Riset Ekuitas Flash Note Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Marjin 3Q16 yang sangat luar biasa
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS (Rp Billions) 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F Sales Revenue 3.917 4.394 4.669 5.452 6.370 EBITDA 467 797 986 896 774 Net Profit 291 519 683 621 534 EPS (Rp) 101 180 236 215 185 EPS Growth (%) -10% 78% 32% -9% -14% PER (x) 47,1 26,4 20,1 22,1 25,7 PBV (x) 6,1 4,9 3,9 3,3 3,0 P/Sales (x) 3,5 3,1 2,9 2,5 2,2 Net-DER (%) -17,8% -25,8% -35,5% -38,6% -38,6% ROE (%) 13,6% 20,5% 21,8% 16,4% 12,2% Sumber: Perusahaan, Sucorinvest Research (Harga saham per 31 Oktober 2016)
INDONESIA CONSUMER Stock Data Bloomberg Ticker Outs. Share (bn) Mkt Cap (T IDR) 52 Week Range (IDR) 6M Avg Val (IDR bn) YTD Returns (%) Beta (x)
ULTJ IJ Equity 2.89 13.7 3,480-5,000 0.53 20.4% 0.49
Share Price Performance 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500
Oct-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
3,000 Feb-16
Upgrade penghasilan berkat turunnya pembelanjaan A&P-masih merekomendasi BELI untuk jangka panjang Kami meng-upgrade penghasilan FY16E sebesar 15% berkat pembelanjaan A&P yang lebih rendah, sementara perkiraan angka penghasilan FY17E tidak berubah. Kami juga mempertahankan harga target yang datang dari PER FY17E yaitu Rp5.400/saham. Kami tetap menyukai saham ini melihat besarnya dana tunai yang dipegang, kualitas penghasilan tinggi, ekspansi ke industri hulu pengolahan susu (yang sejalan dengan visi jangka panjang pemerintah untuk swasembada pangan), dan struktur permintaan domestik yang relatif bisa diperkirakan dalam hal konsumsi UHT, seperti yang telah dibahas di laporan kami (24 Okt). ULTJ saat ini diperdagangkan pada PER (SCOR) FY17E sebesar 22x, konsensus 19x-nilai valuasi yang sangat wajar untuk "sapi perah" kualitas tinggi ini, menurut kami. Tetap BELI.
Rp4,750 Rp5,400 13.7%
1 November 2016
Dec-15
... namun ULTJ tetap mampu mencatat kinerja marjin yang sangat baik GPM ULTJ di 3Q16 menyentuh titik tertinggi dalam sejarah di angka 37%, didorong oleh harga bahan mentah yang masih bersahabat dan IDRUSD QoQ yang tidak bergerak (Rp13.130/USD). ULTJ memanfaatkan harga susu bubuk impor yang rendah, mengikuti kebiasaan perusahaan menimbun pasokan satu hingga dua kuartal di depan (harga olahan susu global di 1Q16-2Q16 sangat lemah di bawah AS$2.000/ton) berdasarkan pengamatan kami. Sebagai tambahan, pembelanjaan iklan dan promosi (A&P) sebagai persentase pendapatan di 3Q16 tidak terlalu signifikan yaitu 0.6%, yang menyediakan dukungan materi untuk marjin keseluruhan (OPM 3Q16 26%, titik tertinggi dalam sejarah). Menurut analisa kami, pembelanjaan A&P umumnya naik 4Q-kemungkinan mengikuti permintaan konsumen yang lebih kuat dengan datangnya musim liburan-proyeksi kami pembelanjaan A&P akan menjadi ~7% dari pendapatan di 4Q16, menutup tahun di angka 5.5% dari total pendapatan.
Current price Price target Upside/Downside
Oct-15
3Q16 terlihat sebagai kuartal yang menantang untuk mendorong volum... Perusahaan mencatat pendapatan Rp1.1tn selama 3Q16 (-4% QoQ, +6% YoY), di mana pertumbuhan YoY sebagian besar didukung oleh kenaikan harga 4.5% pada produk olahan susu di akhir Juni (ULTJ menjaga harga stabil sepanjang tahun 2015). Harga produk-produk teh sejauh ini juga dijaga tidak berubah. Tentang volum, tidak bisa terlalu dijabarkan karena cara perusahaan melaporkan keuangan, namun menurut kami pertumbuhan volum 3Q16 untuk olahan susu terhitung lemah, baik QoQ maupun YoY (kemungkinan pertumbuhan satu angka, di kisaran bawah), sementara volum teh masih bisa menyeret agregat pertumbuhan volum makin jauh ke bawah. Menurut pernyataan ULTJ per segmen, berdasarkan VAT-kotor, pendapatan minuman (produk UHT yang mencakup olahan susu dan teh) turun sebesar 4% QoQ (+4% YoY), sementara pendapatan makanan (non-UHT, yang terdiri dari susu kental) turun sebesar 2% QoQ (YoY tidak terlalu berarti).
