PT Berlian Laju Tanker, Tbk

DEBT RESEARCH

COMPANY UPDATE 22 APRIL 2009

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PT Berlian Laju Tanker, Tbk Weathering the Storm

Country INDONESIA Country INDONESIA Company Rating S&P Country Rating S&P (LT Foreign) Moody’s (LT Foreign) Analyst Fitch (LT Foreign) Gomos B. Silitonga (62 21) 526Rating 9888 ext. 2337 Company [email protected] Pefindo S&P Fitch

D BBBa3 BB+

idA CCC+ CCC

Analyst Neda Tanaga (62 21) 350 9888 ext. 3408 [email protected]

Please read important disclosure at the back of this report.

www.danareksa.com

Ringkasan Eksekutif BLTA mencatatkan penghasilan yang lebih tinggi dari perkiraan sebesar yakni, sebesar Rp 7 triliun. Namun, tanpa memperhitungkan penjualan aset, perubahan nilai wajar wesel bayar USD dan obligasi konversi, serta kerugian derivatif, BLTA membukukan rugi inti Rp 21,92 miliar.

Executive Summary BLTA recorded higher-than-expectation revenue of Rp 7 trillion. Nonetheless, stripping out gains from assets sales, changes in fair value of notes and convertible bonds, and unrealized derivative losses, BLTA recorded core losses of Rp 21.92 billion.

Perusahaan telah membayar sisa bridging loan sejumlah USD 50 juta dan memperoleh beberapa utang baru. Selain itu, perusahaan juga akan menerbitkan Obligasi IV/2009 dan Sukuk Ijarah II/2009 dengan total Rp 500 milyar. Obligasi konvensional akan terdiri dari tiga seri dengan tenor satu, tiga, dan lima tahun sedangkan sukuk memeliki dua seri dengan tenor tiga dan lima tahun. Kupon yang ditawarkan ada pada kisaran 13,5-16,5%.

The company has repaid the remaining USD 50 million bridging loans and secured some other loans. It is also offering some Rp 500 billion of Bond IV/2009 and Sukuk Ijarah II/ 2009. The conventional bonds are in three series with 1, 3, and 5-year tenors whilst the sukuk has maturities of 3 years and 5 years. The coupon offered to investors is in the range of 13.5-16.5%.

BLTA juga masih membutuhkan likuiditas karena pemegang obligasi konversi kemungkinan besar akan melaksankan opsi put mereka pada bulan Mei 2010 di harga 116,82. Pada saat yang sama, perusahaan juga masih harus membiayai belanja modal mereka. Sehingga pada 2010 kami memperkirakan perusahaan akan menambah utang baru sejumlah USD 175 juta.

The company is still in need of liquidity as the holders of its convertible bonds are likely to exercise their put options in May 2010 at 116.82. And, at the same time, BLTA also needs to raise cash to finance its capex. Thus, in 2010, we expect the company to take on another USD 175 million of loans.

Saat ini industri perkapalan sedang mengarungi masa sulit karena jatuhnya tarif tambang akibat melemahnya pertumbuhan ekonomi global. Namun, BLTA beruntung karena tarif tambang tanker minyak tidak jatuh separah tarif tambang dry-bulk carriers. Perusahaan juga akan berusaha mengambil keuntungan dari mandatory scrapping tanker minyak lambung tunggal sebelum tahun 2011 dan penerapan asas cabotage di Indonesia dengan mendapatkan kontrak dari Pertamina. Akan tetapi, tetap saja rating BLTA sudah diturunkan dari idA+ menjadi idA.

The shipping industry is going through tough times at the moment with plummeting freight rates as a result of weak global economic growth. But fortunately for BLTA, chemical tanker rates have not fallen as much as drybulk rates. The company will try to benefit from the mandatory scrapping of single hull oil tankers before 2011 and the implementation of cabotage in Indonesia by pursuing Pertamina contracts. But nonetheless, BLTA’s credit rating has still been downgraded by Pefindo from idA+ to idA.

Kami masih menyarankan HOLD untuk BLTA. Meskipun wesel bayar dan BLTA III/2007 memiliki valuasi yang menarik, kami memiliki kekhawatiran terhadap lingkungan usaha yang sulit serta ketidakpastian arus kas perusahaan di masa depan.

We still advise investors to HOLD BLTA’s debt. Although its USD notes and Bond III/2007 have attractive valuations, we have concerns on the tough business environment and the uncertainties regarding the company’s cashflow going forward.

