LISTRIK DAN PEMBANGUNAN Faisal Basri 7 Februari 2013
Penduduk Indonesia mirip Jepang th. 1950 Jepang
Indonesia
5%
66%
15-49 = 55%
29%
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik and http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart?page=1&fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/dailychartjan10 (20101120_WOC951)
Maximizing opportunities: Indonesia’s remaining demographic dividend 90.0
Dependency ratio (%)
80.0
80.0
% of population
70.0
70.0 Working age: 15 to 64 (%)
60.0
60.0
50.0
50.0
40.0
40.0
Children: 14 and below (%)
30.0
30.0
20.0
20.0 Elderly: above 64 (%)
10.0
10.0
0.0
0.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Source: World Bank, “Indonesia economic update: Near-term issues and looking ahead to 2012, “ March 2011.
Dependency ratio: children and elderly to working age (%)
90.0
GDP per capita when demographic bonus end Real GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)
20,000
Indonesia is likely to get old before it gets rich 17,475
16,298 15,000
12,855 11,347 10,000
Assuming 6% growth 3,583
5,000
0
Assuming 10% growth 7,243
1970
1991
1982
2000
2030
2030
Japan
Singapore
Hong Kong
Korea, Rep.
Indonesia
Indonesia
Source: World Bank, presented by Shubham Chaudhuri at Kompas Economic Panel Discussion, June 21, 2012.
The rising population share of middle strata Percent of population
Class Low
Middle
High
Cut-off
2003
2010
< $1.25
21.9%
$1.25 - $2
40.3%
29.3%
$2 - $4
32.1%
38.5%
$4 - $6
3.9%
$6 - $10
1.3%
5.0%
$10 - $20
0.3%
1.3%
> $20
0.1%
62.2%
37.7%
0.1%
14.0%
11.7%
0.2%
43.2%
56.5%
0.2%
Note: Per capita expenditure per day is adjusted to the 2005 purchasing power parity terms. Source: World Bank, March 2011, based on Susenas.
Looking ahead within Indonesia To a growing middle class…
Source: World Bank, June 2012
Top-18 economies PPP 2009 Rank
Source: PWC, The world in 2050. New York, 2011.
PPP 2050 Rank
The future of archipelago economy Indonesia Today Economy in the world Member of the consuming class Population in the cities … … producing Number of skilled workers Market opportunity
Source: McKinsey< The archiipelago economy: Unleashing Indonesia’ sPotential, 2012.
Indonesia in 2030
16th-largest
7th largest
45 million 53% 74% GDP 55 million $0.5 trillion
135 million 71% 86% GDP 113 million $1.8 trillion
Real GDP/capita: actual vs potential
Source: based on BPS data.
Wiggle-room index
Sources: The Economiest, 27 January 2012. http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/01/emerging-economies.
BRICS and Indonesia in comparison China India Brazil Russia Indonesia S. Africa Population (million) Life expectancy at birth, total (years) Surface are (million sq. km) GDP (current US$)
1,344
1,225
195
142
240
50
73.3
65.1
73.1
68.8
68.9
52.1
9.6
3.3
8.5
17.1
1.9
1.2
1,684 2,143
1,488
708
304
5,930
Industry, value added (% of GDP)
46.7
27.1
28.1
36.7
46.9
30.8
Gross capital formation (% of GDP)
48.2
35.1
20.2
22.7
32.4
19.3
Merchandise trade (% of GDP)
50.1
33.8
18.4
43.6
41.4
48.2
Market cap. of listed companies (% of GDP)
80.3
95.9
72.1
67.5
50.9
278.5
571 2,206
6,133
590
4,532
Electric power consumption (kWh per capita)
2,631
Internet users (per 100 people)
34.4
7.5
40.7
43.3
10.9
18.1
Military expenditure (% of GDP)
2.0
2.7
1.6
3.9
0.7
1.3
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.
Oil prices Crude Oil Light Sweet Pit (Nymex) January 2013 2:33 p.m EDT
96.67 =
Adjusted by producerprice index = US$118 Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134 Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145 Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150 • Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Trade balance of oil and oil products 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Crude Oil Exports
5,621
6,241
8,146
8,169
9,226
12,419
7,820
10,403
13,829
12,293
Imports
-3,928
-5,831
-6,797
-7,853
-9,057
-10,062
-7,362
-8,531
-11,154
-10,803
(X - M)
1,694
410
1,349
316
169
2,357
458
1,872
2,675
1,490
Exports
1,548
1,654
1,932
2,844
2,879
3,547
2,262
3,967
4,777
4,159
Imports
-3,583
-5,892
-10,646
-11,080
-12,787
-20,231
-11,129
-18,018
-28,134
-28,680
(X - M)
-2,035
-4,238
-8,714
-8,236
-9,908
-16,684
-8,876
-14,051
-23,357
-24,521
Exports
7,169
7,896
10,078
11,013
12,105
15,966
10,082
14,370
18,606
16,452
Imports
-7,510
-11,724
-17,443
-18,933
-21,844
-30,293
-18,491
-26,549
-39,288
-39,483
(X - M)
342
-3,828
-7,365
-7,920
-9,739
-14,327
-8,409
-12,179
-20,682
-23,031
Oil Products
Total
Source: BPS.
