PT Berlian Laju Tanker, Tbk

DEBT RESEARCH

COMPANY UPDATE 9 APRIL 2008

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PT Berlian Laju Tanker, Tbk Two Sides of the Same Coin

Country INDONESIA Country INDONESIA Company Rating S&P

D

Country Rating SAnalyst &P Moody’s Gomos B. Silitonga

BBBa3

(62 21) 526 9888 ext. 2337 Company Rating [email protected] Pefindo idAAS&P

B

Analyst Neda Tanaga (62 21) 350 9888 ext. 3408 [email protected]

Please read important disclosure at the back of this report.

www.danareksa.com

Executive Summary Berdasarkan perhitungan kami atas laporan keuangan perusahaan per 31 Desember 2007, BLTA memang melanggar batasan yang ditetapkan oleh Obligasi BLTA 03/20007 mengenai rasio kewajiban bersih terhadap modal. Perusahaan memang telah memiliki rencana untuk mengatasi hal ini, hanya saja rencana tersebut baru setengah terlaksana sehingga keberhasilannya belum pasti. Berdasarkan keadaan ini, kami beranggapan bahwa baik obligasi Rupiah maupun wesel bayar USD perusahaan tidak berada pada valuasi yang tepat. Obligasi BLTA 03/2007 terlalu tinggi sedangkan wesel bayar USD terlalu rendah nilainya.

Executive Summary Based on our calculations from the financial results published by the Company dated December 31, 2007, BLTA breached its Bond 03/ 2007 covenant regarding the net debt to equity ratio. BLTA already has plans to rectify this matter, although it remains to be seen whether the plans will be effective in reducing the company’s leverage. With these facts in mind, we believe that both the BLTA 03/2007 Rupiah bond and the 2007 USD Notes are mispriced: the Rupiah bond is expensive while the USD notes are cheap.

Menilik sejarah perusahaan serta pengalaman manajemen, kami memperkirakan bahwa BLTA akan mampu menyelesaikan masalah yang ada saat ini.

In light of the Company’s long track record and the Management’s experience, we remain hopeful that the Company will still be able to resolve its problems.

Obligasi Rupiah: Terlalu Mahal Obligasi BLTA 03/2007 terakhir diperdagangkan pada harga 100,26 dengan yield to maturitysebesar 10,27% – hanya 0,09% lebih tinggi dari obligasi pemerintah yang akan jatuh tempo dalam kurun waktu 4 tahun. Kami berpandangan, bahwa harga ini terlalu tinggi mengingat keadaan pasar obligasi saat ini serta fakta bahwa BLTA telah melakukan pelanggaran teknis terhadap pembatasan obligasi tersebut.

The Rupiah Bond: Too Pricey The BLTA 03/2007 bond was last traded at 100.26 with a 10.27% yield to maturity – just a mere 0.09% higher than the 4-year risk free yield to maturity. Yet according to our calculations, the price of the bond is too high given the prevailing conditions in the bond market and the fact that BLTA has now breached the bond covenant.

Target harga kami untuk obligasi ini pada 31 Desember 2008 adalah 96,05 dan dengan menambahkan selisih 3% di atas risk free yield, maka obligasi ini seharusnya memberikan 11,74% yield to maturity. Sehingga jika kita membeli pada harga 100,26 dan memegang obligasi tersebut hingga akhir tahun 2008 maka hasil disetahunkannya hanyalah 4,6%, terlalu rendah untuk obligasi berperingkat idAA- rating seperti Obligasi BLTA 03/2007 sekalipun.

Our target price for the bond on December 31, 2008 is 96.05. Adding an extra 3% to the risk free yield, the bond should offer an 11.74% yield to maturity. Thus, buying the bond at 100.26 and holding it until the end of 2008 will only give an annualized return of 4.6%, too low even for a bond with an idAA- rating like BLTA 03/2007.

