TRANSUMO CONGRES EUROPEAN ASSOCATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMISTS congresverslag
Eindrapportage EAERE; oktober 2009
Auteur: Dr. Cees Withagen
THEMA
ZELFSTURING DOOR PRIJS EN ANDERE INCENTIVES IN HET PERSONENVERVOER
Samenvatting Van 24 tot 27 juni 2009 is op de Vrije Universiteit (VU) in Amsterdam het jaarlijks congres van de European Assocation of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE) gehouden. EAERE is een internationale wetenschappelijke organisatie die zich ten doel stelt bij te dragen aan de ontwikkeling en toepassing van milieueconomie en economie van natuurlijke hulpbronnen als wetenschap in Europa, om de communicatie en contacten tussen docenten, onderzoekers, en studenten in milieueconomie en resource economie in verschillende Europese landen te verbeteren, en om samenwerking tussen onderwijsinstituten op HBO en universitair niveau, en onderzoeksinstituten in Europa tot stand te brengen en aan te moedigen. De EAERE heeft nu meer dan 900 leden, vooral uit Europa maar ook uit andere delen van de wereld. Elk jaar organiseert EAERE een congres. Dit jaar waren 750 internationale wetenschappers, studenten en beleidsmakers vanuit de hele wereld bijeen om kennis uit te wisselen over actuele thema’s in milieueconomie en resource economie. In verschillende themasessies werden 600 papers gepresenteerd, die na een strenge reviewprocedure zijn toegelaten. De keynote speakers dit jaar in Amsterdam waren Kirk Hamilton, Bill Pizer, Rick van der Ploeg en Scott Taylor. Zij hebben gesproken over de crisis, genuine savings, innovation (and climate change), the resource curse en trade and the environment. Transumo heeft een bijdrage geleverd aan deze conferentie door een subsidie beschikbaar te stellen waarmee een aantal sessies over Transport en Milieu konden worden georganiseerd. Zes sessies met 24 papers werden georganiseerd rond dit thema. Daarnaast zijn vele papers gepresenteerd over verschillende thema’s die aansluiten bij Transumo. Specifiek is er onderzoek gepresenteerd uit het Spitsmijden-project en het project Betrouwbaarheid Transportketens. De transportsessies waren een groot succes wat betreft het aantal deelnemers, het aantal ingediende papers en de kwaliteit van de presentaties en papers.
Summary The annual conference of the European Assocation of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE) has been held from 24 to 27 June 2009 at the VU University Amsterdam. EAERE is an international scientific association which aims: to contribute to the development and application of environmental and resource economics as a science in Europe; to improve communication and contacts between teachers, researchers and students in environmental and resource economics in different European countries; to develop and encourage cooperation between university level teaching institutions and research institutions in Europe. EAERE currently has over 900 members, from Europe and beyond. Every year, the annual conference is organized. This year more than 750 international scientists, students and policy makers from all over the world participated in the conference, meeting, exchanging and debating current topics in environmental and resource economics. More than 1000 papers were submitted for presentation at the EAERE 2009 conference. After a strict reviewing procedure, nearly 600 papers were accepted and presented in different parallel sessions. This year’s keynote speakers were Kirk Hamilton, Bill Pizer, Rick van der Ploeg and Scott Taylor. They discussed the crisis, genuine savings, innovation (and climate change), the resource curse en trade and the environment. Transumo has made a financial contribution to this conference making it possible to organize a number of sessions focused on Transport and the Environment. Six sessions with 24 papers were organized. Moreover, many papers have been presented dealing with issues related to the Transumo project. More specifically, research from the SpitsMijden project and the project Betrouwbaarheid Transportketens was presented. The TRANSUMO sessions were a great success, in terms of the number of participants and the quality of presentations and papers.
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1. Introductie Het doel van het project was om drie special sessions te organiseren op het gebied van Transport en Milieu met in ieder geval twaalf papers. De special sessions zijn vooral gericht op het presenteren van onderzoek, het uitwisselen van kennis, en het samenbrengen van mensen met dezelfde onderzoeksachtergrond en onderzoekssamenwerking te vergemakkelijken. In totaal werden naast de drie special sessions nog 3 sessies met 12 papers over transport en het milieu gehouden, en daarnaast werden in diverse sessies papers gepresenteerd die aansluiten bij Transumo thema’s zoals Spatial Issues, Sustainability en Air Pollution. De special sessions leiden tot een effectieve en intensieve nationale en internationale disseminatie van kennis en recente wetenschappelijke inzichten. Vanwege de inhoudelijke focus op (onder meer) prijsbeleid en fuel taxes, komen de thema’s people, profit en planet hierbij ruimschoots aan bod. De papers zijn beschikbaar via de website van de conferentie.
