PROSPEK PENGEMBANGAN SEKTOR INDUSTRI Faisal Basri 28 Februari 2011
Indonesia’s post-crisis journey 8 6
4
4.1 4.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 5.8 6.9
7.2
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
2 0 -2 -4
-6 -8
Gus Dur: “Erratic/shaky”
-10
-12
Megawati: Consolidation and acceleration
-14 -16 -18 -20
Crisis peak
SBY: Throws away Momentum, and then made correction Source: BPS.
GDP growth of selected Asian countries 13.0
Singapore
18.8 9.0
Taiwan
12.5 9.5
China
10.3
Thailand
7.5
Malaysia
7.4
9.1
2010 (projection)
8.9
Philippines
6.2
Korea
6.1
7.9
Q2-2010 (actual)
7.2 6.5 6.5
Vietnam
6.0 6.2
Indonesia 0.0
2.0
4.0
Source: Asian Development Bank, September 2010
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
Low quality — Sectoral growth rate (2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %) 2008
2009
Q3-10
Q4-10
3.4
2.2
3.5
3.4
3.8
2.1
4.6
Agriculture
4.8
4.1
2.9
3.0
3.1
1.8
3.8
Mining & Quarrying
0.5
4.4
3.5
3.1
3.8
2.8
4.2
Manufacturing
3.7
2.1
4.5
3.7
4.3
4.1
5.3
8.7
7.1
8.5
8.3
8.8
8.1
9.3
10.9
13.8
5.3
8.2
4.8
3.2
4.3
Construction
7.3
7.1
7.0
7.1
7.2
6.4
6.7
Trade, Hotel & Rest.
7.2
1.1
8.7
9.4
9.6
8.8
8.4
Transport & Comm.
16.7
15.5
13.5
11.9
12.9
13.3
15.5
Finance
8.2
5.0
5.7
5.3
6.1
6.3
6.3
Services
6.4
6.4
6.0
4.6
5.3
6.4
7.5
6.1
4.5
6.1
5.7
6.2
5.8
6.9
Tradable
Non-Tradable Electricity, Gas & Water
GDP Source: BPS.
2010 Q1-10 Q2-10
Low quality growth, 2000-2010 (%) 10
Non-tradable
8 6 GDP
4 Tradable
2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: BPS.
Projections of GDP by sector Sector * 1. Agriculture 2. Mining 3. Manufacturing 4. Utilities 5. Construction 6. Trade and hospitality 7. Transport & communication 8. Finance 9. Services GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT *Projection Sources: BPS and own projection.
2008
2009
2010
2011*
4.8 0.5
4.0 4.4
2.9 3.5
3.7 2.3
3.7 10.9 7.3
2.2 14.3 7.1
4.5 5.3 7.0
4.7 11.0 7.5
7.2
1.3
8.7
7.1
16.7
15.5
13.4
14.5
8.2 6.4 6.1
5.1 6.4 4.6
5.6 6.0 6.1
7.5 6.6 6.6
Growth of manufacturing industries % change, year-on-year, 2010 2009 2010 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10
Food, beverages and tobacco
11.2
2.7
0.8
1.9
4.0
4.4
Textiles, leather and footwear
0.6
1.7
0.1
-0.1
0.2
6.8
-1.4 -3.5
-3.0
-3.2
-2.9
-5.4
Wood and forestry products Paper and printing
6.3
1.6
-1.1
-0.4
2.5
5.1
Fertilizers, chemicals and ruber products
1.6
4.7
3.9
3.1
5.4
5.2
Cement and non-metal quarrying
-0.5
2.2
7.5
2.6
-0.4
-1.5
Basic metals and steel
-4.3
2.6
-0.2
-0.0
Vehicles, machinery and equipments
-2.9 10.4 10.4 12.3
-0.3 10.7 8.9
9.5
NON-OIL AND GAS MFG INDUSTRIES
2.6
5.1
4.1
4.9
4.9
6.0
TOTAL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
2.2
4.5
3.7
4.4
4.3
5.3
Source: BPS.
