WEALTH WEEKLY Juni 2010 ECONOMY

WEALTH WEEKLY 14- 18 Juni 2010 ECONOMY Indonesia: Suku Bunga dan Inflasi (%) BI Rate

6.50

per

21-Jun

LPS*

7.00

Inflasi yoy

4.16

per

31-May

Inflasi mom

0.29

per

31-May

Sbi 1-bln

6.26

per

9-Jun

SBI 3-bln

6.58

per

9-Jun

Bank Indonesia menerbitkan enam paket kebijakan penguatan manajemen moneter dan pengembangan pasar keuangan. Langkah itu dilakukan untuk merespons dan mengantisipasi berbagai dinamika pasar keuangan domestik maupun global. Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) Darmin Nasution mengatakan paket kebijakan itu untuk meningkatkan efektivitas transmisi kebijakan moneter, memperkuat stabilitas sistem keuangan, serta mendorong pendalaman pasar keuangan.

* periode 15/05/2010-14/09/2010 Sumber: bloomberg

US: •

• • •

• • • • • • •

Net capital inflows yang masuk ke US sejumlah US$15 billion untuk bulan April, menurun dari angka inflow bulan Maret yang sebesar US$26bn. Negara China merupakan investor besar untuk US treasuries setelah meningkatkan porsi investasinya menjadi US$900.2bn. Angka US initial jobless claims meningkat sebesar 12k menjadi 472k pada pekan lalu. US current account deficit melebar untuk tiga kuartal berturut menjadi $109 billion untuk kuartal bulan Maret. US consumer prices menurun 0.2% dibulan Mei – merupakan penurunan paling besar untuk 18 bulan terakhir karena menurunnya harga energy. Angka inflasi tahunan menurun dari 2.2% menjadi 2% dibulan Mei. Core CPI (ex food & energy) meningkat 0.1% untuk bulan Mei and 0.9% sepanjang tahun. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index menurun dari 21.4 menjadi 8.0 dibulan Juni – jauh dibawah ekspektasi. US import prices menurun 0.6% dibulan Mei – penurunan terbesar sejak July 2009 – tetapi non-oil prices meningkat 0.5%. Export prices meningkat 0.7% untuk bulan Mei. Index of US homebuilder sentiment menurun dari +22 menjadi +17 dibulan Juni. US industrial production meningkat 1.2% dibulan Mei, diatas angka yang diprediksi sebesar 0.9%. US producer prices menurun 0.3% dibulan Mei tapi producer price inti – diluar makanan dan bahan bakar – meningkat sebanyak 0.2%. US housing starts menurun 10% dibulan Mei karena berakhirnya pemotongan pajak untuk pembangunan rumah.

Credit rating negara Yunani diturunkan menjadi non-investment grade, atau junk oleh Moody’s Investors Service. Menurut Moody’s, penurunan credit rating negara tersebut, dari level A3 menjadi Ba1, lebih disebabkan oleh risiko yang substansiil terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi yang disebabkan oleh austerity measures terkait dengan bantuan paket sebesar 110 milyar euro (134.5 milyar dolar) dari European Union dan International Monetary Fund. Angka ekspor Eropa menurun di bulan April, member signal bahwa pemulihan uni eropa lebih perlahan. Angka surplus perdagangan untuk bulan April sebesar 1.4 billion euros ($1.7 billion) dan angka import menurun 3.5 % dari bulan Maret. Euro-area payrolls tidak mengalami perubahan untuk kuartal pertama tahun 2010 ini. Krisis masalah obligasi di eropa menurunkan kepercayaan diri investor dan memaksa pemerintah untuk memotong belanja. Kepercayaan diri konsumen German menurun dibulan Juni karena kekhawatiran bahwa export akan menganggu pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara tersebut. Angka ekspor Singapore meningkat untuk 7 bulan berturut dibulan Mei karena penjualan elektronik mengimbangi penurunan dari melambatnya penjualan pharmasi. Non-oil domestic exports meningkat 24.4 % dari tahun sebelumnya. Singapura sudah dua kali meningkatkan proyeksi angka pertumbuhan ekonominya tahun ini karena permintaan untuk computer chips dan produk lain meningkat. Ekonomi Singapura meningkat di angka 38.6% annualized untuk 3 bulan terakhir. Angka inflasi negara Malaysia meningkat untuk bulan Mei karena didorong kenaikan harga makanan dan transport. Harga konsumen meningkat 1.6% dari tahun lalu, setelah meningkat 1.5% dibulan April. Bank Sentral Malaysia mengatakan bahwa angka inflasi akan terkontrol untuk tahun ini, dan pemerintah sudah menunda rencana untuk menurunkan subsidi yang dikhawatirkan akan merugikan golongan masyarakat yang kurang mampu.

Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosure and Disclaimer Appendix of this document and on our website at www.commbank.co.id. If you would like to speak to someone regarding the financial instrument described in this report, please contact our call Centre on +62.21 7917 6000 or email us at [email protected] . 1

14-18 Juni 2010

Wealth Weekly

Angka ekspor untuk Thailand meningkat 35.2% di bulan April karena pemulihan global membantu pemulihan permintaan order sehingga menyeimbangkan penurunan ekonomi akibat ketidakstabilan politik dibulan April dan Mei. Pengiriman lewat kapal laut meningkat 42.1 % dibulan Mei ke $16.56 billion, menurut Menteri Perdagangan Minister Porntiva Nakasai. Bank of Thailand mengatakan bahwa dampak dari kekerasan politik terbatas dan memberikan sinyal akan menaikan suku bunga.

MONEY MARKET Lelang Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI) 1-Bulan Raih Dana Rp 8 Triliun. Bunga rata-rata tertimbang (RRT) sebesar 6.26221% per tahun dan akan jatuh tempo pada 8 July 2010. Sementara, lelang SBI 3 bulan berhasil menyerap Rp. 67.2423Triliun dengan bunga RRT 6.59605% per tahun dan lelang SBI 6 bulan menyerap Rp. 16.2232 Triliun dengan bunga RRT 6.72082 % per tahun.

BOND MARKET Imbal Hasil obligasi SUN mengalami penurunan pada pekan lalu sehingga harga obligasi semua tenor mengalami kenaikan. Investor asing mulai menambah porsi kepemilikan terhadap Obligasi Pemerintah Indonesia seiring dengan adanya sedikit profit taking oleh investor local. Sentimen positif kemarin sejalan dengan penguatan harga di pasar saham.Pengumuman Bank Indonesia (BI) mengenai peraturan terbaru telah menekan imbal hasil untuk SUN jangka pendek turun. Funding overnight diperkirakan turun karena BI menurunkan o/n deposit dari 6% ke 5,5%. BI juga mengimplementasikan satu bulan holding period untuk SBI melalui primary market. BI juga memperkenalkan SBI jangka waktu 9 dan 12 bulan. Indonesian Government Bond Benchmark 18 June 2010 Obligasi Negara Obligasi Negara

18-Jun

Seri

11-Jun

%

Harga

18-Jun

11-Jun Yield

∆

% ∆

Tenor

FR0027

106.2

105.25

0.90

7.97

8.20

(2.83)

5

FR0031

118

115.25

2.39

8.37

8.74

(4.20)

10

FR0040

114.8

111.8

2.68

9.17

9.51

(3.57)

15

FR0052

105.622

103

2.55

9.85

10.14

(2.90)

20

FR0050

103

101.75

1.23

10.17

10.31

(1.29)

28

Sumber: Bloomberg.

EQUITY MARKET Indices

IHSG Indonesia Russia MSCI World Japan India Taiwan HK Shanghai US S&P

Price 18-Jun-10

11-Jun-10

Change (%)

2929.59

2801.90

4.56

1409.43

1356.79

3.88

1115.35

1080.68

3.21

9995.02

9705.25

2.99

17570.82

17064.95

2.96

7493.11

7299.49

2.65

11622.69

11340.38

2.49

1117.51

1091.60

2.37

10450.64

10211.07

2.35

1711.95

1675.34

2.19

Mexico

32814.62

32124.28

2.15

HK

20286.71

19872.38

2.08

Malaysia

1317.69

1294.67

1.78

Argentina

2320.36

2281.23

1.72

UK

5250.84

5163.68

1.69

Singapore

2833.40

2796.29

1.33 1.31

US Dow Jones Korea

Brazil

64437.58

63605.38

Australia

4551.90

4505.50

1.03

China

2513.22

2569.94

(2.21)

Harga Saham di US meningkat minggu lalu karena sentiment pos merespon usaha uni Eropa dalam menyelesaikan krisis obligasinya dan ju naiknya angka New York- area manufacturing yang terlihat meningkat.

Harga saham di Eropa meningkat untuk minggu keempat kare kekhawatiran akan krisis obligasi sovereign di uni eropa sudah menurun.