2. Onderzoeksopzet/aanpak Het betreft hier een mede door Transumo gefinancierde conferentie met 160 referees. Het Local Organizing Committee (LOC) bestond uit: • Voorzitter: prof. dr. Harmen Verbruggen • Algehele Conferentie Coördinatie: drs.Hadewijch van Delft • Wetenschappelijk programma, sponsoring: prof. dr. Cees Withagen: • Advies: prof. dr. Marjan Hofkes • Advies: prof. dr. Frans Berkhout: advies • Wetenschappelijk programma: prof. dr. Daan van Soest Het Scientific Programme Committee bestond uit: • Geir Asheim • Daan van Soest • Cees Withagen Het EAERE secretariaat (Monica Eberle) bood ondersteuning vanuit ervaring eerdere congressen, contacten met uitgevers, e.d. De financiers waren: • Transumo • NWO • Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken • Centre for World Food Studies, VU • Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving • Knowledge Network for System Innovation and Transitions (KSI) • CPB • Ministerie van Economische Zaken • APG • Tinbergen Instituut • Vrije Universiteit • Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken, VU • CentER, Universiteit van Tilburg • Ministerie van Volkshuisvesting, Ruimtelijke Ordening en Milieubeheer • ECN De concrete uitvoering van het project in termen van congressecretariaat, financiële administratie, locatiefaciliteiten, website, accommodatie, programmering, etc. lag volledig bij de VU en is efficiënt en in goede samenwerking verlopen. Het EAERE-secretariaat heeft verder een belangrijke rol gespeeld als het gaat om advies, gebaseerd op voorgaande congressen, contacten met uitgevers, etc. Binnen de sessies rond het thema Transport en Milieu zijn verschillende papers gepresenteerd gebaseerd op de Transumo-projecten Spitsmijden en Betrouwbaarheid Transportketens.
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3. Resultaten en effecten De volgende deliverables zijn beschikbaar: • De Transport and the Environment sessies op het EAERE 2009 congres (W3); • Website met alle informatie, submission en registratie tools (K1a); • Aansluiting van participanten op internationale netwerk EAERE (W4); • Deelname van internationale deskundigen bij de conferentie en de Transumo sessies in de rol • van paper presenters, discussants, chairs (W5); • De papers (K2). De special sessions hebben geleid tot een uitwisseling van de nieuwste wetenschappelijke inzichten. Het beoogde resultaat, zoals benoemd in sectie 1, is bereikt zonder afwijkingen. De samenwerking is goed verlopen en er hebben zich geen problemen voorgedaan. De operationele uitvoering lag volledig bij de VU, en de besluitvorming ook grotendeels. De sponsoren en partners waren indirect betrokken, maar maakten het werk van de VU wel mogelijk. Vanwege de centrale positie van het thema prijsprikkels en fuel taxes was de inhoudelijke verbinding met Spitsmijden, maar ook met Betrouwbaarheid Transportketens, waardevol. Daarnaast zijn uit deze – en andere – Transumo-projecten participanten geworven, onder meer door directe benadering en via promotie vanuit Transumo. Het project betrof een internationale conferentie, per definitie een activiteit die (onder andere) internationale kennisontwikkeling tot doel heeft. Participanten waren afkomstig vanuit de hele wereld. Er werden drie presentaties gehouden door onderzoekers uit de Transumo-projecten Spitsmijden en Betrouwbaarheid Transportketens voor dit internationale publiek. Het was een succesvol evenement dat ruimschoots aan de verwachtingen heeft voldaan.
4. Verankering en doorwerking Het EAERE-secretariaat heeft gericht aankondigingen verstuurd waarin werd vermeld dat het congres van dit jaar speciale aandacht zou besteden aan het thema Transport en Milieu met de vermelding van Transumo als cofinancier. Daarnaast heeft de LOC deze boodschap ook naar het eigen internationale als nationale netwerk gestuurd (waaronder de NECTAR mailing list). Via Transumo is het eigen netwerk benaderd en geïnformeerd over het project en ook uitgenodigd een paper voor de conferentie in te dienen. (1e, 2e en 3e kring). Daarnaast diende de website als belangrijke informatiebron. Naast specifieke informatie over de special sessions rond het thema Transport and the Environment, kon men hier ook algemene informatie vinden over de locatie, hotels, programma, etc.. De papers kunnen worden gedownload vanaf de website. Een programmaboek en een book of abstracts waren in de congrestas aanwezig en ook downloadable via de website. De EAERE-conferentie wordt ook in 2010 weer gehouden, dan in Montreal en op wereldschaal, in samenwerking met de Amerikaanse evenknie. Bij de organisatie van die bijeenkomst wordt gebruikt gemaakt van de ervaringen van de voorgaande jaren, en dus ook van die van 2009. Deze ervaringen worden vastgelegd in een ‘final report’, dat voor het EAERE-secretariaat moet worden opgesteld. De lokale organisator gebruikt de netwerken die in de jaren daarvoor ook zijn gebruikt om een aankondiging voor de conferentie te doen, en zal daarnaast zijn lokale netwerken in kennis stellen van de EAERE-conferentie. Veel materiaal uit de conferentie van dit jaar zal worden gebruikt in Montreal. Verder wordt alle deelnemersinformatie van 2009 ter beschikking gesteld (aantal, categorie, etc.) om voorspellingen te kunnen doen voor 2010. Het gericht aandacht besteden aan een specifiek thema maakt het mogelijk een specifieke doelgroep aan te spreken en bekend te maken met EAERE.