Trade balance of oil and gas US$ million 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000
0 -5000 -10000 -15000
2002
2003
2004
2005
Oil & oil products Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
2006
2007
2008
Gas
2009
2010
2011
Oil & gas
2012
Impor 13 gol. barang utama (CIF, juta US$) (Total impor migas US$42,565 atau 22.2% dari total impor) No Golongan barang 2011 2012 1 Hasil minyak (Bahan Bakar Minyak)
28,134
28,680
2 Mesin dan peralatan mekanik
24,729
28,415
3 Mesin dan peralatan listrik
18,245
18,902
4 Minyak mentah
11,154
10,803
5 Besi dan baja
8,580
10,140
6 Kendaraan bermotor dan bagiannya
7,603
9,753
7 Plastik dan barang dari plastik
6,688
6,991
8 Bahan kimia organik
6,635
6,883
9 Barang dari besi dan baja
3,573
4,889
10 Kapal terbang dan bagiannya
3,421
4,495
11 Serealia
4,753
3,714
12 Gas
1,412
3,082
13 Sisa industri makanan
2,219
2,798
Source: BPS.
Belanja Pemerintah pusat RAPBN 2013 (triliun rupiqah) 300 250 200 150 100 50
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Belanja pegawai
Belanja Barang
Belanja modal
Bunga utang
Subsidi energi
Bantuan sosial
Sources: Kementerian Keuangan
2013
Alokasi subsidi pada RAPBN 2003 Jenis subsidi
Nilai (Rp tr.)
Persen
193.8
61.33
Listrik
80.9
25.60
Pangan
17.2
5.44
Pupuk
15.9
5.03
Benih
0.1
0.04
PSO
2.0
0.63
Kredit program
1.2
0.38
Pajak
4.8
1.52
Total
316.1
100.00
BBM
Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
Source: Bank Indonesia Dec-21
6-Aug
26-Mar
11-Nov
27-Jun
11-Feb
30-Sep
18-May
4-Jan
Aug-13
Mar-31
10-Nov
24-Jun
8-Feb
11-Sep
30-Apr
14-Dec
26-Jul
13-Mar
25-Oct
15-Jun
27-Jan
9-Sep
8-Apr
Heart beat has been appreciating ... (Rupiah per US$)
Economic temperature lower … Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, % Target BI: 4.5% + 1%
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Source: BPS.
18.4
14.6
7.0 4.5
4.6
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Indonesia’s post-crisis journey 4.1
6
6.3 6.4 6.2 6.1
8
6.8
7.2
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
Gus Dur: “Erratic/shaky”
-8 -10
Megawati: Consolidation and acceleration
-12 -14 -16
SBY: Throws away Momentum, and then made correction
-18 -20
Crisis peak Source: BPS.
GDP growth & structure, and employment Sector
2009 2010
2011
2012 2011 2012 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Share Worker
1. Agriculture
4.0
3.0
3.3
4.0
4.3
3.7
4.8
2.0 14.4
35.9
2. Mining
4.5
3.6
1.4
1.5
2.8
3.1
-0.1
0.5 11.8
1.3
3. Manufacturing
2.2
4.7
6.1
5.7
5.7
5.4
6.4
6.2 23.9
13.3
14.3
5.3
4.4
6.4
6.2
6.2
5.6
7.2
0.8
0.2
5. Construction
7.1
7.0
6.7
7.5
7.4
7.4
8.0
7.8 10.4
5.8
6. Trade & hospitality
1.3
8.7
9.2
8.1
8.3
8.9
6.9
7.8 13.9
21.3
7. Transport & Comm.
15.8
13.4
10.7
10.0
10.3
10.1
10.5
9.6
6.7
4.6
8. Finance
5.2
5.7
6.9
7.2
6.3
7.0
7.4
7.7
7.3
2.4
9. Other Services
6.4
6.0
6.7
5.2
5.5
5.7
4.4
5.3 10.8
15.2
GDP/Total
4.6
6.2
6.5
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.2
6.1 100.0 100.0
4. Utilities
Sources: BPS.
Growth of manufacturing industries % change, year-on-year, 2009-2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12
Food, beverages and tobacco
11.2 2.7 9.2 7.7 8.2 6.0 10.3 6.7
Textiles, leather and footwear
0.6 1.7 7.5 4.2 1.4 4.3 5.2 5.8
Wood and forestry products
-1.4 -3.5 0.4 -2.8 -0.9 -7.9 -3.6 1.5
Paper and printing
6.3 1.6 1.5 -5.3 0.5 -7.4 -6.9 -6.5
Fertilizers, chemicals&ruber products
1.6 4.7 4.0 10.2 9.2 2.2 14.3 15.2
Cement and non-metal quarrying
-0.5 2.2 7.2 7.8 6.1 7.7 10.8 5.3
Basic metals and steel
-4.3 2.6 13.1 6.4 5.6 1.9 9.7 8.6
Vehicles, machinery and equipments
-2.9 10.4 7.0 6.9 6.2 11.7 4.3 6.9
NON-OIL & GAS MFG INDUSTRIES
2.6 5.1 6.8 6.4 6.1 6.0 6.9 7.0
TOTAL MFG INDUSTRIES
2.2 4.5 6.2 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.9 6.2
GDP Source: BPS.
4.6 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.1
Pilar daya saing
Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013.
Peran pemerintah makin loyo
Source: IMF, Indonesia: selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 12/278, September 2012.
Terima Kasih Email:
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