Harga saham di China menurun karena harga saham sektor pharma teknologi dan konsumen menurun karena adanya kekhawatiran bahwa valu sudah tinggi dan tidak sebanding dengan prospek kemungkinan a pengetatan moneter dan penurunan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi. China’s

Harga saham negara-negara Asia meningkat, seiring deng meningkatnya harga emas sampai ke tingkat paling tinggi selama 11 bu terakhir.

Source: bloomberg


14-18 Juni 2010

Wealth Weekly

COMMODITY Oil Wheat

18-Jun

11-Jun

77.18

73.78

Change 4.61%

477.75

457

4.54%

Natural Gas

4.997

4.781

4.52%

Corn

380.5

371

2.56%

Gold

1256.8

1226.7

2.45%

930.5

909.25

2.34%

89.3

89.5

-0.22%

6315.5

6462

-2.27%

94

96.75

-2.84%

Soybean Live Cattle Copper Coal Index

Oil (minyak) meningkat sampai ke atas $77 per barel menyusul kenaik indeks saham S&P500.

Wheat (Gandum) meningkat karena spekulasi bahwa lahan selama mus dingin terganggung karena musim hujan yang berlebihan.

Soybean (kedelai) meningkat karena hujan di kanada menunda penanam bibit canola dan menambah permintaan untuk bibit oilseed.

Corn (jagung) meningkat karena adanya spekulasi bahwa China, konsum terbesar kedua, akan menambah permintaan impor.

Gold (emas) meningkat ke angka tertinggi $1,263.70 per ounce kare masalah di fiscal di Eropa dan kekhawatiran tentang pertumbuhan ekonomi di U membuat investor mengumpulkan asset safe haven ini. Cattle (sapi) menurun karena menurunnya harga sapi di US memberikan signal bahwa permintaan untuk daging berkurang. Sugar

15.38

15.84

-2.90%

Source: Bloomberg

Sugar (gula) menurun menyusul signal meningkatnya suplai di India, produsen gula kedua terbesar.

APPENDIX PRODUK REKSADANA 4 produk reksadana Money Market berkinerja terbaik berdasarkan Sharpe Ratio : No

Fund

Return*

Mean Return*

Std Dev*

Sharpe Ratio 1.12

1

Mandiri Investa Pasar Uang

0.46%

0.51%

0.06%

2

Seruni Pasar Uang II

0.50%

0.45%

0.03%

0.28

3

Schroder Dana Likuid

0.39%

0.42%

0.06%

(0.31)

4

Manulife Dana Kas II

0.30%

0.38%

0.09%

(0.67)

* Last 30 days return, 1-year mean return, standard deviation, Sharpe ratio based on 22 June 2010 data

5 produk Reksadana Pendapatan Tetap berkinerja terbaik berdasarkan Sharpe Ratio: No