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PT Berlian Laju Tanker, Tbk Kinerja FY2008 Pendapatan melebihi ekspektasi kami. Meskipun harga minyak dan biaya sandar dalam persentase terhadap penghasilan perusahaan meningkat, marjin kotor FY2008 sedikit membaik karena efisiensi pada unit biaya COGS lainnya. Marjin usaha juga meningkat dari 24,66% pada 2007 menjadi 27% pada 2008. Sama halnya marjin EBITDA dan marjin bersih juga meningkat.

The FY2008 Results The top line surpassed expectations. Even though the fuel price and port charges increased as a percentage of revenues, the FY2008 gross margin actually improved slightly due to cost efficiency gains on other COGS items. The operating margin also improved. It rose from 24.66% in 2007 to 27.00% in 2008. The EBITDA and net margins also saw improvements.

Marjin inti menjadi negatif (-0,31% pada 2008) dibandingkan 10,17% pada 2007. Dengan tidak memperhitungkan keuntungan penjualan aset sebsar Rp 919,31 miliar, perubahan nilai wajar obligasi sebesar Rp 2,96 triliun dan kerugian derivatif Rp 1,78 triliun, perusahaan mencatatkan rugi inti Rp 21,92 miliar.

The core margin turned negative (-25.62% in 2008) compared to 10.17% in 2007. After taking out the gain from assets sales of Rp 919.31 billion, changes in fair value of USD notes and convertible bonds of Rp 2.96 trillion, and derivative losses of Rp 1.78 trillion, the company recorded a core loss of Rp 22 billion.

Exhibit 1. FY2008 Results (Rp bn)

Revenues Gross Profits Operating Profits EBITDA Net Profits Core Profits Gross Margin, % Operating Margin, % EBITDA Margin, % Net Margin, % Core Margin, %

12M08

12M07

% % of FY Change 2008F

7005.85 3642.17 2243.73 1137.24 1891.91 898.22 2883.55 1413.78 1557.96 759.26 -21.92 370.56 32.03 27.00 41.16 22.24 -0.31

31.22 24.66 38.82 20.85 10.17

92.35 97.30 110.63 103.96 105.19 -105.92

3Q08

% Change

112.33 1812.95 1668.06 93.46 546.23 553.65 91.18 470.98 461.87 126.13 719.61 702.62 35.50 727.79 -86.63 -8.65 -358.27 -18.04

8.69 -1.34 1.97 2.42 N/A N/A

38.49 33.27 36.65 69.79 4.06

4Q08

30.13 25.98 39.69 40.14 -19.76

33.19 27.69 42.12 -5.19 -1.08

Source: Company and Danareksa

Perkembangan Terakhir Utang-utang BLTA Sisa bridging loan sebesar USD 50 juta akhirnya dibayar pada bulan Maret 2009. Pada tanggal 2 Januari 2009, credit line BLTA ditingkatkan dari USD 50 juta menjadi USD 75 juta dengan Fortis Bank (Nederland) NV sebagai kreditur baru. Setelah menarik credit line tambahan, keseluruhan pinjaman kini sudah dilunasi.

BLTA’s Debt: the Latest Developments The remaining USD 50 million of bridging loans were finally repaid in March 2009. On 2 January 2009, BLTA’s credit line was increased from USD 50 million to USD 75 million with Fortis Bank (Nederland) NV as its new creditor. After drawing down the remaining loans, the additional amount was then repaid in March 2009.

Tampaknya BLTA belum menemui kesulitan dalam mendapatkan pinjaman baru. Terbukti perusahaan berhasil mendapatkan credit line dari Bank UOB Indonesia (USD 8,76 juta term loans dan USD 1,5 juta utang modal kerja) dan dari Mount Gede LLC (USD 25 juta secured junior term-loan facility yang USD 20 juta di antaranya sudah digunakan).

It seems that BLTA has not had significant difficulties in securing new loans. Evidently, the company managed to secure new credit lines from Bank UOB Indonesia (USD 8.76 million term loans and USD 1.5 million of working capital loans) and from Mount Gede LLC (USD 25 million secured junior term-loan facility, USD 20 million of which has been drawn down).

Perusahaan juga telah menarik Rp 350 miliar utang jangka pendek dari Bank Mandiri (yang sudah dibayar penuh pada Maret 2009) serta utang Rp 400 miliar dari Bank Ekspor Indonesia.

