February 10, 2014
Indonesia
Daily Focus Market Recap
Market Index Last Trade
Chg (%)
MoM
YoY
4,466.7 937.3
0.9 0.8
4.0 -4.2
-1.5 -12.4
HANG SENG 21,636.9
1.0
-6.2
-7.7
KOSPI FTSE
1,907.9 6,571.7
0.9 0.2
-1.6 -2.7
-2.2 4.7
15,794.1 4,125.9
1.0 1.7
-4.9 -2.8
11.7 27.0
Last Trade Chg (bps)
MoM
YoY
JCI MSCI EM
DJIA NASDAQ Key Rates Policy Rate 3yr
7.50 7.77
0 2
0 -41
175 325
10yr
9.04
-3
24
379
Minyak light sweet diperdagangkan di level US$100 per barel di New York di tengah spekulasi data pekerjaan AS yang lebih lemah dari diperkirakan akan mempengaruhi keputusan the Fed untuk menahan pemangkasan stimulus. IHSG Jumat kemarin ditutup naik 41.96 poin (+0.95%) ke 4,464.67 dengan asing tercatat melakukan net buy di pasar reguler sebesar Rp596 miliar dengan saham yang paling banyak dibeli a.l. BBRI, ASRI, LPPF, BMRI, dan BBCA.
Technical View (By Budi Nainggolan;
[email protected])
FX Last Trade
Chg (%)
MoM
YoY
12,161.00
-0.3
-0.4
26.0
KRW/USD JPY/USD
1,073.75 102.46
-0.1 0.2
1.2 -1.8
-1.6 8.5
CNY/USD
6.06
0.0
0.2
-2.7
Last Trade Chg (bps)
MoM
YoY
IDR/USD
Pada perdagangan hari Jumat (07/2) Indeks Dow Jones ditutup naik 165,55 poin (+1,06%) ke 15.794,08 di tengah rilisnya laporan nonfarm payrolls AS yang tidak buruk.
Commodities WTI
100.3
0.4
7.5
3.8
Gold Coal
1,268.0 79.9
0.4 -0.6
1.2 -5.6
-24.8 -13.9
872.5 152.5
0.9 0.0
-0.3 -14.4
-2.0 -25.7
14,140.0
1.1
3.5
-23.1
Palm Oil Rubber Nickel
IHSG kemarin berhasil breakout dari resistance triangle, selanjutnya IHSG akan kembali menguji paling tidak 4,510 sebagai resistance level high klasik berikutnya.
Untuk perdagangan hari ini kami perkirakan akan naik. Adapun support level untuk perdagangan hari ini adalah 4,401 dan resistance level di 4,510.
Trading Strategy Trading Buy
Table 1. Chart in Focus JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets
(pt) 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 11/12
JCI Index MSCI EM
(pt) 1,100 1,000 900
04/13
09/13
800 02/14
Name
Ticker
Price
Resist. 1
Malindo Feedmill Mitra Adiperkasa Media Nusantara Bank Rakyat Indonesia Indocement Tunggal Gajah Tunggal
MAIN MAPI MNCN BBRI INTP GJTL
3,265 6,025 2,295 8,725 21,500 2,020
3,300 6,100 2,350 8,900 21,800 2,100
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia
Resist. 2 Support 1 Support 2 3,400 6,200 2,400 9,200 22,400 2,200
3,100 5,900 2,250 8,500 21,200 1,900
3,000 5,800 2,200 8,200 20,600 1,800
Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)
The pricey marathon runner
Consumer & Retail
Company brief
Company Report February 10, 2014
HOLD
Recommendation Target Price (12M, IDR)
30,744
Share Price (02/05/14,IDR)
28,225 8.9
Expected Return (%)
OP (14F,IDRbn)
215,357
EPS Growth (14F, %)
7,630
P/E (14F, x)
21,650
Unilever in Indonesia was established in 1933 as Lever’s Zeepfabrieken NV in Batavia. The company name was changed to PT Unilever Indonesia in1980 and offered 15% of its shares to become one of the listed companies Indonesia Stock Exchange. At the present, PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR) is one of Indonesia’s leading Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) companies with the market cap around IDR198tr as of Dec 31 2013. UNVR’s portfolio of Home & Personal Care (HPC) as well as Foods & Refreshment (F&R) products is distinguished by the world’s best known and most trusted brands
Financial Performance Overview As of September 2013 (9M13), UNVR posted revenues of IDR23.0tr, grew approximately 13% YoY. This implies a run-rate of 74% of our FY13 estimates. The main contributor of UNVR’s revenue up till 9M13 is HPC business. On the margin perspective, UNVR’s gross profit margin till 9M13 increased to 51.4% from 51.0% in 9M12. The operating expenses in 9M13 rose 17% YoY to IDR6.4tr, exceeding the gross profit growth. Hence, the operating income grew around 11% to IDR5.4tr and operating profit margin was 24%. At the bottom line, the net profit rose 12% YoY to IDR4.09tr.