BUY
Nov-15
Penghasilan hampir mencapai prakiraan penuh tahun; angka kinerja kuat Ultrajaya (ULTJ IJ) melaporkan hasil kinerja 9M16 yang kuat, mencatat laba bersih Rp546bn (+39% YoY), mewakili 92%/90% dari baik proyeksi kami maupun proyeksi konsensus FY. Pendapatan periode ini Rp3.5tn (+5% YoY), mewakili 74%/69% berturutturut dari proyeksi kami dan konsensus. Dana tunai 9M16 mencapai angka Rp1.4tn, jauh di atas proyeksi kami Rp1.3tn untuk sepanjang tahun. FCF solid di angka Rp596bn.
Share Performance (%) Month Absolute Relative 3m 13.4 12.5 6m 13.5 1.1 12m 18.8 -2.6
STANLEY LIONG
[email protected] +62 21 8067 3130
SHIRLEY SAROINSONG
[email protected] +62 21 8067 3139
Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading 1 Nov 2016
Fig 1
ULTJ’s 3Q16 performance has been stellar due to inventory effect, FX, and much lower A&P spending
ULTJ IJ Revenue Gross Profit EBIT Pre-Tax Profit Net Profit Gross Margin EBIT Margin Pre-Tax Margin Net Margin
Unit Rp bn Rp bn Rp bn Rp bn Rp bn
3Q15 1.089 341 204 221 169
2Q16 1.200 421 163 175 135
3Q16 1.156 423 303 326 246
(%) (%) (%) (%)
31% 19% 20% 16%
35% 14% 15% 11%
37% 26% 28% 21%
% QoQ -4% 0% 86% 86% 82%
% YoY 6% 24% 49% 48% 45%
9M15 3.275 1.023 483 517 394
9M16 3.453 1.191 662 719 546
31% 15% 16% 12%
34% 19% 21% 16%
% YoY 5% 16% 37% 39% 39%
SCOR FY16E 4.669 1.557 754 788 596
% to SCOR 74% 76% 88% 91% 92%
33% 16% 17% 13%
Source: Company, Sucorinvest Research
Fig 2
Table summary of our earnings changes for ULTJ Old
FY16E New
P&L (Rp bn) Revenue Gross Profit EBITDA Net Profit
4.669 1.557 871 596
4.669 1.557 986 683
Profitability (%) Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin
33% 19% 13%
33% 21% 15%
FY17E New
% Change
Old
0,0% 0,0% 13,2% 14,5%
5.452 1.587 896 618
5.452 1.587 896 621
29% 16% 11%
29% 16% 11%
% Change 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,4%
Source: Company, Sucorinvest Research
2
Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading 1 Nov 2016
Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading (ULTJ IJ) Current Price (Rp/Share):
Financial Year Ending 31 Dec Profit & Loss Statement 2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
4.394
4.669
5.452
6.370
Cost of Sales
(3.011)
(3.112)
(3.865)
(4.737)
Gross Profit
1.382
1.557
1.587
1.633
Minority Interest
SG&A Expenses
(730)
(689)
(819)
(992)
Oper. Profit
653
869
768
EBITDA
797
986
896
34
31
49
62
Capex
Revenue
Net Interest:
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
Net Profit
519
683
621
534
Dep. & Amort.
144
118
127
133
6
(1)
(2)
0
Others
(40)
13
(8)
(6)
641
Changes in NWC
(33)
(22)
(137)
(196)
774
CF from Oper.
