Lampiran 1. Jumlah Penduduk Sumatera Utara (1996-2010) Tahun Jumlah Penduduk 1996 11.306.300 1997 11.463.400 1998 11.754.100 1999 11.955.400 2000 11.513.973 2001 11.722.548 2002 11.847.075 2003 11.890.399 2004 12.123.360 2005 12.326.678 2006 12.643.494 2007 12.834.371 2008 13.042.317 2009 13.243.386 2010 12.982.204 Sumber : BPS, 2012.
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2 . Luas Panen, Produktivitas dan Produksi Ubi Kayu (1996-2010) No.
Tahun
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Rataan Sumber : BPS, 2012.
Luas Panen (Ha) 35.246 37.436 40.917 41.235 40.315 41.233 36.119 33.452 37.313 40.717 35.996 34.812 37.941 38.611 32.402 563.745 37.583
Produktivitas (Kw/Ha) 120 120 119 119 119 123 122 123 125 125 126 125,98 194,19 260,88 279,48 2.201,53 146,7687
Produksi (Ton) 421.460 449.026 488.149 490.601 480.128 507.519 441.819 411.990 464.960 509.796 452.450 438.573 736.771 1.007.284 905.571 7.198,813 479,9209
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3. Luas Panen, Produktivitas dan Produksi Ubi Jalar (1996-2010) No. Tahun Luas Panen Produktivitas Produksi (Ha) (Kw/Ha) (Ton) 1. 1996 13.438 88 118.348 2. 1997 12.568 89 111.156 3. 1998 12.015 89 106.618 4. 1999 14.304 94 134.642 5. 2000 13.631 93 126.961 6. 2001 12.464 95 118.183 7. 2002 12.405 95 118.170 8. 2003 14.280 95 135.661 9. 2004 12.227 95,93 117.295 10. 2005 12.014 96,33 115.728 11. 2006 10.630 96,62 102.712 12. 2007 12.129 96,99 117.641 13. 2008 10.316 110,69 114.186 14. 2009 12.359 113,39 140.138 15. 2010 14.874 120,61 179.388 189.654 1468.56 1856.827 Rataan 12.6436 97.904 123.7885 Sumber : BPS, 2012.
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4. Konsumsi Ubi Kayu 2010) Tahun Konsumsi Ubi Kayu (Kg/Kap/Tahun) 1996 7,76 1997 7,76 1998 7,76 1999 7,76 2000 7,76 2001 7,76 2002 15,8 2003 15,8 2004 15,8 2005 19,4 2006 19,4 2007 11,0 2008 8,62 2009 7,49 2010 17,61 Total Rataan Sumber : BKP, 2012.
Penduduk Sumatera Utara (1996Jumlah Penduduk (Jiwa) 11.306.300 11.463.400 11.754.100 11.955.400 11.513.973 11.722.548 11.847.075 11.890.399 12.123.360 12.326.678 12.643.494 12.834.371 13.042.317 13.243.386 12.982.204
Total Konsumsi Ubi Kayu (Ton) 87.736,888 88.955,984 91.211,816 92.773,904 89.348,430 90.966,972 187.183,785 187.868,304 191.549,088 239.137,553 245.283,784 141.178,081 112.424,773 99.192,961 228.616,612 2.173.428,936 144.895,262
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 5. Konsumsi Ubi Jalar 2010) Tahun Konsumsi Ubi Jalar (Kg/Kap/Tahun) 1996 2,93 1997 2,93 1998 2,93 1999 2,93 2000 2,93 2001 2,93 2002 3,40 2003 3,40 2004 3,40 2005 1,90 2006 1,90 2007 1,60 2008 1,31 2009 0,79 2010 1,28 Total Rataan Sumber : BKP, 2012.
