ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010
Faisal Basri 10 November 2009
Bagian I Perkembangan Ekonomi Dunia Terkini
The world economy is facing a deep downturn in 2009 In the most severe recession since WW II, the global economy is projected to shrink by 1.1 percent in 2009, with slow (sluggish) recovery next year. Description
Jul 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Jan 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
Jul 09
Oct 09
World GDP growth, %
3.9
3.0
2.2
0.5
-0.8
-1.3
-1.4
-1.1
-United States
0.8
0.1
-0.7
-1.6
-2.6
-2.8
-2.6
-2.7
-Euro Area
1.2
0.2
-0.5
-2.0
-3.2
-4.2
-4.8
-4.2
-Japan
1.5
0.5
-0.2
-2.6
-5.8
-6.2
-6.0
-5.4
-Developing economies
6.7
6.1
5.1
3.3
2.0
1.6
1.5
1.7
-China
9.8
9.3
8.5
6.7
-
6.5
7.5
8.5
-Asean-5
5.6
5.5
4.5
2.7
-
0.0
-0.3
0.7
6.0
4.1
2.0
-2.8
-
-11.0
-12.2
-11.9
World trade growth, %
Not available. Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues.
It’s been a lousy year for forecasters all over the world.)
Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb. Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) October 2009 5:14 p.m. EDT
US$77.65 =
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118 Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134 Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145 Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150 •
Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.
Oil prices and stock market = 10,023.42
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Euro Zone: green shoots The two largest economies of the 16-country euro zone, Germany and France, grew in the second quarter after falling for four quarters.
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/14euro_graphic_ready.html
Business confidence is surging across EU and BRIC –FT, 10 August 2009, p.1 Business confidence is surging across European manufacturing, with the UK and Italy taking the lead. Optimism about production trends is back at levels seen before the intensification of the global slowdown late last year, and points to a clear growth in manufacturing activity by the middle of 2010. The so-called “Bric” countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – have also seen a strong rebound in manufacturing confidence, ..
Emerging Asia: an astonishing rebound The four emerging Asian economies which have reported GDP figures for the second quarter (China, Indonesia, South Korea and Singapore) grew by an average annualised rate of more than 10%. Source: From The Economist print edition, Aug 13th 2009.
Hong Kong joins Asia’s rapid climb out of recession. Hong Kong’s economy grew by a seasonally adjusted 3.3 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter, more than analysts had expected, adding to evidence that the recovery was solidifying in much of Asia, according to data published Friday. China, Singapore and South Korea have reported rebounds during the April-to-June period. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/business/global/15asiaecon.html?ref=global-business.
Change in value of exports (year-over-year)
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/20090815_CHARTS_GRAPHIC.html
U.S.: The case for optimism Why It's Smart To Be Optimistic
Sure, it has been a harrowing storm. And now is no time to discount the dangers that still exist. But opening your mind to optimism can help you seize the opportunities ahead ....
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/toc/09_34/B4144optimism.htm?chan=magazine+channel_top+stories
U.S. economic contraction slowed in quarter
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/01/business/economy/01econ.html?_r=1&th&emc=th
Deepening the pain: job losses pile up Job losses since the recession began in December 2007. Unemployment rateshot up to 10.2% in October 2009, a 26-year high. 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 -4000 -5000 -6000
Cumulative (000)
-7000
Montly job losses (000)
-8000 J
F
M
Source: U.S. Labor Department.
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
U.S. consumer confidence index Indeks kepercayaan konsumen adalah salah satu leading economic indicator bagi perekonomian. Setelah mengalami penurunan pada bulan Juni dan Juli, consumer Confidence Index naik tajam pada bulan Agustus menjadi 54.1 dari 47.4 sebulan sebelumnya. Source: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm
Bagian II Perekonomian Indonesia
The transmission of stress
Sources: IMF, April 2009.