Structure of manufacturing industry, % Sub-sector
2001
2008
Food, beverages and tobacco
24.7
27.2
Textiles, leather and footwear
12.4
12.4
Wood and forestry products
8.8
4.8
Paper and printing
6.6
6.6
14.5
19.4
Cement and non-metal quarrying
5.0
5.5
Basic metals and steel
7.1
5.9
20.9
18.1
Fertilizers, chemicals and ruber products
Vehicles, machinery and equipments Source: BPS.
Industri manufaktur merana 15
Industri non-migas 10
Industri PDB
5
0
-5
-10
Sumber: diolah dari data BPS.
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
-15
Growth of manufacturing industries Medium and large industries, y-o-y, %. 8 7 6 5
4 3 2
trendline
1
Source: BPS.
Q3-10
Q2-10
Q1-10
Q4-09
Q3-09
Q2-09
Q1-09
Q4-08
Q3-08
Q2-08
Q1-08
Q4-07
Q3-07
Q2-07
Q1-07
0
Growth of manufacturing industries Medium and large industries, q-to-q. 6
5 4 3 2 1
trendline
0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10
-1 -2 -3 -4 Source: BPS.
Indonesia: expenditure groups 1999
2009 The Indonesian Middle Class (Millions)
The Indonesian Middle Class (Millions) Affluent(>=20)
0.01
0.09
Affluent(>=20)
0.05
0.32
Upper Middle(10 to 20)
0.04
0.36
Upper Middle(10 to 20)
0.23
2.0
1.14
Mid Middle(4 to 10)
Lower Middle(2 to 4)
Poor(<=2)
120.6
130
49.8
100
50 Rural
Source: ADB based on BPS.
0
50 70 Urban
Poor(<=2)
18.3
25.5
Lower Middle(2 to 4)
24.4
13.1
3.98
Mid Middle(4 to 10)
6.36
43.3
89.1
100
47.1
50
0 Rural
50 Urban
100
Pergeseran pola konsumsi masyarakat (Konsumsi rerata perkapita sebulan menurut kelompok pengeluaran, %) Kelompok Barang Makanan: - Padi-padian, Umbi-umbian - Ikan, daging, telur dan susu - Sayur-sayuran, kacang-kacangan, buah-buahan - Minyak dan lemak - Bahan minuman - Konsumsi lainnya - Makanan jadi - Tembakau dan sirih Bukan makanan: - Perumahan dan fasilitas rumahtangga - Barang dan jasa - Pakaian, alas kaki dan tutup kepala - Barang-barang tahan lama - Pajak dan asuransi - Keperluan pesta dan upacara
1999 62.9 17.6 10.8 10.6 3.0 3.1 3.0 9.6 5.3
2004 54.6 10.2 11.1 8.7 2.3 2.5 2.6 10.4 6.9
2009 50.6 9.4 9.5 7.6 2.0 2.0 2.4 12.6 5.3
37.1 15.9 10.7 5.2 2.9 0.9 1.5
45.4 20.7 13.5 5.1 4.2 0.8 1.2
49.4 19.9 17.5 3.3 5.9 1.4 1.4
Sumber: Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional , Modul Konsumsi 1999, 2002 dan 2005 (2003, 2004 dan 2006 hanya mencakup panel 10.000 rumahtangga, sedangkan 2007, 2008 dan 2009 mencakup panel 68.800 rumah tangga)
Where is this salty peanut made?
Where is the production of “ting-ting” candy?
How about these sunflower seeds?
You can probably guess this one… “Masih dalam proses pendaftaran ML (makanan luar) Badan POM RI”
