L A P O R A N H A R I A N

13 Januari, 2015

L A P O R A N H A R I A N

RISET

Penutupan Americas INDU Index SPX Index CCMP Index IBOV Index

Prb

%Prb

%Ytd

P/E

17,640.84 2,028.26 4,664.71 48,139.74

-96.53 -16.55 -39.359 -700.51

-0.54 -0.81 -0.84 -1.43

(1.02) (1.49) (1.51) (3.73)

15.75 17.95 40.85 15.23

6,501.42 4,228.24 10,115.49 9,797.50 18,349.15 418.41 9,152.97

0.28 49.17 -23.13 78.5 172.06 2.82 47.27

0.00 1.18 -0.23 0.81 0.95 0.68 0.52

(0.98) (1.04) 8.78 (4.69) (3.49) (1.43) 1.89

18.59 25.28 4.07 20.59 #N/A N/A 21.07 21.10

16,848.29 24,026.46 3,229.32 9,193.63 1,913.57 5,187.93 1,531.21 7,358.36 27,585.27

-349.44 106.51 -56.096 15.33 -7.38 -28.732 1.79 -44.36 126.89

-2.03 0.45 -1.71 0.17 -0.38 -0.55 0.12 -0.60 0.46

(3.45) 1.79 (0.17) (1.22) (0.11) (0.75) 2.24 1.77 0.31

20.36 10.16 15.45 15.23 #N/A N/A 20.88 16.87 21.15 19.27

6.45

0.19

(0.60)

13.57

Terakhir Sebelumnya 5,189.95 5,216.79 4,801.00 7,505.65 4,029.00 5,928.37 839.20 789.85

%Prb -0.51 -36.03 -32.04 6.25

EMEA UKX Index CAC Index RTSSTD Index IBEX Index FTSEMIB Index AEX Index SMI Index

Asia / Pacific NKY Index HSI Index SHCOMP Index TWSE Index KOSPI Index JCI Index SET Index PCOMP Index SENSEX Index FSSTI Index

3,344.89

Deskripsi Kapitalisasi Pasar (IDR Triliun) Volume Transaksi (Juta Saham) Nilai Transaksi (IDR Juta) Nilai/ saham (IDR) Net Asing (IDR Juta)

(67,909.38)

895,105.75

-107.59

Komoditas Nikel/Nickel (US$/Ton) Tembaga/Copper (US$/Ton) Timah/Tins (US$/Ton) Minyak/Oil (US$/BBL) (*) Gas (US$/MMBTU) Batu Bara/Coal (US$/Ton) (**) Emas/Gold (USD/OZ) CPO PALMROTT(USD/ton) CPO MALAYSIA(RM/ton)

Terakhir Sebelumnya 15,100.00 15,300.00 6,017.00 6,090.00 19,900.00 19,550.00 46.07 48.36 6.36 6.66 61.80 62.39 1,232.60 1,233.26 730.00 725.00 2,363.00 2,348.00

%Prb -1.31 -1.20 1.79 -4.74 -4.50 -0.96 -0.05 0.69 0.64

PERKIRAAN PASAR HARI INI

IHSG Diperkirakan Melemah

Cenderung

No 1 2 3 4 5

Stock BBRI IJ BBCA IJ SIAP IJ TLKM IJ BMRI IJ

Top Value (IDR) 212,067,100,000 211,087,500,000 193,260,700,000 176,374,300,000 144,698,400,000

No 1 2 3 4 5

Stock TRAM IJ SIAP IJ CPRO IJ BUMI IJ BKSL IJ

Top Volume (Shares) 472,161,100.00 469,996,500.00 356,498,100.00 294,229,700.00 200,204,900.00

No 1 2 3 4 5

Top Gainers HDTX IJ MFMI IJ SCBD IJ INPP IJ PJAA IJ

% change 25 25 21.94 19.05 17.73

No 1 2 3 4 5

Top Losers GEMA IJ MERK IJ BTON IJ INVS IJ HOME IJ

% change -8.82 -8.75 -8.26 -8 -7.47

No Leading Movers 1 BBCA IJ 2 BMTR IJ 3 SCBD IJ 4 BIRD IJ 5 SMGR IJ

% change 0.58 7.79 21.94 4.75 1.27

No Lagging Movers 1 UNVR IJ 2 BMRI IJ 3 BBRI IJ 4 ICBP IJ 5 TLKM IJ

% change -3.39 -2.70 -2.29 -3.47 -0.87 14,990

5,000

12,310

4,500

9,630

(*) WTI Cushing

4,000

6,950

(**) McCloskey Newscatle

3,500

4,270

ADR Stocks Saham Telkom

Bloomberg Code Kode TLK US

Terakhir (US$) Last (US$) #N/A

Terakhir % Konversi (Rp) Prb (Rp) %Change Conv (Rp) Last (Rp) -0.22 14,192.41 #N/A