The company also took on Rp 350 billion of short-term loans from Bank Mandiri (which were then repaid in full in March 2009) as well as Rp 400 billion of loans from Bank Ekspor Indonesia.

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PT Berlian Laju Tanker, Tbk Untuk mendapatkan dana bagi belanja modal dan modal kerja, BLTA akan menerbitkan maksimum Rp 300 miliar obligasi konvensional dan Rp 200 miliar sukuk ijarah. BLTA IV/2009 terdiri dari 3 tranches. Seri A dengan tenor satu tahun akan menawarkan kupon 13,5-14,5%; Seri B dengan tenor tiga tahun akan menawarkan kupon 14,5-15,75%; dan Seri C dengan tenor lima tahun akan menawarkan kupon 15,25-16,5%. Sementara untuk Sukuk Ijarah II/2009, akan diterbitkan dua seri: Seri A dengan tenor tiga tahun dan Seri B dengan tenor lima tahun. Baik obligasi maupun sukuk tersebut tidak dijamin, tapi BLTA harus memberikan jaminan sebesar 110% nilai obligasi serta 10% sinking fund jika peringkat obligasi jatuh di bawah idA-. Dalam pembatasan keuangan, disebutkan pula bhwa BLTA harus mempertahankan rasio utang terhadap ekuitas bersih di bawah 3,5X dan rasio kecukupan EBITDA terhadap beban bunga di atas 2X.

To raise funds for capex and working capital, BLTA will issue a maximum of Rp 300 billion of conventional bonds and Rp 200 billion of sukuk ijarah. Bond IV/2009 consists of 3 tranches. The A Series with 1 year maturity will offer a 13.5-14.5% coupon; the B series with 3 year maturity will offer a 14.5-15.75% coupon; and the C Series with 5 year maturity will offer a 15.25-16.5% coupon. As for the Sukuk Ijarah II/2009, two series will be issued: the A Series with 3 year maturity and the B Series with 5 year maturity. The bonds and sukuk will have no collateral, but BLTA has to pledge 110% in assets as collateral and provide a 10% sinking fund if its corporate rating falls below idA-. In its financial covenants it is stipulated that BLTA has to keep its net gearing below 3.5X and maintain EBITDA interest coverage equal to or above 2X.

Per 31 Desember 2008, rasio utang terhadap ekuitas bersih BLTA sebesar 2,19X dengan rasio kecukupan EBITDA terhadap beban bunga 2,54X. Dengan penerbitan obligasi serta sukuk baru serta digabung dengan cicilan utang lainnya, kami memperkirakan rasio utang terhadap ekuitas bersih akan turun menjadi 1,76X sementara rasio kecukupan EBITDA terhadap beban bunga akan naik menjadi 3,63X pada akhir 2009.

As of 31 December 2008, BLTA’s net gearing was 2.19X with EBITDA interest coverage of 2.54X. With the issuance of the new bonds and sukuk combined with the repayments of its other loans, we estimate that the company’s net debt to equity ratio will decline to 1.78X whilst its EBITDA interest coverage will increase to 3.63X at the end of 2009.

Yang juga menarik untuk ditengok adalah obligasi konversi terjamin tanpa kupon BLTA. Investor obligasi memiliki opsi put yang bisa dipakai pada 17 Mei 2010 di harga 116,82. Mengingat obligasi tersebut terakhir diperdagangkan pada harga 33,75 dengan yield to maturity 48,95%, investor akan menggunakan opsi tersebut. Alhasil, BLTA akan membutuhkan USD 146,025 juta. Tanpa mengambil utang baru, tampaknya perusahaan akan kesulitan untuk membayar obligasi ini sekaligus membiayai belanja modal dan modal kerja. Untuk itu, kami perkirakan BLTA perlu mengambil utang baru senilai USD 175 juta.

Of particular interest is BLTA’s guaranteed zero coupon convertible bond. The bondholders have a put option that can be exercised on 17 May 2010 at 116.82. Considering that the bond was last traded at 33.75 with a 48.95% yield to maturity, the investors will exercise the put option. Hence, BLTA shall need USD 146.025 million. Without additional loans, the company might not have enough money. Thus, to make this payment – as well as finance capex and maintain sufficient working capital liquidity - we calculate that BLTA will need to take on another USD 175 million of loans.

