Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 1. Jumlah Penduduk Sumatera Utara (1996-2010) Tahun Jumlah Penduduk 1996 11.306.300 1997 11.463.400 1998 11.754.100 1999 11.955.400 2000 11.513.973 2001 11.722.548 2002 11.847.075 2003 11.890.399 2004 12.123.360 2005 12.326.678 2006 12.643.494 2007 12.834.371 2008 13.042.317 2009 13.243.386 2010 12.982.204 Sumber : BPS, 2012.

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 2 . Luas Panen, Produktivitas dan Produksi Ubi Kayu (1996-2010) No.

Tahun

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Rataan Sumber : BPS, 2012.

Luas Panen (Ha) 35.246 37.436 40.917 41.235 40.315 41.233 36.119 33.452 37.313 40.717 35.996 34.812 37.941 38.611 32.402 563.745 37.583

Produktivitas (Kw/Ha) 120 120 119 119 119 123 122 123 125 125 126 125,98 194,19 260,88 279,48 2.201,53 146,7687

Produksi (Ton) 421.460 449.026 488.149 490.601 480.128 507.519 441.819 411.990 464.960 509.796 452.450 438.573 736.771 1.007.284 905.571 7.198,813 479,9209


Lampiran 3. Luas Panen, Produktivitas dan Produksi Ubi Jalar (1996-2010) No. Tahun Luas Panen Produktivitas Produksi (Ha) (Kw/Ha) (Ton) 1. 1996 13.438 88 118.348 2. 1997 12.568 89 111.156 3. 1998 12.015 89 106.618 4. 1999 14.304 94 134.642 5. 2000 13.631 93 126.961 6. 2001 12.464 95 118.183 7. 2002 12.405 95 118.170 8. 2003 14.280 95 135.661 9. 2004 12.227 95,93 117.295 10. 2005 12.014 96,33 115.728 11. 2006 10.630 96,62 102.712 12. 2007 12.129 96,99 117.641 13. 2008 10.316 110,69 114.186 14. 2009 12.359 113,39 140.138 15. 2010 14.874 120,61 179.388 189.654 1468.56 1856.827 Rataan 12.6436 97.904 123.7885 Sumber : BPS, 2012.


Lampiran 4. Konsumsi Ubi Kayu 2010) Tahun Konsumsi Ubi Kayu (Kg/Kap/Tahun) 1996 7,76 1997 7,76 1998 7,76 1999 7,76 2000 7,76 2001 7,76 2002 15,8 2003 15,8 2004 15,8 2005 19,4 2006 19,4 2007 11,0 2008 8,62 2009 7,49 2010 17,61 Total Rataan Sumber : BKP, 2012.

Penduduk Sumatera Utara (1996Jumlah Penduduk (Jiwa) 11.306.300 11.463.400 11.754.100 11.955.400 11.513.973 11.722.548 11.847.075 11.890.399 12.123.360 12.326.678 12.643.494 12.834.371 13.042.317 13.243.386 12.982.204

Total Konsumsi Ubi Kayu (Ton) 87.736,888 88.955,984 91.211,816 92.773,904 89.348,430 90.966,972 187.183,785 187.868,304 191.549,088 239.137,553 245.283,784 141.178,081 112.424,773 99.192,961 228.616,612 2.173.428,936 144.895,262


Lampiran 5. Konsumsi Ubi Jalar 2010) Tahun Konsumsi Ubi Jalar (Kg/Kap/Tahun) 1996 2,93 1997 2,93 1998 2,93 1999 2,93 2000 2,93 2001 2,93 2002 3,40 2003 3,40 2004 3,40 2005 1,90 2006 1,90 2007 1,60 2008 1,31 2009 0,79 2010 1,28 Total Rataan Sumber : BKP, 2012.

Penduduk Sumatera Utara (1996Jumlah Penduduk (Jiwa) 11.306.300 11.463.400 11.754.100 11.955.400 11.513.973 11.722.548 11.847.075 11.890.399 12.123.360 12.326.678 12.643.494 12.834.371 13.042.317 13.243.386 12.982.204

Total Konsumsi Ubi Jalar (Ton) 33.127,459 33.587,762 34.439,513 35.029,322 33.735,941 34.347,066 40.280,055 40.427,357 41.219,424 23.420,688 24.022,639 20.534,994 17.085,435 10.462,275 16.617,221 438.337,149 29.222,477


Lampiran 6. Trend Produksi Ubi Kayu dengan Metode Least Square 547073.133 Tahun

Produksi Ubi Kayu

1996

421460

1997

449026

1998

488149

1999

490601

2000

480128

2001

507519

2002

441819

X 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

2003

411990

2004

X2

XY

Y'

Y-Y'

