Equity Research FLASH NOTE
BISI International Tambang emas (jagung) baru
BUY
Baru-baru ini, di awal bulan Juni, pemerintah telah mencanangkan program tumpangsari jagung di pada satu juta hektar lahan perkebunan sawit dan karet yang belum produktif, sebagai upaya untuk mempercepat produksi jagung domestik. Menurut kami, tumpang sari dapat memberikan pengaruh permanen pada luas panen jagung, dan BISI akan diuntungkan dari peningkatan permintaan terhadap benih jagung. Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi Beli untuk BISI dengan target harga Rp2,400.
Current price Price target Upside
Rp1,770 Rp2,400 35.6%
14 June 2016
Potensi areal untuk tumpang sari mencapai 3.2 juta hektar Kami juga mencatat, di Februari, pemerintah juga berencana untuk membuka areal pertanaman jagung di hutan produksi milik Perum Perhutani. Oleh karena itu, kami memperkirakan area yang potensial untuk tumpang sari mencapai 3,2 juta hektar, yang terdiri dari: (a) 1,2 juta hektar dari lahan sawit yang belum produktif (b) 0.4 juta hektar dari lahan karet yang belum produktif, dan (c) 1,5 juta hektar dari lahan yang dimiliki Perhutani. Jika pemerintah mampu menerapkan tumpang sari pada 1 juta hektar lahan pada areal tersebut, permintaan tambahan dari pasar untuk benih jagung bisa mencapai 15.000 ton, sama dengan 25% permintaan pasar saat ini.
Kenaikan permanen pada permintaan benih jagung Potensi area untuk tumpangsari jagung akan kecil kemungkinannya untuk turun, selama pemerintah tidak melaksanakan kebijakan morotarium. Kami juga melihat rendahnya kemungkinan para petani akan berpaling menanam komoditas tanaman pangan lain begitu mereka mulai menanam jagung. Untuk wilayah tidak memiliki irigasi seperti lahan sawit dan karet, jagung lebih cocok dibanding padi jika mengingat rendahnya kebutuhan air, dan lebih mudah dipasarkan dibandingkan tanaman palawija lainnya.
Upside di mana-mana, pertahankan BELI Kami mempertahankan pandangan positif kami terhadap BISI, mengingat upside yang kuat dari kebijakan pemerintah yang suportif dalam meningkatkan produksi jagung domestik. Kami memperkirakan BISI akan mencatat NPAT sebesar Rp361milyar (+36% YoY) tahun ini, didorong oleh pertumbuhan volum benih jagung sebesar 30% (silahkan lihat laporan kami sebelum ini). Permintaan tambahan dari tumpang sari bisa berujung pada pendapatan full year yang melampaui perkiraan kami. Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi BELI dengan harga target berdasarkan DCF Rp2.400 (WACC 12%, LTG 5%), yang berarti P/E 2016F 20x.
Key investment metrics Revenue (Rp bn) Net profit (Rp bn)
2014 1,156
2015 1,438
2016F
2017F
2018F
1,762
1,938
2,150
165
264
361
441
515
EPS growth
29.9%
60.0%
36.7%
22.3%
16.7%
Net profit margin
14.3%
18.4%
20.5%
22.8%
23.9%
ROE
10.3%
14.5%
17.3%
18.3%
18.4%
ROA
8.8%
12.3%
14.8%
15.7%
15.9%
ROIC
9.4%
13.8%
17.1%
20.4%
21.9%
P/E (x)
32.3
20.2
14.8
12.1
10.3
3.3
2.9
2.6
2.2
1.9
P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
23.1
14.6
10.2
8.2
6.7
Dividend yield
0.7%
1.2%
1.7%
2.1%
2.4%
INDONESIA Agriculture Stock Data Bloomberg Ticker Outs. Share (bn) Mkt Cap (USD bn) 52 Week Range (Rp) 6M Avg Val (Rp bn) YTD Returns (%) Beta (x)
BISI IJ Equity 3.00 0.40 830-1,840 1.4 30.7 1.2
Share Price Performance 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Share Performance (%) Month Absolute Relative 3m 12.8 10.5 6m 39.4 25.0 12m 25.8 26.3
Inav Haria Chandra
[email protected] +62 21 8067 3133
SucorInvest
BISI International
14 June 2016
Figure 1: Tumpang sari jagung dengan sawit di Sumatera Barat
Figure 2. Panen jagung di lahan milik Perhutani
Source: Berbagai sumber
Sumber: Berbagai sumber
Figure 3: Luas areal perkebunan sawit milik rakyat (dalam juta hektar)
Figure 4. Luas areal perkebunan karet milik rakyat (dalam juta hektar)
0.10
0.10
0.39 1.23
3.41
Immature
2.60
Mature
Immature
Damaged
Mature
Damaged
Sumber: Direktorat Jendral Perkebunan
Sumber: Direktorat Jendral Perkebunan
Figure 5: Luas areal milik Perum Perhutani
Figure 6. Potensi kenaikan areal panen jagung dari tumpang sari mn ha 4.0 3.5
0.68
3.0 2.5 2.0
0.43
1.45
1.5
3.8
Land owned by Perhutani
1.5
Rubber
0.4
1.0 0.5
1.2
1.0
Potential area for intercropping
Government target for intercropping (2016)
Palm oil
0.0 Production forest
Limited production forest
Sumber: Direktorat Jendral Perkebunan
Conservative
Corn Harvested area (2015)
Sumber: Direktorat Jendral Perkebunan
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SucorInvest
BISI International
14 June 2016