596
791
602
466
(301)
(232)
(255)
(266)
Int. Income
36
36
53
67
Others
Int. Expense
(2)
(5)
(5)
(5)
CF Investing
FX Gain (Loss) Equity in Investees Others - Net Pre-Tax Profit Inc. Tax - Net Minority Interest Net Profit
4.750
Cash Flow Statement
16
(44)
(1)
6
(285)
(276)
(256)
(260)
(0)
(7)
(8)
(7)
Change in Debt
48
1
-
(6)
(26)
(23)
(24)
(24)
S-T Borrowings
(7)
16
-
(1)
40
33
36
36
Dividends Paid
-
-
-
-
701
903
820
709
Issuance & Others
7
(0)
(0)
(0)
(178)
(222)
(201)
(174)
CF Financing
49
17
(0)
(8)
(4)
1
2
(0)
Cash Reclass.
-
-
-
-
519
683
621
534
Change in Cash
360
532
345
198
Beg. Balance
489
849
1.381
1.726
End. Balance
849
1.381
1.726
1.924
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
Balance Sheet
Key Ratios 2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
Cash & Equiv.
849
1.381
1.726
1.924
Receivables
448
473
553
646
Gross Margin (%)
31,5%
33,3%
29,1%
25,6%
Inventory - Net
739
730
872
1.069
Oper. Margin (%)
14,9%
18,6%
14,1%
10,1%
68
68
68
68
EBITDA Mgn. (%)
18,1%
21,1%
16,4%
12,2%
Current Assets
2.104
2.652
3.219
3.706
Net Margin (%)
11,8%
14,6%
11,4%
8,4%
Fixed Assets
1.161
1.275
1.402
1.536
26,4
20,1
22,1
25,7
4,9
3,9
3,3
3,0
16,3
12,7
13,6
15,4
Others
Other LT Assets
Margins
Valuations
276
323
329
327
LT Assets
1.436
1.598
1.731
1.862
P/E (x)
Total Assets
3.540
4.250
4.950
5.569
P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Curr. Maturities
25
26
26
ST Borrowings
3
19
19
18
Gearing/Liquidity
Trade Payables
367
375
466
571
Interest Cover. (x)
282,52
175,97
155,65
136,76
Other Liabilities
167
154
148
137
ND/Equity (x)
-0,26
-0,36
-0,39
-0,39
Curr. Liab.
562
574
659
750
ND/Tot. Cap. (x)
-0,25
-0,34
-0,37
-0,37
LT Debt
100
100
100
95
Current Ratio (x)
3,75
4,62
4,88
4,94
81
98
94
92
Quick Ratio (x)
2,43
3,35
3,56
3,51
LT Liabilities
181
198
194
187
Total Liabilities
743
772
853
938
ROA (%)
16,1%
17,5%
13,5%
10,2%
Paid-Up Capital
578
578
578
578
ROE (%)
20,5%
21,8%
16,4%
12,2%
Paid-In Excess
51
51
51
51
ROCE (%)
22,3%
24,0%
18,1%
13,4%
Treasury Stock
-
-
-
-
Earnings Yld. (%)
3,8%
5,0%
4,5%
3,9%
Others
2.169
2.850
3.468
4.002
Dividend Yield (%)
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
Total Equity
2.798
3.478
4.097
4.631
Total Liab. & SHE
3.540
4.250
4.950
5.569
Other Liabilities
25
Profitability
All figures in IDR billion unless noted. Source: Company, Sucorinvest Research, October 2016
3
Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading 1 Nov 2016
Sucorinvest rating definition, analysts’ certification, and important disclosure
Ratings for Sectors Overweight Neutral Underweight
: We expect the industry to perform better than the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months. : We expect the industry to perform in line with the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months. : We expect the industry to underperform the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months
Ratings for Stocks Buy Hold Sell
: We expect this stock to give return (excluding dividend) of above 10% over the next 12 months. : We expect this stock to give return of between -10% and 10% over the next 12 months. : We expect this stock to give return of -10% or lower over the next 12 months
Analyst Certification The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. The research analyst(s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Disclaimers This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell any securities. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani and its directors, officials and/or employees may have positions in, and may affect transactions in securities mentioned herein from time to time in the open market or otherwise, and may receive brokerage fees or act as principal or agent in dealings with respect to these companies. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani may also seek investment banking business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
4
Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading 1 Nov 2016
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Research 1. Stanley Liong 2. Alexander Budiman 3. Erni Marsella Siahaan 4. Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi 5. Adina Layarda 6. Felicia Putri Tjiasaka 7. Sandy Ham 8. Putri Kinanty Siregar 9. Shirley Saroinsong
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