Business Outlook yang Suram untuk 2009 Pada FY2008, tanker kimia berkontribusi terbesar untuk total pendapatan (73,8%). Pada saat yang sama kontrak spot mencapai 47% dari total penghasilan, sedangkan CoA dan time charters menyumbang 53% (ini berarti lebih dari setengah penghasilan relatif aman untuk jangka panjang).

Gloomy Business Outlook For 2009 In FY2008, chemical tankers contributed the bulk (73.8%) of sales. At the same time, spot contracts accounted for 47% of the revenues while the CoA and time charters combined accounted for 53% of the total revenues (this means that more than half the revenues are relatively well ensured in the longer term).

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PT Berlian Laju Tanker, Tbk Exhibit 2. FY2008 Sales Breakdown

0.2%

5.2% 1.5%

15%

8.5%

19.3%

47%

Oil

Gas

FPSO

0.2% 32.6%

15.6%

38%

73.8%

Chemical

8.1%

16.5%

Spot

Others

CoA

18.5%

Southeast Asia America Indonesia Others

Time Charter

North Asia South Asia & Middle East Europe

Source: Company

Perusahaan menyatakan bahwa tarif tambang kimia cukup bisa bertahan dan tahun ini hanya turun 4-8% dibanding tahun lalu. Pada 2008, ekspor dan impor kimia organik, kimia anorganik, serta minyak AS masih meningkat dalam hitungan USD. Namun, perlu diingat bahwa harga komoditas sepanjang 1H08 meningkat drastis dan krisis keuangan baru benar-benar terasa di akhir tahun 2008. Sehingga pertumbuhan dalam nilai USD bukanlah sesuatu yang mengherankan. Namun, tahun ini harga komoditas jauh lebih rendah dan perekonomian negara maju masih sangat lemah sehingga sulit untuk mengharapkan adanya pertumbuhan.

The company claims that this year’s chemical rate is holding up relatively well and that it will only go down 4-8% compared to last year’s rate. In 2008, US exports and imports of inorganic chemicals and fuel - as well as US imports of organic chemicals – still grew in USD terms. However, it should be noted that commodity prices had surged in 1H08 and the financial crisis came toward the end of the year. As such, the growth in terms of USD value is not surprising. However, this year, with commodity prices now much lower and the economies of developed countries still very weak, it is difficult to expect growth.

Exhibit 3. US Chemical and Export and Import

In thousand USD Organic Chemicals Growth, % Inorganic Chemicals, etc. Growth, % Mineral Fuel, Oil, etc. Growth, %

2004 Export

Import

2005 Export

Import

2006 Export

Import

2007 Export

Import

2008 Export

Import

30,377,562 38,379,365 30,833,936 40,773,776 33,817,154 43,527,400 37,936,667 45,251,735 37,750,913 52,418,823 1.50 6.24 9.68 6.75 12.18 3.96 -0.49 15.84 6,846,311 8,694,306 8,633,559 10,688,634 10,044,461 12,048,107 11,649,271 14,245,775 13,709,450 17,799,923 26.11 22.94 16.34 12.72 15.98 18.24 17.69 24.95 19,053,068 206,715,091 26,688,458 289,759,099 34,896,739 332,592,390 42,247,963 365,072,998 76,711,358 487,997,557 40.07 40.17 30.76 14.78 21.07 9.77 81.57 33.67

Source: International Trade Administration, US Departement of Commerce

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PT Berlian Laju Tanker, Tbk Tarif tambang tanker minyak juga diduga akan menurun (seperti terlihat pada indeks Baltic Clean dan Dirty Tanker). Rata-rata yearto-date Baltic Clean Tanker Index tahun ini lebih rendah 55% dari rata-rata FY2008. Sementara, rata-rata year-to-date Baltic Dirty Tanker Index lebih rendah 58% dari rata-rata FY2008. Namun, perlu diingat bahwa International Maritime Organization telah mengeluarkan peraturan baru untuk mengurangi tumpahan minyak dengan mewajibkan tanker berlambung ganda sebagai sarana transportasi minyak. Ini menyebabkan adanya mandatory scrapping terhadap tanker minyak berlambung tunggal sebelum 2011. Akibatnya, supply tanker minyak akan menurun (apalagi banyak galangan kapal masih fully-booked hingga 2011 mayoritas untuk membangun dry-bulk carriers). Akan tetapi, BLTA bisa mendapat keuntungan dari situasi ini karena mereka memiliki lima tanker berlambung ganda dan mencarter sebuah lagi. Selain itu, perusahaan juga memiliki dua double side tankers dan dua double bottom tankers. Sementara untuk tanker berlambung tunggal, BLTA memiliki empat kapal. Keempat kapal tersebut kemungkin besar akan di-scrap atau dijual sebelum akhir 2010.