Financial Summary Profit and loss (Rp bn) Total revenue Cost of Revenue Gross Profit Operating expense Operating profit EBITDA Interest expense Interest income Forex gain (loss) Other income (exp) Pre-tax income Income tax exp (benefit) Minority interest Extraordinary items Net profit
2014 2015 1,156 1,438 752 856 403 582 216 273 203 321 223 343 1 1 7 12 (0) 0 0 209 332 44 68 0 0 165 264
2016F 1,762 971 791 352 438 460 13 451 90 361
2017F 1,938 1,043 896 368 527 551 24 552 110 441
2018F 2,150 1,131 1,019 408 610 634 33 643 129 515
Balance sheet (Rp bn) Cash ST investments Accounts receivable Inventories Others Total Current Assets
2014 2015 174 315 627 722 534 713 194 29 1,530 1,778
2016F 606 766 647 35 2,055
2017F 829 843 695 39 2,406
2018F 1,086 935 754 43 2,818
PP&E - net Others Total Assets
276 66 1,871
293 70 2,142
301 86 2,442
304 95 2,805
307 105 3,230
89 122 211
144 135 279
132 166 298
142 182 324
154 202 356
55 0 1,605 1,871
47 0 1,815 2,141
58 0 2,086 2,442
63 0 2,417 2,805
70 0 2,803 3,230
ST borrowing Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term loan Others Minority Interest Shareholders' equity Total Liabilities and Equity
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SucorInvest
BISI International
14 June 2016
Cashflow (Rp bn) EBIT D&A Others Change in working capital Interest & taxes Operating cash flow
2014 203 20 (8) (51) (38) 126
2015 321 22 (4) (40) (57) 242
2016F 438 22 34 (78) 417
2017F 527 23 (102) (86) 363
2018F 610 24 (123) (96) 416
Capital expenditures Disposal of fixed asset Change in ST investment Dividend received Others Investing cash flow
(48) 3 (45)
(39) 1 (38)
(30) (16) (46)
(26) (9) (35)
(27) (10) (37)
80
204
371
328
378
Change in Equity Net change in LT borrowings Net change in ST borrowings Cash Dividends Paid Others Financing cash flow
(1) (36) 0 (37)
(63) (0) (63)
(90) 11 (80)
(110) 6 (105)
(129) 7 (122)
Beginning cash Change in cash Other adjustment Ending cash
131 44 174
174 141 (1) 315
315 291
606 223
829 257
606
829
1,086
2016F 44.9% 24.9% 20.5% 17.3% 14.8% 17.1% 14.8 2.6 4,718 10.2 1.7% 7.0% (606) (0.3)
2017F 46.2% 27.2% 22.8% 18.3% 15.7% 20.4% 12.1 2.2 4,494 8.2 2.1% 6.2% (829) (0.3)
2018F 47.4% 28.4% 23.9% 18.4% 15.9% 21.9% 10.3 1.9 4,238 6.7 2.4% 7.1% (1,086) (0.4)
Free cashflow
Key ratios Gross profit margin Operating profit margin Net Profit margin ROE ROA ROIC PE (x) PBV (x) EV (Rp bn) EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend yield Free cash flow yield Net debt (Rp bn) Net debt/EBITDA Net debt/equity
2014 34.9% 17.6% 14.3% 10.3% 8.8% 9.4% 32.3 3.3 5,159 23.1 0.7% 1.5% (174) (0.8) (0.1)
2015 40.5% 22.3% 18.4% 14.5% 12.3% 13.8% 20.2 2.9 5,009 14.6 1.2% 3.8% (315) (0.9) (0.2)
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SucorInvest
BISI International
14 June 2016
Sucorinvest rating definition, analysts certification, and important disclosure
Ratings for Sectors Overweight Neutral Underweight
: We expect the industry to perform better than the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months. : We expect the industry to perform in line with the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months. : We expect the industry to underperform the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Ratings for Stocks Buy Hold Sell
: We expect this stock to give return (excluding dividend) of above 10% over the next 12 months. : We expect this stock to give return of between -10% and 10% over the next 12 months. : We expect this stock to give return of -10% or lower over the next 12 months.
Analyst Certification The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. The research analyst(s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Disclaimers This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell any securities. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani and its directors, officials and/or employees may have positions in, and may affect transactions in securities mentioned herein from time to time in the open market or otherwise, and may receive brokerage fees or act as principal or agent in dealings with respect to these companies. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani may also seek investment banking business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
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BISI International
14 June 2016
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Research 1. Inav Haria Chandra 2. Adityo M. Yogiswara 3. Alexander Budiman 4. Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi 5. Felicia Putri 6. Sandy Ham 7. Emily Bonosusatya 8. Ahmad Hapiz
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