Weekly Technical View

Weekly Technical View Hope for 2Q15 Result

Technical Report Jul 27, 2015

T. Heldy Arifien +62-21-5151140 [email protected]

Ulasan IHSG 3 hari perdagangan pasca libur panjang iedul fitri, pergerakan IHSG cenderung mengalami tekanan jual. Minimnya sentimen positif kali ini, justru menekan IHSG kembali di area 4,820-4,850 setelah sebelumnya gagal melakukan penetrasi resistensi dari tren support ascending triangle 4,913-4,915. Di akhir pekan kemarin, para investor cenderung merealisasikan keuntungan, terutama pada saham saham dengan nilai kapitalisasi besar (Big Cap). Munculnya wacana kenaikan bea masuk terhadap sejumlah barang komoditas, serta pelemahan permintaan ekspor komoditas pertambangan dari China merupakan katalis negatif yang mendominasi penurunan harga serta tekanan jual di penghujung pekan perdagangan kemarin, Hit and Run pada sejumlah saham, marak dilakukan oleh para pelaku pasar asing maupun lokal. Selayaknya mencoba mengeliminir serta meminimalisasi kerugian yang diakibatkan oleh tekanan pelemahan IHSG tersebut.

Table 1. Performa Saham Berkapitalisasi Besar Perubahan Harga Kode

Harga

(%)

Rata”

(Pts)

3hr

/Hari

3hr

Weight to

Rata” /Hari

IDX (%)

5 Saham yang menahan laju penguatan IHSG

ASII

6,650

-2.56

-0.51

-7.45

-1.49

-56.20

AALI

22,925

-8.21

-1.64

-3.39

-0.68

-25.61

UNTR

18,475

-4.15

-0.83

-3.14

-0.63

-23.68

PGAS

4,100

-2.73

-0.55

-2.93

-0.59

-22.12

SMGR

11,225

-3.02

-0.60

-2.18

-0.44

-16.47

5 Saham yang menahan laju tekanan IHSG

BBCA TLKM

13,725

0.33

5.77

1.15

43.57

1.06

0.21

3.18

0.64

23.99

GGRM

51,000

2.93

0.59

2.93

0.59

22.14

SILO

15,900

11.97

2.39

2.07

0.41

15.59

5.86

1.17

1.35

0.27

10.16

- 0.82

12.82

- 2.56

- 11.07

AKRA

2,855

1.67

5,875

Source:Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia

ASII

7,000

- 4.11

Trading Strategy Source:Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Trading

Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Indonesia but not in any other jurisdiction. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.

Technical Analysis

Rekomendasi

Trading Sell

IHSG Sentimen/Katalis

Support

4,850

Resistance

4,890

Close

4,859

Pada perdagangan pekan ini para pelaku pasar diperkirakan cenderung “wait and see”, mencoba mencerna perkembangan kondisi makro global yang diiringi oleh rilis laporan kinerja keuangan emiten 2Q15. Bargain Hunting sejumlah saham yang telah mengalami tekanan cukup dalam, akan menjadi perhatian bagi sejumlah pelaku pasar untuk menentukan posisi.

Technical View Stop-Loss

4,820

Basis support 4,820-4,850 merupakan batas pertahanan area distribusi koreksi bagi IHSG, yang terbentuk sejak pertengahan Juni 2015. Pada kondisi tersebut stochastic berada pada rerata 43.9% atau area oversold trading, dengan basis terendah berada pada area oversold 0.00%-12.00% serta memberikan indikasi bahwa volatilitas pergerakan IHSG relatif rendah dan area support tersebut masih mampu menahan tekanan yang mungkin masih akan membayangi pergerakan IHSG di pekan ini. Minimnya signal pembalikan arah maupun sentimen positif untuk mendorong IHSG bergerak pada kembali pada 4,900 juga akan terkendala dengan ekspektasi perlambatan pertumbuhan keuangan perusahaan emiten-emiten yang akan mulai dirilis pekan ini. Kami perkirakan IHSG akan bergerak dalam ruang yang terbatas (sideways) dalam rentang harga 4,820-4,930.

Key Charts

Chart 1. Daily Chart

Chart 2. Weekly Chart

Source: HOTS KDB Daewoo Securities Research


KDB Daewoo Securities Research

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Recommendation

Trading

Stock in Focus PT AKR Corporindo, Tbk (AKRA)

Support

5,350

Resistance

6,225

Close

5,875

Stop-Loss

5,200

Recommendation

Buy on Weakness

Support

5,600

Akumulasi kenaikan selama sepekan kemarin AKRA berhasil mengantongi keuntungan sebesar 5.8%, ditutup pada level harga IDR5,875 dengan masih menyediakan ruang untuk penguatan dari kondisi overbought trading 66.9% pada pekan ini, AKRA diperkirakan akan mencoba melakukan penetrasi pada area resistensi IDR6,225, sekaligus menciptakan rekor harga baru pada retracement target IDR6,300

PT Jasa Marga(Persero), Tbk (JSMR) Di akhir pekan perdagangan kemarin, JSMR membukukan kenaikan 2,2% dan ditutup pada level harga IDR5,900 untuk selanjutnya mencoba penetrasi resistensi

Resistance

6,400

Close

5,900

Stop-Loss

5,275

IDR6,000 keluar dari area distribusi channel IDR5,700-6,000. Pada pekan ini, kami perkirakan JSMR akan mencoba kembali bergerak menguji penetrasi resistensi IDR6,000 selanjutnya mencapai resistensi retracement IDR6,400.

Chart 3 AKRA (Weekly)

Chart 4. JSMR (Weekly)




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Technical Analysis

Recommendation

Buy on Weakness

Support

1,500

Resistance

1,650

Close

1,540

Stop-Loss

1,450

Recommendation

Trading Buy

Support

11,200

Resistance

12,500

Close

11,225

Stop-Loss

11,100

PT Holcim Indonesia, Tbk (SMCB) Munculnya indikasi golden cross MA(5,20) pada SMCB ditengah volatilitas pergerakan harga yang cenderung cukup tinggi. Akumulasi selama sepekan kemarin, SMCB mengantungi keuntungan sebesar 2.8% dan ditutup pada level harga IDR1,540, masih memiliki ruang untuk melanjutkan penguatan menguji resistensi harga IDR1,650,

PT Semen Indonesia(Persero), Tbk (SMGR) Akhir pekan lalu SMGR membukukan akumulasi penurunan -3.04% dan ditutup pada level harga IDR11,225 mendekati area terendah IDR11,125 sebagai basis support harga di 2015. Dengan adanya SMGR pada area terendah stochastic 0% pada chart berbasis weekly maupun daily, mengindikasikan ruang pelemahan sudah terbatas dan pembalikan arah dapat sewaktu-waktu terjadi di area support IDR11,100-11,225.

Chart 5. SMCB (Weekly)

Chart 6. SMGR (Weekly)

Source:HOTS, KDB Daewoo Securities Research

Source: HOTS, KDB Daewoo Securities Research


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Disclaimers

This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (DWS). It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates inclu ded in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of DWS and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of DWS, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither DWS, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. © PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia 2014.


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Weekly Technical View

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