Support & Resistance Basics by Casey Murphy, FREE Forex Report - The 5 Things That Move The Currency Market (Contact Author | Biography) support and resistance merupakan 2 atribut yang dibahas dalam analisis teknis diakui sebagai permasalahan komplek dalam mempelajari perdagangan. Artikel ini mencoba menjelaskan Konsep
kompleksitas konsep dengan memusatkan perhatian pada apa dasar yang harus diketahui trader. Kamu akan belajar bahwa terminologi ini digunakan oleh pedagang untuk mengukur level harga dan pada chart berapa bertindak sebagai resistance dalam mencegah harga untuk menembus pada suatu arah tertentu.
The Basics Pedagang yang berpengalaman akan menceritakan kepada banyak orang tentang bagaimana level tren harga tertentu untuk mencegah pedagang dari tekanan harga sebagai dasar pada suatu arah tertentu. Sebagai contoh, berasumsi bahwa Jim sedang memegang suatu posisi di dalam bursa/stock antara Maret Dan November 2006 dan bahwa ia sedang mengharapkan nilai saham naik.
Let's imagine that Jim notices that the price fails to get above $39 several times over the past several months, even though it has gotten very close to moving above it. In this case, traders would call the price level near $39 a level of resistance. As you can see from the chart below, resistance levels are also regarded as a ceiling because these price levels prevent the market from moving prices upward. Mari kita bayangkan Pesan Jim [bahwa/yang] harga gagal untuk meremehkan $ 39 beberapa kali (di) atas masa lalu beberapa bulan, sungguhpun [itu] telah mendapat sangat dekat dengan ber/gerakkan di atas itu. Dalam hal ini, pedagang akan [sebut/panggil/hubungi] harga [itu] mengukur dekat $ 39 suatu tingkatan pembalasan. Seperti anda dapat lihat dari tabel di bawah, pembalasan tingkatan adalah juga dihormati sebagai pagu/langit-langit sebab tingkatan harga ini mencegah pasar [itu] dari ber/gerakkan harga menaik.
Figure 1
On the other side of the coin, we have price levels that are known as support. This terminology refers to prices on a chart that tend to act as a floor by preventing the price of an asset from being pushed downward. As you can see from the chart below, the ability to identify a level of support can also coincide with a good buying opportunity because this is generally the area where market participants see good value and start to push prices higher again. Di sebelah lain koin, kita mempunyai tingkatan harga yang dikenal sebagai pen;dukungan. Istilah ini mengacu pada harga pada [atas] suatu tabel yang [tuju/ cenderung] untuk bertindak sebagai suatu lantai dengan pencegahan [itu] harga suatu asset dari didorong mengarah ke bawah. Seperti anda dapat lihat dari tabel di bawah, kemampuan untuk mengidentifikasi suatu tingkatan pen;dukungan dapat juga bersamaan dengan suatu baik membeli kesempatan sebab ini adalah biasanya area [di mana/jika] peserta pasar lihat nilai baik dan start untuk mendorong harga yang lebih tinggi lagi.
Figure 2 Trendlines In the examples above, you've seen a constant level prevent an asset's price from moving higher or lower. This static barrier is one of the most popular forms of support/resistance, but the price of financial assets generally trends upward or downward so it is not uncommon to see these price barriers change over time. Di (dalam) contoh di atas, kamu telah melihat suatu tingkatan tetap mencegah suatu harga asset dari ber/gerakkan lebih rendah atau lebih tinggi. Penghalang [yang] statis ini adalah salah satu [dari] format support/resistance [yang] [yang] populer, hanyalah harga asset keuangan [yang] biasanya kecenderungan yang menaik atau mengarah ke bawah sangat [itu] tidaklah luar biasa untuk memeriksa perubahan penghalang harga ini dengan teliti waktu.
