MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

Asia Stock Index & Global Market Kamis 03 Desember 2015

Daily Bulletin Page 1 of 7

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK • Bursa saham Jepang merosot dari area resistance 20000 dengan volume perdagangan yang kecil pada hari Rabu, tekanan indeks Nikkei oleh aksi investor yang cenderung menghindari saham-saham cyclical sebelum big event pekan ini dimana akan diumumkan hasil keputusan sidang ECB serta rilis data pekerjaan AS. Indeks Nikkei turun 0.4% di level 19938.13. Indeks futures Nikkei (SSIcm1) masih terkonsolidasi dibawah kisaran resistance psikologis 20000, dengan area support masih bertahan pada kisaran 19500-19600. • Bursa Korea Selatan lanjutkan penurunan sesi sebelumnya dengan investor yang cenderung defensive menyusul data ekspornya yang melemah dan aksi jual investor asing yang besar. Indeks KOSPI (KS200) menguat 0.8% di level 246.60. Fluktuasi indeks futures KOSPI (KSc1) masih tertahan dalam kisaran 242250! • Bursa China berhasil menguat dan mencatatkan persantase penguatan harian dalam kurun waktu sebulan pada hari Rabu. Penguatan indeks Shanghai didorong oleh aksi switching investor dari sahamsaham small caps ke saham-saham blue chips serta spekulasi tambahan stimulus dari pemerintah yang berdampak pada sektor properti. Dengan begitu, indeks Komposit Shanghai menguat 2.3% di level 3536.91. • Bursa saham Hong Kong relatif ikuti pergerakan indeks Shanghai yang pada penutupan perdagangan Rabu berhasil menguat 0.4% di level 22479.69. Penguatan bursa Hong Kong mayoritas didorong oleh sektor-sektor finansial dan properti. Fluktuasi indeks futures Hang Seng masih bertahan di atas zona 22000 support pada reaction low di level 21856 masih kuat terjaga. • AS/Global Market – Dolar menguat pada hari Rabu dan bursa melemah di Wall Street, setelah Ketua Fed Janet Yellen memberikan sinyal kesiapannya untuk menaikkan suku bunga dan data AS mengindikasikan solidnya pasar tenaga kerja. Yellen mengatakan dia "berharap" bahwa kenaikan suku bunga AS akan dilihat sebagai bukti pemulihan ekonomi dari resesi, meskipun ia belum memberikan jaminan kepastian apakah kenaikan suku bunga akan terjadi pada pertemuan kebijakan terakhir Fed tahun ini pada 15-16 Desember. Yellen selanjut akan memberikan testimoninya di depan Joint Economic Committee mengenai prospek ekonomi nanti malam. ADP National Employment Report menunjukkan terjadi penambahan pekerjaan sektor swasta sebanyak 217.000 bulan lalu sementara produktifitas diluar sektor pertanian juga menunjukkan peningkatan lebih tajam dari perkiraan di kuartal ketiga. Menguatnya dolar telah menekan komoditas, dengan minyak terkoreksi menyusul produsen minyak terbesar dunia tidak memberikan sinyal akan pangkas produksi minyaknya pada sidangnya pekan ini. Harga emas juga melemah kemarin. Pasar juga akan mencermati sidang ECB sore nanti yang diperkirakan akan melanjutkan program pelonggaran moneternya. Dow Jones kembali terkoreksi pasca gagal bertahan di atas area 17800. Area support jangka pendek berada di sekitar 17650 – 17450.

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 03 Desember 2015

Asia Stock Index Page 2 of 7

DATE

WIB

CTY

MON/30-Nov

04.00 06.00 06.00 06.00 06.30 06.50 06.50 06.50 06.50 07.30 07.30 07.30 07.30 07.30 12.00 12.00 15.30 15.30 21.45 22.00 22.00 22.30 05.30 06.00 06.00 06.50 07.00 07.00 07.00 07.30 07.30 07.30 07.30 08.00 08.00 08.20 08.35 08.45 10.30 10.30 21.45 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.30 22.30 00.45 06.00 06.30 07.30 07.30

KR KR KR KR AU JP JP JP JP AU AU AU AU AU JP JP HK HK US US US US AU KR KR JP KR KR KR AU AU AU AU CN CN KR JP CN AU AU US US US US US US US US US KR AU AU AU

