SpesiFIXED Multi Finance 22 April 2016
Toyota Astra Financial Services (TAFS) Stronger than the market Company rating Pefindo Fitch
idAA+/Stable AAA (idn) /Stable
Shareholders PT Astra International Tbk. Toyota Financial Services Corporation
50% 50%
Outstanding IDR bonds Bond ID
Size Rpbn
Maturity
Coupon %
TAFS03B
700
17-May-16
7.60
TAFS01ACN2
698
21-Jun-16
8.50
TAFS01ACN3
170
16-Nov-16
8.75
TAFS01BCN1
512
13-Feb-17
10.50
TAFS03C
100
17-May-17
7.65
TAFS01BCN2
811
11-Jun-18
9.25
TAFS01BCN3
1,498
6-Nov-18
9.50
Trading summary Bond ID
Last Trade
TAFS03B
Last Price
Yield (%)
19-Feb-16
99.5
9.7
TAFS01ACN2
7-Apr-16
100.3
7.0
TAFS01ACN3
19-Nov-15
100.0
8.7
TAFS01BCN1
5-Apr-16
102.2
7.8
TAFS03C
15-Jan-15
95.5
9.8
TAFS01BCN2
18-Apr-16
101.5
8.5
TAFS01BCN3
15-Apr-16
101.6
8.8
Bond Valuation New TAFS bond series issuances might be at the upper range coupon Currently TAFS plans to issue two new bond series with 1-yr and 3-yrs tenors and is targeting to issue Rp1.5 trillion. Book building period is 21 April - 03 May 2016, with offering coupon range of 7.6 – 8.2% for 1-yr tenor and 8.3– 8.8% for 3-yrs. Looking at the fair risk premium of TAFS bonds, which we estimate at 142bps, and the current yield curve, thus the new bonds will be attractive if they give coupon rates of 8.3% and 8.6% respectively – or at the upper range of offering coupon rate.
Key credit considerations: Strong position in Toyota car financing. TAFS’s market share (Company’s new booking as a percentage of Toyota's sales) in 2015 increased significantly to 20% from last year's position of 17%, resulting in TAFS's new booking having decreased by just 5.4%YoY to 65,195 units, stronger than the domestic automotive sales, which decreased 16%YoY. Starting 2015, TAFS opens new branches in Manado and Makassar to enter the East Indonesia market for wider market coverage. Given the good relationship with Toyota dealers and Astra Toyota dealerships across the archipelago, we view that TAFS's performance is still promising through increasing its market share in Toyota car financing. Sound asset quality. TAFS’s asset quality remains favorable with non-performing financing (NPF) maintained at a low level of 0.8% as of Dec15, lower than the industry average of 1.45%. Meanwhile, the coverage ratio is still high enough to cover its NPF at around 174%. Given its proper risk management, prudent credit policy, and good customer profile (middle-up segment with well-established financial condition), TAFS’s asset quality should remain strong going forward. Sound financial performance. TAFS booked strong total income of Rp1.8 trillion (19.2%YoY) and net interest income of Rp844 billion (22.1%YoY) in 2015. Meanwhile, day to day operation is still maintained efficiently as cost to income ratio (CIR) was decreased to 30.6% from average of 34% in the past five years and resulting in net profit having increased by 10.5%YoY to Rp306 billion. Strong support from the shareholders. As a subsidiary of Astra International, TAFS has a strong relationship with Auto 2000 (authorized dealer of Toyota). TAFS has the privilege to place its marketing representatives in all Auto 2000 branches. This should support TAFS’s position as a dominant player in Toyota car financing. In terms of liquidity issue, Toyota Financial Services Corporation has provided TAFS with funding support as well as facilitated access to Japanese banks.