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PT Berlian Laju Tanker, Tbk Wesel Bayar USD: Investasi yang Menarik Sebaliknya, wesel bayar USD BLTA justru menawarkan kesempatan investasi yang menarik bagi investor yang bersedia memegang wesel bayar tersebut hingga jatuh tempo pada tahun 2014. Meskipun saat ini perusahaan baru dianggap melakukan pelanggaran teknis, wesel bayarnya sudah cukup lama diperdagangkan pada harga yang terhitung gagal bayar. Transaksi terakhir terjadi pada harga 64.75 dengan yield to maturity senilai 17,00%, untuk itu jika kita memegang wesel bayar ini hingga jatuh tempo maka per tahunnya kita bisa mendapatkan hasil hingga 19,59%.

The USD Notes: Very Attractive Nevertheless, the trading of the BLTA USD Notes offers a good investment opportunity for those who are willing to keep the notes until maturity in 2014. Although the Company is only in technical default, the notes have been “trading at default” for quite some time now. As they last traded at a price of 64.75 with a 17.00% yield to maturity, holding the bonds until maturity will provide an approximate return of 19.59% per annum.

Risiko Keuangan yang Meningkat Berdasarkan prospektus Obligasi BLTA 03/2007, perusahaan harus mempertahankan rasio kewajiban bersih terhadap modal tidak lebih dari 2,5 : 1. Sementara yang dimaksud dengan kewajiban keuangan bersih adalah semua kewajiban keuangan yang menimbulkan kewajiban pembayaran bunga seperti utang bank, sewa guna usaha, utang efek konversi, utang efek dan instrumen pinjaman lainnya – kecuali utang usaha, utang dividen, dan utang pajak – dikurangi kas, setara kas dan investasi yang tersedia untuk dijual.

Increasing Financial Risk According to the BLTA 03/2007 prospectus, BLTA has to maintain its net debt to equity ratio at a level no higher than 2.5X. The prospectus also states that net debt equals all interest bearing debt such as bank loans, obligations under capital leases, convertible bonds and other securities (excluding accounts payable, taxes payable, and dividends payable) minus cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities.

Sebagai perusahaan yang tercatat di dua bursa, BEI dan Bursa Singapura, BLTA harus menaati Peraturan Standar Akuntansi Keuangan (PSAK) dan International Financing Reporting Standards (IFRS). Untuk itu, kami menghitung kewajiban keuangan bersih terhadap modal menggunakan kedua standar tersebut dan hasilnya memang berbeda untuk masing-masing standar. Meskipun demikian, berdasarkan hasil perhitungan kedua standar tersebut menggunakan posisi keuangan 31 Desember 2007, B LTA tetap melanggar pembatasan yang telah ditetapkan dalam prospektus. Karena pelanggaran ini, S&P menurunkan peringkat kredit perusahaan, peringkat wesel bayar senilai USD 400 juta, dan peringkat efek konversi senilai USD 125 juta dari B+ menjadi B.

As a dual listed company, BLTA has to comply with both the Indonesian Accounting Standards (PSAK) and the International Financing Reporting Standards (IFRS). Hence, we calculate the net debt to equity ratio using both standards. So, the net debt to equity ratios are different, depending upon which standards are used. However, according to whichever standard is used, BLTA did breach the Rupiah bond covenant based on its financial position at December 31, 2007. Because of this technical default, S&P decided to downgrade BLTA’s company credit rating, its USD 400 million unsecured notes rating, and its USD 125 million convertible bond rating from B+ to B.

Exhibit 1. Net Debt to Equity Ratio

Debt Cash + Cash Equivalent + Marketable Securities Equity Net Debt to Equity Ratio

PSAK (Rp bn)

PSAK (USD mn)

IFRS (USD mn)

16,442.10

1,745.58

1,741.44

2,661.39 3,315.58 4.16

282.61 368.25 3.97

282.61 575.23 2.54

Source: Company and Danareksa

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PT Berlian Laju Tanker, Tbk Wali Amanat telah memberikan waktu 120 hari kepada BLTA untuk menurunkan rasio kewajiban bersih terhadap modalnya dan jika sampai batas waktu tersebut perusahaan belum dapat memenuhi pembatasan obligasi maka Wali Amanat akan mengadakan Rapat Umum Pemegang Obligasi (RUPO) untuk membahas kelanjutan masalah ini. Dalam RUPO, investor mungkin akan memberikan pengecualian, mengubah rasio kewajiban bersih terhadap modal ke level yang lebih tinggi, atau meminta perusahaan memberikan premi tambahan di luar kupon.