5. Projectsucces Omdat disseminatie de kern van het project is, ligt de belangrijkste bijdrage bij kennisinfrastructuurontwikkeling. Hierbij denken we aan de versterking van banden en de overdracht van kennis tussen participanten aan het congres.
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Inhoudelijk betekende de focus op pricing en taxation, vanuit de wetenschap primair gemotiveerd vanuit de gedachte om externe effecten zoals vervuiling, geluidsoverlast, onveiligheid en congestie te beperken, dat de optimalisatie van duurzaamheid (en duurzaamheidsindicatoren) een centraal onderwerp was. De bijdrage van dit evenement was vooral het dissemineren van kennis over het analyseren van dergelijke externe effecten en van mogelijk beleid om deze te adresseren. Binnen de economie wordt hierbij een “breed welvaartsbegrip” gehanteerd, waarin de belangen van burgers (“people”), bedrijven (“profit”) en de waarde van milieu-effecten (“planet”) op integrale en symmetrische wijze worden afgewogen. Het project wordt door het projectteam als zeer geslaagd beoordeeld. Niet alleen is het beoogde aantal participanten behaald, ook het aantal ingediende papers voor de Special Sessions Transport en Milieu werd ruimschoots gehaald, waardoor een strenge selectie kon plaatsvinden. De wetenschappelijke kwaliteit van de conferentiepapers was dan ook hoog. Het projectteam kijkt trots terug op een zeer geslaagde conferentie vanwege: • Een goede samenwerking binnen het projectteam; • Gerichte uitnodigingen naar specifieke doelgroepen (transportnetwerken); • Goede kwaliteit van de paper presentaties van participanten; • Locatie van de venue (bereikbaarheid, het gebouw en zijn faciliteiten); • Het aantal ingediende papers en het aantal deelnemers overtrof de verwachtingen en de kwaliteit van de papers was hoog; • De tevreden geluiden van participanten ondersteunen dit gevoel. Het Transumo-project Spitsmijden heeft een bijdrage geleverd aan het congres in de vorm van de volgende twee papers: • ‘The Spitsmijden Experiment: a Reward to Battle Congestion’, J. Knockaert, Y. Tseng, J. Rouwendal, E. Verhoef. • ‘How to Alleviate Congestion by Rewarding Drivers’, J. Rouwendal, J. Knockaert, E. Verhoef Vanuit het project Betrouwbaarheid Transportketens: • The Impact on Weather Conditions on Mode Choice: Empirical Evidence for the Netherlands, M. Sabir, M. Koetse and P. Rietveld Daarnaast heeft Transumo een noodzakelijke subsidie gegeven en het eigen PR netwerk aangesproken op dit evenement. Transumo heeft met name een rol gespeeld bij de totstandkoming van de special sessions rondom het thema Transport en Milieu
Trefwoorden EAERE, Environmental, Resource, Conference, Transport, Transportation, Urban, Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Transumo, Amsterdam, Pricing, Fuel, Taxes, Zelfsturing, duurzaamheid, duurzame mobiliteit, transitie.
Literatuurverwijzing http://www.eaere2009.org/ http://www.webmeets.com/eaere/2009/
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Bijlage 1 Bijdrage project aan mijlpalen Transumo Mijlpalen voor wetenschappelijke output Wetenschappelijke publicatie W1 Dissertaties/theses W2 Wetenschappelijke publicaties W3 Wetenschappelijke seminars Internationalisering W4 Aansluiting internationale netwerken W5 Participatie internationale deskundigen Toepassingen W6 Toepassingen (valorisatie) Mijlpalen voor economische en maatschappelijke output Duurzame kennisinfra M1 Meer-partij onderzoek M2 Best practices M3 Samenwerkingsverbanden Kennis duurzame mobiliteit M4 Conceptontwikkeling M5 Kennis over technologische vernieuwing M6 Kennis van gebruikers Ervaring voor implementatie M7a Gebruikersoriëntatie M7b Gebruikersparticipatie M8 Praktijkcases M9 Proeftuinprojecten M10 (Ontwikkelen) transitiekennis Concretisering M11 Investeringsprojecten M12 Commerciële tools Mijlpalen innovatietraject, incl. kennistransfer Communicatie-uitingen K1a Website* K1b Factsheets projecten K1c Transumo brochure/leaflet K1d Transumo jaarverslag K1e Transumo jaarcongres Toegepaste publicaties K2 Onderzoeks(tussen)rapportages K3 Vakpublicatie K4 (Bijdragen) Vaksymposia K5 Lezingen, interviews Onderwijs K6 Onderwijscases HBO/WO K7 Afstudeerprojecten/stages Communities K8 Communities/Networks of Practice
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Bijlage 2: Aankondiging Transumo sessions Dear colleagues, Transport is a sector in which externalities are particularly important. It is no coincidence that Pigou's writings on the essence of external costs took a congested road as an example. Since then, massive growth in mobility has caused a dramatic increase in transport related externalities such as congestion, safety risks, noise and environmental emissions. For this reason, the annual conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE) will have some special sessions on Transport and the Environment. The conference will be held at the VU University Amsterdam 24 – 27 June 2009. These special sessions are concerned with the economics of transport externalities and sustainability. Papers are especially invited that address one of the following topics: • • • • • • • •
valuation of transport externalities; first-best and second-best transport policies; transport, land-use and environmental interaction; commuting, traffic congestion and environmental externalities; private versus public operation of transport networks: implications for the regulation of externalities; the adaption and diffusion of environmentally-friendly technologies in transport; cost-benefit analysis in transport; sustainable freight transport and logistics.