JCI
37,350
Doubling the size at a marathoner pace
Market Cap (IDRbn)
215,357
Long distance runners not only do they have very specific goals on what they want to achieve but also have to keep their commitment. To complete the race, marathon runners need to implement the right strategy and know the moment when to run fast or maintain a constant speed. Excellent stamina becomes an important factor just as marathon runner. Like a marathon runner, UNVR has a specific goal. They want to double the size of business, whilst reducing environmental footprint, and increasing their positive social impact. UNVR have been implementing their best strategy to face the dynamic market and economic challenges. Prudence in managing assets and debt makes UNVR’s financial position keep excellent.
Shares Outstanding (mn)
7,630 21,650
52-Week Low 52-Week High (iDR)
37,350
(%) UNVR
1M 8.3
6M -17
12M 32.8
JCI
6.3
-6.3
1.5
320 280 240 200 160 120 80
1/10
Reinstate coverage with a Hold commendation
JCI Index UNVR
1/11
1/12
PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia Consumer & Retail
Andrew Argado +62-21-515-1141
[email protected]
1/13
1/14
Comparatively and historically UNVR’s valuations look rich. Our comparative analysis against global and local peers, UNVR is trading at a higher price to earnings ratio (P/E). Historically, UNVR’s P/E is on an uptrend. UNVR has been trading in range 25xP/E to 50xP/E since 2009. We reinstate our coverage on UNVR with a HOLD recommendation and target price of IDR 30,744, implying an8.9% upside from its current price. In our view, Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is one of strategies that can be applied by long-term investors who invest in UNVR on the back of the company’s solid growth and highdividend payout policy.
FY (Dec.)
12/09
12/10
12/11
12/12P
12/13F
12/14F
Revenue (IDRbn)
19,690
23,469
27,303
30,989
35,707
41,108
OP (IDRbn) OP Margin (%)
4,543 23.07
5,455 23.24
6,455 23.64
7,192 23.21
8,275 23.17
9,497 23.10
Net Profit (IDRbn) EPS (IDR)
3,387 444
4,165 546
4,839 634
5,338 700
6,189 811
7,145 936
ROE (%)
83.72
113.29
121.94
119.45
136.54
136.49
37.17 19,690
34.44 23,469
32.88 27,303
37.16 30,989
38.00 35,707
32.92 41,108
P/E (x) P/B (x)
Note: Net Profit refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia
February 10, 2014
Indonesia Daily Focus
News Recap GIAA: Garuda Pastikan Rights Issue Rp2 Triliun Pada April 2014. Maskapai penerbangan pelat merah PT Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk memastikan akan menerbitkan saham baru atau rights issue pada April tahun ini. Direktur Keuangan Garuda Handrito Hardjono menuturkan aksi korporasi itu ditargetkan mampu meraup dana sebesar Rp2 triliun untuk membiayai pengembangan bisnis perseroan beberapa tahun ke depan (multiyears). (Bisnis Indonesia) MTFN: Akuisisi Blok ONWJ, Capitalinc Rights Issue Rp2,78 Triliun. PT Capitalinc Investment Tbk mengincar dana segar hingga Rp2,78 triliun dari penawaran saham terbatas (rights issue) yang akan digelar pada Maret 2014. Perseroan berencana menggelar penawaran umum terbatas (PUT) IV kepada para pemegang saham perseroan dalam rangka penerbitan hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu (HMETD). (Bisnis Indonesia) ENRG: Energi Tak