The Custodian has given the company 120 days to bring down its net debt to equity ratio, else face bondholders in a meeting to discuss what to do next in regard to the bonds. The bondholders might bestow the company with a waiver, heighten the net debt to equity ratio ceiling, or demand the company to add premium over the coupon.

Untuk menurunkan rasio ke level 2,5X sesuai dengan standar PSAK, BLTA membutuhkan dana kurang lebih Rp 5,49 triliun atau USD 600 juta. Sedangkan untuk menurunkan rasio berdasarkan IFRS, dana yang dibutuhkan kurang lebih hanya Rp 196 milliar atau USD 20 juta.

To meet the PSAK standards, the company would need approximately Rp 5.49 trillion or about USD 600 million to reduce its debts such that the net debt to equity ratio is reduced to 2.5X. But to meet the less stringent IFRS standards, BLTA would only need a mere USD 20 million or around Rp 196 billion.

Guna mengurangi rasio ini, perusahaan telah merencanakan untuk menjual asetnya. BLTA berencana menjual 4-5 tanker minyaknya. Hingga saat ini mereka telah menjual 3 kapal senilai USD 70 juta. Sedangkan 1-2 tanker sisanya diharapkan bisa terjual seharga USD 66 juta. Tambahan pula, perusahaan akan menjual dan menyewa kembali 4 tanker dengan 20.000 DWT ton yang baru selesai dibuat dengan harapan akan mengurangi utang hingga USD 125 juta. Jumlah ini sudah lebih dari cukup untuk memperbaiki rasio berdasarkan IFRS, tapi belum memadai untuk PSAK.

To resolve the issue, the company plans to sell some of its fixed assets. BLTA plans to sell 4-5 older oil tankers. Up to this point, they have already sold 3 vessels for USD 70 million. They predict that the 1-2 vessel(s) remaining will be sold for roughly USD 66 million. In addition, BLTA also intends to sell and lease back 4 of its newly-built 20,000 DWT ton vessels, hoping to reduce its debt again by another USD 125 million. The proceeds would obviously be more than enough to allow the company to meet the IFRS standards. However, such an amount would not be enough to allow the company to meet the PSAK standards.

Pada saat yang sama, kecil kemungkinan investor efek konversi akan mengkonversi obligasinya dengan saham BLTA yang tercatat di Bursa Singapura karena harga konversi adalah SGD 0,4965 sedangkan harga saham per 8 April 2008 adalah USD 0,300. Dengan demikian, BLTA harus menemukan cara lain untuk mengurangi utang guna menyesuaikan rasio berdasarkan PSAK.

At the same time, it is unlikely that the convertible bondholders can convert their bonds to BLTA shares listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange. This is because the share price as of April 8, 2008 was SGD 0.300, or still below the conversion price of SGD 0.4965. As such, the company shall have to figure out another way to reduce its debts so as to comply with the PSAK standards.

Untuk itu, kami mencoba melakukan analisis berdasarkan 2 skenario. Skenario 1 berasumsi bahwa BLTA tidak dapat menjual sisa kapal seperti yang direncanakan, tidak mengeluarkan dana untuk belanja modal tambahan, serta tidak menambah pinjaman lagi. Sedangkan Skenario 2 mengasumsikan bahwa BLTA berhasil menjual sisa kapalnya seperti rencana, tetap melakukan belanja modal serta menambah utang bila diperlukan. Dalam kedua skenario, BLTA tetap harus memenuhi kewajiban keuangannya secara tepat waktu kepada para kreditur.