27564.229 (Y-Y')2

49

-2950220

354123.53

67336.47

4534200192

36

-2694156

381687.759

67338.241

4534438701

25

-2440745

409251.988

78897.012

6224738503

16

-1962404

436816.217

53784.783

2892802882

9

-1440384

464380.446

15747.554

247985457

4

-1015038

491944.675

15574.325

242559599.2

1

-441819

519508.904

-77689.904

6035721184

0

0

0

547073.133

-135083.133

18247452821

464960

1

1

464960

574637.362

-109677.362

12029123735

2005

509796

2

4

1019592

602201.591

-92405.591

8538793248

2006

452450

3

9

1357350

629765.82

-177315.82

31440900022

2007

438573

4

16

1754292

657330.049

-218757.049

47854646487

2008

736771

5

25

3683855

684894.278

51876.722

2691194285

2009

1007284

6

36

6043704

712458.507

294825.493

86922071323

2010

905571

7

49

6338997

740022.736

165548.264

27406227713

Jumlah

8206097

280

7717984

2.59843E+11


Metode least square Tahun

Y

Y'

1996

421460

354123.53

1997

449026

381687.759

1998

488149

409251.988

1999

490601

436816.217

2000

480128

464380.446

2001

507519

491944.675

2002

441819

519508.904

2003

411990

547073.133

2004

464960

574637.362

2005

509796

602201.591

2006

452450

629765.82

2007

438573

657330.049

2008

736771

684894.278

2009

1007284

712458.507

2010

905571

740022.736

Produksi (ton)

Trend Produksi Ubi kayu dengan Metode least square 1500000 1000000 500000

Y

0

Y'

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 tahun


Lampiran 7. Trend Produksi Ubi Jalar dengan Metode Least Square Tahun

Produksi Ubi Jalar (Y)

X

X2

XY

Y'

(Y-Y')2

Y-Y'

1996

118348

-7

-828436

49

111476.567

6871.433333

47216596.05

1997

111156

-6

-666936

36

113235.41

-2079.409524

4323943.968

1998

106618

-5

-533090

25

114994.252

-8376.252381

70161603.95

1999

134642

-4

-538568

16

116753.095

17888.90476

320012913.6

2000

126961

-3

-380883

9

118511.938

8449.061905

71386647.07

2001

118183

-2

-236366

4

120270.781

-2087.780952

4358829.305

2002

118170

-1

-118170

1

122029.624

-3859.62381

14896695.95

2003

135661

0

0

0

123788.467

11872.53333

140957047.8

2004

117295

1

117295

1

125547.31

-8252.309524

68100612.48

2005

115728

2

231456

4

127306.152

-11578.15238

134053612.6

2006

102712

3

308136

9

129064.995

-26352.99524

694480358

2007

117641

4

470564

16

130823.838

-13182.8381

173787220.2

2008

114186

5

570930

25

132582.681

-18396.68095

338437870.1

2009

140138

6

840828

36

134341.524

5796.47619

33599136.23

2010

179388

7

1255716

49

136100.367

43287.63333

1873819200

Jumlah

1856827

492476

280

3,989,592,286.82


Metode Least Square Tahun 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Y 118348 111156 106618 134642 126961 118183 118170 135661 117295 115728 102712 117641 114186 140138 179388

Y' 111476.5667 113235.4095 114994.2524 116753.0952 118511.9381 120270.781 122029.6238 123788.4667 125547.3095 127306.1524 129064.9952 130823.8381 132582.681 134341.5238 136100.3667

Trend Produksi Ubi Jalar dengan Metode Trend Least Square produksi (ton)

200000 150000 100000

Y

50000

Y'

0 19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 tahun


Lampiran 8. Trend Konsumsi Ubi Kayu dengan Metode Least Square Tahun

Total Konsumsi

X

X2

XY

Y'

Y-Y'

(Y-Y')2

Ubi Kayu (Y) 1996

87736.888

-7

-614158.216

49

92000.91358

-4264.025583

18181914.18

1997

88955.984

-6

-533735.904

36

99557.24912

-10601.26512

112386822.1

1998

91211.816

-5

-456059.08

25

107113.5847

-15901.76865

252866246.3

1999

92773.904

-4

-371095.616

16

114669.9202

-21896.01619

479435525

2000

89348.43

-3

-268045.29

9

122226.2557

-32877.82573

1080951424

2001

90966.972

-2

-181933.944

4

129782.5913

-38815.61926

1506652299

2002

187183.785

-1

-187183.785

1

137338.9268

49844.8582

2484509889

2003

187868.304

0

0

0

144895.2623

42973.04167

1846682310

2004

191549.088

1

191549.088

1

152451.5979

39097.49013

1528613735

2005

239137.553

2

478275.106

4

160007.9334

79129.6196

6261496697

2006

245283.784

3

735851.352

9

167564.2689

77719.51506

6040323021

2007

141178.081

4

564712.324

16

175120.6045

-33942.52348

1152094900

2008

112424.773

5

562123.865

25

182676.94

-70252.16701

4935366970

2009

99192.961

6

595157.766

36

190233.2755

-91040.31455

8288338873

2010

228616.612

7

1600316.284

49

197789.6111

30827.00092

950303985.5

Jumlah

2173428.935

2115773.95

280

36,938,204,611.29


Metode Least Square Tahun Y 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