Sumber daya tahan Perekonomian Indonesia dan sektor keuangannya tak terkait erat dengan sektor finansial AS. Sektor perbankan sudah cukup terkonsolidasi. Indikator kesehatan perbankan (ROA, ROE, NIM, CAR) di atas rata-rata negara tetangga, bahkan beberapa terbaik. Current account masih surplus. Peranan ekspor di dalam PDB relatif kecil. Porsi ekspor Indonesia ke AS, Eropa, dan Jepang sudah menunjukkan penurunan; bergeser ke EM dan Asean. Ruang gerak untuk stimulus fiskal cukup leluasa. Harga minyak sempat turun ke level di bawah $50 per barrel. Ketahanan pangan terjaga (a.l: komponen makanan dalam CPI mengalami deflasi berturut-turut dalam 4 bulan terakhir). Bonus: situasi politik yang memburuk di Thailand dan kurang kondusif di Malaysia; dan daya saing meningkat tajam.
East Asia entered the current crisis better prepared than it did the 1997 crisis (in percent of GDP unless indicated otherwise)
Source: The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Update, East Asia: Navigating the Perfect Storm, December 2008.
Countries more dependent on exports will likely be more vulnerable to the slowdown
Source: Asian Development Bank, The AsiIa Economic Monitor (AEM), July 2009, p. 5.
Direction of trade: Asean and Indonesia Fr om
Ingat: Peran Singapura !!!
Asean
Indonesia
2000
2007
2000
2007
37,4
41,2
33,1
37,1
China
3,7
8,9
4,2
8,1
Japan
12,6
9,4
22,1
18,1
United States
18,2
12,2
13,0
9,4
European Union
14,4
11,1
13,7
10,0
Others
13,7
17,2
13,7
17,3
To Developing Asia
Sources: ADB, March 2009
Ruang gerak stimulus fiskal WSJ, March 21, 2009
Stimulus Dilemma for China Spending on Public Works Risks Making Production Glut Worse http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123759537916001075.html
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Singapura tahun 2009 terjun bebas. Pemerintah “pasrah.” Stimulus jangka pendek sangat terbatas, karena hampir tak ada ruang gerak untuk pembenahan infrastruktur fisik. Segalanya sudah tersedia dengan kualitas prima.
The World competitiveness scoreboard Country USA Singapore Hong Kong Switzerland Australia China Taiwan Malaysia India Korea Thailand Philippines Indonesia Venezuela
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 4 10 9 7 27 17 21 42 32 28 41 49 51
1 2 6 14 4 22 12 16 30 31 26 43 49 51
1 3 2 8 9 29 11 26 33 27 25 40 50 51
1 3 2 8 6 18 17 22 27 32 29 42 52 53
1 2 3 6 12 15 18 23 27 29 33 45 54 55
Source: International Institute for Management Development, World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2009.
1 2 3 4 7 17 13 19 29 31 27 40 51 55
1 3 2 4 7 20 23 18 30 27 26 43 42 57
Economic temperature cooler .. Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, %
14.6
percent
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 2002 2003 0
18.4
Source: BPS.
4.6
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2.6
BI Rate bertahan di 6.5 persen 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0
Source: Bank Indonesia.
BI rate turun tapi SBI naik terus Rp Trn
persen
300
12
280 11
260 240
10
220 200
9
180 8
160 140
7
120 100
6 2007
2008 SBI Outstanding (sumbu kiri) SBI 1-bulan (sumbu kanan)
2009 BI Rate (sumbu kanan)
Pertumbuhan suplai uang relatif rendah YoY% 50
40 30
20 10
0 2005
2006
2007
2008
-10
M2 -20
M1
M0
2009
Belanja pemerintah masih seret Rp Trn
percent
250
14 Rekening Pem erintah di BI Inter Bank Rate
200
12
BI Rate
10 150
8 6
100
4 50 2 0
0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
23-Oct
Jul-28
May-04
Feb-05
6-Nov
8-Aug
16-May
20-Feb
16-Nov
20-Aug
28-May
1-Mar
6-Dec
7-Sep
14-Jun
17-Mar
23-Dec
27-Sep
Jul-05
11-Apr
12-Jan
15-Oct
22-Jul
8-Apr
Heart beat has been appreciating ... (Rupiah per US$)
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500 Source: Bank Indonesia
W 1J W a 2F W e 3M W a 4A W p 1Jn W 2W Jl 3 W -Ag 4S W ep 1N W ov 2D W ec 3J W an 4F W eb 1A W pr 2M W ay 3Ju W n 4W Jul 1S W ep 2O W ct 3N W ov 4D W ec 2A 31 p r -A u 31 g -J a 29 n -J 31 u n -A ug 5O 15 c t -N 19 ov -D e 31 c -J a 6- n M a 15 r -A 23 p r -M 30 ay -J u 7- n A 15 u g -S e 24 p -O Fe ct b2 Ju 7 l-3 1
Foreign reserves increased more than $7 bil. (US$ million)
65000.00
SBY era
60000.00
55000.00
50000.00
45000.00
40000.00
35000.00
30000.00
Source: Bank Indonesia.
