Indonesia Equity Research

Company Update – Buy Tp.13,732

PT.Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI)

Stock Highlight :

Preparing For Next Transformation to be Top Bank In ASEAN 2020

Indonesia Equity Research

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Tahun 2014 Bank Mandiri berhasil mencapai stage ke 3 dari 4 stages yang dicanangkan oleh Bank Mandiri sejak tahun 2005. Stages ke 3 mengharuskan Bank Mandiri mempuyai Market Kapitalisasi Rp.225 triliun, Market shares dari sisi pendapatan sebesar 14%-16%, ROE > 25% dan NPL< 4%. Tahun 2014 pendapatan Bank Mandiri sebesar Rp.56,8 Triliun dengan net interest income (pendapatan dari kredit/transaksi obligasi) Rp.41,8T, dan pendapatan dari fee seperti fee transaksi, fee kredit sebesar Rp.15,06 T. Dan laba bersih Bank Mandiri tahun 2014 sebesar Rp. 21,482 T. Dengan NIM 2014 menjadi 5,97%. Market Cap per 3 Maret 2015 sebesar Rp.277,6T. Bank Mandiri dengan focus mencapai target Bank terkemuka di ASEAN terus melakukan upaya peningkatan ROE dan NIM. Tahun 2014 ROE BMRI masih dilevel 20,95%. Bank Mandiri terus berupaya meningkatkan kinerja untuk mencapai target ROE diatas 25% per tahun.

Company History Established Date Listing Date Stock Date Ticker Shares Price (3/3/2015) Shares Outstanding (M) Market Cap (M.IDR) High /Low (52 w eeks)

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BMRI 11,900 23,333 277,662,700 12,200/9000

Shareholder information Government RI Public

60.00% 40.00%

Key Indicator in 2nd Transformation Remain Strong ROE 24.40%

25.00%

ROE

24.00% 23.00%

22.10%

22.00%

22.55%

22.23%

22.00%

20.95%

21.00% 20.00%

Jika dilihat dari track record kinerja Bank Mandiri sejak 2009 sd 2014 terlihat Net Interest Margin NIM dari level 5% di 2009 di 2014 menjadi 5,9%. Kenaikan marjin ini tidak terlepas dari strategi Bank Mandiri untuk meningkatkan pendapatan dari Retail Banking, langkah yang dilakukan antara lain dengan meningkatkan Jaringan kantor cabang, EDC, ATM dan Internet Banking, selain pengembangan pasar kredit ritel.

19.00% 2009

2010

Pengembangan retail banking terlihat dari penghasilan yang dikontribusi retail bisnis kepada Bank Mandiri. Pada tahun 2009 pendapatan fee dari kredit ritel, fee dari deposit retail, serta transaksi fee dari sektor ritel terus meningkat. Dari Rp.10,5 T ditahun 2009 menjadi Rp.30,9 Triliun ditahun 2014. Ekspansi kredit ritail dan terus meningkatkan jaringan untuk menjadi Transactional Banking, ikuti dengan kemampuan Bank menurunkan resiko bisnis membuat Bank mandiri berhasil menurunkan NPL nya hingga dilevel dibawah 2% NPL Gross, dan pencadangan NPL Bank Mandiri sudah berada di 150% dari NPL.

2011

2012

2013

2014

EAT Rp.(Miliar) 20,000

10,000

18,204

EAT Rp.(Miliar)

15,000

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2-Oct-98 14-Jul-03

19,872

15,504 12,245

9,218 7,155

5,000 ‐ 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Total Loan Rp.(Miliar) 600,000

472,435 388,830

400,000 300,000

529,973

Total Loan Rp.(Miliar)

500,000 314,381 246,201 198,547

200,000

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Selain ekspansi kepada sektor yang memberikan yield tinggi, Bank Mandiri juga tetap focus meningkatkan CASA dalam total deposit perseroan. Rata-rata diatas total CASA dibandingkan total deposit. Tahun 2014 CASA sebesar 59,8% dari total deposit.

lebih porsi 55% total

100,000 ‐ 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Research Analyst : Muhammad Reza [email protected] 021-57940678 The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of PT.Trust Securities and/or its affiliated companies and /or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liabilities as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue there off. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by PT.Trust Securities or any other person to enter info any agreement with regards to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investment you should make your own independent assessment and seek your professional financial and legal advice.