This is why understanding the concepts of trending and trendlines is important when learning about support and resistance. When the market is trending to the upside, resistance levels are formed as the price action slows and starts to pull back toward the trendline. This occurs as a result of profit taking or near-term uncertainty for a particular issue or sector. Inilah alasan kenapa pemahaman konsep kecenderungan dan trendlines adalah penting ketika pelajaran tentang pen;dukungan dan pembalasan. Ketika pasar sedang kecenderungan kepada sebelah atas,
tingkatan pembalasan dibentuk [ketika;seperti] tindakan harga melambat dan start untuk menyingkap ke arah trendline [itu]. Ini terjadi sebagai hasil laba [yang] mengira atau near-term ketidak-pastian isu atau sektor tertentu .
The resulting price action undergoes a "plateau" effect or slight drop-off in stock price, creating a short-term top. (To learn more, read Track Stock Prices With Trendlines and Short-, Intermediate- and Long-Term Trends.) Hasilkan tindakan harga mengalami a " dataran tinggi" efek atau melalaikan drop-off dalam persediaan menghargai, menciptakan suatu puncak jangka pendek. ( Untuk belajar lebih [], membaca Harga Bursa/Stock Jejak/Jalur Dengan Trendlines dan Pendek/Singkat-, Intermediate/Antara- dan Kecenderungan Jangka panjang.)
Many traders will pay close attention to the price of a security as it falls toward the broader support of the trendline because historically, this has been an area that has prevented the price of the asset from moving substantially lower. For example, as you can see from the Newmont Mining Corp (NEM) chart below, a trendline can provide support for an asset for several years. In this case, notice how the trendline propped up the price of Newmont's shares for an extended period of time. Banyak orang Pedagang akan membayar perhatian teliti kepada harga suatu keamanan [sebagai/ketika] [itu] jatuh ke arah pen;dukungan yang lebih luas trendline sebab menurut sejarah, ini telah (menjadi) suatu area yang telah mencegah [itu] harga asset dari ber/gerakkan pada hakekatnya lebih rendah. Sebagai contoh, seperti anda dapat lihat dari Newmont Yang menambang Corp ( NEM) tabel di bawah, suatu trendline dapat menyediakan pen;dukungan untuk suatu asset untuk beberapa tahun. Dalam hal ini, berpesan bagaimana trendline menopang [itu] harga [Bagian;Saham] Newmont's untuk suatu periode waktu diperluas.
Figure 3 On the other hand, when the market is trending to the downside, traders will watch for a series of declining peaks and will attempt to connect these peaks together with a trendline. When the price approaches the trendline, most traders will watch for the asset to encounter selling pressure and may consider entering a short position because this is an area that has pushed the price downward in the past. (To learn more, check out Peak-and-Trough Analysis.) Pada sisi lain, ketika pasar sedang kecenderungan kepada sisi menurun/jatuh, pedagang akan menanti
satu rangkaian merosot puncak dan akan mencoba untuk menghubungkan puncak ini bersama-sama dengan suatu trendline. Ketika harga mendekati trendline [itu], kebanyakan pedagang akan menanti asset [itu] untuk menghadapi menjual tekanan dan boleh mempertimbangkan memasuki suatu posisi pendek/singkat sebab ini adalah suatu area yang telah mendorong harga [itu] yang mengarah ke bawah di masa lalu. ( Untuk belajar lebih [], check-out Peak-And-Trough Analisa.)
The support/resistance of an identified level, whether discovered with a trendline or through any other method, is deemed to be stronger the more times that the price has historically been unable to move beyond it. Support/Resistance dari suatu tingkatan dikenali, apakah ditemukan dengan suatu trendline atau melalui yang ada lain metoda, adalah dianggap sebagai lebih kuat semakin [kali;zaman] [bahwa/yang] harga telah menurut sejarah tidak mampu untuk pindah;gerakkan di luar itu.