Credit Outlook - Stable
Ali Hasanudin +6221-5296- 9629
[email protected]
We have a stable credit view on TAFS given its strong position and ability to maintain good asset quality profile despite of stiff competition. As a subsidiary of Astra International, TAFS has a strong relationship with Auto 2000 (authorized dealer of Toyota) and has the privilege to place its marketing representatives in all Auto 2000 branches. This should support TAFS’s position as a dominant player in Toyota car financing. Key risks: deteriorating profitability due to slowdown in automotive sales and tighter competition in the industry. Meanwhile, TAFS's capital structure is the weakest in our portfolio, considering its gearing ratio is the highest at 6.6x compared to an average of 5x in our portfolio. Please see important disclosure at the back of this report
Toyota Astra Financial Services (TAFS) | 22 April 2016
Recent developments: TAFS performs stronger than the market TAFS's new financing only dropped by 4.4% YoY to Rp9.8 trillion in 2015 with total new booking of 65,195units (-5.4%YoY), showing that TAFS performs better than the domestic car sales and Toyota sales which in 2015 dropped by 16.9%YoY and 19.3%YoY respectively amidst economy slowdown. This achievement was mainly from higher market share (Company’s new booking as a percentage of Toyotas sales) that increased significantly to 20% from last year's position of 17%. FIGURE 1. TOYOTA MARKET SHARE Domestic car sales Car ('000 units) 1,400
Toyota
800
Toyota market share (RHS) % 56
1,230
48
1,013 37 765
36
406
35
435
311
281
33
400
32
322
2012
2013
2014
62
20
16 48
55
17
20
65 15
32
60
24
40
10
20
5
47
14
13
16
-
2011
% 25
69 17
8
200 2010
TAFS shares of Toyota sales (RHS)
80
40
894 35
600 400
TAFS newbooking Car ('000 units) 100
1,208
1,116
1,200 1,000
FIGURE 2. TAFS NEWBOOKING AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOYOTA SALES INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY TO 20% IN 2015
-
-
2015
2010
Source: GAIKINDO
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: GAIKINDO, Company
TAFS booked strong total income of Rp2.2 trillion (19.2%YoY) and net interest income of Rp844 billion (22.1%YoY). Meanwhile, day to day operation was still maintained efficiently, as CIR (cost to income ratio) went down to 30.6% from 33.9% in 2014, with operating expense growing by just 7.2%YoY to Rp302 billion. However, we saw higher provision as allowance expense increased by 75.3%YoY to Rp194 billion. Thus, net profit grew slower by just 10.5%YoY to Rp306billion. FIGURE 3. TAFS NEW FINANCING TREND Rp billion 12,000
New financing
FIGURE 4. TAFS REVENUE TREND YoY% 120
YoY 10,297 9,368
10,000
9,844
8,255 8,000
6,747 59.3
100 80
7,044
Rp billion 2,400 2,000
17.2
13.5
4.4
20 9.9 (4.4)
-
0 -20
2010
Source: Company
1,824
1,276
40
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YoY% 100 80
1,551
1,600 1,200
4,000
Growth YoY (RHS) 2,174
60
6,000
2,000
Total Income
984
1,404
60
42
40
800
30 19
18
400
20
10
10
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Company
Page 2 of 9
Toyota Astra Financial Services (TAFS) | 22 April 2016
FIGURE 5. NET INTEREST INCOME GREW SIGNIFICANTLY BY 22.1%YOY IN 2015 Rp billion 1,000
Net interest income
% 10
NIM (RHS)
FIGURE 6. DAY TO DAY OPERATION STILL MAINTAINED EFFICIENTLY; CIR (COST TO INCOME RATIO) IS DOWN TO 30.6% Rp billion 500
Opex
CIR (RHS)
% 50
844 800 600
8
691 6.1
5.4
300
4
200
200
2
100
0
-
2011
2012
2013
2014
34.6
33.9 282
302 30.6
30
261
203
400
2010
36.9 250
5.4
5.0
399
40
39.6 36.1
6
5.9
497 5.8
400
648
608
2015
173
10 0 2010
Source: Company
20
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Company
Asset quality remains favorable with non-performing financing (NPF) relatively flat at 0.8% vs. 0.7% in Dec14, lower than our portfolio average of 1.2% and far below the industry average of 1.45%. Meanwhile, write-off to financing ratio is also low at 0.9% compared to our portfolio at 3.7%. Given its proper risk management, prudent credit policy, and good customer profile (middle-up segment with well-established financial condition), TAFS’s asset quality should remain strong going forward. FIGURE 7. NET PROFIT STILL GROWING Netprofit
Rp billion 350 300
ROAE (RHS)
% 25
18.7
20.7 243
277
265
20
17.2 15.7
200
Coverage ratio (LHS) Provision bal./ Financing receivable
306
22.2
250
FIGURE 8. ASSET QUALITY REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH NONPERFORMING FINANCING (NPF) RELATIVELY FLAT AT 0.8%
172
15.1
15
152 150
10
NPF Write off/ Financing receivable
% 350
% 1.5
300
1.3
250
1.1
200
0.8
150
100 5 50
100
0.7
0.7 0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
50 0
2010
Source: Company
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0.9
-
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Company
Leverage level slightly improved to 6.6x vs. 7.6x in Dec14. However, TAFS's capital structure is the weakest in our portfolio, considering its gearing ratio is the highest compared to an average of 5.2x in our portfolio due to no joint financing scheme in TAFS’s service assets.