Canned drink from Singapore
Canned druit from South Africa
Kurang sentuhan teknologi
Balance of payments (US$ million) 2008
2009
2010
Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
126
10,192
6,294
2,093
1,603
1,374
1,224
22,916
30,147
31,093
7,045
6,961
7,807
9,279
1. Exports, f.o .b.
139, 606
119,646
158,201
35,084
37,439
39,708
45,970
2. Imports, f.o.b.
-116,690
-89,499 -127,108
-28,039
-30,478
-31,901
-36,690
I. CURRENT ACCOUNT A. Goods, net (Trade Balance)
B. Services, net
-12,998
-9,675
-9,491
-2,129
-2,307
-2,286
-2,770
C. Income, net
-15,155
-15,140
-20,258
-3,993
-4,262
-5,385
-6,619
5,364
4,861
4,950
1,169
1,210
1,238
1,334
-1,832
5,002
26,218
5,013
4,661
6,669
9,874
294
96
32
18
0
0
14
B. Financial Account
-2,126
4,906
26,186
4,995
4,661
6,669
9,861
1. Direct investment
3,419
2,628
9,836
2,484
2,298
1,615
3,439
2. Portfolio investment
1,764
10,336
15,205
6,159
1,089
5,994
1,964
3. Other investment
-7,309
-8,058
1,145
-3,648
1,274
-939
4,458
-238
-2,688
-2,227
-485
-834
-1,089
191
1,945
-12,506
-30,285
-6,621
-5,421
-6,955
-11,289
D. Current Transfers, net II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT A. Capital Account
III. ERRORS & OMISSIONS IV. RESERVES & RELATED ITEMS Source: Bank Indonesia.
Top host economies for FDI in 2010-2012
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2010, p. 25.
Japanese FDI: upward evaluation of Indonesia Promising countries for overseas business operation over the medium term (next 3 years or so)
Rank
1997
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1st
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
2nd
USA
Thiland
Thailand
Thailand
India
India
India
India
India
India
3rd
Indonesia
USA
USA
India
Thailand
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
4th
Thailand
Indonesia
Vietnam
Vietnam
Viet nam
Thailand
Thailand
Russia
Thailand
Thailand
5th
India
Vietnam
India
USA
USA
USA
Russia
Thailand
Russia
Brazil
6th
Vetnam
India
Indonesia
Russia
Russia
Russia
USA
Brazil
Brazil
Indonesia
7th
Philippines
Korea
Korea
Indonesia
Korea
Brazil
Brazil
USA
USA
Russia
8th
Malaysia
Taiwan
Taiwan
Korea
Indonesia
Korea
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
USA
9th
Brazil
Malaysia
Malaysia
Taiwan
Brazil
Indonesia
Korea
Korea
Korea
Korea
10th
Taiwan
Brazil
Russia
Malaysia
Taiwan
Taiwan
Taiwan
Taiwan
Malaysia
Malaysia
Source: JBIC.
Trade balance Indonesia-China (non-oil & gas) US$ million
Exports Imports Trade Balance % of Total Exports Imports Rank Exports Imports Source: BPS
2008
2009
2010
7,787 14,948 -7,161
8,920 13,491 -4,591
14,073 19,687 -5,614
7.2 15.2
9.1 17.3
10.8 18.2
4 1
3 1
2 1
Direction of non-oil exports (f.o.b.,%) 2008
2009
2010
Asean Singapore Malaysia Thailand Others
21.8 9.4 5.5 3.0 3.9
21.0 8.1 5.8 2.7 4.4
20.8 7.4 6.0 3.1 4.3
European Union Germany France United Kingdom Other
14.2 2.3 0.9 1.4 9.6
13.9 2.4 0.9 1.5 9.2
13.2 2.3 0.9 1.3 8.7
Other Major Countries China Japan United States Australia Korea Taiwan
40.6 7.2 12.8 11.6 2.0 4.3 2.7
42.2 9.1 12.3 10.7 1.8 5.3 3.0
43.5 10.8 12.7 10.3 1.8 5.3 2.5
Others
36.9
36.5
35.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
Total Source: BPS.
12-Top exporters Merchandise exports, 2009, US$ billion 300
China (9.6) Germany (9.0) United States (8.5) Japan (4.7) Netherlands (4.0) France (3.8) Italy (3.2) Belgium (3.0) Korea (2.9) United Kingdom (2.8) Hongkong (2.6) Canada (2.5) Source : WTO.
600
900
1200
( ) World share, %
Middle-leading exporters Merchandise exports, 2009, US$ billion 0 Russian Federation (2.4) Singapore (2.2) Mexico (1.8) Spain (1.7) Taiwan (1.6) Saudi Arabia (1.5) UAE (1.4) Switzerland (1.4) Malaysia (1.3) India (1.2) Australia (1.2) Brazil (1.2) Thailand (1.2) Austria (1.1) Poland (1.1) Sweden (1.0) Norway (1.0) Indonesia (1.0) Source : WTO.