Many technical traders will use their identified support and resistance levels to choose strategic entry/exit prices because these areas often represent the prices that are the most influential to an asset's direction. Most traders are confident at these levels in the underlying value of the asset so the volume generally increases more than usual, making it much more difficult for traders to continue driving the price higher or lower. Banyak pedagang teknis akan menggunakan pembalasan dan pen;dukungan [yang] dikenali mereka mengukur untuk memilih entry/exit harga strategis sebab area ini sering menghadirkan harga [itu] yang adalah [yang] yang paling berpengaruh [bagi/kepada] suatu arah asset. Kebanyakan pedagang adalah yakin pada ini mengukur mendasari nilai asset sehingga volume [yang] biasanya meningkat/kan lebih dari umum, membuat [itu] jauh lebih [yang] sulit untuk pedagang untuk melanjut mengemudi harga [itu] yang lebih tinggi atau lebih rendah.
Round Numbers Another common characteristic of support/resistance is that an asset's price may have a difficult time moving beyond a round price level such as $50. Most inexperienced traders tend to buy/sell assets when the price is at a whole number because they are more likely to feel that a stock is fairly valued at such levels. Karakteristik support/resistance [yang] umum lain adalah bahwa suatu harga asset mungkin punya suatu waktu sulit yang ber/gerakkan di luar suatu tingkatan harga putaran seperti $ 50. Pedagang [yang] paling kurang pengalaman [tuju/ cenderung] ke buy/sell asset ketika harga ada di suatu bilangan penuh sebab mereka jadilah lebih mungkin untuk merasakan bahwa suatu bursa/stock [secara] wajar dihargai pada . seperti (itu) tingkatan.
Most target prices/stop orders set by either retail investors or large investment banks are placed at round price levels rather than at prices such as $50.06. Because so many orders are placed at the same level, these round numbers tend to act as strong price barriers. Kebanyakan target prices/stop [order/ pesanan] menyimpan baik investor eceran maupun bank investasi besar ditempatkan pada tingkatan harga putaran dibanding/bukannya pada harga seperti $ 50.06. Sebab sangat banyak [order/ pesanan] ditempatkan di tingkatan yang sama, angka kira-kira; angka pembulatan ini [tuju/ cenderung] untuk bertindak sebagai penghalang harga kuat.
If all the clients of an investment bank put in sell orders at a suggested target of, for example, $55, it would take an extreme number of purchases to absorb these sales and, therefore, a level of resistance would be created. Jika semua klien dari suatu bank investasi menaruh menjual [order/ pesanan] pada suatu target [yang] diusulkan, sebagai contoh, $ 55, [itu] akan mengambil suatu jumlah ekstrim pembelian untuk menyerap penjualan ini dan, oleh karena itu, suatu tingkatan pembalasan akan diciptakan.
Moving Averages Most technical traders incorporate the power of various technical indicators, such as moving averages, to aid in predicting future short-term momentum, but these traders never fully realize the ability these tools have for identifying levels of support and resistance. Pedagang [yang] paling teknis menyertakan [kuasa/ tenaga] berbagai indikator teknis, seperti rata-rata bergerak, untuk membantu meramalkan daya gerak jangka pendek masa depan, tetapi pedagang ini tidak pernah secara penuh [merealisir/sadari] kemampuan [itu] perkakas ini mempunyai untuk mengidentifikasi tingkat pen;dukungan dan pembalasan.
As you can see from the chart below, a moving average is a constantly changing line that smooths out past price data while also allowing the trader to identify support and resistance. Seperti anda dapat lihat dari tabel di bawah, suatu rata-rata bergerak adalah suatu secara konstan mengubah garis yang melicinkan data harga yang lampau [selagi/sedang] juga membiarkan pedagang [itu] untuk mengidentifikasi pen;dukungan dan pembalasan.