Against this backdrop, we have chosen to analyze 2 different scenarios. The first scenario assumes that BLTA is not able to sell the remaining vessels as planned, does not incur any capital expenditure, and does not take up any other loans. Meanwhile, the second scenario, in contrast, implies that the company is able to realize plans to sell its vessels, that it implements its capital expenditure plans, and that it borrows more money when needed. In both scenarios, it is assumed that the Company has to fulfill its financial obligations to its creditors in a timely manner.

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PT Berlian Laju Tanker, Tbk Exhibit 2. Scenario 1 vs Scenario 2: Financial Ratios Comparison

Capitalization Total debt to total assets (%) Debt to equity (X) Net debt to equity (X) Debt to EBITDA (X) Coverage EBIT interest coverage (X) EBITDA interest coverage (X) FFO to total debt (%) FFO to net debt (%) Cost of Fund (%)

Scenario

2007

2008F

2009F

2010F

2011F

2012F

2013F

2014F

1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2

79.55 79.55 4.96 4.96 4.16 4.16 11.63 11.63

71.04 67.07 3.24 2.55 3.01 2.32 7.06 6.52

65.75 62.30 2.39 1.98 2.12 1.61 6.34 5.52

59.74 55.09 1.80 1.44 1.28 1.01 5.68 4.49

54.03 48.46 1.38 1.08 0.85 0.85 5.03 3.74

42.78 37.05 0.86 0.66 0.41 0.54 3.55 2.53

37.22 31.34 0.67 0.51 0.16 0.36 3.34 2.32

17.16 16.76 0.23 0.22 Net Cash 0.17 1.26 1.11

1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2

1.44 1.44 2.27 2.27 18.27 18.27 21.79 21.79

2.06 2.24 3.26 3.48 29.79 39.95 32.07 43.85

3.36 4.34 4.63 5.75 39.04 41.58 44.17 51.24

4.03 5.70 5.43 7.40 48.16 53.88 67.43 76.58

4.94 7.09 6.50 9.31 57.74 66.08 94.51 84.03

6.28 9.09 8.26 11.93 85.45 101.60 180.84 125.27

6.94 10.20 8.90 13.26 90.84 110.65 378.87 156.54

10.28 15.02 12.92 19.55 251.45 247.38 Net Cash 314.22

1 2

4.08 4.08

5.12 5.10

3.98 3.66

3.83 3.54

3.67 3.44

3.28 3.10

2.49 2.37

5.09 3.80

Source: Company and Danareksa

Berdasarkan perhitungan kami, dalam skenario terburuk (Skenario 1) sekalipun, BLTA seharusnya mampu menghasilkan pendapat untuk memenuhi kewajiban keuangannya kepada para kreditur secara tepat waktu, walaupun dana yang dihasilkan belum cukup untuk menurunkan rasio ke tingkat yang diizinkan oleh pembatasan obligasi. Di tahun-tahun mendatang diharapkan dana dari operasi masih memadai untuk memenuhi kewajiban keuangan yang jatuh tempo. Oleh sebab itu, BLTA masih merupakan perusahaan obligasinya yang cukup baik untuk dijadikan instrumen investasi.

Based on our calculations, even under the worst case scenario (Scenario 1), BLTA will still be able to generate enough money to fulfill its financial obligations to its creditors, though not necessarily enough to bring down its net debt to equity ratio to the level permitted by the bond covenant. In the coming years, funds from operations will also be sufficient to repay the Company’s maturing debts. Therefore, we believe that investors should still consider investing in the Company’s debt instruments.

Akuisisi Chembulk Dengan akuisisi Chembluk, BLTA mengharapkan penambahan penghasilan untuk membantu perusahaan mengurangi beban utang. Karena akuisisi terjadi pada bulan Desember 2007, belum ada konsolidasi laporan keuangan Chembulk dalam laporan keuangan BLTA dari sisi pendapatan. Namun, BLTA telah menerbitkan laporan keuangan pro forma dari kedua perusahaan.

On the Chembulk Acquisition With the acquisition of Chembulk Tankers, BLTA will hopefully generate more revenues to help the company reduce its debt level. As the acquisition took place in December 2007, there has been no consolidation of Chembulk’s FY2007 results into BLTA’s accounts. However, the Company has published the pro forma results of both companies.

