Financiering van Containerreuzen 17 November 2011 Pieter Baan
November 2011
Vraag / aanbod Orderboeken gedomineerd door Containerreuzen • Gemeten in TEU is huidige orderboek 30% van de totale container vloot (Alphaliner) • Gemiddelde capaciteit orderboek is 6800 TEU / containerschip, vergeleken met 3080 TEU in huidige vloot Current fleet Capacity (TEU) Maersk 2,455,014 MSC 2,029,482 CMA CGM 1,322,634 COSCO 650,840 Hapag Lloyd 627,725 Evergreen 611,678 APL 591,015 CSCL 505,913 Hanjin 494,654 CSAV 468,562 MOL 421,303 OOCL 412,182 Hamburg Sud 405,897 NYK 397,473 K Line 342,763 Other 3,422,865 Total 15,160,000 Source: AXS Alphaliner November 2011
Vessels 645 473 394 148 144 167 147 143 104 112 100 87 118 101 80 1,959 4,922
Orderbook Capacity (TEU) 521,033 476,796 146,250 244,168 131,000 308,000 300,880 93,896 248,963 84,000 120,830 131,928 211,488 63,476 45,200 1,422,092 4,550,000
% order 21.2% 23.5% 11.1% 37.5% 20.9% 50.4% 50.9% 18.6% 50.3% 17.9% 28.7% 32.0% 52.1% 16.0% 13.2% 41.5%
30.1%
Vraag / aanbod Verwacht herstel afgeremd door orders Containerreuzen
Levering gedomineerd door container reuzen > 10,000 TEU
Sources: AXS Alphaliner, Clarkson Research Studies November 2011
Vraag / aanbod Charter rates en waarde van schepen terug op 2003 niveau • Groei wereldwijde container markt geschat op 8.3% voor dit jaar, tot 152m TEU (Clarksons) • Containter markt ziet overcapaciteit van 1.95m TEU, 13% van huidige vloot (Alphaliner) • Gevolg van overcapaciteit: freight rates terug tot onder 2003-niveau USD/day 50.000 40.000 East- W Mainlane
est
West Other EastNorth-South
Intra-regional
30.000 20.000 10.000 0 2003-01
2005-01
Panamax 3500TEU Panamax 4400TEU
Source: Clarkson Research Studies November 2011
2007-01
2009-01
2011-01
Sub-Panamax 2750TEU
Vraag / aanbod Mitigerende factoren op overcapaciteit • Scrapping: voor 2011 geschat op slechts 46,500 TEU. Voor 2012 geschat op 38,600 TEU (Clarksons) • Idling: Momenteel ligt 120,000 TEU (0.8%) idle, vergeleken met 1.5m TEU (12%) in Dec 2009 (Clarksons) • Cascading down effect: in hoeverre wordt capaciteit vanuit Azie-Europa trade ingezet op andere trades?
Sources: AXS Alphaliner, Clarkson Research Studies November 2011
Shipping’s eigen credit crunch Wie gaat de containerreuzen financieren?
Een USD460mrd orderboek… 18%
19%
Negatieve outlook shipping banken…
Tankers
Combination carriers Containerships
18%
LNG Carriers
90.000
350 300
70.000 US$m
3%
400
80.000
Bulkers
1%
100.000
60.000
250
50.000
200
40.000
150
30.000 100
20.000
0%
41%
LPG Carriers
0
Syndicated shipping debt (LHS)
November 2011
0
20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 1 3Q 0 20 11
Other (Offshore, Cruise, MMP, FPSO, Ro-Ro)
Sources: Clarksons, Marsoft
50
10.000
Source: Clarksons
Number of deals (RHS)
Shipping’s eigen credit crunch (II) Wie gaat de containerreuzen financieren? Oorzaak
Effect
Spread in bps 700
Financiële crisis
Bank USD en EUR funding kosten zijn dramatisch gestegen
CDS spreads (5yr)
600 500 400
Overcapaciteit in container liner markt
Druk op charter rates en waarde van schepen
300 200 100 -
Risk migratie
Vlucht naar top tier klanten met stabiele cashflows en lagere LTV’s
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Example Scandinavian Banks Example UK Banks Example PIGS Banks
Jan-11
Jul-11
Example French Banks Example German banks
Source: Bloomberg
Banken zien intern gevecht om kapitaal
Andere sectoren (e.g. offshore) hebben betere risk/reward
Exits en balans reducties
Gevestigde shipping banken hebben shipping vaarwel gezegd
November 2011
USD 40bln Ship loan portfolio te koop
Verzekering van container reuzen Een voorbeeld •
Gemiddelde waarde USD 30,000 per container, met 15,000 containers een totale waarde USD 450mln.
•
Totale waarde schip USD 600mln met lading en bunker kosten
•
Totale aansprakelijkheid: verzekerde limieten tot USD 5mrd per schip
Sources: Lloyds, Post & Co November 2011
Disclaimer This presentation of ING Bank N.V. shall serve solely for information as a platform for discussion. Copyright and intellectual property right protection of this presentation is reserved to ING Bank N.V. (‘ING’). It may therefore not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved. While ING has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of presentation, ING makes no representation with regard to the accuracy or completeness of the information, part of which was obtained from public sources and relied upon as such. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice. Neither ING nor any of its officers or employees accepts any liability for any loss arising from any use of this presentation or its contents. This presentation does not constitute an agreement or a commitment or an offer to commit to any transaction or any financing by ING. Any such commitment or agreement shall be subject to further negotiation, satisfactory completion of due diligence, ING credit and other approvals, execution of legal documentation acceptable to ING and receipt by ING of positive opinions from legal counsel. ING calls for attention to the fact that it is part of ING Groep N.V. (‘ING Group’). Members of ING Group may advise or provide services (including investment advice) and act as an active investor in equity shares and other securities. Please be informed that in order to avoid any possible conflicts of interest, investment decisions in securities are taken fully independently by the investment portfolio professionals.
November 2011
Discussion
November 2011