100
200
300
Indonesia menduduki urutan ke-30. Namun, jika di luar perdagangan intra-EU(27), posisi Indonesia naik ke urutan 21.
400
Leading exporter/importers of nat. resources Excluding intra-EU trade, 2008, US$ billion, ( ) World share, % 50 Russia (10.5) Saudi Arabia (8.7) Canada (5.5) EU (27) (5.4) United States (4.4) Norway (4.0) Australia (3.5) UAE (3.4) Iran (2.9) Kuwait (2.6) Venezuela (2.5) Algeria (2.4) Nigeria (2.3) Singapore (2.1) Angola (2.1) Source : WTO.
100
150
200
250
300
Leading exporters
350
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 EU (27) (22.9) United States (17.4) Japan (10.5) China (9.9) Korea (5.4) India (4.0) Singapore (2.8) Taiwan (2.5) Canada (2.0) Turkey (1.5) Thailand (1.5) Brazil (1.3) Mexico (1.2) Indonesia (1.1) Australia (1.0)
Leading importers
Trade balance of oil and oil products 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Crude Oil Exports
5,228
5,621
6,241
8,146
8,169
9,226
12,419
7,820
10,395
Imports
3,217
3,928
5,831
6,797
7,853
9,057
10,062
7,362
8,478
(X - M)
2,011
1,694
410
1,349
316
169
2,357
458
1,524
Exports
1,308
1,548
1,654
1,932
2,844
2,879
3,547
2,262
3,951
Imports
3,309
3,583
5,892
10,646
11,080
12,787
20,231
11,129
18,021
(X - M)
-2,001
-2,035
-4,238
-8,714
-8,236
-9,908
-16,684
-8,876
-13,040
Exports
6,535
7,169
7,896
10,078
11,013
12,105
15,966
10,082
14,346
Imports
6,526
7,510
11,724
17,443
18,933
21,844
30,293
18,491
26,466
(X - M)
10
-342
-3,828
-7,365
-7,920
-9,739
-14,327
-8,409
-12,120
Oil Products
Total
Source: BPS.
Trade balance of oil and gas US$ million 15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
-15000
2002
2003
2004
2005
Oil & oil products
•January-October. Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
2006
Gas
2007
2008
Oil & gas
2009
2010
Ekspor Indonesia sebagian besar berupa bahan mentah atau barang setengah jadi: Nilai ekspor empat komoditas tambang (bijih tembaga, batubara, bijih nikel dan bauksit) mencapai 16.7%
dari total (2009). Ekspor minyak sawit dan karet alam hampir 13% dari total ekspor (2009) Share ekspor seluruh komoditas mendekati 30% (2009). Indonesia adalah eksportir CPO dan batubara terbesar di dunia, dan eksportir penting berbagai bahan
mentah tambang. Exports (US$ million, except otherwise indicated) 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
62,124.0
56,320.9
57,158.8
61,058.2
71,584.6
85,660.0 100,798.6 114,100.9 137,020.4 116,510.0
47,757.0
43,684.6
45,046.1
47,406.6
55,939.3
66,428.5
79,589.1
92,012.3 107,894.1
97,491.7
2,951.8
3,389.9
3,589.4
3,913.2
4,676.8
7,828.7
11,003.8
11,607.8
14,567.2
19,419.9
% to total exports
4.8
6.0
6.3
6.4
6.5
9.1
10.9
10.2
10.6
16.7
% to non-oil & gas exports
6.2
7.8
8.0
8.3
8.4
11.8
13.8
12.6
13.5
19.9
Coal
1,276.0
1,617.6
1,762.3
1,980.1
2,748.8
4,354.1