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PT Berlian Laju Tanker, Tbk Exhibit 3. Performa Results of BLTA and Chembulk Tankers

Operating Revenues Direct Selling Expenses Gross Profit Operating Expenses Operating Income EBITDA Other Income (Charges) Income Before Tax Tax Expense Net Income

2007

2007PF

2008F

3,641.77 2,504.68 1,137.09 239.02 898.07 1,413.63 (129.99) 768.08 (9.10) 758.98

5,263.29 3,430.56 1,832.73 333.96 1,498.77

6,038.38 4,416.42 1,621.97 380.93 1,241.04 1,927.07 575.79 1,816.83 (15.48) 1,801.34

(657.51) 841.26 (9.10) 832.16

Source: Company and Danareksa

Sementara untuk laporan keuangan 2007 BLTA, marjin kotor dan marjin usaha sama-sama mengalami penurunan karena melonjaknya harga minyak dunia, meningkatnya kompensasi serta biaya pelatihan awak kapal, serta naiknya biaya perbaikan dan perawatan di galangan kapal. Saat ini, galangan kapal di seluruh dunia tengah sibuk melaksanakan proyek konversi dari tanker ke kapal pengangkut muatan kering karena naiknya harga sewa kapal pengangkut muatan kering.

As for the BLTA FY2007 results, both the gross and operating margins declined due to soaring oil prices; increasing expenses for the crew’s salaries and training; and rising repairs and maintenance expenses at the shipyards. Note that shipyards around the world are undertaking projects to convert tankers to dry bulk vessels because of the significant increases in the dry bulk rate.

Dengan akuisis Chembulk, BLTA semakin memantapkan posisinya sebagai salah satu operator tanker kimia terbesar di dunia. Saat ini perusahaan mengoperasikan 80 tanker baik untuk kimia, gas, maupun minyak dengan total 2,18 juta DWT ton dan umur rata-rata kapal 9,1 tahun.

With the acquisition of Chembulk, BLTA has cemented its position as one of the largest chemical tanker companies in the world. It now has 80 tankers with 2.18 million DWT ton in total (chemical, oil, and gas tankers) with the age of the average tanker being 9.1 years.

Exhibit 4. BLTA Position among the Largest Chemical Transportation Companies Operator Odfjell ASA Stolt-Nielsen SA Eitzen Chemical ASA Iino Kaiun Kaisha PT Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk Jo Tankers A/S Tokyo Marine Co Ltd MISC Utkilens Anders Dorval Kaiun KK Marnavi SPA Koyo Kaiun Co Ltd John T Essberger

Country

No of Vessels

ton DWT

Data as of

Norway Norway Norway Japan Indonesia Norway Japan Malaysia Norway Japan Italy Japan Germany

52 52 81 13 54 21 26 14 26 18 18 15 25

1,995,740 1,675,846 1,443,125 1,122,859 816,196 556,294 485,177 403,818 271,970 267,021 180,880 142,397 102,957

Apr 2, 2008 Feb 28, 2008 Apr 3, 2008 Apr 3, 2008 Nov 30, 2007 April 3, 2008 Nov 30, 2007 Nov 30, 2007 Apr 3, 2008 Feb 19, 2008 Apr 3, 2008 Nov 30, 2007 Apr 3, 2008

Source: Company and Others Companies’ Websites

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PT Berlian Laju Tanker, Tbk Keuntungan lain dari akuisisi Chembulk adalah diversifikasi cakupan geografis perusahaan karena Chembulk memiliki pasar yang luas di belahan bumi Barat. Dengan demikian, akan mengurangi ketergantungan BLTA akan pasar Asia Timur.

Another benefit of acquiring Chembulk is increasing diversification in terms of geographical coverage since Chembulk has a strong presence in the Western hemisphere. This will reduce dependency on the East Asia market.

