fig 17 Income statement highlights 2014 2,106 1,799 307 152 178 13 178 242 77 165
2015 2,266 1,924 342 176 228 23 228 263 72 191
2016F 2,668 2,214 453 200 298 33 331 322 80 242
2017F 3,174 2,635 540 229 363 59 422 390 95 295
2018F 3,776 3,134 642 264 437 79 516 470 113 356
(Rp bn) Cash Accounts receivable Advances Others Total Current Assets
2014 646 978 130 269 2,023
2015 808 1,002 139 287 2,236
2016F 796 1,078 166 320 2,360
2017F 910 1,283 198 381 2,771
2018F 1,087 1,562 235 453 3,337
PP&E - net Guarantee deposit Others Total Non-Current Assets Total Assets
71 279 111 461 2,484
194 274 142 610 2,846
294 274 142 710 3,071
394 274 142 810 3,581
429 274 142 845 4,181
Accounts payable Advances Accrued expenses Others Loans Total Current Liabilities
70 841 514 133 1,558
156 869 629 107 16 1,777
212 794 737 120 12 1,876
253 975 831 132 2,190
301 1,190 951 145 2,587
Total Non-Current Liabilities Total Liabilities
158 1,716
203 1,980
223 2,099
246 2,436
270 2,857
345 2 415 6
345 17 505 (1)
345 17 611 (1)
345 17 785 (1)
345 17 963 (1)
768
866
972
1,146
1,324
(Rp bn) Revenues COGS Gross profit Operating expenses EBIT DA EBITDA Pre-tax Income Income tax exp Net Profit Source: Company, Sucorinvest estimates
Fig 18 Balance sheet
Common Shares Minority Interest Retained Earnings Others Shareholders' equity Source: Company, Sucorinvest estimates
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Total Bangun Persada 20 October 2016
Fig 19 Statement of cash flows 2014
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
EBIT DA NWC Financial expense Others Total
178 13 265 (77) 64 443
228 23 152 (72) 35 366
298 33 (34) (80) 24 242
363 59 30 (95) 27 383
437 79 8 (113) 33 443
Cash Flows from Investing Activities Capex Others Total
6 178 184
122 50 172
133 133
159 159
113 113
FCF
437
194
108
225
330
(11) (119) (46) (21) (64) (261)
(7) (102) 1 45 16 15 (32)
(136) 20 (4) (120)
(121) 22 (12) (111)
(178) 25 (154)
648 (2) 646
646 162 808
808 (12) 796
796 114 910
910 177 1,087
2014 15% 8% 8% 13% 22%
2015 15% 10% 8% 18% 22%
2016F 17% 11% 9% 23% 25%
2017F 17% 11% 9% 24% 26%
2018F 17% 12% 9% 25% 27%
(Rp bn) Cash Flows from Operating Activities
Cash Flows from Financing Activities Change in Equity Dividend Adjustment Change in Long-Term Liabilities Change in Short-Term Debt Change in minority interest Total Beginning Cash Change in Cash Ending Cash Source: Company, Sucorinvest estimates
Fig 20 Key ratios (%) GPM OPM NPM ROIC ROE Source: Company, Sucorinvest estimates
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Total Bangun Persada 20 October 2016
Fig 21
Pendapatan terus naik stabil
Fig 22
Pertumbuhan kontrak baru kuat di angka 20%
(Rp bn) 5,000
(Rp bn)
4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
4,000 3,000
2,000 1,000 0 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016F 2017F 2018F
Sumber: Perusahaan, estimasi Sucorinvest
Sumber: Perusahaan, estimasi Sucorinvest
Fig 23
Fig 24 ROE dan ROIC di kisaran 20%
NPM mendekati dua angka
20%
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
15% 10% 5%
0% 2012
2013
2014
GPM
2015 OPM
Sumber: Perusahaan, estimasi Sucorinvest
2016F 2017F 2018F NPM
2012
2013
2014
2015
ROE
2016F 2017F 2018F ROIC
Sumber: Perusahaan, estimasi Sucorinvest
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Total Bangun Persada 20 October 2016
Sucorinvest rating definition, analysts’ certification, and important disclosure
Ratings for Sectors Overweight Neutral Underweight
: We expect the industry to perform better than the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months. : We expect the industry to perform in line with the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months. : We expect the industry to underperform the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months
Ratings for Stocks Buy Hold Sell
: We expect this stock to give return (excluding dividend) of above 10% over the next 12 months. : We expect this stock to give return of between -10% and 10% over the next 12 months. : We expect this stock to give return of -10% or lower over the next 12 months
Analyst Certification The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report hereby certi20 that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. The research analyst(s) also certi20 that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Disclaimers This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell any securities. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani and its directors, officials and/or employees may have positions in, and may affect transactions in securities mentioned herein from time to time in the open market or otherwise, and may receive brokerage fees or act as principal or agent in dealings with respect to these companies. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani may also seek investment banking business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
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Total Bangun Persada 20 October 2016
Sales Office & Research PT. Sucorinvest Central Gani HEAD OFFICE PT. Sucorinvest Central Gani Sahid Sudirman Center, Jl. Jend Sudirman Kav. 86 Jakarta 10220 – Indonesia Ph : (+62-21) 8067 3000 Fax : (+62-21) 2788 9288
TANGERANG GALERI INVESTASI Swiss German University Edu Town BSD City Fakultas Business Administration & Humanity Tangerang 15339
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MALANG Jl. Jaksa Agung Suprapto No.40 Kav. B4, Malang 68416 Ph: (+62-341) 346 900 Fax: (+62-341) 346 928
Research 1. Stanley Liong 2. Alexander Budiman 3. Erni Marsella Siahaan 4. Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi 5. Felicia Putri Tjiasaka 6. Sandy Ham 7. Adina Stephanie Layarda 8. Putri Kinanty Siregar 9. Shirley Saroinsong
SURABAYA Jl. Trunojoyo no.67 Surabaya 60264 Ph: (+62-31) 563 3720 Fax: (+62-31) 563 3710
Email Senior equity analyst Equity analyst Equity analyst Equity analyst On-the-ground analyst On-the-ground analyst On-the-ground analyst Economist Editor & translator
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
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