Penduduk Sumatera Utara (1996Jumlah Penduduk (Jiwa) 11.306.300 11.463.400 11.754.100 11.955.400 11.513.973 11.722.548 11.847.075 11.890.399 12.123.360 12.326.678 12.643.494 12.834.371 13.042.317 13.243.386 12.982.204
Total Konsumsi Ubi Jalar (Ton) 33.127,459 33.587,762 34.439,513 35.029,322 33.735,941 34.347,066 40.280,055 40.427,357 41.219,424 23.420,688 24.022,639 20.534,994 17.085,435 10.462,275 16.617,221 438.337,149 29.222,477
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6. Trend Produksi Ubi Kayu dengan Metode Least Square 547073.133 Tahun
Produksi Ubi Kayu
1996
421460
1997
449026
1998
488149
1999
490601
2000
480128
2001
507519
2002
441819
X 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
2003
411990
2004
X2
XY
Y'
Y-Y'
27564.229 (Y-Y')2
49
-2950220
354123.53
67336.47
4534200192
36
-2694156
381687.759
67338.241
4534438701
25
-2440745
409251.988
78897.012
6224738503
16
-1962404
436816.217
53784.783
2892802882
9
-1440384
464380.446
15747.554
247985457
4
-1015038
491944.675
15574.325
242559599.2
1
-441819
519508.904
-77689.904
6035721184
0
0
0
547073.133
-135083.133
18247452821
464960
1
1
464960
574637.362
-109677.362
12029123735
2005
509796
2
4
1019592
602201.591
-92405.591
8538793248
2006
452450
3
9
1357350
629765.82
-177315.82
31440900022
2007
438573
4
16
1754292
657330.049
-218757.049
47854646487
2008
736771
5
25
3683855
684894.278
51876.722
2691194285
2009
1007284
6
36
6043704
712458.507
294825.493
86922071323
2010
905571
7
49
6338997
740022.736
165548.264
27406227713
Jumlah
8206097
280
7717984
2.59843E+11
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Metode least square Tahun
Y
Y'
1996
421460
354123.53
1997
449026
381687.759
1998
488149
409251.988
1999
490601
436816.217
2000
480128
464380.446
2001
507519
491944.675
2002
441819
519508.904
2003
411990
547073.133
2004
464960
574637.362
2005
509796
602201.591
2006
452450
629765.82
2007
438573
657330.049
2008
736771
684894.278
2009
1007284
712458.507
2010
905571
740022.736
Produksi (ton)
Trend Produksi Ubi kayu dengan Metode least square 1500000 1000000 500000
Y
0
Y'
19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 tahun
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 7. Trend Produksi Ubi Jalar dengan Metode Least Square Tahun
Produksi Ubi Jalar (Y)
X
X2
XY
Y'
(Y-Y')2
Y-Y'
1996
118348
-7
-828436
49
111476.567
6871.433333
47216596.05
1997
111156
-6
-666936
36
113235.41
-2079.409524
4323943.968
1998
106618
-5
-533090
25
114994.252
-8376.252381
70161603.95
1999
134642
-4
-538568
16
116753.095
17888.90476
320012913.6
2000
126961
-3
-380883
9
118511.938
8449.061905
71386647.07
2001
118183
-2
-236366
4
120270.781
-2087.780952
4358829.305
2002
118170
-1
-118170
1
122029.624
-3859.62381
14896695.95
2003
135661
0
0
0
123788.467
11872.53333
140957047.8
2004
117295
1
117295
1
125547.31
-8252.309524
68100612.48
2005
115728
2
231456
4
127306.152
-11578.15238
134053612.6
2006
102712
3
308136
9
129064.995
-26352.99524
694480358
2007
117641
4
470564
16
130823.838
-13182.8381
173787220.2
2008
114186
5
570930
25
132582.681
-18396.68095
338437870.1
2009
140138
6
840828
36
134341.524
5796.47619
33599136.23
2010
179388
7
1255716
49
136100.367
43287.63333
1873819200
Jumlah
1856827
492476
280
3,989,592,286.82