Exhibit 5. Revenues Contribution: Geographical Area Before Europe 2.20% Middle East & India 17.60%

North Asia 21.90%

After

Other 0.30%

Europe 4.90%

Indonesia 14.50%

Americas 15.50%

Middle East & India 16.70%

South East Asia 43.50%

North Asia 19.50%

Other 0.20% Indonesia 9.50%

South East Asia 33.70%

Source: Company

Meskipun begitu, akuisisi justru meningkatkan dependensi BLTA terhadap bisnis tanker kimia terutama bila ada perkembangan negatif dalam bisnis ini.

Nevertheless, the acquisition also increases BLTA’s dependency on the chemical tanker business, which, in return, heightens the risk should there be any negative developments in this business segment.

Exhibit 6. Revenues Contribution: Business Segment Before

After FPSO Gas Tanker 3% 8%

FPSO Gas Tanker 2% 5.2% Oil Tanker 23.6% Oil Tanker 30%

Chemical Tanker 53%

Chemical Tanker 69.2%

Source: Company

Sementara itu, penerapan asas cabotage tidak banyak berpengaruh terhadap bisnis perusahaan karena pasar dalam negeri hanya menyumbang 13-14% dari keseluruhan pendapatan dan saat ini BLTA hanya memiliki 11 kapal berbendera Indonesia.

Meanwhile, the implementation of cabotage law does not affect the company much since the domestic market only contributes around 13-14% to total revenues and the company only has 11 ships under the Indonesian flag.

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PT Berlian Laju Tanker, Tbk Risiko Potensial Kekhawatiran utama kami saat ini adalah apakah PTBA bisa menghasilkan cukup dana untuk mengurangi tingkat utangnya. Kegagalan perusahaan untuk menurunkan rasio kewajiban bersih terhadap modal bisa menyebabkan investor obligasi meminta perusahaan untuk memberikan premium di luar kupon obligasi sehingga meningkatkan cost of capital perusahaan.

Potential Risks Our main concern is whether BLTA can generate enough money to reduce its debts. Failure to reduce its net debt to equity ratio might result in the bondholders asking BLTA to give additional premium besides the coupon, thereby increasing the company’s cost of capital.

Selain itu, financial leverage perusahaan saat ini juga berada pada tingkat yang mengkhawatirkan. Pendapatan perusahaan saat ini hanya sekitar seperlima dari tingkat utangnya dan bila memperhitungkan Chembulk mencapai sepertiga dari keseluruhan utangnya. Oleh sebab itu, kegagalan untuk mematuhi pembatasan obligasi karena kurangnya dana dari operasi yang dihasilkan bisa membuat akuisisi Chembulk menjadi keputusan yang salah.

In addition, the company’s high leverage is worrisome since revenues are currently only about one-fifth of the total debt or one-third of total debt if we include Chembulk revenues. The acquisition of Chembulk, which has resulted in a high leverage position, might prove to be a mistake if the plan does not generate sufficient revenues to bring down the debt level required by the bond covenants.

Terakhir, perlu diperhatikan pula risiko yang timbul jika terjadi penurunan harga sewa kapal harian sehingga mengurangi pendapatan perusahaan yang selanjutnya mempengaruhi kemampuan perusahaan dalam membayar utang-utangnya.

Lastly, there is also a risk of declining revenues from declining day rates, hence, reducing the company’s ability to service its sizeable debts.

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Appendices Appendix 1. Balance Sheet Y/e Dec, Rp bn

2006A

2007A

2008F

2009F

2010F

2011F

2012F

Cash Receivables Inventories Others Tot’l current assets Property & vessel Other assets

886.1 507.0 58.9 520.5 1,972.5 5,903.9 329.5

1,980.4 713.4 118.9 811.9 3,624.6 15,810.7 1,233.3

435.5 327.4 91.2 947.8 1,802.0 15,693.4 1,228.9

1,754.6 964.5 191.5 918.6 3,829.2 15,686.4 1,224.6

2,930.4 548.7 138.3 1,006.7 4,624.1 16,266.5 1,220.2

1,756.3 1,074.3 224.0 985.4 4,040.0 18,281.5 1,215.9

939.8 712.3 178.3 1,056.6 2,887.1 19,051.0 1,211.5

Account payable Short term debt Others Tot’l curr. liabs Long term debt Other long-term