87736.888 88955.984 91211.816 92773.904 89348.43 90966.972 187183.785 187868.304 191549.088 239137.553 245283.784 141178.081 112424.773 99192.961 228616.612

Y' 92000.91358 99557.24912 107113.5847 114669.9202 122226.2557 129782.5913 137338.9268 144895.2623 152451.5979 160007.9334 167564.2689 175120.6045 182676.94 190233.2755 197789.6111

konsumsi 9ton0

Trend Total Konsumsi Ubi Kayu dengan Metode trend Least Square 300000 200000 100000

Y

0

Y'

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 tahun


Lampiran 9. Trend Konsumsi Ubi Jalar dengan Metode Least Square Tahun

Total Konsumsi Ubi Jalar (Y)

X

X2

XY

Y'

Y-Y'

(Y-Y')2

1996

33127.459

-7

-231892.213

49

40450.61622

-7323.157221

53628631.69

1997

33587.762

-6

-201526.572

36

38846.59628

-5258.834283

27655338.02

1998

34439.513

-5

-172197.565

25

37242.57635

-2803.063346

7857164.12

1999

35029.322

-4

-140117.288

16

35638.55641

-609.2344079

371166.5638

2000

33735.94089

-3

-101207.823

9

34034.53647

-298.5955801

89159.32046

2001

34347.06564

-2

-68694.1313

4

32430.51653

1916.549108

3673160.482

2002

40280.055

-1

-40280.055

1

30826.49659

9453.558405

89369766.52

2003

40427.3566

0

0

0

29222.47666

11204.87994

125549334.5

2004

41219.424

1

41219.424

1

27618.45672

13600.96728

184986311

2005

23420.6882

2

46841.3764

4

26014.43678

-2593.748581

6727531.703

2006

24022.6386

3

72067.9158

9

24410.41684

-387.7782435

150371.9661

2007

20534.9936

4

82139.9744

16

22806.39691

-2271.403306

5159272.977

2008

17085.43527

5

85427.17635

25

21202.37697

-4116.941698

16949208.94

2009

10462.27494

6

62773.64964

36

19598.35703

-9136.08209

83467995.96

2010

16617.22111

7

116320.5478

49

17994.33709

-1377.11598

1896448.423

Jumlah

438337.1499

-449125.583

280

607,530,862.21


Metode Least Square Tahun 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Y 33127.459 33587.762 34439.513 35029.322 33735.941 34347.065 40280.055 40427.357 41219.424 23420.688 24022.639 20534.994 17085.435 10462.275 16617.221

Y' 40450.616 38846.596 37242.576 35638.556 34034.536 32430.517 30826.487 29222.477 27618.457 26014.437 24410.417 22806.397 21202.377 19598.357 17994.337

konsumsi (ton)

Trend Total Konsumsu Ubi Jalar dengan Metode Least Square 60000 40000 20000

Y

0 19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

Y'

tahun


Lampiran 10. Peramalan Produksi dan Konsumsi Ubi Kayu Sumatera Utara (2015-2025) Tahun 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Notasi Tahun (X) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Produksi Ubi Kayu (Ton) (Y1) 421.460 449.026 488.149 490.601 480.128 507.519 441.819 411.990 464.960 509796 452.450 438.573 736.771 1.007.284 905.571

Konsumsi Ubi Kayu (Ton) (Y2) 87.736,888 88.955,984 91.211,816 92.773,904 89.348,430 90.966,972 187.183,785 187.868,304 191.549,088 239.137,553 245.283,784 141.178,081 112.424,773 99.192,961 228.616,612


• Produksi Ubi Kayu Regression [DataSet0] Descriptive Statistics Mean Produksi Ubi Kayu Tahun

Std. Deviation

N

5.4707E5

1.83728E5

15

.0000

4.47214

15

b

ANOVA Model 1

Sum of Squares

df

Mean Square

Regression

2.127E11

1

2.127E11

Residual

2.598E11

13

1.999E10

Total

4.726E11

14

F

Sig.

10.643

a

.006

a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun b. Dependent Variable: Produksi Ubi Kayu

a

Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1

B (Constant)

547073.133

Std. Error 36503.801

Coefficients Beta

95% Co t

Sig.