Page 1

Company Update •

Dari data industri perbankan yang kami olah per September 2014, kinerja Bank Mandiri relative diatas rata-rata performance bank di Indonesia. Dari total kredit yang didistribusikan posisi kredit Bank Mandiri pada urutan no 2 setelah Bank BRI. Berdasarkan pertumbuhan kredit sepanjang tahun 2014 berada di urutan no 3, dengan 8,4%.

700,000

CASA Rp.Miliar

600,000

Total Deposit Rp.Miliar

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Posisi LDR total Loan dengan Deposit Ratio, Ratio Bank Mandiri sebesar 83,4%, Bank BCA sebesar 75,9% dan BRI 85,3%. Hal ini indikasikan bahwa dari sisi Funding Bank Mandiri juga cukup kuat, dengan penambahan cabang, outlet, ATM dan Internet Banking membuat posisi CASA per total Deposit BMRI berada diposisi ke 4 dengan ratio 62,8%, sementara posisi pertama masih dipegang oleh BBCA dengan rasio 76,2%. Dengan besar nya rasio CASA dengan Total Deposit membuat Cost of Fund Bank Mandiri berada di level no 3 terendah yakni sebesar 3,5% diatas BBNI yang cost of fundnya 3,2% dan Bank BCA dilevel 2,6%.

556,342 482,910

500,000 400,000

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636,382

300,000

422,251 319,550

359,957 380,512

362,212 316,127 256,395

186,492 201,958

200,000 100,000 ‐ 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

NPL % 3.00% 2.50%

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NPL Gross Bank Mandiri juga menempati posisi ketiga dari NPL terendah. NPL terendah dipegang oleh BCA dengan NPL 0,7%, NPL Gross dari Bank BNI 46 sebesar 1,4% dan Bank Mandiri 1,7%.

2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50%

Tahun 2015 dengan kinerja dan fundamental yang solid, Manajemen mentargetkan kredit sebesar 15%-17%. Dengan Low Cost Deposit sebesar Rp.435 Triliun. Dengan NIM target > 6,05%, dengan Gross NPL dilevel 2%. Penambahan ATM 2500 unit, Penambahan EDC baru 40,000 unit, Penambahan Micro Outlet 300 unit dan penambahan cabang 50 unit.

NPL % 0.00% 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2012

2013

2014

NIM % 6.20%

Tahun 2015 berdasarkan asumsi tingkat pertumbuhan kredit tahun 2014 dan proyeksi ekonomi Indonesia tahun 2015. Untuk pertumbuhan kredit kami proyeksikan tahun 2015 sebesar 11,5%, dengan NIM tahun 2015 sebesar 6,18%. Dengan total CASA Rp.410 Triliun dengan total deposit tahun 2015 sebesar Rp.647 Triliun. Dengan total gross loan sebesar Rp.583.

6.00% 5.80% 5.60% 5.40% 5.20% 5.00% 4.80%

Valuation

4.60%

NIM %

4.40%

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Dengan kinerja historis dari Bank Mandiri yang terus membaik, serta proyeksi yang selalu dapat dicapai oleh manajemen kami melihat target yang di proyeksikan manajemen Bank Mandiri tahun 2015 sebagian besar kami yakin dapat dicapai. Berdasarkan asumsi-asumsi besaran makro dan data historis emiten ini, kami menggunakan metode Gordon Growth Model dengan ROE 19,5% dan Deviden Payout Ratio 50% harga wajar BMRI tahun 2015 sebesar Rp.13,957/saham atau masih berpotensi naik sebesar 17,29%.

2009

35,000

2010

Fee Income

30,000

Rev From Deposit

25,000

Rev From Loan

9,299 9,823

20,000 9,011

15,000 Menggunakan metode DDM (Dividend Discount Model) dengan menggunakan Risk Free Rate 7,5% dan Perpetuity Growyh 8,75% harga wajar Bank Mandiri sebesar Rp.13,507/ saham. Atau masih berpotensi naik sebesar 13,51% dari harga Rp.11,900/saham. Kami memadukan dua pendekatan ini dengan merata-ratakan hasil dari valuasi diatas menjadi Rp.13,732/saham. masih memberikan potensi kenaikan sebesar 15,39%.