But also other contributions on the economics of transport externalities and sustainability are welcomed. The session is sponsored by Transumo (TRansition SUstainable MObility), but no connection to this programme is required for submitted papers. You can submit your paper at www.eaere2009.org, Please indicate in submitting your paper that you are interested in the special session on Transport and the Environment. The deadline for submission is February 1, 2009. We hope to welcome you in Amsterdam! Sincerely, The Local Organizing Committee of EAERE 2009 VU University Amsterdam
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Bijlage 3: Overzicht Transport and the Environment Sessions Sessie 1 Chair: Erik Verhoef THE SPITSMIJDEN EXPERIMENT: A REWARD TO BATTLE CONGESTION Presenter(s): Jasper Knockaert, VU University Amsterdam and Yinyen Tseng, VU University Amsterdam Co-author(s): Jan Rouwendal and Erik Verhoef Discussant(s): Cornelis Dirk van Goeverden THE EXTERNALITIES OF CONGESTION Presenter(s): Cornelis Dirk van Goeverden, Delft University of Technology Discussant(s): Alan Collins THE COST OF CYCLING, 1949-2005 Presenter(s): Alan Collins, University of Portsmouth Co-author(s): David Broadstock Discussant(s): Erik Verhoef MANIPULABLE CONGESTION TOLLS Presenter(s): Erik Verhoef, VU University Amsterdam Co-author(s): Jan Brueckner Discussant(s): Jasper Knockaert and Yinyen Tseng
Sessie 2 Chair: Piet Rietveld WILL A RADICAL TRANSPORT PRICING REFORM JEOPARDIZE THE AMBITIOUS EU CLIMATE CHANGE OBJECTIVES? Presenter(s): Stef Proost, KU Leuven Co-author(s): Denise van Regemorter Discussant(s): Fabio Grazi AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN FORM, TRANSPORT, AND GLOBAL WARMING Presenter(s): Fabio Grazi, International Research Centre on the Environment and Development (CIRED) Co-author(s): Jeroen van den Bergh and Jos Van Ommeren Discussant(s): Colin Vance TAX POLICY AND CO2 EMISSIONS: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE GERMAN AUTOMOBILE MARKET Presenter(s): Colin Vance, RWI Essen Co-author(s): Markus Mehlin Discussant(s): Mark Koetse THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND WEATHER ON TRANSPORT: AN OVERVIEW OF EMPIRICAL FINDINGS Presenter(s): Mark Koetse, VU University Amsterdam Co-author(s): Piet Rietveld Discussant(s): Stef Proost
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Sessie 3 Chair: Stef Proost WHY FUEL PRICES DIFFER REVISITED: DOES FUEL DEMAND EXPLAIN FUEL TAXES IN OECD/DEMOCRATIC COUNTRIES? Presenter(s): Brantley Liddle, Center for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University Co-author(s): Sidney Lung Discussant(s): Carolyn Fischer THE EUROPEAN ROAD PRICING GAME: HOW TO ENFORCE OPTIMAL PRICING IN HIGH-TRANSIT COUNTRIES UNDER ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION. Presenter(s): Saskia van der Loo, KU Leuven Co-author(s): Stef Proost Discussant(s): Fay Dunkerley IMPERFECT COMPETITION, CONSUMER BEHAVIOR, AND THE PROVISION OF FUEL EFFICIENCY IN LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES Presenter(s): Carolyn Fischer, Resources for the Future Co-author(s): Conrad Coleman Discussant(s): Saskia van der Loo WHAT DRIVES GASOLINE TAXES? Presenter(s): Fay Dunkerley, KU Leuven Co-author(s): Amihai Glazer and Stef Proost Discussant(s): Brantley Liddle
Sessie 4 Chair: Bruno De Borger APPLICATION OF A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (CGE) MODEL INCLUDING PASSENGER TRAVEL Presenter(s): Hans Kremers, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Berlin Co-author(s): Dominika Kalinowska Discussant(s): Eva Gutierrez-i-Puigarnau LABOUR SUPPLY AND COMMUTING: IMPLICATIONS FOR OPTIMAL ROAD TAXES Presenter(s): Eva Gutierrez-i-Puigarnau, VU University Amsterdam Co-author(s): Jos Van Ommeren Discussant(s): Jan Rouwendal HOW TO ALLEVIATE CONGESTION BY REWARDING DRIVERS Presenter(s): Jan Rouwendal, VU University Amsterdam Co-author(s): Jasper Knockaert and Erik Verhoef Discussant(s): Bruno De Borger OPTIMAL CONGESTION TAXES IN A TIME ALLOCATION MODEL Presenter(s): Bruno De Borger, University of Antwerp Discussant(s): Hans Kremers
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Sessie 5 Chair: Pablo del Rio THE IMPACT OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MODE CHOICE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR THE NETHERLANDS Presenter(s): Muhammad Sabir, VU University Amsterdam Co-author(s): Mark Koetse and Piet Rietveld Discussant(s): Erhan Demirel INCREASES IN WATER-LEVEL RISK FOR INLAND NAVIGATION MARKETS DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE:WELFARE EFFECTS DUE TO THE RISK AVERSION OF TRANSPORT DEMANDING CUSTOMERS Presenter(s): Erhan Demirel, VU University Amsterdam Co-author(s): Piet Rietveld and Jos Van Ommeren Discussant(s): Frédéric Ghersi DO OVERARCHING MITIGATION OBJECTIVES DOMINATE TRANSPORT-SPECIFIC TARGETS IN THE EU? Presenter(s): Frédéric Ghersi, CIRED Co-author(s): Simon McDonnell and Olivier Sassi Discussant(s): Pablo del Rio AN ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CO2 MITIGATION INSTRUMENTS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR Presenter(s): Pablo del Rio, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Madrid Discussant(s): Muhammad Sabir