JSX index recovered significantly Business Week, 14-21 Maret 2007, hal.18.
(Jakarta composite index)
2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900
Aug-27
Jun-16
Apr-03
Jan-21
5-Nov
20-Aug
10-Jun
31-Mar
15-Jan
26-Oct
14-Aug
6-Jun
23-Mar
12-Jan
1-Nov
14-Aug
6-Jun
21-Mar
9-Jan
24-Oct
12-Aug
6-Jun
23-Mar
7-Jan
22-Oct
800
Debt to GDP ratio
Source: Bank Indonesia.
The role of FDI in Asia & South America, 2006 FDI flows to GFCF Country Venezuela Bangladesh Sri Lanka Indonesia China India Argentina Taiwan Brazil Vietnam Philippines Thailand Peru Bolivia Malaysia Pakistan Ecuador Chile Cambodia Singapore Asia South America
FDI stocks to GDP
Percent -2.1 3.9 6.2 6.4 8.0 8.7 9.6 10.3 10.5 12.5 14.1 16.5 18.9 19.5 20.1 24.1 24.8 28.3 38.9 79.5 12.9 13.1
Country Indonesia India Bangladesh Sri Lanka China Pakistan Taiwan Philippines Peru Brazil Venezuela Argentina Thailand Malaysia Ecuador Cambodia Bolivia Vietnam Chile Singapore Asia South America
Percent 5.2 5.7 6.3 10.9 11.1 11.4 14.2 14.6 20.7 20.8 25.0 27.4 33.0 36.0 39.9 41.6 44.6 54.8 55.4 159.0 24.9 26.0
Notes: FDI = Foreign Direct Investment (inward); GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation; GDP = Gross Domestic Product. Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.
Balance of payments (US$ million) 2008 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 H1-09 I. A. CURRENT ACCOUNT Goods, net (Trade Balance)
285
-891
-684
2,885
3,104
5,989
22,916
5,771
4,166
6,969
8,705
15,674
139,606116,690
38,081
29,768
24,205
27,509
51,714
-32,309
-25,603
-17,236
-18,805
36,041
-12,74515,271
-3,195
-3,288
-2,535
-3,097
-5,632
-4,803
-2,879
-2,672
-3,714
6,386
5,385
1,336
1,317
1,122
1,210
2,332
-1,354
904
-3,340
1,750
-2,414
-664
294
187
29
19
29
48
B. Financial Account
-1,648
717
-3,368
1,731
-2,443
-712
1. Direct investment
2,799
404
2,061
1,660
9
1,669
2. Portfolio investment
1,721
-74
- 4,377
1,859
2,003
3,862
-6,167
387
-1,052
-1,788
-4,455
-6,243
-876
-103
-188
-680
362
-318
1,945
89
4,212
-3,955
-1,052
-5,007
1. Exports, f.o.b. 2. Imports, f.o.b. B. Services, net C. Income, net D. Current II. CAPITAL & Transfers, FINANCIALnet ACCOUNT A. Capital Account
3. Other investment III. RESERVES ERRORS & &RELATED OMISSIONS IV. ITEMS Source: Bank Indonesia.
7 5
6.4 6.4 5.2 4.4 4.0
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
6.6
Indonesia’s post-crisis journey
3 1 -1 -3 -5 -7
Gus Dur: “Erratic/shaky”
-9 -11
Megawati: Consolidation and acceleration
-13 -15
SBY: Throws away Momentum, and then made correction
-17 -19 -21
Crisis peak
Source: BPS.
