STRATEGI INVESTASI
MENGAPA BERINVESTASI? Untuk melindungi kekayaan (aset) terhadap pengaruh inflasi Untuk mendapatkan keuntungan yang lebih besar dimasa yang akan datang Untuk mengantisipasi ketidakpastian pendapatan dimasa yang akan datang
Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan DEPARTEMEN KEUANGAN REPUBLIK INDONESIA
COMMON MISCONCEPTION
KEMANA BERINVESTASI?
Investasi pada saham hampir sama dengan judi Efek Pendapatan Tetap (obligasi) memiliki pendapatan yang tetap
Physical Assets
Financial Assets
Produk reksa dana adalah produk bank Produk reksa dana mirip dengan deposito
Land Property
Vehicles Precious metals
Capital market
Money market
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INVESTASI DI PASAR UANG Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI) Deposito Berjangka (Time Deposits)
INVESTASI DI PASAR MODAL Saham (Stocks) Obligasi (Bonds) Reksa Dana (Investment Funds)
Commercial Papers Promissory Notes Obligasi yang jatuh tempo kurang dari 1 (satu) tahun
Derivatives
RISK/RETURN TRADEOFF
RISK/RETURN TRADEOFF
Risk / Return Characteristics
Low Return High Risk High Potential Return
Return
Return
Saham Low Risk
Obligasi Reksa Dana Deposito
Standard Deviation (Risk)
Risk
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HOW INVESTORS CAN MANAGE RISKS
RISK FROM AN INVESTORS PERSPECTIVE Equities Issuer Specific Risk
Don’t put all eggs in one basket, i.e. diversify
Take a long-term view
Legal Risk
Do not market time, try dollar cost averaging instead
Political risk
Choose the level of risk they are comfortable with
FX risk
Economic Risk
Business Risk
Credit Risk
Liquidity Risk
Operational Risk
Bonds and Cash
Investors
Market Risk
Reksa Dana
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DIVERSIFICATION $1,500
$1,500
Mid-1970s Recession Diversified Portfolio Stocks
$500 Dec 1972
1987 Market Crash Diversified Portfolio Stocks
$1,149 $1,014
$1,000
TIPE-TIPE INVESTOR $1,324
$1,227
$1,000
Conservative Investors Moderate Investors Aggressive Investors
$500 Dec 1973
Dec 1974
Jun 1976
Jun 1987
Diversified Portfolio: 35% stocks, 40% bonds, 25% Treasury bills. Hypothetical value of $1,000 invested at month-end December 1972 and June 1987, respectively
Jun 1988
Jun 1989
Dec 1990
Source: Ibbotson Associates.
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SEBELUM BERINVENTASI…
STRATEGI INVESTASI
Tujuan investasi 9 9 9 9
Keamanan Dana Keamanan Dana dan Pendapatan Pendapatan dan Pertumbuhan Pertumbuhan
Jangka waktu investasi
Tingkat risiko yang sanggup ditanggung
Keadaan keuangan
Pengetahuan 9 9
Buy and Hold Strategy Active Strategy
Tentang investasi secara umum Tentang produk yang akan dibeli
BUY AND HOLD
BUY AND HOLD
Conservative Investors
Moderate Investors
Stock 30% Bond 40%
Money Market 30%
Stock 50%
Bond 30%
Money Market 20%
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ACTIVE STRATEGY
BUY AND HOLD
Aggressive Investors
Assets Allocation (Where) Bond 20%
Securities Selection (Which) Market Timing (When)
Money Market 10% Stock 70%
MAKING THE RIGHT ASSETS ALLOCATION DECISION
ASSETS ALLOCATION
Stock
Determinants of Portfolio Performance 100% 90% 80%
Agg
70% 60% 50%
Mod
94%
40% 30%
Con
20% 10% 0%
4% Securities Selection
2% Asset Allocation
Market Timing
0
20
40
60
80
100
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ASSETS ALLOCATION
ASSETS ALLOCATION
Bond
Agg
Money Market
Agg
Mod
Mod
Con
Con
0
20
40
60
80
100
SECURITIES SELECTION
0
Short-term vs. long term bonds Fixed rate vs. variable rate
40
60
80
100
BIG CAP VS SMALL CAP
Big cap vs. small cap stocks Growth vs. value stocks
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Focus Company Characteristics
BIG CAP
SMALL CAP
Emphasis on large and well-established companies
Emphasis on small, emerging, and start-up companies
Reliable sales and dividends
Sales and earnings fluctuate, dividends are minor
Risks
Usually diversified, so risk is low
Un-diversified, so volatility of earnings and risk is high
Return
Moderate returns that include dividends
No dividends but potentially high or low capital appreciation
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GROWTH VS VALUE GROWTH Focus Company Characteristics Risks Return
Emphasis on growing companies
VALUE Emphasis on companies whose market value are low relative to earnings, dividends, or assets
High P/E ratio
Low P/E ratio
Tend to be more volatile
Tend to be less volatile
High cap appreciation with little or no dividends
Moderate or low capital appreciations with high dividends
LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
Higher
Lower
Price Sensitivity
FIXED RATE VS VARIABLE RATE
Sensitivity to interest rate
LONG TERM VS SHORT TERM BOND
Fixed
Variable
Higher
Lower
VALUASI OBLIGASI 4
Analisa berdasarkan prinsip Time Value of Money (TVM)
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Harga obligasi: Vb = Σ
INT
+
(1 + kd)t
M (1 + kd)N
Kd = imbal hasil yang diharapkan investor N
= lama jatuh tempo obligasi
INT = jumlah pembayaran bunga M
= nilai pari obligasi
t
= 1 sampai dengan N
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CONTOH SOAL
MARKET TIMING
Perusahaan XYZ menerbitkan obligasi sebesar Rp. 100 milyar dengan tingkat bunga tetap 12% pertahun dan jatuh tempo dalam 3 tahun. Tingkat imbal hasil yang diharapkan investor atas obligasi ini adalah 10%. Berapakah harga pasar obligasi tersebut?