Page 3 of 9
Toyota Astra Financial Services (TAFS) | 22 April 2016
FIGURE 9. LEVERAGE LEVEL SLIGHTLY IMPROVED TO 6.6X
Rp bn.
GR (x) 9.0 8.0
FIGURE 10. TAFS INTEREST BEARING ASSETS & LIABILITIES' MATURITY PROFILE
7.9
8.0
Debt assets maturity profile
< 1Yr
1 - 2 Yr
> 2 Yr
Total
Financing receivables-gross
8,772
5,783
4,782
19,337
Borrowings & securities issued
7,086
3,605
4,813
15,504
Net
1,686
2,178
(31)
3,833
7.6 7.0
7.0
6.6
7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 2010
Source: Company
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Company
For the year 2016, we expect TAFS's new-booking will rebound to a 4% growth. We view the positive growth is still achievable, as the Company will have several supporting factors in 2016 such as: (1) the Company has been allowed to finance non-Toyota cars, thus is starting to penetrate into selective non Toyota brands; (2) in 2016 there will be new product launches by Toyota, such as new Fortuner, new Innova, new Agya seven seater; (3) the new brands of seven seaters in Toyota that target the market segment between Avanza & Innova; and (4) better economy condition (the economy growth rebounds to 5% from 4.7% in 2015), lower fuel price (subsidized fuel) at Rp6,550 from Rp7,500 per liter, lower reference rate (BI rate) from 7.5% in 2015 to 6.75% (as of March15), and lower inflation from average of 6.38% last year to 4.37%. In regards of increasing the growth back to positive growth rate, there will be several strategies that the Company will implement in 2016. The strategies are as follows: 1)Focus on customer retention by utilizing the existing customer database and attempting to retain existing customers; 2) Focus on wholesale business by developing sales RBF (for small and medium enterprises) as well as optimizing fleet sales (minimum 30 vehicles for corporations); 3) Dealer financing, starting in January 2016 TAFS cooperates with Toyota to provide funding (loans) for authorized Toyota dealers in the form of working capital facility in regards of procurement for car inventories. This should open a new opportunity for TAFS, besides giving support to the dealers, and then TAFS should be able to achieve its sales target in 2016; 4) Branchless concept, developing business with IT Support so the Company can reach new locations without having to open a branch there.
TAFS Bonds: The 2.5-yrs TAFS01BCN3 gave attractive valuation As of March 2016, the total outstanding TAFS bonds in the secondary market is at Rp4,489 billion, consisting of seven series, with Rp1,568 billion that will be mature in 2016. The shortest tenor was TAFS03B (issued in May-2013), which will be mature on 17 May-2016 with a size of Rp700 billion, while the longest tenor was for the 2.5-yrs TAFS01BCN3 (issued in Nov-2015) with a size of Rp1,498 billion. According to the latest trading data in IDX, on average TAFS bonds offer a risk premium of 142bps above government bond yield with the same tenors. They look unattractive compared with our fair risk premium calculation for AAA bond category, which gives a premium of 152bps. However, the 2.5-yrs TAFS01BCN3 gave attractive valuation, as it traded at 101.6 and yielded 8.7% on its last transaction on 15 Apr16, which implied 156bps of risk premium over risk-free rate; this is very attractive compared with the average risk premium of the last 10 transactions at 111bps.