The oil tanker rate is also expected to decline (as shown by the Baltic Clean and Dirty Tanker Indices). The average year-to-date Baltic Clean Tanker Index is 55% lower than the average for FY2008. Meanwhile, the average year-to-date Baltic Dirty Tanker Index was 58% lower than the average for FY2008. However, it should be remembered that the International Maritime Organization has issued a new ruling to reduce oil spillages by only allowing double hull tankers to transport oil. This calls for the mandatory scrapping of single hull oil tankers before 2011. As a result, the supply of oil tankers will decline (note that many shipyards are fully-booked until 2011 for the building of (mostly) dry-bulk carriers). However, BLTA stands to benefit from this situation as it owns five double hull tankers and charters one other. In addition, the company also has two double side tankers and two double bottom tankers. As for single hull tankers, it has four. They will most likely have to be scrapped or sold before the end of 2010.

Exhibit 4. Oil Tanker Rate 160 Baltic Clean Tanker Index Baltic Dirty Tanker Index WTI Crude Oil Price (RHS)

2200

140 120

1700

100

1200

80

USD/barrel

2700

60 700

40 26-Mar-09

1-Mar-09

4-Feb-09

10-Jan-09

16-Dec-08

21-Nov-08

2-Oct-08

27-Oct-08

7-Sep-08

19-Jul-08

13-Aug-08

24-Jun-08

30-May-08

5-May-08

10-Apr-08

16-Mar-08

26-Jan-08

20-Feb-08

20 1-Jan-08

200

Source: Bloomberg

Pada saat yang sama, Indonesia tengah menerapkan asas cabotage. Sehingga pengapalan komoditas non migas tertentu hanya bisa dilakukan oleh kapal nasional terhitung sejak 1 Januari 2009 sementara pengapalan komoditas migas hanya bisa dilakukan oleh kapal nasional terhitung sejak 1 Januari 2010. Cabotage juga berlaku untuk FPSO dan kapal offshore services.

At the same time, Indonesia is implementing cabotage. As a result, the shipment of certain non-oil and gas materials can only be undertaken by national vessels starting on 1 January 2009 whilst the shipment of oil and gas can only be undertaken by national vessels starting on 1 January 2010. Cabotage applies to FPSO and offshore services vessels as well.

Implementasi cabotage akan menguntungkan perusahaan. Pertamina mengoperasikan 155 tanker minyak dan gas – 36 di antaranya dimiliki oleh Pertamina sedangkan lainnya disewa. Dari 119 tanker sewaan, 56 tanker dimiliki asing.1 Akibatnya terbuka kemungkinan bagi perusahaan untuk mendapatkan kontrak baru dari Pertamina.

The implementation of cabotage shall undoubtedly benefit the company. Pertamina itself operates 155 oil and gas tankers – 36 of which are owned by Pertamina whilst the others are chartered. Of the 119 chartered tankers, 56 tankers are foreign.1 As such, there exists the opportunity for BLTA to get new contracts from Pertamina.

1)

www.pertaminatongkang.co.id 5

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PT Berlian Laju Tanker, Tbk Kami telah melakukan analisis skenario dengan tingkat pertumbuhan tanker tambang yang berbeda untuk setiap jenis tanker. Jika tarif tambang kimia menurun 15%, tarif tambang tanker minyak dan FPSO menurun 25%, dan tarif tambang tanker gas turun 10%, penghasilan FY2009E BLTA akan menurun 8,70% y-o-y. Namun rasio utang terhadap ekuitas bersih dan rasio kecukupan EBITDA terhadap beban bunga masih akan berada di batas yang diizinkan pembatasan keuangan obligasi. Menilik keadaan sekarang, kami berpandangan bahwa Skenario 1 yang akan berlaku.

We have conducted a scenario analysis with different growth rates for each type of tanker. If the chemical tanker rate contracts by 15% while the oil tanker and FPSO rates contract by 25% and the gas tanker rate contracts by 10%, then BLTA’s FY2009E revenues will drop 8.70% y-o-y. However, the NDER and EBITDA interest coverage ratios will still be within the acceptable range permitted by the bonds covenant. Considering the current situation, we think that Scenario 1 is the most likely to occur.