6,082.2
6,681.4
10,482.1
13,791.3
Copper
1,621.0
1,704.3
1,755.5
1,854.7
1,802.4
3,311.0
4,646.1
4,212.7
3,344.6
5,101.3
Nickel
42.2
55.5
50.8
59.5
108.4
140.0
217.4
608.4
524.3
277.6
Bauksit
12.6
12.5
20.8
18.9
17.2
23.6
58.1
105.4
216.3
249.7
2,215.7
2,013.8
3,387.0
4,213.9
6,125.7
6,928.0
9,756.4
13,737.0
19,857.8
14,703.4
% to total exports
3.6
3.6
5.9
6.9
8.6
8.1
9.7
12.0
14.5
12.6
% to non-oil & gas exports
4.6
4.6
7.5
8.9
11.0
10.4
12.3
14.9
18.4
15.1
1,326.4
1,227.2
2,348.6
2,719.3
3,944.5
4,344.0
5,434.1
8,866.4
13,799.5
11,459.4
889.3
786.6
1,038.4
1,494.6
2,181.3
2,584.0
4,322.3
4,870.5
6,058.2
3,244.0 31
Exports - total Non -oil & gas 4 mine commodities
2 agric. commodities
Palm & palm kernel oil Natural rubber
2006
2007
2008
2009
Resource base exports makin dominan 100%
Others
90%
Natural rubber Palm & palm kernel oil Bauksit
80%
70% 60% 50%
40%
Nickel
30% 20%
Copper
10%
Coal 2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0%
Commodities potential for further processing (based on exports volume) A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 B1a B1b B3 B4a B4b B4c B5 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8
Coffee Cocoa bean Areca nut Coconut Castor oil seeds Seaweed Cashew nut Cinamon Palm oil Palm kernel oil Wood pulp Natural rubber - SIR Natural rubber - smoked sheet Natural rubber - latex Copra oil Coal (exc. Briquettes) LNG Crude oil Alluminium ore Nickel ore Iron ore Copper ore Kaolin
Unit Ribu ton Ribu ton Ribu ton Ribu ton Ribu ton Ribu ton Ribu ton Ribu ton Ribu ton Ribu ton Ribu ton Ribu ton Ribu ton Ribu ton Ribu ton Juta ton Juta ton Juta ton Juta ton Juta ton Juta ton Juta ton Ribu ton
2005 445.9 367.4 128.8 111.3 0.0 69.2 69.4 37.2 10,376.2 1,043.2 2,459.4 1,674.7 334.1 4.0 752.1 129.0 23.3 18.5 2.5 3.7 0.8 2.4 67.9
2006 414.1 490.8 151.6 175.5 2.9 95.6 63.4 40.5 12,100.9 1,274.0 2,696.0 1,948.0 325.4 8.3 520.0 183.9 22.7 15.7 7.3 4.4 2.2 2.3 33.3
2007 321.4 379.8 170.3 138.2 22.4 94.1 83.6 50.7 11,875.4 1,335.3 2,321.6 2,097.1 275.5 7.6 739.9 195.8 21.0 18.2 11.7 9.0 5.2 1.7 310.0
2008 468.7 380.5 181.3 140.9 110.4 99.9 67.0 42.6 14,290.7 1,356.9 2,615.0 2,118.2 137.8 8.5 649.4 201.0 20.7 18.2 16.8 10.6 6.5 1.6 376.8
2009 510.9 439.3 195.1 145.7 136.2 94.0 68.3 38.4 16,829.2 1,703.3 2,193.7 1,872.8 77.0 9.1 571.2 234.1 19.0 18.0 14.7 10.4 5.7 2.3 379.9
Exports value of commodities potential, (US$ mn) A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 B1a B1b B3 B4a B4b B4c B5 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8
Coffee Cocoa bean Areca nut Coconut Castor oil seeds Seaweed Cashew nut Cinamon Palm oil Palm kernel oil Wood pulp Natural rubber - SIR Natural rubber - smoked sheet Natural rubber - latex Copra oil Coal (exc. Briquettes) LNG Crude oil Alluminium ore Nickel ore Iron ore Copper ore Kaolin