Page 4 of 9
Toyota Astra Financial Services (TAFS) | 22 April 2016
New TAFS bond series issuances might be at the upper range coupon Currently TAFS plans to issue two new bond series with 1-yr and 3-yrs tenors and is targeting to issue Rp1.5 trillion. Book building period is 21 April - 03 May 2016, with offering coupon range of 7.6 – 8.2% for 1-yr tenor and 8.3– 8.8% for 3-yrs. Looking at the fair risk premium of TAFS bonds, which we estimate at 142bps, and the current yield curve, thus the new bonds will be attractive if they give coupon rates of 8.3% and 8.6% respectively – or at the upper range of offering coupon rate. FIGURE 11. TAFS OUTSTANDING BONDS Par Value (Rp bn)
Coupon (%)
Maturity Date
Last trade
Yield (%)
Risk premium over risk free (Bps)
99.5
9.7
n.a
100.3
7.0
n.a
8.7
n.a
Bond s ID
Bonds name
Last price
TAFS03B
Bonds III 2013 Series B
700
7.60
17-May-16
19-Feb-16
TAFS01ACN2
Continuance bonds I Phase II 2015 Series A
698
8.50
21-Jun-16
7-Apr-16
TAFS01ACN3
Continuance bonds I Phase III 2015 Series A
170
8.75
16-Nov-16
19-Nov-15
100.0
TAFS01BCN1
Continuance bonds I Phase I 2014 Series B
512
10.50
13-Feb-17
5-Apr-16
102.2
7.8
n.a
TAFS03C
Bonds III 2013 Series C
100
7.65
17-May-17
15-Jan-15
95.5
9.8
243
TAFS01BCN2
Continuance bonds I Phase II 2015 Series B
811
9.25
11-Jun-18
18-Apr-16
101.5
8.5
128
TAFS01BCN3
Continuance bonds I Phase III 2015 Series B
1,498
9.50
6-Nov-18
15-Apr-16
101.6
8.8
156
Average risk premium of TAFS bonds for the last 3 months transactions
142
Source: IDX, Mandiri Sekuritas estimate
FIGURE 12. AAA RATED BONDS IN SECONDARY MARKET GAVE 152 BPS RISK PREMIUM No
Coupon
Maturity Date
Last Trade
Obligasi I Bank UOB Indonesia Tahun 2015 Seri B
600
9.40
1-Apr-18
8-Apr-16
101.60
8.51
101
Obligasi I Pupuk Indonesia Tahun 2014 Seri A
568
9.63
8-Jul-17
22-Mar-16
101.80
8.14
103
593
9.00
10-Dec-18
11-Apr-16
101.43
8.39
104
385
9.75
26-Nov-17
29-Mar-16
102.05
8.41
104
825
9.25
2-Jul-18
1-Apr-16
101.45
8.54
105
700
7.60
17-May-16
19-Feb-16
99.50
9.69
109
512
10.50
13-Feb-17
5-Apr-16
102.20
7.81
109
698
8.50
21-Jun-16
7-Apr-16
100.30
6.99
109
1,498
9.50
6-Nov-18
15-Apr-16
101.55
8.81
109
811
9.25
11-Jun-18
18-Apr-16
101.50
8.48
109
587
9.25
11-Sep-18
5-Apr-16
101.25
8.67
115
1,783
12.55
12-Jan-20
19-Jan-16
109.17
9.74
121
1,235
9.80
10-Feb-18
6-Apr-16
101.92
8.66
125
1,235
9.80
10-Feb-18
6-Apr-16
101.92
8.66
125
1,370
10.65
29-May-17
6-Apr-16
102.60
8.25
130
422
9.00
20-Mar-18
17-Mar-16
100.25
8.86
134
422
9.00
20-Mar-18
17-Mar-16
100.25
8.86
134
2,061
9.25
24-Apr-18
1-Apr-16
100.77
8.84
137
Bonds
1
BBIA01B
2
PIHC01A
3
PPLN01ACN2
4
ASDF02CCN2
5
ASDF02BCN5
6
TAFS03B
7
TAFS01BCN1
8
TAFS01ACN2
9
TAFS01BCN3
10
TAFS01BCN2
11
FIFA02BCN2
12
PPLN11B
13
NISP01CCN2
14
NISP01CCN2
15
ISAT05B
16
BCAF02CCN1
17
BCAF02CCN1
18
FIFA02BCN1
Risk Premium over risk free (bps)
Par Value (Rp bn)
ID
Obligasi Berkelanjutan I PLN Tahap II Tahun 2013 seri A Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance Tahap V Tahun 2015 Seri B Obligasi Toyota Astra Financial Services III Tahun 2013 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B Obl Berkelanjutan I Toyota Astra Financial Services Dgn Tingkat Bunga Tetap Thp I Tahun 2014 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Toyota Astra Financial Services Tahap II Tahun 2015 Seri A Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Toyota Astra Financial Services Tahap III Tahun 2015 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Toyota Astra Financial Services Tahap II Tahun 2015 