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Metode Least Square Tahun 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Y 118348 111156 106618 134642 126961 118183 118170 135661 117295 115728 102712 117641 114186 140138 179388
Y' 111476.5667 113235.4095 114994.2524 116753.0952 118511.9381 120270.781 122029.6238 123788.4667 125547.3095 127306.1524 129064.9952 130823.8381 132582.681 134341.5238 136100.3667
Trend Produksi Ubi Jalar dengan Metode Trend Least Square produksi (ton)
200000 150000 100000
Y
50000
Y'
0 19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 tahun
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 8. Trend Konsumsi Ubi Kayu dengan Metode Least Square Tahun
Total Konsumsi
X
X2
XY
Y'
Y-Y'
(Y-Y')2
Ubi Kayu (Y) 1996
87736.888
-7
-614158.216
49
92000.91358
-4264.025583
18181914.18
1997
88955.984
-6
-533735.904
36
99557.24912
-10601.26512
112386822.1
1998
91211.816
-5
-456059.08
25
107113.5847
-15901.76865
252866246.3
1999
92773.904
-4
-371095.616
16
114669.9202
-21896.01619
479435525
2000
89348.43
-3
-268045.29
9
122226.2557
-32877.82573
1080951424
2001
90966.972
-2
-181933.944
4
129782.5913
-38815.61926
1506652299
2002
187183.785
-1
-187183.785
1
137338.9268
49844.8582
2484509889
2003
187868.304
0
0
0
144895.2623
42973.04167
1846682310
2004
191549.088
1
191549.088
1
152451.5979
39097.49013
1528613735
2005
239137.553
2
478275.106
4
160007.9334
79129.6196
6261496697
2006
245283.784
3
735851.352
9
167564.2689
77719.51506
6040323021
2007
141178.081
4
564712.324
16
175120.6045
-33942.52348
1152094900
2008
112424.773
5
562123.865
25
182676.94
-70252.16701
4935366970
2009
99192.961
6
595157.766
36
190233.2755
-91040.31455
8288338873
2010
228616.612
7
1600316.284
49
197789.6111
30827.00092
950303985.5
Jumlah
2173428.935
2115773.95
280
36,938,204,611.29
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Metode Least Square Tahun Y 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
87736.888 88955.984 91211.816 92773.904 89348.43 90966.972 187183.785 187868.304 191549.088 239137.553 245283.784 141178.081 112424.773 99192.961 228616.612
Y' 92000.91358 99557.24912 107113.5847 114669.9202 122226.2557 129782.5913 137338.9268 144895.2623 152451.5979 160007.9334 167564.2689 175120.6045 182676.94 190233.2755 197789.6111
konsumsi 9ton0
Trend Total Konsumsi Ubi Kayu dengan Metode trend Least Square 300000 200000 100000
Y
0
Y'
19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 tahun
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 9. Trend Konsumsi Ubi Jalar dengan Metode Least Square Tahun
Total Konsumsi Ubi Jalar (Y)
X
X2
XY
Y'
Y-Y'
(Y-Y')2
1996
33127.459
-7
-231892.213
49
40450.61622
-7323.157221
53628631.69
1997
33587.762
-6
-201526.572
36
38846.59628
-5258.834283
27655338.02
1998
34439.513
-5
-172197.565
25
37242.57635
-2803.063346
7857164.12
1999
35029.322
-4
-140117.288
16
35638.55641
-609.2344079
371166.5638
2000
33735.94089
-3
-101207.823
9
34034.53647
-298.5955801
89159.32046
2001
34347.06564
-2
-68694.1313
4
32430.51653
1916.549108
3673160.482
2002
40280.055
-1
-40280.055
1
30826.49659
9453.558405
89369766.52
2003
40427.3566
0
0
0
29222.47666
11204.87994
125549334.5
2004
41219.424
1
41219.424
1
27618.45672
13600.96728
184986311
2005
23420.6882
2
46841.3764
4
26014.43678
-2593.748581
6727531.703
2006
24022.6386
3
72067.9158
9
24410.41684
-387.7782435