2011

6,283

10,000

3,172

5,000

4,453 2,971

8,773

4,672 4,478 4,065

13,884

5,199

5,297

4,874

5,771

6,763

7,788

‐ 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of PT.Trust Securities and/or its affiliated companies and /or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liabilities as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue there off. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by PT.Trust Securities or any other person to enter info any agreement with regards to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investment you should make your own independent assessment and seek your professional financial and legal advice.

Page 2

Company Update

Bank Mandiri dibandingkan dengan Industry Loan Growth (%)

Total Asset Rp. Bn

NPL Ratio (Gross) %

84.30%

75.90%

85.30%

88.10%

85.70%

90.50%

91.30%

BBCA

BBRI

Mandiri

BBNI

Panin

Permata

Danamon

Total Deposit Rp.bn

5.00%

800,000

BII

BTN

BII

Danamon

BBCA

BBNI

Panin

Cimb Niaga

Mandiri

BBRI

0.00% BTN

Danamon

0% Permata

BTN

Panin

50.00% 0.50%

91.10%

100.00%

1.60%

2%

BII

Permata

BBNI

Cimb …

106,324

BBCA

109,180

97,038

110,538

BBRI

6.00% 6.00% 5.90%

108.50%

6.70%

4% 129,817

160,359

‐ Mandiri

150.00%

7.80%

6% 253,840

100,000

330,709

451,842

600,000

Low Cost Deposit Ratio %

544,272

533,085

296,069 BBNI

432,024

162,080

136,714 Permata

Cimb Niaga

120,602

113,240

Panin

95,233

BBRI

BBCA

Mandiri

Danamon

BII

BTN

BBCA

Mandiri

Permata

BBRI

BBNI

Panin

Cimb Niaga

BII

‐ BTN

BII

BTN

Panin

Permata

Danamon

Cimb Niaga

BBNI

BBCA

BBRI

200,000

100,309

0.70%

1.40%

1.70%

1.90%

2.20%

2.00%

2.50%

3.40%

1.00%

400,000

0.00% Mandiri

‐

2.00%

2.60%

137,154

142,428

160,648

185,091

161,929

385,726

202,645

683,212

200,000

3.00% 527,066

703,625

400,000

4.90%

4.00%

600,000

Danamon

200,000

464,194

300,000

8.40%

8%

Cimb Niaga

10%

400,000

Loan To Deposit Ratio (%)

10% 9.50%

94.50%

Total Loans Rp.(Bn) 500,000

Cost Of Funds P.A %

80.00%

6.80%

6.30%

6.00%

5.70%

3.80% BBRI

5.40%

3.50%

3.20%

2.00%

Permata

BTN

Panin

BII

Danamon

Cimb Niaga

BBNI

BBCA

BBCA

Panin

BBNI

BBRI

Mandiri

BTN

Cimb Niaga

Danamon

BII

0.00% Permata

0.00%

Mandiri

4.00% 2.60%

76.20%

64.30%

63.00%

62.80%

48.20%

45.60%

43.10%

39.30%

30.10%

20.00%

53.30%

6.00%

40.00%

7.10%

8.00% 60.00%

Valuation VALUATION - GORDON GROWTH

Weighted Average Cost of Capital 2015E

Equity Loan Quality adjustments : Bank Only Provision +/+ NPL -/C ategory 2 Loan -/- (50%) IBRA Loan Total Loan Outstanding -/Provision -/Adjusted Equity (Rp. Billion)

119,018

2,369 (12,832) 108,555

No.of Share (million) BVPS adj BVPS Gordon Growth Model a. Normalized ROE b. Dividend Payout ratio c. Normalized growth d. Risk Free rate (5 year govt bond yield) e. Equity Risk Premium f. Assigned Beta g. Required rate of Return (discount Rate)

C urrent Price (Rp. per share): Upside Potential:

2015F 3.16% (29,239) 694,060 25%

2016F 3.20% (32,608) 763,467 25%

2017F 3.24% (36,317) 839,813 25%

2018F 3.24% (39,856) 923,794 25%

Cost of Equity (Ke) Equity Assumed risk free rate (Rf) Beta Equity Premium

12.00% 119,018 7.50% 1.0 4.50%

12.00% 137,865 7.50% 1.0 4.50%

12.00% 160,478 7.50% 1.0 4.50%

12.00% 190,190 7.50% 1.0 4.50%

12.00% 219,998 7.50% 1.0 4.50%

12.00% 253,390 7.50% 1.0 4.50%

4.45%

4.55%

4.65%

4.73%

4.80%

5.74%

2015F 303

2016F 343

2017F 409

2018F 507

2019F 555

12.0% 1 0.89 271

12.0% 2 0.80 274

12.0% 3 0.71 291

12.0% 4 0.64 322

12.0% 5 0.57 315

2020F 617 20,658 12.0% 6 0.51 12,035

WACC

2019F 2020F 3.24% 4.32% (43,870) (48,335) 1,016,174 1,117,791 25% 0%

23,333 5,100.8 4,652.4

VALUATION - DIVIDEND DISCOUNT

( a x (1-b) )

19.5% 50.0% 9.8%

( d + [e x f] )

7.50% 5.0% 1.1 13.0%

Int Value to FY 2015F Adjusted Book Value (x) ( [a - c] : [g - c] ) Intrinsic Value (Rp. per share):

Cost of Debt (Kd) Interest exp Interest Bearing Liabilities Tax rate

3.00 13,957 11,900 17.29%

Assumed Perpetuity Growth

Dividend Per Share (Rp) Perpetuity value (Rp) Discount rate Year Discount factor PV of Dividend & Terminal Value, Rp Intrinsic Value (Rp. per Share) Current Price (Rp. per Share) Upside Potential:

8.75%

13,507 11,900 13.51%


Page 3

Company Update

Balance Sheet , Profit & Loss, Ratio INCOME STATEMENT Dec 31 Interest income Interest expense Net interest income growth (%) Non interest income Total operating income growth (%) G&A expenses Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Total operating exp growth (%) Preprovision opr profit Provisions Profit before tax growth (%) Taxes Minority interest&others Net Profit growth (%)

BALANCE SHEET As at Dec 31 Assets Cash Placement at BI Due from Other bank Mkt. securities Gross loan Loan provision Net loan Government bond Fixed assets Others Total Assets Liabilities Demand deposits Saving deposits Time deposits Borrowings&Sub debt Others Minority Equity Total liability & Equity BREAKDOWN As at Dec 31 Earning assetsbank Gross loans Government bonds Mkt.securities&SBI Others earning assets Total earning assets % compositon Gross loans Government bonds Others earning assets Third party funding Demand deposits Saving deposits Time deposits Total deposits % composition Demand deposits Saving deposits Time deposits

2012 42,550 (15,020) 27,531 54.3% 11,008 38,538 15% (8,046) (8,254) (2,613) (18,913) 14% 19,625 879 20,504 19% (4,641) 393 16,257 15%

2013 50,209 (16,399) 33,809 22.8% 12,276 46,086 19.6% (9,431) (9,898) (3,204) (22,534) 19.1% 23,552 510 24,062 17.4% (5,232) (834) 17,996 10.7%

2014 62,638 (23,506) 39,132 15.7% 12,220 51,352 11.4% (10,848) (11,448) (3,078) (25,374) 12.6% 25,978 30 26,008 8.1% (5,353) 828 21,483 19.4%

2015F 79,522 (29,239) 50,283 28.5% 12,558 62,652 22.0% (11,904) (13,157) (3,759) (28,820) 13.6% 33,832 (2,369) 31,463 21.0% (7,866) ‐ 23,597 9.8%

2016F 92,613 (32,608) 60,005 19.3% 14,631 72,667 16.0% (13,807) (14,533) (4,360) (32,700) 13.5% 39,967 (4,368) 35,598 13.1% (8,900) ‐ 26,699 13.1%

2017F 106,189 (36,317) 69,872 16.4% 17,100 82,939 14.1% (15,758) (15,551) (4,976) (36,286) 11.0% 46,653 (4,210) 42,443 19.2% (10,611) ‐ 31,832 19.2%

2018F 121,821 (39,856) 81,965 17.3% 20,044 95,570 15.2% (17,203) (16,247) (5,734) (39,184) 8.0% 56,386 (3,819) 52,567 23.9% (13,142) ‐ 39,425 23.9%

2019F 134,194 (43,870) 90,324 10.2% 23,564 104,632 9.5% (18,834) (17,787) (6,278) (42,899) 9.5% 61,733 (4,205) 57,528 9.4% (14,382) ‐ 43,146 9.4%