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan II FIFA dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2015 Seri B Obligasi PLN XI Tahun 2010 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan I OCBC NISP Tahap II Tahun 2015 Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan I OCBC NISP Tahap II Tahun 2015 Seri C Obligasi Indosat V Tahun 2007 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan II BCA Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2015 Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan II BCA Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2015 Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan II FIFA dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2015 Seri B
Last Yield (%) Price
Page 5 of 9
Toyota Astra Financial Services (TAFS) | 22 April 2016
No
ID
19
BNGA01CCN2
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Bonds
Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahap II Tahun 2013 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan III Adira Finance Tahap II ADMF03BCN2 Tahun 2015 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap I BEXI02CCN1 Tahun 2014 Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap II BEXI02CN2 Tahun 2014 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap BEXI02BCN3 III Tahun 2014 Seri B Obligasi Brkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap V BEXI02CCN5 Tahun 2015 ("Obligasi") Seri C Obligasi Brkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap V BEXI02CCN5 Tahun 2015 ("Obligasi") Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan II BCA Finance Dengan BCAF02BCN1 Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2015 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance ASDF02CCN3 dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2014 SeriC Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap V BEXI02BCN5 Tahun 2015 ("Obligasi") Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap V BEXI02BCN5 Tahun 2015 ("Obligasi") Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Adira Finance Tahap III ADMF02BCN3 Tahun 2014 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap I BEXI02DCN1 Tahun 2014 Seri D Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Adira Finance Tahap IV ADMF02BCN4 Tahun 2014 Seri B
Par Value (Rp bn)
Last Yield (%) Price
Risk Premium over risk free (bps)
Coupon
Maturity Date
Last Trade
850
9.75
20-Nov-18
17-Mar-16
102.00
8.90
140
668
9.50
25-Aug-18
3-Feb-16
100.15
9.43
141
1,594
9.25
5-Jun-17
15-Apr-16
101.00
8.32
141
500
9.25
18-Jul-17
15-Apr-16
101.00
8.40
147
1,485
9.25
16-Oct-17
23-Mar-16
100.70
8.76
149
2,727
9.50
13-Mar-20
6-Apr-16
101.45
9.06
152
2,727
9.50
13-Mar-20
6-Apr-16
101.45
9.06
152
140
8.50
20-Mar-17
14-Mar-16
100.04
8.46
153
75
10.60
4-Apr-18
23-Mar-16
102.90
9.02
153
1,298
9.00
13-Mar-18
28-Mar-16
100.00
9.00
154
1,298
9.00
13-Mar-18
28-Mar-16
100.00
9.00
154
363
10.50
14-May-17
5-Apr-16
102.12
8.47
155
1,469
9.75
5-Jun-19
21-Mar-16
101.70
9.13
157
808
10.50
12-Nov-17
31-Mar-16
102.40
8.88
158
33
PIHC01B
Obligasi I Pupuk Indonesia Tahun 2014 Seri B
1,131
9.95
8-Jul-19
21-Mar-16
102.05
9.22
164
34
BBIA01C
Obligasi I Bank UOB Indonesia Tahun 2015 Seri C
500
9.60
1-Apr-20
14-Mar-16
101.00
9.30
167
35
BBIA01C
Obligasi I Bank UOB Indonesia Tahun 2015 Seri C
500
9.60
1-Apr-20
14-Mar-16
101.00
9.30
167
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Adira Finance II Tahun 2013 ADMF02CCN2 Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII Tahap II Tahun 2012 BNII01BCN2 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan III Adira Finance Tahap I ADMF03ACN1 Tahun 2015 Seri A