Exhibit 5. Scenario Analysis FY2009F

Revenue (Rp bn)

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

6396.45 5323.12 4962.04

% Core Profit Change (Rp bn)

% Change

1178.52 485.34 252.14

-58.82 -78.61

-16.78 -22.43

NDER (X)

EBITDA Interest Cvrg (X)

1.78 2.01 2.10

3.63 2.87 2.62

Source: Danareksa Estimates

Exhibit 5. Scenario Assumption Rate Growth Oil Tanker FPSO Chemical Tanker Gas Tanker

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

-25.0% -25.0% -15.0% -10.0%

-30.0% -30.0% -17.5% -12.5%

-35.0% -35.0% -20.0% -15.0%

Source: Danareksa Estimates

Valuasi Obligasi Walaupun wesel bayar USD dan BLTA III/2007 memiliki valuasi yang menarik, kami memiliki kekhawatiran akan kondisi bisnis yang sulit dan ketidakpastian arus kas perusahaan di masa depan. Akibatnya, kami mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD.

Bonds Valuation Although its USD notes and Bond III/2007 have attractive valuations, we have concerns on the tough business environment and the uncertainties regarding the company’s cashflow going forward. As such, we maintain our HOLD recommendation.

Wesel bayar USD BLTA terakhir diperdagangkan pada 14 April 2009 di harga 33,5 dengan yield to maturity 37,913%. Dengan menambahkan spread 10% di atas target yield akhir tahun Indon14, kami memperhitungkan bahwa target nilai wajar wesel bayar tersebut pada akhir 2009 adalah 69,68 dengan holding period return 113,46%.

BLTA’s USD notes were last traded on 14 April 2009 at a price of 33.5 with a 37.913% yield to maturity. Adding a 10% spread on top of the Indon-14 target yield for the end of the year gives a target price of 69.68 and a holding period return of 113.46%.

BLTA III/2007 terakhir diperdagangkan seharga 82.65 dengan yield to maturity 17,53%. Dengan spread 5% di atas benchmark FR0018, kami memperkirakan bahwa nilai wajar BLTA III/2007 di akhr tahun 2009 adalah 90,23. Obligasi ini menawarkan holding period return 20,74%.

BLTA III/2007 was last traded at a price of 82.65 with a 17.53% yield to maturity. With a 5% spread over the benchmark FR0018, we believe that the fair value of BLTA III/2007 at the end of the year is 90.23. The bonds offer a holding period return of 20.74%.

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Appendices Appendix 1. Balance Sheet Y/e Dec, Rp bn

2006A

2007A

2008F

2009F

2010F

2011F

2012F

2013F

2014F

2015F

Cash Receivables Inventories Others Tot’l current assets Property & vessel Other assets

886.1 507.0 58.9 520.5 1,972.5 5,903.9 329.5

1,980.4 713.4 118.9 811.9 3,624.6 15,810.7 1,233.3

714.4 1,058.6 139.6 1,628.5 3,541.2 20,657.2 777.9

554.8 1,102.5 181.8 1,632.8 3,471.8 20,008.7 1,054.1

675.4 1,165.1 150.3 1,640.2 3,631.1 19,970.3 1,011.2

801.2 1,362.6 160.0 1,663.1 3,986.8 21,199.9 968.4

1,622.0 1,473.5 187.2 1,675.9 4,958.7 19,810.5 925.5

3,179.5 1,583.9 202.1 1,689.1 6,654.6 19,252.6 882.6

2,632.5 1,690.3 218.2 1,711.4 6,252.5 18,598.1 839.7

4,025.7 1,801.4 260.4 1,725.0 7,812.5 17,836.5 796.9

Account payable 88.8 Short term debt 926.1 Others 271.5 Tot’l curr. liabs 1,286.5 Long term debt 3,621.0 Other long-term liabilities 167.3

142.6 4,567.1 489.1 5,198.8 11,875.0 279.2

189.9 3,985.3 783.6 4,958.9 12,337.4 1,782.6

339.1 1,956.1 826.5 3,121.7 12,758.1 1,697.7

280.4 2,447.2 822.4 3,550.0 11,534.6 1,685.3

298.4 3,240.1 888.0 4,426.5 11,896.0 1,669.2

349.2 1,810.9 941.5 3,101.6 10,824.9 1,658.2

377.0 3,288.9 987.5 4,653.4 8,129.3 1,646.6

407.1 1,722.9 1,083.7 3,213.6 6,768.4 1,634.2

485.6 788.2 1,152.0 2,425.8 6,391.6 1,621.9

Capital Stock 259.8 Additional Paid-in Capital 524.8 Retained Earnings 2,520.9 Others (174.5) Total Equity 3,131.2