3,000 1-Jan

Daily Report dapat dilihat di website BNI Securities : www.bnisecurities.co.id

1,590 11-Mar

20-May Volume (RHS) (Bn Shares)

29-Jul JCI (LHS)

Laporan Harian ‐ 13 Januari, 2015

P E R K I R A A N P A S A R H A R I I N I IHSG Diperkirakan Cenderung Melemah

Bursa Amerika (12/1) ditutup melemah, di mana pelemahan dipimpin NASDAQ (‐0,84%, 4.664,71), disusul S&P 500 dan Dow Jones. Hal ini disebabkan oleh turunnya harga saham emiten berbasis energi dan teknologi, respon negatif atas jatuhnya data US wages, dan keprihatinan atas ekonomi Eropa. Harga minyak dunia masih menjadi faktor negatif yang menyeret saham berbasis energi. Pada perdagangan kemarin, harga minyak dunia ditutup pada level USD45,73/bbl (‐0,74%), sedangkan emas ditutup pada USD 1.231,4/try ons (‐0,11%). Regional Eropa akhirnya kembali rebound setelah melemah dalam beberapa hari terakhir. Indeks DAX menguat 1,38% ke level 9.781,9, disusul CAC40 yang menguat 1,18% ke level 4,228.24. Beberapa emiten yang diuntungkan dengan penurunan minyak dunia, seperti penerbangan dan otomotif, menjadi penggerak indeks Eropa. Di bursa Asia, indeks Jepang ditutup dalam rangka libur nasional, dan pada pagi hari ini dibuka melemah. Sedangkan indeks Shanghai melemah 1,71% ke level 3.229,32, akibat turunnya saham‐saham big cap serta antisipasi data ekspor/impor yang diumumkan hari ini. Di sisi lain, indeks Hang Seng menguat ke level 24.026,46 (+0,45%). IHSG ditutup melemah 0,55% ke level 5.187,93 pada perdagangan Senin (12/1) kemarin. Saham konsumer menurun 1,7%, disusul sektor finansial yang turun 1%. Hingga Senin kemarin, asing masih membukukan net buy sebesar IDR 827.19 milyar. Pada pasar valuta asing, rupiah kembali menguat terhadap USD ke level IDR 12.568. Pada hari ini, indeks diperkirakan cenderung melemah, meskipun memiliki potensi penguatan terbatas. Beberapa faktor eksternal, seperti data perekonomian Cina, dapat mempengaruhi pergerakan indeks hari ini. Diperkirakan, indeks bergerak pada kisaran 5.160‐5.210, dengan saham rekomendas: BBRI,MPPA,SMGR,PTBA,WSKT,MAIN,BISI,EXCL. Analyst: Richard Jerry ([email protected])

2


R I N G K A S A N B E R I T A •

Bank persero PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) akan melakukan rights issue total Rp 9 triliun, menurut keterangan Menteri Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) Rini Soemarno dalam sebuah kunjungan kerja di Pindad, Bandung, Senin lalu. Hal ini dilakukan seiring dengan upaya pemerintah melakukan ekspansi pembiayaan dari infrastruktur.

•

BW Plantation bangun empat pabrik untuk tingkatkan kapasitas. Pembangunan pabrik tersebut akan dibiayai anggaran belanja modal tahun ini sebesar Rp 1,2 triliun.

•

Nusa Konstruksi targetkan pendapatan tumbuh 15%. Kontrak pembangunan proyek properti memang menjadi andalan Nusa Konstruksi sejak beberapa tahun terakhir.

•

Surya Semesta siapkan belanja modal Rp 1,7 triliun di 2015. Perusahaan mengalokasikan capex sekitar Rp 400 miliar untuk mengakuisisi lahan di Subang pada tahun ini.