490
11.00
24-Oct-18
29-Mar-16
103.90
9.27
167
1,020
8.00
31-Oct-17
8-Mar-16
98.20
9.19
168
741
9.50
30-Jun-18
18-Apr-16
101.02
8.98
178
ISAT08B
1,500
8.88
27-Jun-22
15-Apr-16
97.75
9.36
185
450
10.75
14-May-19
11-Feb-16
102.50
9.84
189
782
9.25
4-Jun-18
18-Apr-16
100.30
9.09
190
750
10.30
12-Dec-19
5-Apr-16
102.53
9.48
192
427
10.40
4-Jun-25
24-Feb-16
100.00
10.40
196
277
10.25
25-Aug-20
1-Mar-16
100.70
10.05
199
238
10.25
30-Jun-20
12-Feb-16
101.15
9.92
200
250
10.50
12-Dec-21
11-Apr-16
104.00
9.58
211
1,075
10.00
8-Jul-17
16-Feb-16
100.95
9.26
220
88
10.75
12-Nov-19
13-Apr-16
103.23
9.67
221
360
10.70
12-Dec-24
13-Apr-16
104.55
9.91
234
Obligasi Indosat VIII Tahun 2012 Seri B
Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Adira Finance Tahap III ADMF02CCN3 Tahun 2014 Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indosat Tahap II Tahun 2015 ISAT01BCN2 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indosat Tahap I Tahun 2014 ISAT01BCN1 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indosat Tahap II Tahun 2015 ISAT01ECN2 Seri E Obligasi Berkelanjutan III Adira Finance Tahap II ADMF03CCN2 Tahun 2015 Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan III Adira Finance Tahap I ADMF03BCN1 Tahun 2015 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indosat Tahap I Tahun 2014 ISAT01CCN1 Seri C BEXI05D
Obligasi Indonesia Eximbank I Tahun 2010 Seri D
Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Adira Finance Tahap IV ADMF02CCN4 Tahun 2014 Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indosat Tahap I Tahun 2014 ISAT01DCN1 Seri D Average Risk Premium of AAA rated
152
Source: IDX, Mandiri Sekuritas estimate
Page 6 of 9
Toyota Astra Financial Services (TAFS) | 22 April 2016
FIGURE 14. YIELD AND RISK PREMIUM – TAFS01BCN3
Yield (RHS)
Risk premium
Source:IDX, Mandiri Sekuritas estimate
Yield (RHS)
Bps 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Apr-16
Feb-16
Feb-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Dec-15
Dec-15
Dec-15
Dec-15
Dec-15
Dec-15
% 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Nov-15
Jun-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Aug-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Sep-15 Sep-15 Sep-15 Sep-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Nov-15 Nov-15 Nov-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Jan-16 Feb-16 Feb-16 Feb-16 Feb-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Mar-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
% 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Nov-15
Risk premium Bps 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 -
Jan-16
FIGURE 13. YIELD AND RISK PREMIUM – TAFS01BCN2
Source: IDX, Mandiri Sekuritas estimate
Page 7 of 9
Toyota Astra Financial Services (TAFS) | 22 April 2016
TAFS Profit and loss YE Dec (Rp bn) Financing Income others Total income Interest & Financing Net interest income Operating Allowance Share in associates Income before tax Tax Net income
Balance sheet YE Dec (Rp bn) Cash Financing receivable-net
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
2018F
946
1,211
1,335
1,444
1,684
2,028
2,181
2,405
2,612
38
65
69
107
140
145
152
169
184
984
1,276
1,404
1,551
1,824
2,174
2,334
2,574
2,797
(547)
(714)
(727)
(797)
(994)
(1,185)
(1,266)
(1,436)
(1,445)
399
497
608
648
691
844
915
970
1,167
(173)
(203)
(250)
(261)
(282)
(302)
(304)
(326)
(348)
(42)
(100)
(77)
(87)
(111)
(194)
(204)
(220)
(250)