259.8 533.0 3,130.1 (607.5) 3,315.6

259.9 570.7 4,479.2 560.8 5,897.5

286.8 570.7 5,474.5 625.0 6,956.9

286.8 570.7 6,573.7 411.5 7,842.7

286.8 570.7 7,939.3 (633.6) 8,163.2

286.8 570.7 9,586.2 (333.5) 10,110.2

286.8 570.7 11,610.4 (106.7) 12,361.2

286.8 570.7 13,379.8 (163.1) 14,074.1

286.8 570.7 15,340.6 (191.4) 16,006.6

Appendix 2. Profit and Loss Account Y/e Dec, Rp bn

2006A

2007A

2008F

2009F

2010F

2011F

2012F

2013F

2014F

2015F

Operating revenue 3,074.1 Direct expenses (1,951.5) Gross profit 1,122.6 Operating expenses (175.9) Operating profit 946.7 Other income/ expenses 445.8 Net interest (178.1) Pre-tax income 1,214.4 Taxes (8.8) Minority interest 0.0 Net Profit 1,205.6 Core Profit 754.2 Dividen 82.3

3,642.2 (2,504.9) 1,137.2 (239.0) 898.2 384.0 (513.9) 768.4 (9.1) 0.0 759.3 370.6 149.8

7,005.9 (4,762.1) 2,243.7 (351.8) 1,891.9 2,431.0 (2,755.1) 1,567.8 (9.8) 0.0 1,558.0 (21.9) 307.4

6,396.4 (3,937.6) 2,458.8 (397.4) 2,061.4 (13.3) (854.7) 1,193.5 (7.5) 0.0 1,186.0 1,178.5 190.7

6,760.0 (4,190.7) 2,569.3 (402.9) 2,166.3 (28.2) (820.0) 1,318.1 (8.3) 0.0 1,309.8 1,301.6 210.6

7,905.7 (4,904.3) 3,001.5 (456.5) 2,545.0 (25.7) (881.8) 1,637.5 (10.3) 0.0 1,627.2 1,617.0 261.6

8,549.5 (5,294.7) 3,254.7 (499.7) 2,755.1 (4.8) (775.4) 1,974.9 (12.4) 0.0 1,962.5 1,950.1 315.5

9,189.9 (5,716.7) 3,473.1 (536.1) 2,937.0 30.3 (540.0) 2,427.3 (15.2) 0.0 2,412.0 2,396.9 387.8

9,807.1 (6,819.7) 2,987.4 (552.2) 2,435.2 31.5 (345.0) 2,121.7 (13.3) 0.0 2,108.4 2,095.1 339.0

10,451.9 (7,265.3) 3,186.6 (588.6) 2,598.0 32.6 (279.4) 2,351.2 (14.8) 0.0 2,336.4 2,321.8 375.7

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Appendices Appendix 3. Cash Flow Y/e Dec, Rp bn

2006A

2007A

2008F

2009F

2010F

2011F

2012F

2013F

2014F

2015F

2,823.2 (1,885.4) (320.2) (8.9) (8.9)

3,519.7 (2,418.2) (388.9) (14.0) (9.1)

7,129.9 (3,019.5) (1,133.6) (30.6) (9.8)

6,352.6 (3,103.4) (891.4) (39.4) (7.5)

6,697.3 (3,463.4) (863.4) (52.9) (8.3)

7,708.3 (3,989.4) (933.3) (52.9) (10.3)

8,438.5 (4,410.2) (879.7) (33.4) (12.4)

9,079.5 (4,791.4) (744.6) 0.0 (15.2)

9,700.7 (5,783.4) (514.4) 0.0 (13.3)

10,340.8 (6,195.1) (279.4) 0.0 (14.8)

Others 2.0 Net Operating Cash Flow 601.9

0.0 689.5

7.9 2,944.2

(84.3) 2,226.6

41.4 2,350.8

62.9 2,785.3

83.9 3,186.7

76.0 3,604.3

78.9 3,468.5

99.5 3,950.9

Capex 661.6 Others (1,125.7) Net Investing Cash Flow (464.1)

(7,158.3) (2,513.7) (9,671.9)

(2,416.5) (301.6) (2,718.1)

(600.4) 36.7 (563.7)