Low quality — Sectoral growth rate (2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %) 2007
2008 Q1-09
Q2-09
H1-09
H1-Share
3.9
3.4
2.6
1.93
2.3
48.4
Agriculture
3.4
4.8
5.2
2.4
3.7
14.0
Mining & Quarrying
2.0
0.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
8.2
Manufacturing
4.7
3.7
1.5
1.5
1.5
26.2
8.8
8.7
6.1
6.2
6.0
51.7
10.3
10.9
11.4
15.4
13.4
0.8
Construction
8.6
7.3
6.3
6.4
6.3
6.3
Trade, Hotel & Rest.
8.4
7.2
0.5
-0.1
0.2
16.6
Transport & Comm.
14.0
16.7
17.1
17.5
17.3
8.7
Finance
8.0
8.2
6.3
5.3
5.8
9.7
Services
6.6
6.4
6.8
7.4
7.1
9.6
6.3
6.1
4.4
4.0
4.2
100.0
Tradable
Non-Tradable Electricity, Gas & Water
GDP Source: BPS.
Low quality growth, 2000-2009* (%) 10
Non-tradable 8 6
GDP 4
Tradable
2 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 * January-June. Source: BPS.
GDP growth by expenditure (y-o-y, %) 2009 Description
2006 2007 2008
Q2
H1
6,0
4,8
5,4
57,1 7,1
Private consumption Government consumption
3,2
5,0
9,6
3,9
10,4 19,2 17,0 18,0
Fixed investment
2,6
9,4
11,7
3,4
2,7
3,0
23,2
Domestic demand
3,6
6,0
7,4
6,2
5,3
5,8
87,5
Exports
9,4
8,5
9,5 -18,7 -15,7 -17,2
23,7
Imports
8,6
9,0
10,0 -26,0 -23,9 -24,9
20,6
GDP
5,5
6,3
Source: BPS..
5,3
Q1
H1Share
6,1
4,4
4,0
4,2
100,0
Foreign merchandise trade Ekspor total maupun nonmigas mulai naik sejak Juni (m-to-m)
Description Total export
Growth (yoy)
Billion US$ 2006
2007
100.8 114.1
2008
2009* 2006 2007
2008
2009*
136.8
80.1
17.7
13.1
19.9
-25.6
Non-oil and gas
79.6
92.0
107.8
68.1
19.8
15.5
78.8
-18.2
Oil and gas
21.2
22.1
29.0
12.0
10.3
4.1
21.2
-50.7
Total import
61.1
74.5
105.1
68.3
5.8
21.9
41.1
-32.8
Non-oil and gas
42.1
52.5
74.8
55.2
4.6
24.8
42.4
-26.9
Oil and gas
19.0
21.9
30.3
13.1
8.6
15.5
38.0
-49.9
Surplus (Deficit)
39.7
39.6
31.7
11.8
Non-oil and gas
37.5
39.5
33.0
12.9
2.2
0.2
(1.3)
(1.1)
Oil and gas * January-September. Source: BPS.
Trade balance of oil and oil products Crude Oil Exports Imports (X - M) Oil Products Exports Imports (X - M) Total Exports Imports (X - M)
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009*
5,228 3,217 2,011
5,621 3,928 1,694
6,241 5,831 410
8,146 6,797 1,349
8,169 7,853 316
9,226 9,057 169
12,419 10,044 2,375
5,258 5,009 249
1,308 3,309 2,001
1,548 3,583
1,654 1,932 5,892 10,646
2,844 11,080
2,879 12,787
3,379 20,165
1,549 7,734
-2,035
-4,238 -8,714
-8,236
-9,908 -16,786
-6,185
6,535 6,526 10
7,169 7,896 10,078 7,510 11,724 17,443 -342 -3,828 -7,365
11,013 18,933 -7,920
12,105 15,798 21,844 30,209 -9,739 -14,411
6,807 12,743 -5,936
* January-September. Source: BPS.
Trade balance of oil and gas US$ million 15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
-15000
2002
2003
2004
Oil & oil products * January-February. Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
2005
2006 Gas
2007 Oil & gas
2008
2009*
Indeks produksi industri bulanan
Sumber: BPS .