(9)
(26)
(23)
(48)
(64)
(86)
(68)
(75)
(39)
213
234
328
358
374
407
491
518
714
(61)
(62)
(85)
(93)
(97)
(101)
(123)
(129)
(179)
152
172
243
265
277
306
368
388
536
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
2018F
182
68
215
307
323
368
428
447
295
7,727
9,247
10,984
12,584
14,786
15,986
17,129
18,776
21,196
Fixed assets - net
34
59
77
82
96
121
122
134
145
Others
56
105
188
1,240
863
1,330
729
683
570
8,000
9,478
11,464
14,213
16,068
17,804
18,407
20,040
22,206
115
68
183
100
127
177
174
109
213
6,670
8,001
9,573
12,023
13,742
14,902
15,272
16,678
18,000
370
414
350
366
398
468
540
443
648
7,155
8,483
10,106
12,488
14,267
15,548
15,986
17,230
18,861
845
995
1,358
1,724
1,801
2,256
2,422
2,810
3,346
8,000
9,478
11,464
14,213
16,068
17,804
18,407
20,040
22,206
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
2018F
Total assets Payable to dealers Borrowings & Securities issued Other liabilities Total liabilities Shareholder's equity Total liabilities and equity
Key ratios YE Dec Profitability ROAA (%) ROAE (%) NIM (%) Interest spread (%) Avg interest yield Avg cost of funds Capitalization Total equity/total asset (%) Total Debt/total asset (%) Gearing ratio (x) Efficiency Cost to income Ratio (%) Cost to asset ratio (%) Asset quality NPF (%) Provision bal./Financ. receiv. (%) Write off/ Financ. receiv. (%) Coverage ratio (%)
2.3
2.0
2.3
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.5
22.2
18.7
20.7
17.2
15.7
15.1
16.5
14.8
17.4
6.1
5.8
5.9
5.4
5.0
5.4
5.5
5.3
5.7
4.8
4.4
4.8
4.7
4.5
4.7
4.6
4.1
4.4
14.6
14.1
13.0
12.1
12.2
13.0
13.0
13.1
12.7
9.7
9.7
8.3
7.4
7.7
8.3
8.4
9.0
8.3
10.6
10.5
11.8
12.1
11.2
12.7
13.2
14.0
15.1
83.4
84.4
83.5
84.6
85.5
83.7
83.0
83.2
81.1
7.9
8.0
7.0
7.0
7.6
6.6
6.3
5.9
5.4
39.6
36.1
36.9
34.6
33.9
30.6
28.5
28.6
25.8
2.2
2.1
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.4
2.0
2.5
3.0
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.4
243
311
318
321
186
174
290
368
434
Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Page 8 of 9
Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5701 (Debt Sales)
DEBT RESEARCH TEAM Handy Yunianto Head of Fixed Income Research
[email protected] +62 21 5296 9568
Leo Putra Rinaldi Economist
[email protected] +62 21 5296 9406
Ali Hasanudin Credit Analyst
[email protected] +6221 5296 9629
Wisnu Trihatmojo Research Assistant
[email protected] +62 21 5296 9544
Yulia Ansari Credit Analyst
[email protected] +62 21 5296 9408 Yudistira Yudadisastra Credit Analyst
[email protected] +62 21 5296 9698
DEBT CAPITAL MARKET TEAM Abdul Hadie Head of Institutional Sales
[email protected] +62 21 527 5378 Sita Arvianti Institutional Sales
[email protected] +62 21 527 5378
Fonny Supargo Institutional Sales
[email protected] +62 21 527 5378
Rininta Rizkia Okitanya Institutional Sales
[email protected] +62 21 527 5378
Teguh Suwarno Institutional Sales
[email protected] +62 21 527 5378
Mohammad Haikal Institutional Sales
[email protected] +62 21 527 5378
SINGAPORE DEBT CAPITAL MARKET TEAM Chia Soo Meng Head of Fixed Income Sales & Trading
[email protected] +65 6589 3898
Miranti Wulansari AVP - Institutional Sales
[email protected] +65 6589 3899
Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri, 28th Floor Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36-38 Jakarta 12190 - Indonesia General: +62 21 526 3445 Fax: +62 21 527 5701 (Debt Capital Market)
DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number 62-21-5263445. ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.
