Indonesia Economic Update & ICT Overview Prof. Firmanzah.,PhD Disajikan pada Indonesia Broadband Economy Forum Kemenko Perekonomian RI dan KADIN 21 September 2011
Ekonomi Dunia
Laju pertumbuhan > 5%
Peringkat 18 negara dengan PDB terbesar di dunia th 2010… Th 2025????
INDONESIA Jumlah Penduduk 2010
236.7 juta jiwa
Peringkat Daya Saing Global
60-65% usia dewasa (15-60)
2009 – 2010 – 2011
PDB 2010
6.422 triliun
54 – 44 - 46 =
PDB per kapita 2010
US $ 706 Milyar US $ 3.000
Pertumbuhan PDB 2010
6,1 %
Growth PDB by sector 2010
Pengangkutan & komunikasi (13,5 %) perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran (8,7 %)
konstruksi (7,0 %) Jasa-jasa (6,0 %)
keuangan, real estat, dan jasa perusahaan (5,7%) Listrik, gas, air bersih (5,3%)
Tenaga kerja Per sektor 2010
Pertanian (38,3 %) perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran (20,8 %)
Jasa-jasa (14,0 %) Manufaktur (12,8 %)
Pengangkutan&Komunikasi (5,2%) Konstruksi (5,1%)
Cadangan devisa per Juli 2011
Angka kemiskinan Maret 2011
Manufaktur Pertanian (4,5%) (2,9%) Pertambangan (3,5%)
Keuangan,realestate & jasa lainnua (1,6%) Pertambangan Listrik, gas,air bersih (1,1%) (0,22%)
US $ 122,7 milyar
12,49 % (30,02 juta jiwa)
Indikator Makro 2006-2012 12
8 6.3
6
5.5
6.1
6
6.5
6.7
4.6
4
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
8
12
11
900 850
lifting
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
7
6.6
5.65
Inflasi
5.3
2.8
0
20
20
10
20
09 20
20
20
20
08
2
07
0
06
4
950
6.6
6
2
1000
11.1
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Kurs lifting harga minyak dunia
959 899 931 944 954 945 950
harga minyak 64 70 97 62 79 95 90 dunia
Diolah dari Kemneterian Keuangan, 2011 2006-2010 LKPP; 2011 APBN-P; 2012 RAPBN
11000 10500 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500
10408 9691 9164
9140
9087 8700
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
8800
2012
Percentage Distribution of GDP by Expenditure Th 2010 % GDP 80
32,5% Pembentukan modal tetap bruto
Household final consumption
70 60
22,6 % Impor (-)
Exports of goods & services
50 Gross fixed capital formation
40
23,2 % Ekspor
30
8,9% Konsumsi Pemerintah
20 Imports of goods & services
10
Source: World Bank and BPS
2010*
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1981
1980
0
1982
General government final consumption
56,6% Konsumsi RT
Inventory (0,8%), diskrepansi staistik (0,6%)
Pertumbuhan ekonomi-pertumbuhan industri 1997-2010
7 6
6.0
5.3
5
4.7 3.9
4
5.9 5.3
4.9 3.3 3.8
3
4.3
5.6
4.9
4.6 5.6
6.3 4.6
5.5
4.6
6.0 6.1
4.7 3.7
2 1
4.5 4.5
0.8
2.1
0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9
Pertumbuhan periode 19861991, pertumbuhan industri > 10%, 1992-1996 pertumbuhan industri di angka 9,6%-11,6%
-10 -11.4
-11 -12 -13
-13.1
-14 1997
1998
1999
2000
Data BPS diolah
2001
2002
2003
pertumbuhan ekonomi
2004
2005 2006 pertumbuhan industri
2007
2008
2009
2010
Sumber : Bappenas
Global ICT Development 2000-2010
Lower than thailand, south africa
World-Internet users
Broadband penetration - World
ICT Development Index
Indonesia Connectivity Scorecard
Digital Economy Ranking 2010 Negara
Ranking 2009
Ranking 2010
Overall score
Connectivi ty
Business environm ent
Singapore
7
8
8,22
7,65
8,40
Socialcultural environn ment 7,27
Malaysia
38
36
5,93
4,35
7,36
Thailand
49
49
4,86
3,20
Philipina
54
54
4,47
Vietnam
64
62
Indonesia
65
65
Legal environm ent
Governme Consumer & nt policy Business & vision adoption
9,00
9,18
8,28
5,47
6,88
6,65
5,80
6,83
4,50
6,35
5,60
4,18
2,60
6,35
4,27
4,85
5,20
4,38
3,87
3,20
5,70
3,60
4,65
4,60
2,71
3,60
2,60
6,04