Otomotif dan sepeda motor mulai naik..
Konsumsi semen naik ke level tertinggi
Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals Visitors: Jan-Sep 2008 = 4,570,492 Jan-Sep 2009 = 4,619,483
Growth: Sep 2009 (m-t-m) = -12.88% Jan-Jul 2009 (y-o-y) = 1.07%
700000 2008
2009
600000
500000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
400000
Sources: BPS
Indeks tendensi konsumen 110
100
90
Q3-09 is prediction. Source: BPS.
Indeks tendensi bisnis 120 110 100 90
Q3-09 is prediction. Source: BPS.
Bagian III Liingkungan Politik
Decoupling between politics and economic activities? Jakarta International Java Jazz Festival, held on 6-8 March 2009. The festival's 19 stages featured more than 300 performances. There isn't a jazz festival larger than Java Jazz Festival in this part of the world.
Approximately 1500 delegates from 35 countries attended the 5th World Islamic Economic Forum, in Jakarta, 1-4 March 2009. The 42th Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the Asian Development Bank will be held in Bali, 4-5 May 2009. The Seminar Series and other ancillary meetings will commence from 2 May 2009.
World Ocean Conference, to be held in Manado on May 11-14, 2009.
Major bombings since 2002 Place
Date
Bali I
October 12, 2002
JW Marriot
August 5, 2003
Australian Embassy
September 9, 2004
Bali II
October 1, 2005
Ritz Carlton & JW Marriot
July 17, 2009
The impact of bombings to the economy IDR/US$ index, days after terror attacts 0 = day of bomb blast Source: Helmi Armand, “Indonesia Economic Briefing –Jakarta Blasts: Possible market implication,“17 July 2009.
Indonesia composite index, days after terror attacts 0 = day of bomb blast Source: Helmi Armand, “Indonesia Economic Briefing –Jakarta Blasts: Possible market implication,” 17 July 2009.
Kecenderungan umum Dua kali pemilu pascareformasi berlangsung sangat damai. Masih ada euphoria demokrasi sejalan dengan proses konsolidasi demokrasi, utamanya penguatan kelembagaan. Tidak terjadi kristalisasi kutub-kutub ekstrem, baik kiri maupun kanan konvergensi ideologi atau, bahkan, non-ideologis. Praktis tak terjadi perubahan rezim. Yang sekarang bercokol adalah pentolan-pentolan Orde Baru: Presiden, Wapres, Ketua DPR, Ketua DPD, Menko Kesra kompromistik.
Penciutan jumlah partai Jumlah partai di DPR akan menciut dengan pemberlakuan parliamentary threshold 2,5 persen. Berdasarkan hasil pemilu 2009 hanya ada 9 (sembilan) partai. Pengelompokan antara partai berkuasa dan partai oposisi akan lebih tegas. Bisa menghasilkan pemerintahan dan checks & balances yang lebih efektif.
Kian konvergen Partai “kiri” tak ada yang lolos. Partai “kiri-tengah” merosot: PDIP Partai “kanan” melorot tajam (PPP), banyak pula yang tak lolos (PBB, PBR, PDS, PKNU, dll.) Partai “kanan-tengah” merosot (PKB dan PAN) Partai tengah menggelembung (PD, Golkar, Gerindra, Hanura)
Peluang jangan disia-siakan Tidak membutuhkan proses transisi yang panjang, karena incumbent. Pilpres satu putaran memberikan waktu yang cukup leluasa untuk mempersiapkan segalanya dengan lebih baik. Tim ekonomi pada kabinet mendatang diharapkan kredibel, kompeten dan kompak. RPJM realistik dan menukik atau fokus..
Bagian IV Prospek 2010
The world economic outlook, 2009-2010 Description
2009
2010
World GDP growth, %
-1.1
3.1
-United States
-2.7
1.5
-Euro Area
-4.2
0.3
-Japan
-5.4
1.7
-Developing economies
1.7
5.1
-China
8.5
9.0
-Asean-5
0.7
4.0
-11.9
2.5
World trade growth, % Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2009..