2005 504.4 467.8 128.8 60.0 0.0 35.6 69.0 20.3 3,756.3 587.7 886.0 2,133.4 430.1 5.0 413.8 4,354.1 8,599.3 6,958.0 23.6 140.0 15.8 3,311.0 5.5
2006 588.5 619.0 128.8 68.8 0.0 49.6 56.6 25.5 4,817.6 616.5 1,054.1 3,690.8 609.0 12.9 270.7 6,082.2 9,993.1 7,031.8 58.1 217.4 43.2 4,646.1 3.6
2007 636.4 622.6 128.8 76.8 7.7 57.5 82.8 35.7 7,868.6 997.8 973.0 4,243.3 560.4 10.5 570.4 6,681.4 9,773.1 9,226.0 105.4 608.4 102.1 4,212.7 8.1
2008 991.5 854.6 128.8 89.2 9.1 110.2 77.8 35.8 12,375.6 1,424.0 1,421.9 5,595.2 365.5 14.7 769.1 10,482.1 12,993.5 12,418.7 216.3 524.3 140.2 3,344.6 9.9
2009 824.0 1,087.5 128.8 69.1 9.4 87.8 82.6 30.5 10,367.6 1,091.8 843.7 3,050.4 126.4 10.2 387.4 13,791.3 7,500.1 7,820.3 249.7 277.6 108.1 5,101.3 9.2
TOTAL
32,905.4
40,683.8
47,589.6
64,392.4
53,054.7
38.4
40.4
41.7
47.0
45.5
% to total exports value
Beberapa produk impor dapat diolah dari komoditas yg selama ini diekspor dan / atau dikembangkan kinerja pengolahannya 2-DIGIT HS CODE CLASSIFICATION
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
2000
2001
2002
2003
6,075.6
5,526.7
6,563.3
7,667.9 11,802.8 17,518.1 19,041.3 22,017.8 30,682.3 19,090.4
12 OIL SEEDS/MISC. GRAINS/MED. PLANTS/STRAW
4,818.7 1,351.9 2,585.2 1,374.2 1,890.5 1,205.4 723.3 982.6 965.6 867.2 487.4 157.7 1,064.8 535.8 491.5 370.1 185.1 490.9 351.3 310.4 467.1 315.3 259.5 335.8
4,709.4 1,385.4 2,274.2 1,066.7 1,867.5 1,106.2 622.7 664.8 1,279.9 947.9 585.2 77.5 713.7 537.2 440.6 339.2 200.6 341.0 308.6 307.8 406.4 276.8 326.7 290.3
4,671.0 1,545.3 2,081.3 1,189.6 1,662.9 1,087.5 686.1 1,098.7 904.7 550.9 508.6 128.2 629.3 471.1 491.8 342.5 246.5 274.6 296.5 336.1 407.3 242.4 246.4 356.1
Grand Total
33,514.8 30,962.1 31,288.9 32,550.7 46,524.5 57,700.9 61,065.5 74,473.4 129,244.1 96,829.2
27 MINERAL FUELS & OILS 84 MACHINERY & MECHANICAL APPLIANCES, COMPUTERS 85 ELECT. MECH. & EQUIP. & PARTS, TELEC. EQUIP. 29 ORGANIC CHEMICALS 72 IRON & STEEL 87 VEHICLES OTHER THAN ROLLING STOCK 39 PLASTICS & ARTICLES THEREOF 73 ARTICLES OF IRON OR STEEL 10 CEREALS 52 COTTON, INC. YARNS & WOVEN
89 SHIPS, BOATS, & FLOATING STRUCTURES 23 RESIDUES FROM FOOD INDUSTRIES, ANIMAL FEED 88 AIRCRAFT, SPACECRAFT, & PARTS THEREOF 47 PULP OF WOOD, WASTE & SCRAP OF PAPER 28 INORGANIC CHEM & COMPOUNDS 38 MISCELLANEOUS CHEMICAL PRODUCTS 40 RUBBERS & ARTICLES THEREOF 31 FERTILIZERS 90 OPTICAL PRODUCTS 76 ALUMINUM & ARTICLES THEREOF
48 PAPER & PAPERBOARD, ARTICLES OF PAPER PULP 32 TANNING OR DYEING EXTRACTS 17 SUGARS & SUGAR CONFECTIONERY 04 DAIRY, EGGS, HONEY, & ED. PRODUCTS
4,297.1 1,769.0 2,163.9 1,287.0 1,890.3 1,136.8 688.9 1,044.2 800.5 439.9 610.2 120.2 636.4 465.1 438.3 347.0 230.2 306.1 332.8 329.3 352.4 373.4 277.2 390.7