3,60
4,20
3,88
2,55
Sumber : The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2010
Technology Readiness, GCI-WEF
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
Tech.Read iness
Avail.of latest tech
Firm-level techabsorption
FDI & tech.transf er
Internet users
Broadband internet subscribers
Internet bandwith
Singapore
11
20
15
3
16
22
14
Malaysia
40
35
30
16
39
62
41
Vietnam
65
102
60
31
83
77
82
Thailand
68
64
66
34
86
88
75
Indonesia
91
77
65
54
107
99
102
Philipina
95
62
59
88
112
84
101
Tech.Read iness
Avail.of latest tech
Firm-level techabsorption
FDI & tech.transf er
Internet users
Broadband internet subscribers
Internet bandwith
Singapore
10
17
10
3
25
21
7
Malaysia
44
35
28
12
40
62
60
Vietnam
79
133
88
62
84
76
88
Thailand
84
82
75
32
93
77
83
Indonesia
96
74
54
64
117
103
108
Philipina
83
62
52
66
88
90
76
Yg menarik Indonesia pengguna facebook terbesar kedua setelah USA
PENETRASI & DENSITAS TIK
200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2007
Densitas TIK 150% Pengguna
Pengguna
Penetrasi TIK
100% 50% 0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Tahun 2008
2009
2010
2011
Tahun Year PSTN WLL GSM 3G NB BB i-TV
Source: Kemkominfo & Worldbank
PSTN per HH
WLL per HH
GSM per Pop
NB per HH
BB per HH
i-TV per HH
3G per Pop
PENETRASI & DENSITAS TIK Penetrasi PSTN+WLL dan Internet sektor Residensial 60% 50%
Penetrasi
40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Tahun
PSTN+WLL Source: Kemkominfo & Worldbank
GSM
3G
NB
BB
Broadband & Society
Midleton, 2007
Broadband & Competitiveness
Productivity
Administration cost
Reduce Production cost
Broadband Transaction cost
Broadband & Competitiveness • Broadband and economy impact Communication
Labor creation
New company
Purchasing Power
Broadband Innovation Affordability
Broadband and GDP growth • Previous research Katz et al (2009) 2000-2006 in Germany Koutroumpis (2009) 2002-2007 for 22 OECD countries Czernich et al.(2009) 1996-2007 for OECD countries
Qiang et al.(2009) 119 countries
An increase in of broadband penetration between 1% - 10% contributes in an increase GDP growth between 0,0025% - 1,5 %
Broadband penetration and Employment growth • Previous research Lehr et al.(2005) 1998-2002 for ZIP codes Crandall et al.(2007) For 48 states
Shideler et al. (2007)
Thompson et al. (2008) 2000-2006 for 48 states
An increase in of broadband penetration contributes in an increases employment growth varies by industry
Studies of the Employment Impact of Broadband
• •
First impact: Jobs created in order to deploy the infrastructure (e.g. construction), and Second impact: Employment generated as a result of network externalities on other sectors of the economy. The results of the research to date in these two areas will be reviewed in turn.
Katz, (2009)
Conceptual view of comparative broadband regional effects
Katz, 2009
Others…. • OECD (2008) broadband impact on productivity, SME’s, quality of life, consumer surplus • Prof. Raul L. Katz and Javier G. Avila (2009) broadband impacts on economic performance (GDP growth and employment growth) • Fornefeld et.al (2008) broadband impact on growth and productivity • Crandall (2008) broadband deployment contributes in an increases of growth, jobs and investment • Hagén et.al (2008) Broadband improve firm productivity • Gillett et.al (2005) broadband access does enhance economic growth and performance
Broadband impact on the economy: Summary from previous research
Katz (2009)
Presentation Prof.Firmanzah, Ph.D Dean Faculty of Economics and Business University of Indonesia 2011