Indonesia upgraded!!! Despite the weakness of the global economy, the Economist Intelligence Unit has raised its forecast for Indonesian economic growth. We now expect real GDP to expand by 2.4% this year, compared with a contraction of 1.4% in our previous forecast. We expect growth to accelerate to 3.2% in 2010, up from 0.5% previously. (Source: economist.com, May 22nd 2009 From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire.)
IMF (June 5, 2009): Looking forward, we have raised our projection of economic growth for 2009 to 3-4 percent (from 2.5%) 2.5 with inflation expected to decline to about 5 percent by the end of the year. . Source: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09201.htm
Projections of GDP by several agencies No Agency
Date
2009
2010
March 2009
3.5
5.0
July 2009
4.5
5.5
1
Bank Indonesia
2
IIF
3
Gov’t of Indonesia
September 2009
4.5
5.5
4
ADB
September 2009
4.3
5.4
5
World Bank
September 2009
4.3
5.4
6
Economist
October 2009
4.2
4.5
7
IMF
October 2009
4.0
4.8
EIU’s prediction on Indonesian economy GDP growth, percent
Source: The Economist, various issues.
Projections of GDP by expenditures 2008
Description
2009*
2010*
BI
Bappenas
5,3
3,7
3.5
5.1
Gov’t consumption
10,4
9,9
7.7
13.2
Investment Exports (goods & services) Imports (goods & services Gross domestic product
11,7
6,0
5.0
4.5
9,5
-4.6
-6.0
-16.2
10,0
-4.8
-9.0
-21.8
6,1
4,0
4.0
4,7
Private consumption
* Projection
FB
FB
4.85.0 7.610.5 7.17.6 6.36.4 8.0 5.45.9
Projections of GDP by sector Economic sector 1. Agriculture 2. Mining 3. Manufacturing 4. Utilities 5. Construction 6. Trade and hospitality 7. Transport and communications 8. Finance 9. Services GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT * Projection
2008 4.8 0.5 3.7 10.9 7.3 7.2 16.7 8.2 6.4 6.1
2009* 3.9 1.5 2.5 11.1 6.4 2.3 15.5 6.2 6.5 4.7
2010* 3.4-3.6 0.4-1.6 3.1-3.9 10.7-11.2 6.9-7.2 4.6-5.7 15.2-16.6 6.5-6.9 6.5 5.4-5.9
Projection of selected economic indicators
GDP growth, % Inflation, % Current account, % of GDP BI rate, year end, % Rp/US$, period average
2008
2009
2010
6.1
4.7
5.4-5.9
11.2
3.8
4.5-5.5
0.1
1.0
0.6-0.8
9.25
6.25
7.00
9,767
10,050 9,250-9,500
Fiscal balance, % of GDP
-0.1
-2.0
-1.5
Open unemployment, %
8.4
8.1
8.0
Rupiah cenderung menguat Sepanjang likuiditas yang melimpah di AS belum disedot The Fed, nilai US$ akan cenderung melemah. Dengan pasar domestik yang cukup besar, Indonesia semakin menarik bagi FDI. Beberapa sudah masuk. Akan cukup banyak yang menyusul, asalkan .. Moody’s sudah meningkatkan rating Indonesia. Jika tak ada halangan mendasar, S & P pun diperkirakan bakal melakukan upgrade dari BB+ menjadi BBB-. Dengan begitu, institutional investors akan semakin tertarik masuk ke pasar modal kita. Namun volatilitas Rupiah harus tetap diwaspadai.