Berniat Rights Issue dalam Waktu Dekat. Kelanjutan rencana PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk menerbitkan saham baru dengan Hak Memesan Efek Terlebih Dahulu (HMETD) semakin tidak jelas, terutama setelah PT Capitalinc Investment Tbk (MTFN) berniat menggelar aksi korporasi serupa. Herwin W. Hidayat, Kepala Hubungan Investor ENRG enggan memberikan pernyataan tegas soal kelanjutan rencana aksi korporasi yang biasa disebut rights issue tersebut. (Kontan) BBNI: Pefindo Ganjar BBNI dengan Rating idAAA. PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) memberikan rating idAAA kepada PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. Rating ini mencerminkan jika BBNI memiliki outlook stabil. Rating didasari posisi bisnis yang sangat kuat, dan likuiditas yang baik. BBNI memiliki tawaran jasa perbankan secara menyeluruh, baik untuk perbankan korporasi, komersial, konsumer, internasional, treasury, dan perbankan syariah. (Kontan) DKFT: Simak Rencana Ekspansi DKFT Tahun Ini. Tahun ini, perusahaan tambang ini akan fokus ke beberapa hal. Diantaranya, membangun smelter ferronikel (FeNi) dan melakukan penambangan serta pengolahan bijih besi. Dalam penjelasan materi public expose perseroan, DKFT akan membangun smelter ferronikel di Morowali Utara, Sulawesi Tengah. Kapasitas smelter ini sebesar 320.000 ton FeNi per tahun. Nilai investasi untuk pembangunan pengolah FeNi ini sekitar US$ 300 juta. (Kontan) BBCA: Belum Tertarik Ekspansi ke ASEAN. Pemberlakuan Qualified ASEAN Bank (QAB) ibarat gerbang membukka peluang bank nasional berekspansi bisnis ke pasar negara tetangga. Namun Bank Central Asia (BCA) menyatakan belum tertarik berekspansi ke Asia Tenggara pasca pemberlakuan QAB. Menurut Jahja Setiatmadja, Presiden Direktur BCA, bank ini sementara ini tidak terlalu tertarik dengan QAB. (Kontan) APLN: Agung Podomoro Proyeksikan Penjualan Capai Rp 7,5 Triliun di 2014. Perusahaan properti PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk optimistis target penjualan pemasaran (marketing sales) tahun ini bisa tumbuh sekitar 10%-15% menjadi Rp 7,5 triliun, dibanding realisasi penjualan pada 2013 sebesar Rp 6,3 triliun. Kenaikan penjualan didorong peluncuran beberapa proyek baru, ungkap direksi perusahaan. (Indonesia Finance Today)
KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
3
February 10, 2014
Indonesia Daily Focus
Chart 1. JCI Vs. IDR/USD
Chart 2. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
JCI Composite Index IDR/USD Currency
(pt) 4,750
IDR 12,800
(%, %p) 12
Absolute Relative
8
4,500
12,300
4,250
11,800
4
4,000
11,300
0
10,800 2/14
-4
3,750 11/13
12/13
1/14
1D
1W
1M
Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Chart 3. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM)
Chart 4. Oil price
1 Day
(USDmn)
5 Days
(pt)
200
110
-450
105
-1,100
WTI
Brent
1Y
Dubai
100
-1,750 95
-2,400 Korea
Taiwan IndonesiaThailandPhilipines India
90 11/13
12/13
1/14
Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Chart 5. Non-metal price
Chart 6. Precious metal price
(pt)
Copper
Nickel
Tin
(pt)
110
Silver
Gold
2/14
Platinum
105 100
105
95 100 90 95
85
90
80 11/13
12/13
1/14
Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
2/14
11/13
12/13
1/14
2/14
Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
4
February 10, 2014
Indonesia Daily Focus
Table 2. Key valuation metrics Company Name
Ticker
Price
Market Cap
(IDR)
(IDRbn)
Price Performance (%)
1D
1W
1M
1Y
FY13
P/E(X)*
FY14
FY13
P/B(X)*
FY14
FY13
ROE(%)*
FY14
BANKING Bank Central Asia Tbk PT Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk PT
BBCA BMRI
10,250 8,775
252,714 204,750
2.0 0.3
3.3 0.9
9.9 12.1
3.0 -0.8
18.1 11.9
15.9 10.6
4.1 2.4
3.4 2.0
24.0 21.2
23.0 20.2
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk PT Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Tbk PT
BBRI BBNI
8,725 4,250
215,238 79,257
0.9 1.2
4.8 -2.5
21.6 14.1
8.4 0.0
9.4 9.4
8.3 8.6
2.2 1.6
1.9 1.4
25.6 17.9
24.5 17.2
Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT
BDMN
4,380
41,981
-0.1
0.9
20.8
-27.6
10.4
10.0
1.3
1.2
13.5
12.8
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk PT PROPERTY
BTPN
4,510
26,340
0.0
-0.3
2.5
-3.5
11.4
10.5
2.6
2.1
25.7
22.6
Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT Ciputra Property Tbk PT
SSIA CTRP
725 720
3,411 4,428
5.6 1.4
8.2 6.7
29.5 24.1
-46.7 -10.0
4.7 8.4
4.1 8.0
1.5 1.0
1.2 0.9
37.7 12.4
29.7 11.8
Pakuwon Jati Tbk PT
PWON
327
15,748
-0.6
6.5
18.9
18.9
13.4
10.5
2.3
1.8
33.2
31.0
Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT Bumi Serpong Damai PT
ASRI BSDE
555 1,540
10,905 26,945
4.7 4.3
8.8 6.9
23.9 21.7
-30.6 14.9
7.6 12.0
6.7 13.5
1.9 2.8
1.5 2.4
29.3 25.1
26.3 18.2
CONSTRUCTION Total Bangun Persada Tbk PT
TOTL
720
2,455
1.4
6.7
37.1
-28.0
11.6
10.0
3.1
2.6
29.8
29.2
Adhi Karya Persero Tbk PT Wijaya Karya Persero Tbk PT
ADHI WIKA
1,915 2,030
3,450 12,464
2.3 0.7
7.6 4.1
29.8 23.4
-14.9 24.5
9.9 21.4
8.7 17.5
2.4 4.2
2.0 3.5
25.8 20.4
24.6 20.4
Pembangunan Perumahan Persero Tbk PT
PTPP
1,390
6,731
0.7
3.0
21.4
54.4
16.7
14.2
3.5
3.0
21.2
22.0
Waskita Karya Persero Tbk PT RETAIL & CONSUMER
WSKT
605
5,828
1.7
12.0
47.9
-
17.2
14.1
2.5
2.2
15.3
15.9
Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT Kalbe Farma Tbk PT
INDF KLBF
7,050 1,415
61,902 66,328
2.1 0.7
1.1 0.7
5.2 8.8
6.8 29.8
18.2 34.0
15.0 28.3
2.7 8.3
2.3 7.2
14.0 26.1
16.2 26.3
Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk PT
MAPI
6,025
10,002
-0.4
10.6
20.5
-7.3
26.1
22.1
4.0
3.5
16.3
17.2
Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT
UNVR ICBP
28,225 11,150
215,357 65,015
0.3 1.1
-1.1 1.4
7.7 10.7
28.3 39.4
39.4 26.3
36.1 23.2
48.2 5.1
42.8 4.5
128.4 20.1
127.2 20.2
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk PT Mayora Indah Tbk PT
RALS MYOR
1,380 27,000
9,792 24,147
1.5 -0.7
8.7 0.0
25.5 8.0
16.0 52.2
21.8 27.4
20.3 25.0
3.0 6.5
2.9 5.4
14.0 25.5
14.3 23.3
Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk PT Gudang Garam Tbk PT
ACES GGRM
785 43,900
13,463 84,467
3.9 2.3
3.3 4.8
20.8 4.4
4.7 -12.0
30.5 19.2
26.1 16.9
7.1 2.9
5.8 2.6
24.6 15.6
24.1 15.5
Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk PT
ROTI
1,140
5,770
5.2
8.1
14.0
-5.0
34.3
25.2
7.2
5.8
22.2
24.0
AUTOMOTIVE Astra International Tbk PT
ASII
6,525
264,155
0.4
1.6
-4.0
-15.8
14.3
12.8
3.3
2.9
24.0
23.1
Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk PT Astra Otoparts Tbk PT
IMAS AUTO
5,250 3,350
14,518 16,146
1.9 -0.1
7.3 -0.6
3.4 -6.2
-1.9 -8.1
20.1 15.1
14.8 12.4