88.8 926.1 271.5 1,286.5 3,621.0 167.3

142.6 4,567.1 489.1 5,198.8 11,875.0 279.2

282.9 941.2 720.7 1,944.7 11,616.9 234.9

234.3 908.2 843.1 1,985.6 12,012.7 225.3

326.2 825.1 910.8 2,062.1 11,354.8 215.1

343.2 1,611.0 1,022.8 2,977.1 9,795.9 204.0

377.5 677.5 1,075.3 2,130.3 7,898.9 193.0

259.8 524.8

259.9 533.0

259.9 533.0

259.9 533.0

259.9 533.0

259.9 533.0

259.9 533.0

2,346.5 3,131.2 3,661.1 7,678.3 477.1

2,522.6 3,315.6 14,461.7 19,757.7 689.7

4,134.5 4,927.4 12,122.6 17,485.6 135.8

5,723.9 6,516.8 11,166.3 19,437.7 921.7

7,685.7 8,478.7 9,249.5 20,658.6 360.8

9,767.5 10,560.4 9,650.6 21,967.3 955.2

12,135.0 12,928.0 7,636.6 21,504.4 513.1

2006A

2007A

2007PF

2008F

2009F

2010F

2011F

2012F

3,073.8 (1,951.5) 1,122.3 (175.9) 946.4 445.8 (178.1) 1,214.0 (8.8) 0.0 1,205.3 662.1 82.3

3,641.8 (2,504.7) 1,137.1 (239.0) 898.1 383.9 (513.9) 768.1 (9.1) 0.0 759.0 566.5 149.8

5,263.3 (3,430.6) 1,832.7 (334.0) 1,498.8 (657.5) 0.0 841.3 (9.1) 0.0 832.2 682.4 149.8

6,038.4 (4,416.4) 1,622.0 (380.9) 1,241.0 1,084.7 (508.9) 1,816.8 (15.5) 0.0 1,801.3 529.0 223.9

7,268.1 (5,042.1) 2,226.0 (457.5) 1,768.5 41.8 (274.8) 1,535.4 (18.6) 0.0 1,516.8 1,328.3 188.5

8,313.9 (5,700.9) 2,613.0 (522.6) 2,090.4 43.8 (145.9) 1,988.3 (21.3) 0.0 1,967.0 1,722.5 244.5

9,150.6 (6,254.7) 2,895.9 (573.7) 2,322.2 45.1 (203.7) 2,163.6 (23.5) 0.0 2,140.1 1,874.1 266.0

9,979.3 (6,751.6) 3,227.6 (621.7) 2,605.9 56.7 (188.8) 2,473.8 (25.6) 0.0 2,448.2 2,143.9 304.3

Share capital Excess paid in Retained earnings & others Total equity Net debt Total capital employed Wkg cap (inv+dtrs-crtrs)

Appendix 2. Profit and Loss Account Y/e Dec, Rp bn Operating revenue Direct expenses Gross profit Operating expenses Operating profit Other income/ expenses Net interest Pre-tax income Taxes Minority interest Net Profit Core Profit Dividen

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Appendices Appendix 3. Cash Flow Y/e Dec, Rp bn

2006A

2007A

2008F

2009F

2010F

2011F

2012F

2,823.2 (1,885.4) (320.2) (8.9) (8.9)

3,519.7 (2,418.2) (388.9) (14.0) (9.1)

6,424.4 (3,805.7) (544.5) (24.3) (15.5)

6,631.0 (5,016.6) (407.1) (20.6) (18.6)

8,729.6 (5,399.5) (366.4) (20.6) (21.3)

8,624.9 (6,121.4) (327.4) (20.6) (23.5)

10,341.3 (6,466.6) (255.4) (10.3) (25.6)