TUE/01-Dec

WED/02-Dec

INDICATORS BoK Manufacturing BSI Industrial Output YY Service Sector Output Growth Industrial Output Growth TD-MI Inflation Gauge Industrial Output Prelim IP Forecast 1 Mth Ahead IP Forecast 2 Mth Ahead Retail Sales YY Business Inventories Gross Company Profits Company Profits Pre-Tax Private Sector Credit Housing Credit Construction Orders YY Housing Starts YY Money Supply M3 Retail Sales YY Chicago PMI Pending Homes Index Pending Sales Chg MM Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Idx AIG Manufacturing Index CPI Growth CPI Growth YY Business Capex (MOF) YY Export Growth Prelim Import Growth Prelim Trade Balance Prelim Building Approvals Private House Approvals Current Account Deficit Net Exports Contribution NBS Non-Mfg PMI NBS Manufacturing PMI Nikkei Markit Mfg PMI Nikkei Mfg PMI Caixin Mfg PMI Final RBA Cash Rate RBA Rate Statement Markit Mfg PMI Final Construction Spending MM ISM Manufacturing PMI ISM Mfg Prices Paid ISM Manuf Employment Idx ISM Manuf New Orders Idx Texas Serv Sect Outlook Dallas Fed Services Rev. FOMC Evans Speaks Current Account Balance RBA Gov Stevens Speaks GDP QQ GDP YY

PER

ACTUAL

Dec Oct Oct Oct Nov Oct Oct Oct Oct Q3 Q3 Q3 Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Nov Oct Oct Nov Nov Nov Nov Q3 Nov Nov Nov Oct Oct Q3 Q3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Dec

72 1.5 0.2 -1.4 0.1 1.4 0.2 -0.9 1.8 0.1 1.3 -11.2 0.7 0.6 -25.2 -2.5 10.2 -3.0 48.7 107.7 0.2 -4.9 52.5 -0.1 1.0 11.2 -4.7 -17.6 10.4 3.9 -2.1 18.1 1.5 53.6 49.6 49.1 52.6 48.6 2.00

N/A 1.7 N/A 0.2 N/A 1.9 N/A N/A 0.8 0.1 1.0 N/A 0.6 N/A N/A 2.9 N/A N/A 54.0 N/A 1.0 N/A N/A -0.2 0.9 2.3 -8.3 -12.8 N/A -2.3 N/A 16.50 1.00 N/A 49.8 N/A 52.8 48.3 2.00

IND % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % IND IND % IND IND % % % % % B % % B % IND IND IND IND IND %

72 2.4 1.2 1.9 0.0 1.1 4.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -1.9 -11.3 0.8 0.6 6.7 2.6 10.10 -6.4 56.2 106.8 -2.3 -12.70 50.2 0.0 0.9 5.6 -15.9 -16.6 6.70 2.2 -1.9 19.00 -0.60 53.10 49.8 49.1 52.8 48.3 2.00

Nov Oct Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov

52.8 1.0 48.6 35.5 51.3 48.9 3.6 10.3

N/A 0.5 50.5 40.0 48.4 N/A N/A N/A

IND % IND IND IND IND IND IND

52.6 0.6 50.1 39.0 47.6 52.9 5.6 7.6

Oct

7.19

N/A

B

9.76

Q3 Q3

0.9 2.5

0.7 2.4

% %

0.2 2.0

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia – (021) – 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776

FORECAST

LAST

REV 2.8 1.1 2.2

0.2 -0.5 -12.7

107.5 -1.6

2.3 -2.2 20.5

0.3 1.9



THU/03-Dec

FRI/04-Dec

07.30 07.30 07.30 20.10 20.15 20.30 20.30 20.30 21.45 21.45 22.30 00.25 03.40 04.00 05.30 06.00 06.00 07.00 07.30 07.30 07.30 08.45 09.30 19.30 20.30 20.30 20.30 20.30 21.45 21.45 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 01.10 07.30 08.30 12.00 All Day 20.30 20.30 20.30 20.30 20.30 20.30 20.30 20.30 20.30 20.30

AU AU AU US US US US US US US US US US KR AU KR KR AU AU AU AU CN HK US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US AU JP JP US US US US US US US US US US

GDP Final Consumption GDP Capital Expenditure GDP Chain Price Index FOMC Lockhart Speaks ADP National Employment Fed Chair Yellen Speaks Labor Costs Revised Productivity Revised ISM NY Biz Conditions ISM-New York Index EIA Crude Oil Inventories Fed Chair Yellen Speaks FOMC Williams Speaks FX Reserves AIG Service Index GDP Growth MM Revised GDP Growth YY Revised HIA New Home Sales M/M Trade Balance G&S (A$) Goods/Service Imports Goods/Service Exports Caixin Services PMI Nikkei PMI Challenger Layoffs ECB Press Conference Initial Jobless Claims Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. Continued Jobless Claims Markit Comp Final PMI Markit Svcs PMI Final Fed Chair Yellen Testifies Durable Goods R MM Factory Orders MM Nondef Cap Ex-Air R MM ISM N-Mfg PMI ISM N-Mfg Bus Act ISM N-Mfg Employment Idx ISM N-Mfg New Orders Idx ISM N-MFg Prices Paid Index FOMC Fischer Speaks Retail Sales MM Overtime Pay Consumer Confid. Index OPEC Meetings Non-Farm Payrolls Private Payrolls Manufacturing Payrolls Government Payrolls Unemployment Rate SA Average Earnings MM Average Workweek Hrs Labor Force Partic U6 Underemployment International Trade MM