2.5 1.7
2.2 1.6
14.2 14.7
15.4 14.1
Telekomunikasi Indonesia Persero Tbk PT XL Axiata Tbk PT
TLKM EXCL
2,295 4,850
231,336 41,392
3.0 1.4
0.9 0.0
9.3 -4.9
19.6 -10.2
15.4 28.7
14.3 18.5
3.8 2.5
3.5 2.3
25.6 10.2
25.0 12.6
Indosat Tbk PT INFRASTRUCTURE
ISAT
4,040
21,953
-1.0
-4.7
2.3
-41.4
81.9
30.7
1.2
1.2
-0.6
3.1
Jasa Marga Persero Tbk PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk PT
JSMR TBIG
5,175 6,350
35,190 30,458
2.3 5.9
0.0 2.4
10.8 2.4
-5.9 16.5
24.2 28.3
19.4 21.6
3.8 6.0
3.3 4.7
15.2 24.5
17.1 24.9
Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk PT Timah Persero Tbk PT
ANTM TINS
1,010 1,280
9,634 6,442
0.0 0.4
-1.9 0.0
0.0 -5.9
-26.3 -22.9
15.3 21.7
15.7 10.6
0.7 1.4
0.7 1.3
6.1 7.0
5.7 12.0
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Persero Tbk CEMENT
PTBA
9,625
22,177
3.9
4.1
2.7
-37.1
12.9
11.4
2.6
2.4
20.4
21.8
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT
INTP
21,500
79,146
-0.1
-4.0
6.4
0.5
15.7
14.2
3.5
3.0
23.5
22.1
Holcim Indonesia Tbk PT Semen Indonesia Persero Tbk PT
SMCB SMGR
2,100 14,950
16,092 88,676
0.0 0.9
1.2 5.3
-7.1 5.8
-32.3 -7.4
15.7 16.4
14.1 14.9
1.8 4.3
1.7 3.7
11.7 28.1
11.7 26.4
TELECOMMUNICATION
MINING
Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
5
February 10, 2014
Indonesia Daily Focus
Sector performance
Top 10 market cap performance
Name
Index
Agricultural
Chg (%)
1,990.4 1,168.2 509.6 1,168.2 1,908.2 374.6 978.2 590.3 788.3 4,466.7
Mining Basic-Industry Miscellaneous Industry Consumer Goods Property & Construction Infrastructure Finance Trade Composite
Ticker 0.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.0 1.6 0.0 1.5 0.9 0.9
Price
Market Cap (IDRbn) 925 1,150 2,020 1,030 1,380 810 2,435 3,505 8,725 1,910
CTRA IJ NISP IJ GJTL IJ BBTN IJ RALS IJ ARNA IJ INCO IJ SMSM IJ BBRI IJ MSKY IJ
Chg (%)
14,028.4 13,095.2 7,039.3 10,881.5 9,792.5 5,946.6 24,195.0 5,046.0 215,238.4 13,492.0
7.6 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.2 5.9 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.8
Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers
Top 5 lagging movers
Name
Chg (%)
BBRI IJ ASII IJ BMRI IJ BBCA IJ SMGR IJ
Close 3.9 2.0 1.7 1.0 2.8
Name 8,725 6,525 8,775 10,250 14,950
Chg (%)
TLKM IJ GGRM IJ MAYA IJ SIDO IJ BNII IJ
Close -0.4 -1.0 -4.8 -2.2 -1.3
2,295 43,900 1,980 910 310
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar Time
Currency
Detail
Forecast
Previous
6:50am 6:50am 12:00pm 12:00pm 2:45pm 4:00pm 4:30pm
JPY JPY JPY JPY EUR EUR EUR
Current Account Bank Lending y/y Consumer Confidence Economy Watchers Sentiment French Industrial Production m/m Italian Industrial Production m/m Sentix Investor Confidence
-0.06T
-0.05T 2.3% 41.3 55.7 1.3% 0.3% 11.9
43.9 55.5 -0.1% 0.0% 10.3
Source: Forex Factory
Disclaimers This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (DWS). It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of DWS and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of DWS, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither DWS, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. © PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia 2014.
KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
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