Notice how the price of the asset finds support at the moving average when the trend is up, and how it acts as resistance when the trend is down. Most traders will experiment with different time periods in their moving averages so that they can find the one that works best for this specific task. (To read more, see Exploring Oscillators And Indicators and Trading Psychology And Technical Indicators.) Pesan bagaimana harga asset temukan pen;dukungan di rata-rata bergerak ketika kecenderungan adalah atas, dan bagaimana [itu] bertindak sebagai pembalasan ketika kecenderungan adalah bawah. Kebanyakan pedagang akan mengadakan percobaan dengan periode waktu berbeda di (dalam) rata-rata bergerak mereka sedemikian sehingga mereka dapat temukan satu yang bekerja [yang] terbaik untuk tugas spesifik ini. ( Untuk membaca lebih [], lihat Menyelidiki Osilator Dan Indikator dan Berdagang Psikologi Dan Indikator Teknis.)
Figure 4
Other Indicators In technical analysis, many indicators have been developed for to identify barriers to future price action. These indicators seem complicated at first and it often takes practice and experience to use them effectively. Regardless of an indicator's complexity, however, the interpretation of the identified barrier should be consistent to those achieved through simpler methods. For example, the Fibonacci retracement tool is a favorite among many short-term traders because it clearly identifies levels of potential support/resistance. The reasoning behind how this indicator calculates the various levels of support and resistance is beyond the scope of this article, but notice in Figure 5 how the identified levels (dotted lines) are barriers to the short-term direction of the price. (For more on this tool, see What is Fibonacci retracement, and where do the ratios come from?, Advanced Fibonacci Applications and Fibonacci And The Golden Ratio.)
Figure 5 Conclusion Determining future levels of support can drastically improve the returns of a short-term investing strategy because it gives traders an accurate picture of what price levels should prop up the price of a given security in the event of a correction. Conversely, foreseeing a level of resistance can be advantageous because this is a price level that could potentially harm a long position because it signifies an area where investors have a high willingness to sell the security. As mentioned above, there are several different methods to choose when looking to identify support/resistance, but regardless of the method, the interpretation remains the same - it prevents the price of an underlying from moving in a certain direction. PART 1 Almost a year has passed since I wrote an introductory article describing the basics of both Support and Resistance. Much has happened in the markets since that early piece was offered up for investors venturing into the world of technical analysis for the first time. When most sectors are continuing on what appears to be a never-ending downward trendline, it is time to revisit support and resistance indicators, which could help you call the all-important entry and/or exit points when the markets make the turn northward. (For an introduction see Support and Resistance.) We know that issues will trade between support and resistance. We also know that if the support or resistance does not have a significant volume number attached to it, that in most cases, the stock price will not break through the support or resistance line. This article examines how to measure the amount of support and resistance in our charts that will help to make our buy/sell decisions more effective. And we are going to learn how to measure overhead supply.
Support and resistance have been thought of as zones versus finite points. If a chartist draws a horizontal line at what appears to be the resistance at $15, the resistance may not be broken as the stock price moves to $16. In fact, the zone around the $15.00 mark should be studied closely. Resistance, in this hypothetical situation could be from $14 to the $16 mark. How would we know how to recognize a zone and how could we measure it? The answer is volume. Volume plays the key role in the understanding of these zones. To demonstrate whether or not support and resistance will hold up when tested, let’s have a look at this 2001-2002 chart of Daktronics (DAKT).