Q3 Q3 Q3

0.7 -4.0 -0.2

N/A N/A N/A

% % %

0.9 0.4 -0.5

0.8 -0.2

Nov

217.0

190

K

182

196

Q3 Q3 Nov Nov W/E

1.8 2.2 60.7 710.6 1.177

1.1 2.2 N/A N/A -0.471

% % IND IND M

1.4 1.6 65.8 705.3 0.961

Nov Nov Q3 Q3 Oct Oct Oct Oct Nov Nov Nov

368.46 48.2

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -2665 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

B IND % % % M % % IND IND K

369.60 48.9 1.2 2.6 -4.0 -2317 2.0 3.0 52.0 46.6 50.504

W/E W/E W/E Nov Nov

268 N/A 2.187 N/A N/A

K K M IND IND

260 271.00 2.207 56.1 56.5

Oct Oct Oct Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov

N/A 1.4 N/A 58.0 60.2 N/A N/A N/A

% % % IND IND IND IND IND

3.0 -1.0 1.3 59.1 63.0 59.2 62.0 49.1

Oct Oct Nov

0.5 N/A 41.8

% % IND

0.4 1.4 41.5

Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Oct

200 190 -1 N/A 5.0 0.2 34.5 N/A N/A -40.5

K K K K % % H % % B

271 268 0 3 5.0 0.4 34.5 62.4 9.8 -40.8

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research:@nikolasprasetia-@her1en) RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia – (021) – 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776



ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2015 HIGH / LOW

.N225

.KS200

.HSI

.DJI

/.SPX

/.SSEC

RECORD HIGH

38915.87 (29/Dec/89)

295.51 (03/May/11)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07)

18351.36 (19/May/2015)

2134.72 (20/May/2015)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07)

2014 HIGH

18030.83

272.83

25362.98

18103.45

2093.55

3239.35660

2015 HIGH

20952.71 (24/Jun/2015)

275.11 (24/Apr/2015)

28588.52 (27/Apr/2015)

18351.36 (19/May/2015)

2134.72 (20/May/2015)

5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015)

2015 LOW

16592.57 (16/Jan/2015)

217.52 (24/Aug/2015)

20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15370.33 (24/Aug/2015)

1867.01 (24/Aug/2015)

2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015)

2014 LOW

13885.11

239.43

21137.61

15340.69

1737.92

1974.38240

RECORD LOW

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

31.96 (16/Jun/98)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

388.20 (17/Jan/55)

132.93 (23/Nov./82)

325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 02 Desember 2015 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=

17729.68 2079.51 5123.222 123.24 1162.01

CHANGE

158.67 / 0.89% 23.12 / 1.10% 33.084 / 0.64% 0.39 / 0.32% 7.32 / 0.63%

CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)


19938.13 246.60 22479.69 3536.80060 40.10

CHANGE

74.27/0.37% 2.10/0.84% 98.34/0.44% 80.49210/2.33% 1.75/4.18%



SSIamZ5 (Nikkei December Futures) Last Trading Date: 10 Dec. 2015 INTRADAY CHART

DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic

RSI-14 : 63.68

Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS EMA 20 : 19689

Mom-14 :

WMA 55 : 19266

Daily Trend :

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

02 Dec SSIpmZ5 02 Dec SSIamZ5 01 Dec SSIpmZ5 01 Dec SSIamZ5 30 Nov SSIpmZ5 30 Nov SSIamZ5 27 Nov SSIpmZ5 27 Nov SSIamZ5 26 Nov SSIpmZ5 26 Nov SSIamZ5

19965 19975 19995 19835 19775 19895 19825 20000 19955 19935

20000 19995 20015 20035 19890 19895 19895 20010 20020 20000

19950 19925 19955 19810 19730 19710 19790 19835 19925 19925

50 70 60 225 160 185 105 175 95 75

19980 19960 19975 20010 19785 19770 19870 19850 20005 19940

--19960 --20010 --19770 --19850 --19940

20 50 35 240 15 80 20 90 65 90

0.10 2.33 0.17 1.21 0.08 0.40 0.10 0.45 0.33 2.95

13899 37175 20213 57989 17140 48024 10901 37527 10978 37852

WEEKLY

DECEMBER

NOVEMBER

2015

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

20035 (01/Dec)