2012

2013

2014

2015F

2016F

2017F

2018F

2019F

15,482 38,272 57,884 20,324 384,582 (14,011) 370,570 79,072 7,003 47,007 635,619

19,052 43,904 59,150 26,803 467,170 (16,536) 450,635 82,227 7,646 43,678 733,100

20,705 50,599 70,101 40,465 523,102 (17,707) 505,395 86,154 8,929 72,637 855,040

23,514 56,433 77,595 42,324 583,259 (16,752) 566,506 94,054 9,902 70,122 940,544

26,335 63,205 86,906 47,403 653,250 (19,039) 634,211 105,341 11,064 78,838 1,053,409

28,969 69,525 95,597 52,144 744,704 (23,135) 721,570 115,875 12,440 62,515 1,158,750

31,866 76,477 105,157 57,358 834,069 (24,386) 809,683 101,970 13,020 78,966 1,274,625

35,052 84,125 115,672 63,094 934,157 (30,458) 903,699 112,167 13,738 74,399 1,402,087

113,908 183,970 144,960 16,747 84,716 1,175 74,580 635,619

123,428 216,018 169,551 20,463 100,627 1,371 87,419 733,100

128,054 231,461 223,934 27,974 119,231 2,187 102,658 855,040

119,811 291,433 236,384 34,824 127,465 ‐ 119,018 940,544

130,594 317,662 257,659 43,164 152,077 ‐ 137,865 1,053,409

142,348 346,251 280,848 52,774 158,459 ‐ 160,478 1,158,750

155,159 377,414 306,125 63,823 160,641 ‐ 190,190 1,274,625

169,123 411,381 333,676 76,495 165,915 ‐ 219,998 1,402,087

2012 384,582 79,072 58,596 52,608 574,858

2013 467,170 82,227 70,707 42,388 662,493

2014 523,102 86,154 91,064 74,432 774,752

2015F 583,259 94,054 98,757 76,157 852,227

2016F 653,250 105,341 110,608 85,296 954,494

2017F 744,704 115,875 121,669 67,696 1,049,944

2018F 834,069 101,970 133,836 85,064 1,154,938

2019F 934,157 112,167 147,219 76,889 1,270,432

66.90 13.76 9.15

70.52 12.41 6.40

67.52 11.12 9.61

68.44 11.04 8.94

68.44 11.04 8.94

70.93 11.04 6.45

72.22 8.83 7.37

73.53 8.83 6.05

113,908 183,970 144,960 442,838

123,428 216,018 169,551 508,996

128,054 231,461 223,934 583,449

119,811 291,433 236,384 647,628

130,594 317,662 257,659 705,915

142,348 346,251 280,848 769,447

155,159 377,414 306,125 838,697

169,123 411,381 333,676 914,180

25.72 41.54 32.73

24.25 42.44 33.31

21.95 39.67 38.38

18.50 45.00 36.50

18.50 45.00 36.50

18.50 45.00 36.50

18.50 45.00 36.50

18.50 45.00 36.50


Page 4

Company Update

Research Team Muhammad Reza Head Of Research Sector Coverage : Banking, F & B, Mining. Telp :6221 - 57940678 Ext .431 Fax :6221 - 57940676 Email :[email protected]

Lailan Natasya Putri Research Analyst Sector Coverage : Telecomunication, Property, Cement Telp :6221 - 57940678 Ext .364 Fax :6221 - 57940676

Urip Mulyo Santoso Research Support Telp :6221 - 57940678 Ext .411 Fax :6221 - 57940676 Email :[email protected]

Danang Narasworo Junior Research Analyst Sector Coverage : Pharmaceutical, Construction Telp :6221 - 57940678 Ext .443 Fax :6221 - 57940676 Email :[email protected]

Puspa Rini Senior Equity Sales Telp :6221 - 57940678 ext.128 Fax :6221 - 57940676 Email :[email protected]

Dewi (Aling) Branch Manager Medan Telp :061 - 4555139 Fax :061 - 4555204 Email :[email protected]

Wayan Sudiartha Branch Manager Pluit Telp :6221 - 66 675018-22 Fax :6221 - 66 675022 Email :[email protected]

Nesya Kharismawati Senior Institusional Equity Sales Telp :6221 - 57940678 Ext.166 Fax :6221 - 57940676 Email :[email protected]


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Indonesia Equity Research

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