150371.9661
2007
20534.9936
4
82139.9744
16
22806.39691
-2271.403306
5159272.977
2008
17085.43527
5
85427.17635
25
21202.37697
-4116.941698
16949208.94
2009
10462.27494
6
62773.64964
36
19598.35703
-9136.08209
83467995.96
2010
16617.22111
7
116320.5478
49
17994.33709
-1377.11598
1896448.423
Jumlah
438337.1499
-449125.583
280
607,530,862.21
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Metode Least Square Tahun 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Y 33127.459 33587.762 34439.513 35029.322 33735.941 34347.065 40280.055 40427.357 41219.424 23420.688 24022.639 20534.994 17085.435 10462.275 16617.221
Y' 40450.616 38846.596 37242.576 35638.556 34034.536 32430.517 30826.487 29222.477 27618.457 26014.437 24410.417 22806.397 21202.377 19598.357 17994.337
konsumsi (ton)
Trend Total Konsumsu Ubi Jalar dengan Metode Least Square 60000 40000 20000
Y
0 19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
Y'
tahun
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 10. Peramalan Produksi dan Konsumsi Ubi Kayu Sumatera Utara (2015-2025) Tahun 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Notasi Tahun (X) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Produksi Ubi Kayu (Ton) (Y1) 421.460 449.026 488.149 490.601 480.128 507.519 441.819 411.990 464.960 509796 452.450 438.573 736.771 1.007.284 905.571
Konsumsi Ubi Kayu (Ton) (Y2) 87.736,888 88.955,984 91.211,816 92.773,904 89.348,430 90.966,972 187.183,785 187.868,304 191.549,088 239.137,553 245.283,784 141.178,081 112.424,773 99.192,961 228.616,612
Universitas Sumatera Utara
• Produksi Ubi Kayu Regression [DataSet0] Descriptive Statistics Mean Produksi Ubi Kayu Tahun
Std. Deviation
N
5.4707E5
1.83728E5
15
.0000
4.47214
15
b
ANOVA Model 1
Sum of Squares
df
Mean Square
Regression
2.127E11
1
2.127E11
Residual
2.598E11
13
1.999E10
Total
4.726E11
14
F
Sig.
10.643
a
.006
a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun b. Dependent Variable: Produksi Ubi Kayu
a
Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1
B (Constant)
547073.133
Std. Error 36503.801
Coefficients Beta
95% Co t
Sig.
14.987
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lower B .000
4682
Tahun
27564.229
8448.988
.671
3.262
a. Dependent Variable: Produksi Ubi Kayu
Charts
Universitas Sumatera Utara
.006
93
•
Konsumsi Ubi Kayu
Regression [DataSet0] Descriptive Statistics Mean Konsumsi Ubi Kayu Tahun
Std. Deviation
N
1.4490E5
61485.01702
15
.00000
4.472136
15
Universitas Sumatera Utara
b
Model Summary
Model
R
Std. Error of the
Square
Estimate
R Square a
1
Adjusted R
.550
.302
.248
Change S R Square Change
53304.78734
F Change
.302
df
5.627
a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun
b
ANOVA Model 1
Sum of Squares
df
Mean Square
Regression
1.599E10
1
1.599E10
Residual
3.694E10
13
2.841E9
Total
5.293E10
14
F
Sig.
5.627
a
.034
a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi Ubi Kayu
a
Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1
B (Constant) Tahun
Std. Error
144895.262
13763.237
7556.336
3185.570
Coefficients Beta
95% Co t
.550
Sig.
Lower B
10.528
.000
1151
2.372
.034
6
Universitas Sumatera Utara
a
Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1
B (Constant) Tahun
a.
Std. Error
144895.262
13763.237
7556.336
3185.570
Coefficients Beta
95% Co t
.550
Sig.