2.0 601.9

0.0 689.5

(42.0) 1,992.4

156.9 1,324.9

(12.8) 2,908.9

152.9 2,285.0

6.2 3,589.6

Capex Others Net Investing Cash Flow

661.6 (1,125.7) (464.1)

(7,158.3) (2,513.7) (9,671.9)

477.0 35.6 512.5

(562.7) 132.3 (430.4)

(1,184.4) 220.6 (963.8)

(2,700.7) 123.7 (2,576.9)

(1,531.8) 66.6 (1,465.2)

Changes in bank loan Changes in bond payable Dividend paid Others Net Financing Cash Flow

43.7 0.0 (89.1) (246.3) (291.7)

5,036.9 5,754.4 (159.5) (555.1) 10,076.7

(3,835.2) (2.1) (223.9) 20.7 (4,040.6)

596.5 25.1 (188.5) (7.6) 425.5

(532.6) 16.6 (244.5) (8.2) (768.7)

(631.9) 26.2 (266.0) (10.0) (881.7)

(1,349.6) (1,276.5) (304.3) (9.1) (2,939.5)

Net changes Cash at beginning Cash at end

(153.9) 1,040.0 886.1

1,094.3 886.1 1,980.4

(1,535.7) 1,980.4 444.8

1,320.0 444.8 1,764.8

1,176.4 1,764.8 2,941.2

(1,173.6) 2,941.2 1,767.6

(815.2) 1,767.6 952.4

2006A

2007A

2008F

2009F

2010F

2011F

2012F

Capitalization Total debt to total assets (%) Debt to equity (X) Net debt to equity (X) Debt to EBITDA (X)

55.41 1.45 1.03 3.38

79.55 4.96 4.16 11.63

67.07 2.55 2.32 6.52

62.30 1.98 1.61 5.52

55.09 1.44 1.01 4.49

48.46 1.08 0.85 3.74

37.05 0.66 0.54 2.53

Coverage EBIT interest coverage (X) EBITDA interest coverage (X) FFO to total debt (%) FFO to net debt (%)

4.05 5.75 65.76 92.65

1.44 2.27 18.27 21.79

2.24 3.48 39.95 43.85

4.34 5.75 41.58 51.24

5.70 7.40 53.88 76.58

7.09 9.31 66.08 84.03

9.09 11.93 101.60 125.27

1.42 1.53

0.65 0.70

0.74 0.93

1.71 1.93

2.02 2.24

1.18 1.36

1.10 1.36

Efficiency Ratios Receivable turnover (days) Payable turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days) Net Working Capital turnover (days)

53.64 24.28 10.77 40.13

60.32 16.63 12.77 56.47

35.60 22.32 11.02 24.29

38.51 21.08 11.52 28.95

37.47 20.01 11.77 29.24

35.14 21.14 11.44 25.44

35.15 20.74 11.58 25.98

Profitability Gross margin (%) Operating margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net profit margin (%) Return on assets (%) Return on equity (%) Return on capital employed (%)

36.51 30.79 43.76 39.21 19.87 46.90 16.09

31.22 24.66 38.82 20.84 6.52 23.55 5.53

34.82 28.48 0.00 15.81 4.90 20.19 4.47

26.86 20.55 31.91 29.66 10.59 31.30 9.70

30.63 24.33 32.20 20.86 8.81 20.22 7.56

31.43 25.14 32.60 23.65 10.63 20.65 9.23

31.65 25.38 33.32 23.38 10.76 18.22 9.84

5.17%

4.08%

5.10%

3.66%

3.54%

3.44%

3.10%

Cash receipt from customer Cash paid to supplier Interest paid Profit sharing paid Income tax paid Others Net Operating Cash Flow

Appendix 4. Ratio Y/e Dec, Rp bn

Liquidity Quick ratio (X) Current ratio (X)

Cost of Fund

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RESEARCH TEAM Debt Research Fax No.

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Head of Debt Research Budi Susanto [email protected]

ext. 3403

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Annie Djatmiko [email protected]

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(62 21) 3501088 ext. 3212

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