19710 (29/Nov)

20035 (01/Dec)

19810 (01/Dec)

20035 (23/Nov)

18625 (02/Nov)

20950 (24/Jun)

16530 (14/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

Tertahan di bawah level 20000 dengan indeks bergerak di area rectangle 19710 – 20050. Kondisi RSI yang berada di sekitar zona overbought berpotensi picu reversal selama area 20000 – 20050 efektif. (Research – @ErwinRiset)

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

20680

High 18/Aug/2015

20565

High 19/Aug/2015

20340

High 20/Aug/2015

20070

High 21/Aug/2015

19710

Horizontal support

19630

Pivot line on 1-H chart

19495

Reaction low on 1-H chart

19235

Reaction low on 1-D chart

BUY

19930

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

19830 20070

TARGET RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia – (021) – 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776

20210



KSZ5 (Kospi December Futures) Exp. Date: 10 Dec. 2015 INTRADAY CHART

DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS EMA 20 : 246.90 WMA 55 : 246.83

Mom-14 :

RSI-14 : 49.26

Reuters Graphic

Daily Trend :

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

02 Dec

248.50

248.75

246.80

1.95

246.80

246.80

1.70

0.68

107194

01 Dec

245.60

249.00

245.55

3.45

248.50

248.50

3.65

1.49

151842

30 Nov

248.70

248.80

243.85

4.95

244.85

244.85

4.85

1.94

178539

27 Nov

250.50

250.90

249.70

1.20

249.70

249.70

0.60

0.24

73669

26 Nov

247.60

250.60

247.50

3.10

250.30

250.30

2.95

2.95

101212

WEEKLY

DECEMBER

NOVEMBER

2015

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

249.00 (01/Dec)

243.85 (30/Nov)

249.00 (01/Dec)

245.55 (01/Dec)

254.30 (04/Nov)

239.55 (16/Nov)

276.25 (24/Apr)

216.90 (24/Aug)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE Area pivot line di 248.80 (1-H chart) efektif meredam rebound, memicu reversal ke area support 243.85. Waspadai area trendline support di sekitar 245 pada 1-D chart untuk kemungkinan koreksi terbatas. (Research – @ErwinRiset)

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

255.90

High 03/Jul/2015

254.30

Peak level on 1-D chart

252.90

Reaction high on 1-H chart

250.90


243.85


241.10


239.55

Bottom level

237.20


BUY

----

SELL

247.50

STOP LOSS

248.50

TARGET RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia – (021) – 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776

245.75 244.00



HSIZ5 (Hang Seng December Futures) Exp. Date: 30 Dec. 2015 INTRADAY CHART

DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic

Reuters Graphic

RSI-14 : 51.80

Mom-14 :

DAILY CHART INDICATORS EMA 20 : 22446 WMA 55 : 22491

% CHANGE

VOLUME

95

0.42

121230

22388

479

2.19

134485

21909

21909

90

0.41

132076

618

21999

21999

528

2.34

127536

402

22212

22211

313

1.39

14234

620

22525

22525

31

0.14

107246

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

02 Dec (HSIZ5)

22500

22576

22362

214

22483

22483

01 Dec (HSIZ5)

22204

22489

22098

391

22388

30 Nov (HSIZ5)

22055

22167

21856

311

27 Nov (HSIZ5)

22588

22588

21970

27 Nov

22574

22592

22190

26 Nov

22613

23055

22435

WEEKLY

Daily Trend :

NOVEMBER

CHANGE

OCTOBER

2015

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

22576 (02/Dec)

21856 (30/Nov)

22576 (02/Dec)

22098 (01/Dec)

23419 (26/Oct)

21105 (02/Oct)

28621 (27/Apr)

20366 (08/Sept)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE Reli tertahan di sekitar 22500, dan jika ini berlanjut, maka koreksi berkembang untuk uji kembali area 22000 – 21856. Sedangkan jika area 22500 – 22600 dapat dipecahkan, maka reli berkembang untuk uji area upperline dari formasi symmetrical triangle pada 1-D chart di sekitar 22800. (Research – @ErwinRiset)

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

23538

Peak level

23347


23055

Horizontal resistance on 1-H chart

22658


21856

Low 30/Nov/2015

21700

Horizontal support on 1-H chart

21239


20821

Low 02/Oct/2015

BUY

----

SELL

22495

STOP LOSS

22595

TARGET


22220 22065

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

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