(1,301.1) 43.5 (1,257.6)

(2,820.7) 51.5 (2,769.2)

(147.5) 104.4 (43.1)

(1,044.2) 204.6 (839.7)

(1,035.0) 169.4 (865.6)

(1,029.0) 0.0 (1,029.0)

Changes in bank loan 43.7 Changes in bond payable 0.0 Dividend paid (89.1) Others (246.3) Net Financing Cash Flow (291.7)

5,036.9 5,754.4 (159.5) (555.1) 10,076.7

(890.8) (400.0) (208.7) 7.4 (1,492.1)

(3,158.0) 1,176.5 (190.7) (58.1) (2,230.4)

912.9 (1,822.2) (210.6) (11.4) (1,131.3)

215.0 7.9 (261.6) (14.1) (52.8)

(2,169.1) 0.4 (315.5) (9.0) (2,493.2)

(980.8) 0.4 (387.8) (9.6) (1,377.9)

(2,971.1) 0.4 (339.0) (8.5) (3,318.1)

(1,313.4) 0.0 (375.7) (7.2) (1,696.3)

(153.9) 1,040.0 886.1

1,094.3 886.1 1,980.4

(1,266.0) 1,980.4 714.4

(159.7) 714.4 554.8

120.6 554.8 675.4

125.8 675.4 801.2

820.8 801.2 1,622.0

1,557.5 1,622.0 3,179.5

(547.0) 3,179.5 2,632.5

1,393.2 2,632.5 4,025.7

2006A

2007A

2008F

2009F

2010F

2011F

2012F

2013F

2014F

2015F

55.41 1.45 1.17 3.38

72.99 4.55 3.95 10.67

54.68 2.32 2.19 4.74

52.81 1.86 1.78 4.01

49.67 1.56 1.47 3.70

51.15 1.64 1.54 3.47

42.34 1.08 0.92 2.66

36.06 0.78 0.52 2.22

26.21 0.48 0.29 1.71

20.51 0.34 0.09 1.29

4.05

1.44

1.67

2.31

2.51

2.73

2.89

3.13

3.94

4.73

5.76 65.77 92.66

2.27 19.91 24.17

2.54 44.64 52.89

3.63 54.71 64.53

3.83 70.51 85.07

4.14 78.32 93.88

4.39 114.38 158.71

4.65 151.19 288.38

5.85 239.69 601.13

7.66 42.29 Net Cash

1.42 1.53

0.65 0.70

0.64 0.71

0.98 1.11

0.92 1.02

0.81 0.90

1.45 1.60

1.33 1.43

1.79 1.95

2.99 3.22

53.63 24.28 10.77

60.32 16.63 12.77

45.53 12.57 9.77

60.81 24.18 14.69

60.38 26.61 14.27

57.55 21.24 11.39

59.71 22.02 11.80

59.89 22.87 12.26

60.10 20.70 11.10

60.13 22.12 11.86

40.13

56.46

42.73

51.32

48.04

47.70

49.50

49.28

50.50

49.87

36.52 30.80 43.76 39.22 19.87 46.92

31.22 24.66 38.82 20.85 6.52 23.55

32.03 27.00 41.16 22.24 8.10 33.82

38.44 32.23 50.55 18.54 5.58 18.45

38.01 32.05 48.93 19.38 6.23 17.70

37.97 32.19 48.83 20.58 7.54 20.33

38.07 32.23 47.83 22.95 9.15 21.48

37.79 31.96 47.41 26.25 11.80 21.47

30.46 24.83 40.19 21.50 10.66 15.95

30.49 24.86 40.09 22.35 12.27 15.53

16.09

5.53

7.42

6.01

6.55

7.82

9.23

11.22

9.84

11.06

Cash receipt from customer Cash paid to supplier Interest paid Profit sharing paid Income tax paid

Net changes Cash at beginning Cash at end

Appendix 4. Ratio Y/e Dec, Rp bn Capitalization Total debt to total assets (%) Debt to equity (X) Net debt to equity (X) Debt to EBITDA (X) Coverage EBIT interest coverage (X) EBITDA interest coverage (X) FFO to total debt (%) FFO to net debt (%) Liquidity Quick ratio (X) Current ratio (X) Efficiency Ratios Receivable turnover (days) Payable turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days) Net Working Capital turnover (days) Profitability Gross margin (%) Operating margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net profit margin (%) Return on assets (%) Return on equity (%) Return on capital employed (%)

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