Vb =
12 M (1 +
=
12 M
+
10%)1
(1 +
+
10%)2
12 M (1 +
10%)3
100 M
+
(1 + 10%)3
Rp. 104.973.703.982 atau 104.97%
Mengapa pasar bisa naik turun? Pasar akan naik apabila banyak investor yang menempatkan dananya di pasar modal Pasar akan turun apabila banyak investor yang menarik dananya dari pasar modal
MARKET CYCLE
Big cap growth stocks Long term bonds
Recession
Stagflation
Small cap growth stocks Intermediate bonds
EARLY RECOVERY Inflasi rendah atau dalam trend yang menurun Ekonomi berkembang tapi belum membawa pengaruh terhadap naiknya inflasi
Early Recovery 4
1
3
2
Investasi di: Late Recovery
Small cap growth stocks Intermediate bonds
Big cap value stocks Short term bonds
Small cap value stocks Intermediate bonds
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STAGFLATION
LATE RECOVERY
Inflasi mulai bergerak naik
Inflasi naik dengan tajam
Ekonomi berkembang pesat
Ekonomi mulai bergerak lambat
Investasi di:
Investasi di:
Small cap value stocks
Large cap value stocks
Intermediate term bonds
Short term bonds
RECESSION
PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION FOR EACH STAGE Conservative
Moderate
Aggressive
Inflasi menurun tajam Ekonomi masih bergerak sangat lambat
Investasi di: Large cap growth stocks Long Term bonds
Early Recovery
50% stocks 40% bonds 10% cash
70% stocks 25% bonds 5% cash
90% stocks 10% bonds 0% cash
Late Recovery
30% stocks 20% bonds 50% cash
50% stocks 10% bonds 40% cash
70% stocks 0% bonds 30% cash
Stagflation
10% stocks 10% bonds 80% cash
30% stocks 25% bonds 45% cash
50% stocks 10% bonds 40% cash
Recession
15% stocks 65% bonds 20% cash
40% stocks 45% bonds 15% cash
60% stocks 30% bonds 10% cash
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MARKET TIMING & VOLATILITY • 150%
Reduction of Risk over Time — 1926-2002
1-Year Holding Periods 5-Year Holding Periods 20-Year Holding Periods Compound Annual Return
125% 100%
Definisi
75% 50% 25%
12.1%
DOLLAR COST AVERAGING
5.5%
10.2%
3.8%
Menempatkan dana secara bertahap pada suatu portofolio untuk menghindari risiko fluktuasi harga dalam jangka pendek
0%
Tujuan
-25% -50% -75%
Small Company Stocks
Large Company Stocks
Government Bonds
Treasury Bills
Each bar shows the range of compound annual returns for each asset class over the period 1926-2002
Mengurangi risiko investasi Mendapatkan hasil yang lebih baik
Source: IbbotsonAssociates
DOLLAR COST AVERAGING NAB
Penempatan Dana
Jumlah UP
1.000
10.000.000
10.000
500
0
0
500 x 10.000
= 5.000.000
750
0
0
750 x 10.000
= 7.500.000
STRATEGI INVESTASI
Hasil Investasi 1.000 x 10.000 = 10.000.000
NAB
Penempatan Dana
Jumlah UP
1.000
4.000.000
4.000
1.000 x 4.000 = 4.000.000
Hasil Investasi
500
3.000.000
6.000
500 x 10.000
= 5.000.000
750
3.000.000
4.000
750 x 14.000
= 10.500.000
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