External vulnerability: regional comparison – economic perception Too big, too high
Bloomberg commodity price index
Should be here
Source: CITI’s Asia Macro Views, “Measuring Asia’s External Vulnerability,” 8 October 2008
Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB menurut pengeluaran Versi Dasar dengan pertumbuhan PDB rata-rata 2010-14 = 6,3% 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Konsumsi masyarakat
5,5
4,8
4,6
4,7
4,8
4,9
Konsumsi pemerintah
13,2
7,6
8,6
8,9
8,8
9,7
4,0
7,1
7,6
8,7
8,3
7,9
Ekspor barang & jasa
-16,2
6,4
7,7
12,2
14,8
15,3
Impor barang & jasa
-21,8
8,0
8,2
13,8
15,1
15,5
4,8
5,4
5,8
6,3
6,9
7,1
Investasi*
Produk Domestik Bruto
Versi Optimistik dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan PDB 2010-14 = 6,9% 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Konsumsi masyarakat
5,1
5,0
4,7
4,8
4,6
5,0
Konsumsi pemerintah
13,2
10,5
8,6
8,9
9,2
9,7
5,0
7,6
9,0
11,6
11,1
7,9
Ekspor barang & jasa
-16,2
6,4
9,8
12,2
14,2
15,7
Impor barang & jasa
-21,8
8,0
10,2
13,5
14,8
15,5
4,8
5,9
6,5
7,2
7,4
7,4
Investasi*
Produk Domestik Bruto
Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB menurut sektor Versi Dasar dengan pertumbuhan PDB rata-rata 2010-14 = 6,3% 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1. Pertanian
3,3
3,4
3,4
3,3
3,4
3,5
2. Pertambangan
0,4
0,4
0,3
0,4
1,1
0,9
3. Industri manufaktur
2,6
3,1
4,5
5,1
5,3
6,0
10,6
10,7
10,6
10,7
10,7
10,7
5. Konstruksi
7,2
7,3
7,0
7,1
7,1
7,1
6. Perdagangan & hospitalitas
2,4
4,6
5,3
6,7
7,0
7,1
16,1
15,2
14,3
14,5
16,7
16,3
8. Keuangan
8,0
7,9
7,4
7,5
7,4
7,5
9. Jasa-jasa
6,6
6,5
6,6
6,6
6,6
6,3
Produk Domestik Bruto
4,8
5,4
5,8
6,3
6,8
7,1
4. Utilitas
7. Transport & komunikasi
Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB menurut sektor Versi Optimistik dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan PDB 2010-14 = 6,9%
1. Pertanian 2. Pertambangan 3. Industri manufaktur 4. Utilitas 5. Konstruksi 6. Perdagangan & hospitalitas 7. Transport & komunikasi 8. Keuangan 9. Jasa-jasa Produk Domestik Bruto
2009 3,9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
3,8
4,0
4,1
4,2
1,5
3,6 1,6
2,3
2,7
2,2
2,0
2,6
3,9
4,8
5,5
6,3
6,5
11,2 6,4
11,2 6,9
11,5
11,7
11,7
11,4
7,5
7,5
7,3
7,1
2,3
5,7
6,6
7,3
7,6
7,4
16,5
16,6 6,9
15,6
17,7
16,7
16,3
7,5
7,6
7,5
6,9
6,6
6,6
6,6
6,3
6,5
7,2
7,4
7,4
6,2 6,6 4,8
6,5 5,9
Kebutuhan investasi Skenario
Baseline
Indikator
2008
2009F
2010F
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, %YoY
6.1
4.8
5.4
5.8
6.3
6.9
7.1
PDB Nominal, Rp Tril
4954
5795
6791
8015
9479
11299
13548
Kebutuhan Investasi, Rp Tril
1370
1698
1967
2405
2885
3240
3776
Investasi/PDB, %
27.6
29.3
29.0
30.0
30.4
28.7
27.9
ICOR
3.7
5.0
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.8
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, %YoY
6.1
4.8
5.9
6.5
7.2
7.4
7.4
4954
5795
6823
8104
9661
11577
13916
1370
1698
1976
2432
2941
3320
3879
27.6
29.3
29.0
30.0
30.4
28.7
27.9
3.7
5.0
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.6
PDB Nominal, Rp Tril Adjustment Kebutuhan Investasi, Rp Tril Investasi/PDB, % ICOR
Sumber dana investasi Skenario
Sumber
Unit
2008
2009F
2010F
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
Nilai, Rp T
1179
1500
1700
2091
2517
2815
3286
Pangsa, %
86.1
88.3
86.4
87.0
87.2
86.9
87.0
Nilai, Rp T
191
198
267
314
368
425
490
Pangsa, %
13.9
11.7
13.6
13.0
12.8
13.1
13.0
Nilai, Rp T
1370
1698
1967
2405
2885
3240
3776
Pangsa, %
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1005
841
996
1224
1464
1820
2249
Nilai, Rp T
1179
1500
1708
2114
2565
2885
3376
Pangsa, %
86.1
88.3
86.4
87.0
87.2
86.9
87.0
Nilai, Rp T
191
198
268
317
375
436
503
Pangsa, %
13.9
11.7
13.6
13.0
12.8
13.1
13.0
Nilai, Rp T
1370
1698
1976
2432
2941
3320
3879
Pangsa, %
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1005
841
1028
1280
1557
1916
2339
Swasta
Pemerintah Baseline Total Peningkatan PDB Rp T Swasta
Pemerintah Adjustment Total Peningkatan PDB Rp T
Catatan: - Investasi Pemerintah adalah Belanja Barang Modal Pemerintah Pusat + Pemerintah Dati I & II - Peningkatan PDB menggambarkan jumlah utang maksimum yang bisa dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah dengan menjaga rasio DEBT/GDP tetap konstan.