Fund

Return*

Mean Return*

Std Dev*

Sharpe Ratio

1

Reksa Dana PNM Amanah Syariah

0.70%

0.86%

0.21%

2.02

2

Danareksa JS Optima

2.56%

1.45%

1.44%

0.70

3

Schroder Dana Mantap Plus II

2.90%

1.54%

2.11%

0.52

4

Mandiri Investa Dana Obligasi Seri II

2.17%

1.38%

1.93%

0.49

5

PNM Dana Sejahtera II

1.13%

0.60%

0.36%

0.46


5 produk reksadana Balance Fund berkinerja terbaik berdasarkan Sharpe Ratio: N

Fund

*

Return

Mean Return *

Std Dev *

Ratio

Sharpe

1

Schroder Dana Terpadu II

1.11%

2.42%

3.62%

0.55

2

Manulife Dana Tumbuh Berimbang

0.55%

3.04%

4.89%

0.53

3

Schroder Dana Kombinasi

1.67%

1.27%

1.56%

0.53

4

Manulife Dana Stabil Berimbang

2.08%

2.01%

3.00%

0.52

5

Manulife Dana Campuran II

1.82%

2.53%

4.01%

0.52



14-18 Juni 2010

Wealth Weekly

5 produk reksadana Equity Fund berkinerja terbaik berdasarkan Sharpe Ratio: N

Fund

*

Return

Mean Return *

Std Dev *

Ratio

Sharpe

1

Manulife Syariah Sektoral Amanah

1.41%

3.61%

5.87%

0.54

2

Manulife Saham Andalan

1.64%

3.61%

6.06%

0.52

3

First State Indoequity Sectoral Fund

2.49%

3.60%

6.25%

0.51

4

Schroder Dana Prestasi Plus

2.15%

3.44%

6.01%

0.50

5

Manulife Dana Saham

2.23%

3.33%

5.84%

0.49


OFFSHORE FUNDS No

Product

NAV

NAV

+/-

18-Jun-10

11-Jun-10

%

1

First State Asian Bridge Fund

13.54

13.31

1.73%

2

First State Asian Equity Plus Fund I

28.45

27.71

2.67%

3

First State Asia Innovation and Technology Fund I

23.14

22.35

3.53%

4

First State China Growth Fund I

88.68

85.30

3.96%

5

First State Global Emerging Markets Leaders Fund I

16.07

15.45

4.01%

6

First State Greater China Growth Fund I

48.56

47.21

2.86%

7

First State Indian Subcontinent Fund I

37.97

37.09

2.37%

8

First State Asian Growth Fund I

25.34

24.52

3.34%

9

First State Global Resources Fund

11.89

11.47

3.66%

10

First State Hong Kong Growth Fund I

34.90

34.01

2.62%

11

First State Singapore and Malaysia Growth Fund I

30.75

29.93

2.74%

12

First State Asian Property Securities Fund

13

UBS (CH) Equity Fund - Emerging Asia

14

UBS (CH) Equity Fund - Emerging Markets

15

UBS (CH) Equity Fund - Gold

16

UBS (CH) Equity Fund - Latin America

17

UBS (CH) Equity Fund - Eastern Europe

18

UBS (CH) Bond Fund - Convert Asia

19

UBS (CH) Equity Fund - Asia

20

UBS (CH) Strategy Fund - Yield (USD)