2004 6,311.0 2,776.4 3,258.3 2,717.4 2,423.1 1,605.9 861.9 1,080.7 843.1 322.0 900.4 299.1 824.8 604.0 592.2 467.5 385.7 456.5 485.0 446.7 476.6 321.2 436.8 468.3
2005 8,076.2 3,329.2 3,244.2 3,344.9 3,061.4 1,748.9 1,482.1 884.4 731.1 328.6 824.8 479.7 785.1 737.3 675.5 610.8 459.3 486.5 565.9 478.2 482.1 654.7 521.2 372.0
2006 7,403.6 3,107.8 3,439.2 2,865.1 2,447.0 1,855.7 1,261.7 1,229.1 782.4 1,501.0 882.7 971.3 852.7 814.7 781.8 698.4 564.3 523.4 674.1 507.3 495.6 640.0 566.2 375.9
2007 9,518.7 4,642.0 3,881.2 4,175.0 2,778.7 2,195.2 1,370.1 1,804.5 953.0 540.0 1,147.5 1,607.3 1,022.5 908.2 848.7 790.7 729.5 643.7 815.1 602.6 574.2 1,116.4 879.4 568.4
2008 18,305.0 14,188.4 5,132.5 8,281.9 6,655.6 3,949.7 3,335.1 2,199.8 1,991.7 1,395.8 1,745.0 2,036.9 1,474.8 1,451.1 1,192.6 1,415.5 2,464.8 1,458.6 1,243.0 973.5 794.3 458.0 874.5 845.8
2009 14,724.0 11,087.8 3,940.4 4,356.6 3,886.6 3,216.1 2,784.1 1,506.2 1,476.1 2,702.0 1,678.8 3,241.5 950.9 1,028.0 1,073.6 1,125.3 844.8 1,313.4 862.3 872.5 698.3 704.6 610.5 826.9
Kinerja Industri Gula dapat ditingkatkan untuk mengurangi ketergantungan pada gula impor dan meningkatkan pendapatan petani. Industri gula sudah lama berkembang, tetapi semakin lama tidak bertambah baik, malah bertambah buruk. Lebih 1/3 kebutuhan gula dipenuhi melalui impor.
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
IMPORTS - US$ MILLIONS 17 SUGARS & CONFECTIONERY
315.3
276.8
242.4
373.4
321.2
654.7
640.0 1,116.4
458.0
704.6
1701 cane or beet sugar
283.1
237.6
196.0
330.4
265.4
589.1
576.9 1,040.2
366.9
574.2
1702 sugars - nesoi
11.5
12.2
12.6
14.0
21.3
28.9
32.6
53.7
60.3
96.3
1703 molasses
11.5
16.8
17.7
8.0
6.7
8.0
7.3
8.1
11.1
18.8
9.2
10.2
16.1
21.0
27.8
28.7
23.2
14.5
19.6
15.3
1,007
1,026
619
945
470
1,010
828
1,887
380
1,293
Refined sugar (packed or not)
427
113
191
244
103
285
118
376
45
3
Sugar for pharmaceutical industry
122
146
161
301
558
702
565
710
595
97
1,557
1,285
971
1,490
1,131
1,996
1,511
2,973
1,020
1,393
1704 sugar confection IMPORTS - 000 TON Cane & beet raw sugar
Total
Selama 15 tahun nyaris tidak terjadi kenaikan rendemen tebu (% ton gula /
tebu); Pertumbuhan produksi sebagian besar karena ekstensifikasi dan hasil tebu / ha
lahan; Efisiensi teknis PG pada umumnya di bawah standar normal… Kinerja mesin
kurang optimal…. OR = 74.4% (sekitar 25% sukrosa yg ada pada tebu hilang
dalam proses pengolahan tebu menjadi gula) Indikator 1 Mill Extraction (ME) Boilinghouse Recovery 2 (BHR) 3 Overall Recovery (OR)
Peningkatan
kinerja
Aktual (%) Kisaran
Standar (%) Normal Optimal
Median
89.23 – 94.58
91.62
95
96.0
74.98 – 85.41
80.80
90
91.0
68.01 – 80.78
74.37
85
87.5
industri
gula
meningkatkan
pendapatan petani naik insentif kenaikan produksi.
rendemen
tebu
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