De politiek houdt het spannend Op naar het volgende reddingsplan?
Dimitry Fleming Economisch Bureau 1 december 2011
Herstel met verschillende snelheden Economische groei (bbp, volume) 140 China
130
India
120 Braz.
110
Z-Ko.
100
VS EZ
90 80
Japan Index (basis = K1.08)
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
1
Terugval van het goederenvervoer Zee 100
9
Goederenoverslag Rotterdam
90
7
Lucht
80
5
Weg
3
Enquête Transport & Logistiek Nederland
70
Index (basis = K2.08)
60 2008
Vrachtvervoer Schiphol
1 2009
2010
2011 2
Vertrouwen consumenten verdampt Consumentenvertrouwen 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
3
Wat is het probleem van de euro? Hoe de eurocrisis te bezweren? Is de euro het allemaal waard?
4
Schuld/tekort Eurozone lager dan VS, VK, JP Eurozone is zo sterk als de zwakste schakel Begrotingstekort (% bbp) -10% IE US
-9%
JP
UK
-8% GR
-7%
ES FR
-6%
PT
-5% -4%
EZ NL
AT
BE
IT
-3% -2% 25%
Raming 2011
DE
50%
75%
100%
125%
Staatsschuld (netto, % bbp) 5
Wat is het probleem van de euro? Stevig fundament ontbreekt
Vrij verkeer van kapitaal
Arbeidsmobiliteit
Loon & prijs flexibiliteit
Automatisch solidariteitsmechanisme
Gemeenschappelijke cultuur / taal
6
Verlies concurrentiekracht Zuid-Europa Arbeidskosten (per eenheid product) in de industrie 2000 = 100
180
GRI
160
ITA
140 SPA
120
POR NL
100
DUI
80 IER
60 00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
7
Wat is het probleem van de euro? Hoe de eurocrisis te bezweren? Is de euro het allemaal waard?
8
Herstel concurrentiekracht niet eenvoudig
Mogelijke oplossing
Haalbaarheid
1.Devaluatie van de munt
• Niet mogelijk
2.Vertrek uit eurozone
• Financiële chaos
3.Loonsverlaging Zuid-Europa
• Verergert schuldproblemen
4.Loonsverhoging kernlanden
• Onbespreekbaar?
5.Structurele hervormingen
• Kost tijd
9
Hoe de eurocrisis te bezweren?
Medicijn 1. Losser monetair beleid & geleidelijker bezuinigen Korte
2. Schuldherstructurering ‘insolvabele’ eurolanden
termijn
3. Groter noodfonds (met ECB als achtervang, IMF) 4. Snelle herkapitalisatie van banken in problemen 5. Structurele hervormingen (arbeidsmarkt)
Lange termijn
6. Strenge (begrotings)regels + betere economische coördinatie 7. Gezamenlijke euro-obligaties + meer budgettaire integratie
10
Drie scenario's voor de eurocrisis The Good Grieken en Italianen herwinnen vertrouwen Vergroting noodfonds lukt alsnog Kortstondige economische dip The Bad Politiek onvoldoende besluitvaardig Rentes blijven stijgen Recessie en hulp ECB nodig voor stap vooruit The Ugly Eurozone valt uit elkaar Meerjarige depressie
11
Wat is het probleem van de euro? Hoe de eurocrisis te bezweren? Is de euro het allemaal waard?
12
Nederlands belang bij euro is groot (1/2) bbp ligt structureel 6-8% hoger door euro en interne markt Extra BBP per jaar dankzij de euro
€12 mrd Bron: NIESR
Goederenexport (in NL geproduceerd)
Dui, 21%
Overig, 26%
Banks GIPS, €430bn
11%
BRICs,Mutual 5% funds €45bn
Overig W-Eur, 37%
* In Nederland geproduceerde goederen, gecorrigeerd voor indirecte handel 13
Nederlands belang bij euro is groot (2/2) Financiële belangen in eurogebied…
...onderverdeeld naar landen en sectoren
Pensioenfondsen €236mrd Banken €430mrd Beleggings fondsen €45mrd Verzekeraars €114mrd
Data 30 juni 2011. Exclusief BFI’s. Bron: DNB, ING
Bron: DNB 14
Samenvattend
Meer weten? www.ing.nl/kennis 15
Houden van Holland Nederland heeft goede, sociaal-economische positie Nederland Bel, Dui, Fin, Fra, Lux, Oos
5.4
5.2
7.2% 7.9%
concurrentie- armoede kracht
79.7% 66.6% €32.916 €32.427
vertrouwen beschikbaar in inkomen anderen
54.7% 40.1%
sociaal gedrag
4.2%
6.5%
werkloosheid
16
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