21

UBS (CH) Equity Fund - Energy

22

UBS (CH) Equity Fund - Global Materials

23

UBS (CH) Equity Fund - South Africa

24

UBS (CH) Equity Fund - Pacific

25

UBS (CH) Commodity Fund - USD

26 27

5.00

4.89

2.25%

67.13

64.07

4.78%

2483.08

2345.33

5.87%

597.61

564.39

5.89%

1830.69

1768.17

3.54%

902.33

884

2.07%

175.67

173.9

1.02%

981.12

944.78

3.85%

94.73

93.94

0.84%

267.95

260.61

2.82%

1008.45

968.98

4.07%

319.16

296.09

7.79%

717.67

691.61

3.77%

81.59

79.46

2.68%

UBS (LUX) Equity Fund - Australia B

657.91

656.53

0.21%

UBS (LUX) Equity Fund - Hong Kong B

610.94

593.29

2.97%

28

UBS (LUX) Equity Fund - Greater China B

198.05

194.99

1.57%

29

UBS (LUX) Equity Fund - Taiwan B

114.78

111.41

3.02%

30

UBS (LUX) Equity Fund - Small Caps USA B

377.67

363.38

3.93%

31

UBS (LUX) Equity Sicav - Russia B

118.35

114.86

3.04%

32

UBS (LUX) Equity Fund - Malaysia B

591.62

582.84

1.51%

33

UBS (LUX) Equity Fund - Singapore B

864.11

834.20

3.59%

34

UBS (LUX) Equity Fund - Emerging Market (USD) B

25.57

24.37

4.92%

35

UBS (LUX) Equity Fund - Emerging Market (EUR) B

23.77

23.19

2.50%

36

UBS (LUX) Equity Fund - Financial Services B

70.47

69.14

1.92%

37

UBS (LUX) Equity Sicav - Brazil B

100.09

96.86

3.33%

38

UBS (Lux) Bond Sicav - Brazil (USD) B

127.62

124.38

2.60%


14-18 Juni 2010

Wealth Weekly

39

UBS (LUX) Equity Fund - Health Care B

112.25

110.19

1.87%

40

UBS (LUX) Key Selection Sicav-Asian Equities (USD) B

121.37

115.95

4.67%

41

UBS (LUX) Equity Fund-Central Europe B

172.8

170.65

1.26%

42

UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - Asian Consumption B

85.64

81.75

4.76%

43

UBS (Lux) Equity Fund – Emerging Markets Infrastructure B

59.26

57.67

2.76%

44

UBS (Lux) Emerging EC Fund Global Bonds

1470.66

1441.89

2.00%

45

UBS (Lux) Emerging EC Fund Lat AM Bonds

5039.33

4929.58

2.23%

46

UBS (Lux) Equity Sicav USA Value USD B

160.54

157.43

1.98%

47

UBS (Lux) Key Selection Sicav - Global Allocation

48

UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - EURO STOXX 50 B

50

UBS (Lux) Strategy Sicav - «Rogers Int. Comm. Index®» (USD) B

51

UBS (Lux) Equity Sicav – Emerging Markets Innovators B

52

UBS (LUX) Bond Fund - AUD B

53

Franklin Global Growth Fund Class A (acc) - 789

54

Franklin Asian Flex Cap Fund Class A (dis) USD - 448

55

Franklin Mutual European Fund Class A (acc) USD - 794

56

Pioneer Funds – Greater China Equity

57 58 59

Pioneer Funds – Global Select

60

Pioneer Funds – European Small Companies

61

10.87

10.65

2.07%

137.06

131.92

3.90%

81.56

79.03

3.20%

88.54

84.65

4.60%

341.97

342.24

-0.08%

9.71

9.41

3.19%

11.70

11.34

3.17%

20.05

19.14

4.75%

11.01

10.71

2.80%

Pioneer Funds – Pacific (Ex. Japan) Equity

7.92

7.66

3.39%

Pioneer Funds – U.S. Pioneer Fund

5.01

4.87

2.87%

62.80

60.20

4.32%

8.23

8.02

2.62%

Pioneer Funds – Global Ecology

155.87

153.26

1.70%

62

Pioneer Funds – Global Ecology $

193.01

185.34

4.14%

63

Pioneer Fund - Emerging Europe and Mediterr Equity

18.23

18.10

0.72%

64

Pioneer Fund - Emerging Markets Equity

9.61

9.15

5.03%

65

ING China Access Fund

6.55

6.39

2.50%

66

ING (L) Invest New Asia

867.68

834.88

3.93%

67

ING (L) Invest Energy

1126.64

1091.94

3.18%

68

ING (L) Invest Greater China

69

ING (L) INV Latin America

70

ING (L) INV Prestige & Luxe

71

LionGlobal Singapore/Malaysia Fund

72 73

690.72

671.67

2.84%

2722.49

2643.47

2.99%

410.71

405.94

1.18%

2.109

2.075

1.64%

LionGlobal Thailand Fund US$ *)

1.589

1.550

2.52%

LionGlobal South East Asia Fund US$

0.834

0.804

3.73%

DISCLAIMER

Unless otherwise noted, all data is sourced from mass media news, and not issued by PT Bank Commonwealth (PTBC). PTBC must be indemnified from any responsibilities, included but not limited to law prosecution by third party. PTBC and their directors, employees and representatives are referred to in this Appendix as “the Group”.” This report is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments. This report has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation and capacity to bear loss, knowledge, experience or needs of any specific person who may receive this report. No member of the Group does, or is required to; assess the appropriateness or suitability of the report for recipients who therefore do not benefit from any regulatory protections in this regard. This report is not advice. All recipients should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness and suitability of the information, having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs, and, if necessary seek the appropriate professional, foreign exchange or financial advice regarding the content of this report before making an investment decision. We believe that the information in this report is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made, based on the information available at the time of its compilation, but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made in this report. Any opinions, conclusions or recommendations set forth in this report are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions, conclusions or recommendations expressed elsewhere by the Group. We are under no obligation to, and do not, update or keep current the information contained in this report. The Group does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report. Any valuations, projections and forecasts contained in this report are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Different assumptions and estimates could result in materially different results. The Group does not represent or warrant that any of these valuations, projections or forecasts, or any of the underlying assumptions or estimates, will be met. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The Group do not guarantee the performance of investment products or the repayment of capital by products distributed by PTBC. Investments in these products are not deposits or other liabilities of the group or its subsidiaries and investment–type products are subject to investment risk including loss of income and capital invested. Examples used in this communication are for illustration only. All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to the Group. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior written permission of the appropriate entity within the Group. The Group, its agents, associates and clients have or have had long or short positions in the securities or other financial instruments referred to herein, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales in such interests or securities as principal or agent, including selling to or buying from clients on a principal basis and may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with this report. Please view our website at www.commbank.co.id for more information. If you would like to speak to someone regarding the financial instrument described in this report, please contact our call Centre on +62.21 7917 6000 or email us at [email protected] .


WEALTH WEEKLY Juni 2010 ECONOMY

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