Sessie 6 Chair: Hendrik Wolff NETWORK DEVELOPMENT UNDER A STRICT SELF-FINANCING CONSTRAINT Presenter(s): Saskia van der Loo, KU Leuven Co-author(s): André de Palma and Stef Proost Discussant(s): Miguel-Ángel Alva-González ENVIRONMENTALLY UNFRIENDLY CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOUR: THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM PRIVATE MOTORISTS IN MEXICO CITY Presenter(s): Miguel-Ángel Alva-González, ZEF, University of Bonn Discussant(s): Martin Achtnicht IMPACT OF SERVICE STATION NETWORKS ON PURCHASE DECISIONS OF ALTERNATIVE-FUEL VEHICLES Presenter(s): Martin Achtnicht, Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Co-author(s): Georg Bühler and Claudia Hermeling Discussant(s): Hendrik Wolff CARS, AIR POLLUTION AND LOW EMISSION ZONES IN GERMANY Presenter(s): Hendrik Wolff, University of Washington Co-author(s): Lisa Perry Discussant(s): Saskia van der Loo
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Bijlage 4 Abstracts papers TRANSUMO special sessions (volgens de volgorde van bijlage 3) THE SPITSMIJDEN EXPERIMENT: A REWARD TO BATTLE CONGESTION Presenter(s): Jasper Knockaert (VU University Amsterdam), Yinyen Tseng (VU University Amsterdam) Co-author(s): Jan Rouwendal (VU University Amsterdam), Erik Verhoef (VU University Amsterdam) It is often suggested that a reward may be a more popular policy instrument compared to the traditional taxation approach towards containing externalities. Given the implied policy potential, we conducted an reward experiment in real world conditions in the Netherlands. In this paper the data collected in the experiment is used to estimate a number of discrete choice models that describe the commuter’s behaviour with respect to departure time choice as well as transport mode choice. The results of our analysis provide a clear indication that a reward can be used as an effective policy instrument. THE EXTERNALITIES OF CONGESTION Presenter(s): Cornelis Dirk van Goeverden (Delft University of Technology) Congestion is a very special transport externality. Assessing its costs is a difficult job. Calculated cost values depend heavily on the applied method and assumptions that have to be made. Some basic assumptions that are generally used are doubtful, in particular the assumptions that congestion enlarges travel times and that excess travel times have no positive utility. They tend to overestimate the costs of lost time and convert a beneficial effect on fuel consumption and air pollution into a detrimental effect. Congestion is likely to be less harmful than is generally assumed. THE COST OF CYCLING, 1949-2005 Presenter(s): Alan Collins (University of Portsmouth) Co-author(s): David Broadstock (Halcrow Group Limited) Walking and cycling are difficult to value, largely because their costs of use are less tangible than travel by cars, motorcycles and public transport use, which have far more visible costs of usership such as taxes, insurance and fuel costs. Yet it is still logical to assume that these modes of transport are normal goods, and that there is a price (measured in terms of generalised cost) attached to their use. This study presents a means of determining a historic (generalised cost based) price index for cycling in the UK for the period 1949-2005 using annual data on cycling. MANIPULABLE CONGESTION TOLLS Presenter(s): Erik Verhoef (VU University Amsterdam) Co-author(s): Jan Brueckner (UC Irvine) The recent literature on congestion pricing for large agents contains a remarkable inconsistency: agents are large enough to recognize self-imposed congestion and exert market-power over prices, but they do not take account of the impact of their own actions on the magnitude of congestion tolls. When large agents are confronted with tolls derived under this parametric assumption but understand the rule used to generate them, the toll system will no longer guide the market to the social optimum. To address this problem, this paper derives an alternative, manipulable toll rule. WILL A RADICAL TRANSPORT PRICING REFORM JEOPARDIZE THE AMBITIOUS EU CLIMATE CHANGE OBJECTIVES? Presenter(s): Stef Proost (KU Leuven) Co-author(s): Denise van Regemorter (KU Leuven) This paper examines what are the implications for welfare and CO2 emissions of switching from mainly excise taxes on motorfuel to a system of pure externality taxes in the EU. What are the effects on transport volumes and will this change jeopardize the ambitious GHG goals that the EU has set for its economies?