Lower B
10.528
.000
1151
2.372
.034
6
Dependent Variable: Konsumsi Ubi Kayu
Charts
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Angka Ramalan Produksi dan Konsumsi Ubi Kayu Tahun 2015-2025
Tahun
X
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Produksi (Ton) (Y1 =547073.13 + 27564.23 X) 877843.876 905408.104 932972.333 960536.562 988100.790 1015665.019 1043229.247 1070793.476 1098357.704 1125921.933 1153486.162
Konsumsi (Ton) (Y2 = 144895.26 - 7556.34 X) 235571.289 243127.624 250683.960 258240.295 265796.631 273352.966 280909.302 288465.637 296021.973 303578.309 311134.644
Dimana : X = Notasi Tahun (1,2,…dst)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 11. Peramalan Produksi dan Konsumsi Ubi Jalar Sumatera Utara (2015-2025) Tahun 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Notasi Tahun (X) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Produksi Ubi Jalar (Ton) (Y1) 118.348 111.156 106.618 134.642 126.961 118.183 118.170 135.661 117.295 115.728 102.712 117.641 114.186 140.138 179.388
Konsumsi Ubi Jalar (Ton) (Y2) 33.127,459 33.587,762 34.439,513 35.029,322 33.735,941 34.347,066 40.280,055 40.427,357 41.219,424 23.420,688 24.022,639 20.534,994 17.085,435 10.462,275 16.617,221
Universitas Sumatera Utara
•
Produksi Ubi Jalar
Regression [DataSet0]
Variables Entered/R
Va
Descriptive Statistics Mean Produksi Ubi Jalar Tahun
Std. Deviation
N
1.2379E5
18623.72133
15
.0000
4.47214
15
Model
Variables Entered
1
Tahun
Re
a
a. All requested variables entered.
b. Dependent Variable: Produksi Ub
b
Model Summary
Model
R
R Square a
1
.422 a.
Adjusted R
Std. Error of the
Square
Estimate
.178
.115
Change S R Square Change
17518.26476
F Change
.178
2.823
Predictors: (Constant), Tahun
b
ANOVA Model 1
Sum of Squares
df
Mean Square
Regression
8.662E8
1
8.662E8
Residual
3.990E9
13
3.069E8
Total
4.856E9
14
F 2.823
Sig. a
.117
a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun
Universitas Sumatera Utara
df
b. Dependent Variable: Produksi Ubi Jalar
a
Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1
B (Constant) Tahun
Std. Error
123788.333
4523.197
1758.893
1046.917
Coefficients Beta
95% Co t
.422
Sig.
Lower B
27.367
.000
1140
1.680
.117
-5
a. Dependent Variable: Produksi Ubi Jalar
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Charts
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
•
Konsumsi Ubi Jalar
Regression [DataSet0]
Variables Entered/R Descriptive Statistics Mean Konsumsi Ubi Jalar Tahun
Va
Std. Deviation
N
2.9222E4
9739.23307
15
.00000
4.472136
15
Model
Variables Entered
1
Tahun
Re
a
a. All requested variables entered.
b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi U
b
Model Summary
Model
R
R Square a
1
.737
Adjusted R
Std. Error of the
Square
Estimate
.543
.507
Change S R Square Change
6836.16437
F Change
.543
15.415
a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun
b
ANOVA Model 1
Sum of Squares
df
Mean Square
Regression
7.204E8
1
7.204E8
Residual
6.075E8
13
4.673E7
Total
1.328E9
14
F 15.415
Sig. a
.002
a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun
Universitas Sumatera Utara
df
b.
Dependent Variable: Konsumsi Ubi Jalar
a
Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1
B
Std. Error
(Constant)
29222.477
1765.090
Tahun
-1604.020
408.539
Coefficients Beta
95% Co t
-.737
Sig.
Lower B
16.556
.000
254
-3.926
.002
-24
a. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi Ubi Jalar
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Charts
Universitas Sumatera Utara