Chart Created with Tradestation Daktronics Inc. is a designer, marketer and manufacturer of state-of-the-art electronic scoreboards and freeway overhead signage. The stock, as you can see in the chart, traded up to $17 in early summer of 2001 and fell off dramatically on Jul 13 and again on Oct 11 to settle in between $6 and $7. Over the next month or so the price action slowly moved upward to the support line at $8, trading between $8 and $9 for about two months at the end of 2001 (Nov 14 to Jan 16). During that period, the average daily volume was 32,000 shares per day for a total of about 1,280,000 shares. At that point the stock price tumbled again to the $6 level leaving some shareholders holding about 1.3 million shares at the $8-to-$9 price range for as much as a 33% loss. The 1.3 million shares are referred to as "overhead supply". Look closely at this time period between the middle of November and middle of January, because the shares purchased during this time stood to play an important role in the formation of the next uptrend. Many of the shareholders from this time frame and price action had well been sellers when the stock price came back to the break-even level, putting a tremendous amount of pressure on the
ability for the price action to move through the $8-to-$9 zone and break new ground. On Mar 22, the stock price closed back above $8 for the first time since mid Jan, and a study of the volume showed that over the next 15 trading sessions, half of the overhead supply was traded as well. Having said this, there was still about 650,000 shares left in the hands of investors, suggesting they had a long-term outlook and a minor slide for a couple of months had not been enough for them to sell their positions at the break-even level. It should be noted that it took a strong volume day of 179,600 shares traded for DAKT to move through the $9 zone, and another 160,000 over the next two trading sessions to sustain the stock price at that level. So, an investor can quantify the overhead supply by adding the volume at the previous bottom. It is this number that investors should take into account as the stock price heads north. It is this number that will play a very important role in determining whether or not resistance will be broken. I the play does not have the volume necessary to break through into new ground, the stock price may just bounce off the resistance line and continue to decline in price. In part 2, we take closer at overhead supply, examining how human emotion fits into investing the equation. Remember, it’s your money – invest it wisely. Learn, understand and execute.
PART 2 It is easy to understand that an intermediate bottom that is developed in a severe downtrend (bear market) over an extended period of time will have very little resistance once the stock price of an issue has fallen far below it. The resistance, if any, that developed at the $63-$66 level in Sept and Oct of 2000 was not likely to be tested again for years, if ever. And the same can be said for the zone created at the $32-$34 level in Dec 2000 and Jan 2001. The overhead supply at these zones was over 368 million shares at the $63-$66 zone, and 439 million shares at the $32-$34 level. In this example, we have not taken into account the traded volume in the Canadian market, where Nortel Networks trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and where volumes regularly exceeded those on the New York Stock Exchange.
Chart Created with Tradestation Edwards and Magee, in "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends", wrote that an older resistance zone may surprisingly show a good deal of resistance providing that little or no change had been made in the capitalization of the company by means of stock splits and/or large dividend payouts. These ideas of the two pioneers of technical analysis held true because 50 years ago, investors bought companies to hold them for a lifetime and would never think to trade the stock into pullbacks, or even use dollar cost averaging. I would find it very hard to believe that there would be many prudent investors who, if they had mistakenly purchased Nortel Networks at the $60 or $30, would still be holding the stock looking for a turnaround. Let's look at what happens to a stock price when the overhead supply (explained in part 1) is too great to absorb the volume of a potential breakout. In the chart of Microsoft the horizontal lines represent a resistance zone between $66 and $72 over a period from 1999 to 2002. You can see by the arrows the number of times that the stock price had tried unsuccessfully to break through this resistance zone only to fail and fall back to levels in and around the $50 range.
Chart Created with Tradestation Not had the breakout failed in these instances due to enormous overhead supply, but also a trading pattern developed that traders took advantage of to profit greatly from recognizing the support and resistance zones. Take a look at the pattern that developed since Mar 2000. MSFT fell out of favor with investors in and fell from $110 to the $66-$70 zone and tried valiantly to form a base formation but to no avail, so the stock price fell to the $50 mark. From that point the pattern began to set up. The up and down arrows indicate the zones that traders used as signals of entry and exit points to increase dramatically portfolio returns. The jury was still out on the status of the stock price in Jun 2002 as the was bouncing out of this zone to trade $15 to $20 higher. Understanding and recognizing support and resistance zones are important in bear markets, and an understanding of volume overhead supply will help you spot break outs, but also begin to recognize investor psychology and trading patterns that play into the charts we search daily for entry and exit positions. Remember, it's your money, invest it wisely. Learn, understand and then execute. by Investopedia Staff (Contact Author | Biography) Investopedia.com believes that individuals can excel at managing their financial affairs. As such, we strive to provide free educational content and tools to empower individual investors, including thousands of original and objective articles and tutorials on a wide variety of financial topics.