•

Ekspansi PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (SMGR), emiten BUMN semen, ke Myanmar berpotensi kembali batal terealisasi tahun ini. Menurut direksi perseroan, kondisi itu terjadi antara lain karena kendala skema kerjasama dan urusan legal yang belum mencapai kesepakatan dengan calon mitra.

•

Di bulan Desember 2014, PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) mengeluarkan total biaya eksplorasi preliminary sebesar Rp1 miliar.

•

PT Bank Yudha Bhakti Tbk akan mencatatkan sahamnya di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) dengan harga penawaran umum perdana sebesar Rp115 per saham.

•

PT Jaya Real Property Tbk (JRPT) telah menjual kembali 141.900.000 lembar saham yang merupakan sebagian dari treasury stock (saham hasil pembelian kembali) yang dimiliki oleh perseroan.

•

PT Jaya Agra Wattie Tbk (JAWA) masih menyimpan dana sisa IPO sebesar Rp17.638.935.000 hingga akhir Desember 2014. Sekretaris Perusahaan Perseroan Bambang Ibrahim menyebutkan bahwa perseroan meraup dana IPO pada April 2011 sebesar Rp548.675.136.000.

•

PT Pertamina (Persero) Tbk menyatakan masih mengkaji investasi Perseroan pada awal tahun ini, melalui rencana menerbitkan global bond guna membayar utang.

•

Harga anak ayam atau day old chicken (DOC) menurun. Kondisi tersebut telah terjadi sejak November 2014. Harga DOC bahkan sempat Rp 500 per ekor. Karena itu, PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN) mengurangi produksi DOC dari 45 juta ekor menjadi 15 juta ekor per minggu. Semua perusahaan ternak ayam pasti akan memangkas produksi agar tidak merugi, ungkap Desianto Budiman, Vice President Feed Technology CPIN.

•

Source : Investor Daily, Kontan, Indonesia Finance Today, Inilah, Viva News

3


A N A L Y S T S T A R G E T P R I C E Market Capitalization Banking BBCA IJ Equity BBNI IJ Equity BBRI IJ Equity BMRI IJ Equity Average

EPS Growth PER 1 Year FY15F

PBV FY15F

PEG DER (x) ROE (%) Ratio

Rec

TP (Rp/share)

Total Return 1 Year in 2013

% of Free Float Shares

255,795,728,750,000 81,774,358,577,100 215,238,438,450,000 210,583,333,303,250

10.50 18.00 15.20 14.50 14.55

15.02 8.10 8.66 9.43 10.30

4.20 1.79 2.72 2.41 2.78

1.43 0.45 0.57 0.65 0.78

0.08 0.10 0.05 0.07 0.08

17.00 24.00 35.00 22.20 24.55

BUY BUY BUY BUY

14,500 7,800 14,000 13,000

1.11 7.43 10.52 2.16 5.30

50.83 39.78 43.25 40.00

92,491 97,870 3,974 17,471 52,952

11.31 11.22 16.05 11.19 12.44

13.96 13.67 8.93 15.36 12.98

2.97 3.40 1.35 2.06 2.44

1.24 1.22 0.56 1.37 1.10

0.01 0.20 0.02 0.42 0.16

21.28 24.88 15.07 13.39 18.65

BUY BUY HOLD HOLD

27,500 18,500 420 2,350

30.43 24.22 7.28 ‐9.58 20.64

35.97 48.99 23.76 19.36

Telecommunication EXCL IJ Equity TLKM IJ Equity Average

38,575,897,814,840 227,303,991,882,000

15.80 10.50 13.15

29.39 9.24 19.31

2.53 3.81 3.17

1.86 0.88 1.37

1.08 0.10 0.59

7.20 16.20 11.70

BUY BUY

5,400 3,250

‐12.77 22.01 4.62

33.52 48.81

Transportation GIAA IJ Equity TAXI IJ Equity Average

10,912,960,072,000 3,132,580,000,000

8.50 13.22 10.86

11.05 20.89 15.97

0.83 3.95 2.39

1.30 1.58 1.44

0.20 1.20 0.70

8.20 18.91 13.56

HOLD BUY

500 1,413

‐25.54 106.05 40.26

27.97 49.00

282,373 8,946 145,659

9.83 44.88 27.36

12.79 29.73 21.26

2.68 1.46 2.07

1.30 0.66 0.98

0.77 2.13 1.45

20.94 10.58 15.76

HOLD HOLD

7,750 3,500

15.22 ‐29.51 ‐2.26

49.91 10.46

Cement INTP IJ Equity SMGR IJ Equity SMBR IJ Equity SMCB IJ Equity Average

Automotive ASII IJ Equity IMAS IJ Equity Average

4


A N A L Y S T S T A R G E T P R I C E Market Capitalization


PBV FY15F


Rec

TP (Rp/share)