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AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN FORM, TRANSPORT, AND GLOBAL WARMING Presenter(s): Fabio Grazi (International Research Centre on the Environment and Development (CIRED)) Co-author(s): Jeroen van den Bergh (ICREA and Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona), Jos Van Ommeren (VU University Amsterdam) Does urban form affect travel choices and thus CO2 emissions by individuals? If this is the case, then urban form and policies that influence it deserve serious attention in the context of long-term climate policy. To address this issue, we examine the impact of urban density on commuting behavior, and the consequences for CO2 emissions. The empirical investigation is based on an instrumental variable approach (IV), so as to take account of endogeneity of residence location. We decompose travel demand into components related to modal split and commuting distance by each mode. TAX POLICY AND CO2 EMISSIONS: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE GERMAN AUTOMOBILE MARKET Presenter(s): Colin Vance (RWI Essen) Co-author(s): Markus Mehlin (German Aerospace Center) Car-related taxes constitute a key pillar of the European Commission’s strategy to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars. The effectiveness of such taxes in determining car purchases remains poorly understood. Using panel data on new-car registrations in Germany, Europe’s largest car market, the present paper addresses this issue with a nested logit analysis of the impact of fuel costs and circulation taxes on car market shares. Contrasting with much existing evidence, the results suggest that these taxes significantly determine car market shares, and may serve as effective instruments in influencing the composition of the car fleet and associated CO2 emissions. THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND WEATHER ON TRANSPORT: AN OVERVIEW OF EMPIRICAL FINDINGS Presenter(s): Mark Koetse (VU University Amsterdam) Co-author(s): Piet Rietveld (VU University Amsterdam) This paper presents a survey of the empirical literature on the effects of climate change and weather conditions on the transport sector. Despite mixed evidence on many issues, several patterns can be observed. On a global scale especially shifts in tourism and agricultural production due to increased temperatures may lead to shifts in passenger and freight transport. The predicted rise in sea levels and the associated increase in frequency and intensity of storm surges and flooding incidences may furthermore be some of the most worrying consequences of climate change, especially for coastal areas. Climate change related shifts in weather patterns may also affect infrastructure disruptions. Clear patterns are that precipitation affects road safety; it increases accident frequency but decreases accident severity. Precipitation also increases congestion, especially during peak hours. Furthermore, an increased frequency of low water levels may considerably increase costs of inland waterway transport. Despite these valuable insights, the net impact of climate change on generalised costs of the various transport modes are uncertain and ambiguous, with a possible exception for inland waterway transport. WHY FUEL PRICES DIFFER REVISITED: DOES FUEL DEMAND EXPLAIN FUEL TAXES IN OECD/DEMOCRATIC COUNTRIES? Presenter(s): Brantley Liddle (Center for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University) Co-author(s): Sidney Lung (Victoria University) Despite the current interest in using fuel taxes as an instrument for climate policy there has been little study of current automotive fuel tax regimes. We expand on an earlier cross-sectional study on why fuel taxes differ across countries by using OECD panel data and employing panel cointegration and Granger-causality techniques. We confirm that earlier study’s finding that governments view gasoline taxes as simply another revenue source. But more significantly, we find that higher gasoline demand among consumers “causes” democratic governments to set lower gasoline taxes—a finding with important implications for today’s climate/energy policy debate. THE EUROPEAN ROAD PRICING GAME: HOW TO ENFORCE OPTIMAL PRICING IN HIGHTRANSIT COUNTRIES UNDER ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION.