14.987


Lower B .000

4682

Tahun

27564.229

8448.988

.671

3.262

a. Dependent Variable: Produksi Ubi Kayu

Charts


.006

93

•

Konsumsi Ubi Kayu

Regression [DataSet0] Descriptive Statistics Mean Konsumsi Ubi Kayu Tahun

Std. Deviation

N

1.4490E5

61485.01702

15

.00000

4.472136

15


b

Model Summary

Model

R

Std. Error of the

Square

Estimate

R Square a

1

Adjusted R

.550

.302

.248

Change S R Square Change

53304.78734

F Change

.302

df

5.627

a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun

b

ANOVA Model 1

Sum of Squares

df

Mean Square

Regression

1.599E10

1

1.599E10

Residual

3.694E10

13

2.841E9

Total

5.293E10

14

F

Sig.

5.627

a

.034

a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi Ubi Kayu

a


B (Constant) Tahun

Std. Error

144895.262

13763.237

7556.336

3185.570

Coefficients Beta

95% Co t

.550

Sig.

Lower B

10.528

.000

1151

2.372

.034

6


a


B (Constant) Tahun

a.

Std. Error

144895.262

13763.237

7556.336

3185.570

Coefficients Beta

95% Co t

.550

Sig.

Lower B

10.528

.000

1151

2.372

.034

6

Dependent Variable: Konsumsi Ubi Kayu

Charts




Angka Ramalan Produksi dan Konsumsi Ubi Kayu Tahun 2015-2025

Tahun

X

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Produksi (Ton) (Y1 =547073.13 + 27564.23 X) 877843.876 905408.104 932972.333 960536.562 988100.790 1015665.019 1043229.247 1070793.476 1098357.704 1125921.933 1153486.162

Konsumsi (Ton) (Y2 = 144895.26 - 7556.34 X) 235571.289 243127.624 250683.960 258240.295 265796.631 273352.966 280909.302 288465.637 296021.973 303578.309 311134.644

Dimana : X = Notasi Tahun (1,2,…dst)


Lampiran 11. Peramalan Produksi dan Konsumsi Ubi Jalar Sumatera Utara (2015-2025) Tahun 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Notasi Tahun (X) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Produksi Ubi Jalar (Ton) (Y1) 118.348 111.156 106.618 134.642 126.961 118.183 118.170 135.661 117.295 115.728 102.712 117.641 114.186 140.138 179.388

Konsumsi Ubi Jalar (Ton) (Y2) 33.127,459 33.587,762 34.439,513 35.029,322 33.735,941 34.347,066 40.280,055 40.427,357 41.219,424 23.420,688 24.022,639 20.534,994 17.085,435 10.462,275 16.617,221


•

Produksi Ubi Jalar

Regression [DataSet0]

Variables Entered/R

Va

Descriptive Statistics Mean Produksi Ubi Jalar Tahun

Std. Deviation

N

1.2379E5

18623.72133

15

.0000

4.47214

15

Model

Variables Entered

1

Tahun

Re

a

a. All requested variables entered.

b. Dependent Variable: Produksi Ub

b

Model Summary

Model

R

R Square a

1

.422 a.

Adjusted R

Std. Error of the

Square

Estimate

.178

.115


17518.26476

F Change

.178

2.823

Predictors: (Constant), Tahun

b

ANOVA Model 1

Sum of Squares

df

Mean Square

Regression

8.662E8

1

8.662E8

Residual

3.990E9

13

3.069E8

Total

4.856E9

14

F 2.823

Sig. a

.117



df

b. Dependent Variable: Produksi Ubi Jalar

a


B (Constant) Tahun

Std. Error

123788.333

4523.197

1758.893

1046.917

Coefficients Beta

95% Co t

.422

Sig.

Lower B

27.367

.000

1140

1.680

.117

-5

a. Dependent Variable: Produksi Ubi Jalar


Charts



•

Konsumsi Ubi Jalar

Regression [DataSet0]

Variables Entered/R Descriptive Statistics Mean Konsumsi Ubi Jalar Tahun

Va

Std. Deviation

N

2.9222E4

9739.23307

15

.00000

4.472136

15

Model

Variables Entered

1

Tahun

Re

a

a. All requested variables entered.

b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi U

b

Model Summary

Model

R

R Square a

1

.737

Adjusted R

Std. Error of the

Square

Estimate

.543

.507


6836.16437

F Change

.543

15.415


b

ANOVA Model 1

Sum of Squares

df

Mean Square

Regression

7.204E8

1

7.204E8

Residual

6.075E8

13

4.673E7

Total

1.328E9

14

F 15.415

Sig. a

.002



df

b.

Dependent Variable: Konsumsi Ubi Jalar

a


B

Std. Error

(Constant)

29222.477

1765.090

Tahun

-1604.020

408.539

Coefficients Beta

95% Co t

-.737

Sig.

Lower B

16.556

.000

254

-3.926

.002

-24

a. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi Ubi Jalar


Charts


Universitas Sumatera Utara

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