Agriculture AALI IJ Equity BWPT IJ Equity LSIP IJ Equity SGRO IJ Equity SIMP IJ Equity SMAR IJ Equity Average

40,825,264,125,000 6,013,779,803,750 15,419,672,560,900 4,025,700,000,000 14,630,086,750,000 19,818,134,225,400

11.49 20.18 13.85 1.09 18.37 25.53 15.09

13.82 2.81 12.40 11.47 12.42 11.48 10.73

2.76 0.61 1.65 1.30 0.67 3.64 1.77

1.20 0.14 0.90 10.52 0.68 0.45 2.31

0.20 2.50 0.15 1.00 0.76 3.04 1.28

19.96 21.64 13.34 11.29 5.36 31.70 17.22

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY

31,250 835 2,330 2,660 980 9,975

47.06 2.84 23.59 0.77 ‐6.46 19.91 14.62

20.32 37.15 40.52 32.95 21.60 2.80

Metal ANTM IJ Equity INCO IJ Equity TINS IJ Equity Average

9,681,536,900,000 25,337,663,736,000 6,895,237,400,000

n.a 33.49 26.39 10.88

4.98 14.84 8.95 28.44

0.64 1.66 1.09 1.26

n.a 0.44 0.34 2.49

0.54 0.33 0.80 0.75

12.92 11.18 12.19 4.91

HOLD BUY BUY

1,100 4,910 1,395

‐16.70 ‐3.55 ‐3.29 ‐7.85

34.99 20.49 35.00

36,943,786,110,000

12.77 ‐45.79 ‐5.38 2.86 14.33 ‐4.24

9.72 0.81 28.39 7.44 17.90 12.85

0.80 4.83 0.98 1.50 3.50 2.32

0.76 ‐0.02 ‐5.28 2.60 1.25 ‐0.14

0.64 32.57 0.01 0.39 0.74 6.87

8.21

BUY

1,315

‐38.62

40.92

3.45 20.12 19.45 12.81

SELL HOLD BUY

1,195 18,950 16,850

‐56.30 ‐28.99 ‐37.08 ‐40.25

29.51 34.99 29.98

10.65 15.34 15.72 14.05 10.25 40.06 12.33 16.91

35.74 19.01 31.60 23.89 22.00 48.81 21.58 28.95

39.20 2.74 5.19 7.18 3.10 7.94 2.98 9.76

2.71 2.04 2.01 1.70 1.22 1.22 1.75 1.81

0.26 0.54 0.10 1.12 0.89 0.45 0.31 0.52

99.40 13.63 20.60 31.00 16.61 21.50 15.80 31.22

BUY BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY HOLD

34,250 7,600 11,800 30,314 3,150 1,450 60,000

27.83 8.79 37.25 57.68 48.06 4.01 11.06 27.81

15.01 49.92 19.47 66.93 53.37 29.25 23.53

Mining ADRO IJ Equity BUMI IJ Equity HRUM IJ Equity ITMG IJ Equity PTBA IJ Equity Average Consumer UNVR IJ Equity INDF IJ Equity ICBP IJ Equity MYOR IJ Equity AISA IJ Equity ROTI IJ Equity GGRM IJ Equity Average

5,704,638,200,000 29,858,268,125,000 25,633,466,831,250

227,180,000,000,000 59,932,985,500,000 58,467,398,600,000 26,206,731,039,500 6,529,800,000,000 7,060,452,000,000 101,976,930,200,000

Market Capitalization


PBV FY14F


Rec

TP (Rp/share)