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Presenter(s): Saskia van der Loo (KU Leuven) Co-author(s): Stef Proost (KU Leuven) A federal government tries to force local governments to implement welfare optimal tolling and investment. Welfare optimal tolling requires charging for marginal external costs. Local governments have an incentive to charge more than the marginal social cost whenever there is transit traffic. We analyse the pricing and investment issue in an asymmetric information setting where the local governments have better information than the federal government. The case of air pollution and of congestion are discussed. IMPERFECT COMPETITION, CONSUMER BEHAVIOR, AND THE PROVISION OF FUEL EFFICIENCY IN LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES Presenter(s): Carolyn Fischer (Resources for the Future) Co-author(s): Conrad Coleman (Resources for the Future) We explore the role of market power on the cost-effectiveness of policies to address fuel consumption. Market power gives manufacturers an incentive to under- (over-) provide fuel economy in classes whose consumers, on average, value it less (more) than in others. Adding a second market failure in consumer valuation of fuel economy, a policy tradeoff emerges. Minimum standards can address distortions from price discrimination but do not provide broad-based incentives for improving fuel economy like average standards. Increasing fuel prices raises demand for fuel economy but exacerbates undervaluation and incentives for price discrimination. A combination policy may be preferred. WHAT DRIVES GASOLINE TAXES? Presenter(s): Fay Dunkerley (KU Leuven) Co-author(s): Amihai Glazer (University of California, Irvine), Stef Proost (KU Leuven) In many countries gasoline taxes have hardly increased over time, while congestion has gone up. This is a puzzle for economists who believe that higher prices of road use are necessary to control congestion. We test a model, which predicts that, when the median voter is not a car user, he wants high gasoline taxes, but as a driver, he prefers a lower tax, that only increases to control congestion. We use panel data for 30 countries and 30 years to explain the evolution of gasoline taxes and find evidence that this model works for the majority of countries. APPLICATION OF A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (CGE) MODEL INCLUDING PASSENGER TRAVEL Presenter(s): Hans Kremers (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Berlin) Co-author(s): Dominika Kalinowska (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Berlin) This paper assesses the impact of road charging on welfare and travel demand of private households as well as on selected economic and environmental indicators. We construct a German database for an implemented computable general equilibrium model. We introduce different household categories according to income and travel demand patterns. The sensitivity of the model is analyzed based on different road charging revenue redistribution scenarios. The results illustrate how welfare or equity effects and therefore the social acceptance of road charge policies can be improved by an adequate design of the road charging revenue redistribution scheme.
LABOUR SUPPLY AND COMMUTING: IMPLICATIONS FOR OPTIMAL ROAD TAXES Presenter(s): Eva Gutierrez-i-Puigarnau (VU University Amsterdam) Co-author(s): Jos Van Ommeren (VU University Amsterdam) A newly established paradigm states that revenues of a welfare-maximising road tax should be employed to reduce distortionary income taxation. An essential assumption of the paradigm is an optimally chosen number of workdays, whereas daily workhours are fixed, implying that given a road tax, workers only reduce commuting costs by reducing total labour supply. However, our labour supply model that allows for optimally chosen daily hours implies that the effect of commuting costs
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on total labour supply is ambiguous. Our empirical analysis does not find a reduction in total labour supply, suggesting that income tax reduction is not necessary. HOW TO ALLEVIATE CONGESTION BY REWARDING DRIVERS Presenter(s): Jan Rouwendal (VU University Amsterdam) Co-author(s): Jasper Knockaert (VU University Amsterdam), Erik Verhoef (VU University Amsterdam) We consider the possibility to alleviate congestion by rewarding drivers. The standard (Vickrey) bottleneck model is our framework. Removing some drivers from the peak hour implies lower travel costs for all those who continue to use the bottleneck during the rush hour and this generates the resources needed to reward the drivers who are removed from the peak. We derive the optimal number of rewarded cummuters and the optimal rewards with inelastic and elastic demand. OPTIMAL CONGESTION TAXES IN A TIME ALLOCATION MODEL Presenter(s): Bruno De Borger (University of Antwerp) The purpose of this paper is to study optimal congestion taxes in a time allocation framework. If governments are limited to taxing market inputs into transport trip production, this (i) provides an argument for taxing congestion below marginal external cost; (ii) implies a favourable tax treatment for time-saving devices ; (iii) provides an argument for public transport subsidies . If the government is not restricted to taxing market inputs , it is no longer optimal to subsidize time-saving equipment; similarly, the subsidy argument for public transport disappears. We further look at the implications of treating transport as a derived demand. THE IMPACT OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MODE CHOICE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR THE NETHERLANDS Presenter(s): Muhammad Sabir (VU University Amsterdam) Co-author(s): Mark Koetse (VU University Amsterdam), Piet Rietveld 99 (VU University Amsterdam) This paper investigates the influence of weather conditions on individuals’ mode choice decisions. The major contribution of this study is that it uses micro level data from 1996 on transport behavior and weather conditions covering the entire Netherlands. Moreover, weather conditions are measured on an hourly basis. We use a multinomial logit model which allows for an accurate investigation of the effect of weather conditions on mode choice decisions. In (extremely) low temperatures, people switch from biking to car and public transport, whereas people prefer walking and biking as temperatures increase. Strong wind negatively influence the use of the bicycle, while precipitation also causes a reduction of the biking trips and raise in the car trips.
INCREASES IN WATER-LEVEL RISK FOR INLAND NAVIGATION MARKETS DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: WELFARE EFFECTS DUE TO THE RISK AVERSION OF TRANSPORT DEMANDING CUSTOMERS Presenter(s): Erhan Demirel (VU University Amsterdam) Co-author(s): Piet Rietveld (VU University Amsterdam), Jos Van Ommeren (VU University Amsterdam) In this paper we present a closed form solution of a micro-economic model of a market with stochastic supply capacities. Inland navigation markets, like for example the one on the Rhine river in Western Europe, seem to be a plausible field of application for this model. In these markets, capacities of barges are affected by climate change through changes in patterns of water-levels. Due to uncertainty in water-levels; available freight capacities, freight prices and profits made by carriers vary over time. In the market we observe that carriers are to some extent “insured” against water-level risk by the transportdemandingcustomers.