Keunikan Indonesia
Negara kepulauan Mewujudkan negara maritim yang mampu mengintegrasikan perekonomian domestik menuju negara maju yang berkeadilan
Kerangka Kerangka Strategi Strategi Pembangunan Pembangunan VISI: VISI: Mewujudkannegara negaramaritim maritimyang yangmampu mampumengintegrasikan mengintegrasikan Mewujudkan perekonomiandomestik domestik menuju menujunegara negaramaju majuyang yangberkeadilan berkeadilan perekonomian 1. Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dan M berkelanjutan; I 2. Perluasan penyerapan tenaga kerja; S I 3. Pengentasan kemiskinan dan pemerataan pembangunan.
Melaluipencapaian pencapaian55(lima) (lima)sasaran sasaranstrategis: strategis: Melalui Struktur ekonomi yang kokoh, mandiri dan berdaya saing
Sumber pembiayaan pembangunan mencukupi dan efisien
Sumber daya manusia produktif
Pemanfaatan SDA secara optimal dan lestari
Birokrasi yang kompeten, efektif dan bersih
Fokuspada areakebijakan: kebijakan: Fokus ada 77area : ppada kebijakan Infrastruktur
Kualitas sumber daya manusia
•Penyediaan infrastruktur (fisik • dan non fisik) yang handal; •Skema pendanaan •Kebijakan harga • infrastruktur.
Implementasi sistem pendanaan kesehatan berkelanjutan dan terencana; Pembangunan pendidikan mengacu pada output.
Lingkungan sosial dan politik
Teknologi •Peningkatan dan efisiensi alokasi anggaran negara untuk penelitian; •Insentif kegiatan R&D oleh swasta;
Pasar tenaga kerja: •Penyempurnaan UU ketenagakerjaan; •Peningkatan penyerapan tenaga kerja sektor formal; •Implementasi sistem jaminan sosial bagi pekerja;
Pasar modal dan perbankan: •Mobilisasi dana masyarakat: tabungan haji, surplus dana masyarakat. •Monetisasi asset negara; •Peningkatan basis pajak.
Kerangka kelembagaan
SUPRASTRUKTUR
Pasar barang:
Kebijakan afirmatif:
•Sistem distribusi yang efisien. •Perlindungan wajar bagi produsen domestik dari persaingan tidak adil dengan produsen luar negeri;
•Active industrial policy: mendorong kegiatan usaha potensial dan strategis; •Penguatan struktur pelaku usaha; •Persebaran spasial kegiatan ekonomi
Struktur pasar
71
Logistic cost in comparison
Port efficiency Container handling cost per 40 feet (US$) L. Chabang, Thailand Chittagong, Bangladesh
Ship movement per hour (unit)
43
L. Chabang, Thailand
60
Chittagong, Bangladesh
Kwangyang, Korea
69
Kwangyang, Korea
Port Klang, Malaysia
70
Port Klang, Malaysia
Manila, Philippines
85
Minila, Philippines
Keohsiung,Taiwan
88
Keohsiung, Taiwan
T. Priok, Indonesia
130
T. Priok, Indonesia
75 10 80 50 20 75 35
Source: USAID-SENADA, 2008.
Tanjung Priok is the biggest seaport in Indonesia, but the productivity is the lowest among neighbouring countris
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