Pharmaceutical KLBF IJ Equity KAEF IJ Equity Average

75,700,795,343,450 5,286,580,000,000

14.90 19.40 17.40

32.65 21.16 26.90

8.65 2.82 5.74

1.92 1.09 1.61

0.03 0.02 0.02

26.30 12.40 19.35

HOLD HOLD

1,885 1,450

29.77 ‐23.30 3.23

43.37 9.97

Retail RALS IJ Equity MAPI IJ Equity Average

8,272,480,000,000 17,420,000,000,000

9.32 20.10 14.71

28.32 26.60 66.82

3.10 4.26 3.68

3.04 5.24 4.14

0.00 0.91 0.46

12.29 13.20 14.85

HOLD HOLD

830 5,370

22.72 ‐3.62 9.55

40.46 44.00

Poultry CPIN IJ Equity JPFA IJ Equity MAIN IJ Equity Average

62,148,420,000,000 11,460,061,646,000 3,823,785,000,000

17.55 13.58 16.02 15.72

20.72 14.54 16.28 17.18

6.74 3.19 6.65 5.53

1.18 1.07 1.02 1.09

32.42 59.99 55.23 49.21

19.85 3.19 1.71 8.25

BUY BUY BUY

5,110 1,550 3,000

‐3.30 1.32 26.18 8.06

44.47 42.49 44.07

5


RESEARCH TEAM Research Division

: +62 21 25543946

Fax No

: +62 21 57935831

E‐mail

: [email protected]

Norico Gaman

ext. 3934 [email protected]

Head of Research

Investment Strategy

Andri Zakarias


Technical Analyst

Market Strategy, Commodities, Currency, Bond & Stocks

Heru Irvansyah


Economist

I Made Adi Saputra


Fixed Income Analyst

Thendra Crisnanda


Analyst

Automotive, Construction, Property

Yasmin Soulisa


Analyst

Cement, Infrastructure,

Coal Mining, Metal Mining, Plantation, Oil & Gas

Ankga Adiwirasta

ext. 3986 [email protected] Analyst

Consumer Goods, Pharmaceutical, Retail

Richard Jerry


Analyst

Banking, Telecommunication

Dessy Lapagu


Research Assistant

Poultry

Venia Allani Meissalina


Research Assistant

Thennesia Debora


Research Assistant

Indah Lestari


Research Assistant

Transportation

EQUITY TEAM

: +62 21 25543946

Fax No

: +62 21 57935831

CM

Norico Gaman


Equity Division Head (PJS)

Jufrani Amsal


Channel Distribution Division Head

Entis Sutisman


Head of Local Institution

Chandrawati


Head of HO Retail

Yulinda


Institutional Sales

6


MAIN OFFICE ‐ JAKARTA PT BNI SECURITIES Sudirman Plaza, Indofood Tower 16th Floor, Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 76‐78 Jakarta 12910, Indonesia Phone: (62‐21) 25543946 (Hunting) Fax: (62‐21) 57935831 e‐mail: [email protected] (General) Website: http://www.bnisecurities.co.id JAKARTA – PT BNI Securities Sudirman Plaza Indofood Tower Lt.16 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 76‐78 Jakarta 12910 Phone: (62‐21) 25543946 Fax: (62‐21) 57935831 e‐mail: [email protected] JAKARTA ‐ Mangga Dua Pertokoan Mangga Dua Blok E4 No. 7 Jl. Mangga Dua Raya, Jakarta Utara Phone: (62‐21) 6123804‐5,62203890 Fax: (62‐21) 6123806 e‐mail: [email protected] JAKARTA ‐ Puri Indah Ruko Puri Kencana Blok K6 ‐ 2K Lt.2 Puri Kembangan, Jakarta Barat Phone: (62‐21) 58357464 Fax: (62‐21) 58357465 e‐mail: [email protected] JAKARTA ‐ Central Park Central Park, Office Tower Podomoro City Jl. Letjen S. Parman Kav 28, Tanjung Duren Selatan, Grogol Petamburan Phone: (62‐21) 29034215 Fax: (62‐21) 29034216 email: [email protected] BANDUNG Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan 3 Bandung ‐ 40117 Phone: (62‐22) 4213375 Fax: (62‐22) 4220604 e‐mail: [email protected] YOGYAKARTA Jl. Laksda Adisucipto 137, Yogyakarta ‐ 55282 Phone: (62‐274) 581001‐584032 Fax: (62‐274) 584023 e‐mail: [email protected] SOLO Jl. Honggo Wongso No. 24, Surakarta Phone: (62‐271) 729667, 730525 Fax: (62‐271) 729668 e‐mail: [email protected] SURABAYA Jl. Gubernur Suryo No. 36, Surabaya Phone: (62‐31) 5320912 Fax: (62‐31) 5318425 e‐mail: [email protected]

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7

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