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DO OVERARCHING MITIGATION OBJECTIVES DOMINATE TRANSPORT-SPECIFIC TARGETS IN THE EU? Presenter(s): Frédéric Ghersi (CIRED) Co-author(s): Simon McDonnell (New York University), Olivier Sassi (CIRED) This research investigates if the stringent 2020 and 2050 overarching CO2 mitigation objectives of the European Union dominate its 2012 to 2020 targets specific to the transportation arena. Simulations of the IMACLIM-R model demonstrate that this hypothesis is ruled out when the carbon policies triggering compliance with the mitigation objectives boil down to carbon pricing. What is more, ground transportation is proven quite insensitive to high carbon prices even in a longer 2050 term. This highlights the urgent need for some ambitious transport-specific policy design research agenda. AN ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CO2 MITIGATION INSTRUMENTS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR Presenter(s): Pablo del Rio (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Madrid) Combinations of instruments involving carrots and sticks and encouraging behavioural and technological changes are likely to be needed to effectively reduce CO2 emissions from the transport sector. This paper provides an analytical framework to analyse the advantages and drawbacks of different instruments to tackle road passenger transport sector emissions and the possible interactions between different instruments (synergies and conflicts). The aim is to suggest combination of measures which are likely to reduce emissions in this sector in an effective and costeffective manner. NETWORK DEVELOPMENT UNDER A STRICT SELF-FINANCING CONSTRAINT Presenter(s): Saskia van der Loo (KU Leuven) Co-author(s): André de Palma (Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan), Stef Proost (KU Leuven) This paper offers a stylized model in which an agency is in charge of investing in road capacity and maintain it but cannot use the capital market so that the only sources of funds are the toll revenues. Two stylised problems are analysed: the one link problem and the problem of two parallel links with one link untolled. The numerical illustrations show the cost of the strict self-financing constraint as a function of the importance of the initial infrastructure stock, the rate of growth of demand, the price elasticity of demand and the flexibility in the pricing instruments.
ENVIRONMENTALLY UNFRIENDLY CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOUR: THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM PRIVATE MOTORISTS IN MEXICO CITY Presenter(s): Miguel-Ángel Alva-González (ZEF, University of Bonn) The article treats the environmentally unfriendly consumption behaviour in relation to air pollution and the use of automobiles in Mexico City by analyzing three related aspects: i) relevant factors of driving patterns, ii) differences in the extent of pollution arising from environmentally friendlier vehicle use, and iii) the attitude of private motorists regarding the adoption of environmentally friendlier behaviour. One main conclusion is that the program implemented thus far to control vehicle use in Mexico City has actually contributed to increased automobile use. The approach applied demonstrates that sociological context is an intrinsic part of motorist choices regarding vehicle use. IMPACT OF SERVICE STATION NETWORKS ON PURCHASE DECISIONS OF ALTERNATIVEFUEL VEHICLES Presenter(s): Martin Achtnicht (Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)) Co-author(s): Georg Bühler (Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)), Claudia Hermeling (Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW))
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This paper analyzes the impact of service station availability on the demand for alternative-fuel vehicles. We use a nested logit model to estimate consumer preferences regarding passenger cars with conventional and new fuels. Our estimation is based on data gathered by a stated preferences choice experiment, which was conducted as a CAPI survey with about 600 interviews of potential car buyers in Germany. By simulating different scenarios we illustrate how choice probabilities for alternative fuel-types are changing with a modified fueling infrastructure. Moreover, the consumers' willingness to pay for an enlarged service station network is derived. CARS, AIR POLLUTION AND LOW EMISSION ZONES IN GERMANY Presenter(s): Hendrik Wolff (University of Washington) Co-author(s): Lisa Perry (University of Washington) Low Emission Zones (LEZ) are areas in which vehicular access is restricted to low emission vehicles only. Recently, LEZ have become popular to reduce air pollution, particularly in Europe in order to comply with the quite stringent 2005 EU air pollution legislation. We study the effect of LEZs in two ways. First, we assess whether pollution levels do actually decrease in LEZs using difference-indifferences and regression discontinuity. Second, we study the changes in the composition of the fleet by analyzing the substitution effects in new purchases and retrofitting between high and low emission cars due to the LEZ regulation.
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Over Transumo Transumo (TRansition SUstainable MObility) is een platform van meer dan 300 bedrijven, overheden en kennisinstellingen die gezamenlijk kennis ontwikkelen op het gebied van duurzame mobiliteit. Transumo streeft naar een transitie vanuit het huidige, inefficiënte Nederlandse mobiliteitssysteem naar een duurzaam systeem dat bijdraagt aan versterking van de economische concurrentiepositie, met aandacht voor mens en milieu. Transumo’s activiteiten zijn gestart in 2005 en liepen tot eind 2009. Er is binnen Transumo gewerkt aan ruim 35 projecten en ruim 30 Top-up’s. Louis Pasteurlaan 6 PO Box 80 2700 AB Zoetermeer T +31 (0)79 347 09 50 F +31 (0)79 347 09 55
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